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#1475634 - 09/11/2018 09:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Thunderstruck]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3356
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
The CHI 200 which is one of the leading indicies to determine the broader vertical circulations critical to ENSO is nowhere near coupled yet and has for the most part been more in the La Nina window of late than the El Nino with broader uplift and negative values over the Indian and Indonesian regions and downlift and positive values over the Americas. There are hints of a weakening on the models by the end of the month which will be interesting to see how that pans out but for now it aint there yet. The atmosphere is still front running the oceans for now.



So what impact does the CHI have on SSTs? One impact is the obvious influence on surface anomalies. And as I have done to death the trade winds seem to be mostly following the expected pattern of current SSTs. I think one limitation of the CHI

In the past I have sometimes thought there might be additional impacts on SST from MJO passage beyond what can be explained purely by trade winds. Changes in pressure will directly move ocean water up and down , and once it moves up and down something has to move sidewise somewhere to balance out, although I suspect these changes would be too small to matter. Also CHI is going to have implications for cloudiness, which will change the radiative balance. I'd suspect that generally increased cloudiness would result in cooling, but I'm not sure and maybe it would actually trap more heat. If increased cloudiness causes cooling, then the failure of cloudiness to increase along the equator so far would be resulting in additional surface warming.

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#1475635 - 09/11/2018 09:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
IRI Enso forecast https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook

Quote:

IRI ENSO Forecast
2018 November Quick Look
Published: November 8, 2018

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)



El Niño-level SSTs were observed in the October average, and the subsurface waters also continued to be warmer than average. However, the atmospheric variables showed mainly ENSO-neutral patterns, including the distribution of cloudiness/rainfall, sea level pressure and upper level winds. Only lower-level wind anomalies were weakly westerly in the eastern Pacific–a suggestion of El Niño. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for an 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and a 55-60% chance of continuing into spring 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. New forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing through spring.



Edited by RC (09/11/2018 09:32)

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#1475637 - 09/11/2018 10:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Sorry, but I can’t see any WWB on that MSLP.


East of PNG mate.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1475640 - 09/11/2018 11:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Speculation about coupling might become redundant soon - with strong subsurface temp anom and corresponding sea level surface anom @ ~120w (Stormsurf)

maximal statistical correlation at this approx location for this time of year between thermocline depth and sst
with sst lagging 0 to 3 months
(sorry wont link - "Relationship between thermocline depth and SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific", Zhu, Kumar & Huang)

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#1475642 - 09/11/2018 11:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Speculation about coupling might become redundant soon - with strong subsurface temp anom and corresponding sea level surface anom @ ~120w (Stormsurf)

maximal statistical correlation at this approx location for this time of year between thermocline depth and sst
with sst lagging 0 to 3 months
(sorry wont link - "Relationship between thermocline depth and SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific", Zhu, Kumar & Huang)


I think a few of us have said already that it is likely. ElNino at this time of year is late but certainly not unprecedented.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1475644 - 09/11/2018 11:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
SB - the anomaly is there under Nino1.2, but the surface temp has not changed over past 15 days (same for all of EQ Pacific).
Also the SSL at 120 W has remained steady, and showing signs of shrinking if anything, over the past 20 days. I've been archiving these for several months now.
Trades remain weak over Nino.4 but typical over Nino.3.
Signals more of the same neutral ESNO conditions for another 2 weeks from here to this tiro.

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#1475649 - 09/11/2018 16:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looks like we have another stagnant high just off New Zealand refusing to move.

The El Nino like weather looks set to continue indefinitely for the time being.

I wonder if these fake El Nino's we get create drier conditions then the real El Nino's.

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#1475650 - 09/11/2018 16:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 710
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Sorry, but I can’t see any WWB on that MSLP.

It’s not fake news. It’s there.

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#1475671 - 10/11/2018 11:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tropical storms now showing up in longer term models in both the Indian and Coral sea - not to impact Aus at this stage. But nice to see the dynamics allowing them this early in the season.

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#1475695 - 11/11/2018 11:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Ridging, ridging and more ridging. It looks like November will be a write off for any decent rainfall for much of Qld. Probably worse than last November if modelling is any guide .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1475699 - 11/11/2018 12:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
ENSO wise, the Pacific EQ trades are set to enhance over coming days, lull for a day or two, then freshen stronger in 10 days time acc. to EC.

Global IR currently showing neutral ESNO, note the MJO S of India, mooted to move closer to Aus before reforming back over Africa in about 5 days time according to most models:

The freshening trades likely to keep Nino1.2 through to Nino.4 cloud free for at least another week imo, leaves the door open for moisture to enter Aus from NW and NNE over coming 10 days imo. That Quidge CF refers to is not good for E Qld though.


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#1475702 - 11/11/2018 13:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I’ll post some charts on the CHI200 later on tonight which may assist to explain some things a little more clearly. Things are pretty damn complex right now...

TS cool

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#1475703 - 11/11/2018 13:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1823
Loc: Kingaroy
It's not looking good rain wise over the next few months in Queensland according to CFS, even the monsoon over northern Australia isn't looking to good as well. Pseudo-El Ninos could well be the worst ones to get.

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#1475704 - 11/11/2018 14:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: RC
Looks like we have another stagnant high just off New Zealand refusing to move.

The El Nino like weather looks set to continue indefinitely for the time being.

I wonder if these fake El Nino's we get create drier conditions then the real El Nino's.


Very, very similar to last November - highs just sat there for the whole month and refused to budge. November is supposed to be the heart of QLD's storm season but not anymore I guess.

And since last November was so similar and ENSO was the other way around, I'm not convinced ENSO has anything to do with our weather atm.

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#1475705 - 11/11/2018 14:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Also, the WWB seems to just sit above PNG for more than a week according to EC/GFS? I don't know what it will mean but surely it can't be good?

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#1475709 - 11/11/2018 18:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It's not looking good rain wise over the next few months in Queensland according to CFS, even the monsoon over northern Australia isn't looking to good as well. Pseudo-El Ninos could well be the worst ones to get.


....and Summer/Autumn weak La Nina's are currently on the nose down in Victoria as well!

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#1475710 - 11/11/2018 18:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mega
Also, the WWB seems to just sit above PNG for more than a week according to EC/GFS? I don't know what it will mean but surely it can't be good?


According to StormSurf, could generate a Kelvin wave.

I think that the strengthening trades over most of EQ Pacific over next 10 days+ will keep the SST high in that same PNG region. Meaning a continuation of neutral ESNO conditions as I see it.

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#1475718 - 12/11/2018 09:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3356
Loc: Buderim
MJO According to RMMI is in Indian Ocean and forecast to pretty much collapse in the Pacific. If I had to guess from current short term forecast charts the MJO is currently running through Pacific, with westerly winds in far west matching substantial low pressure and lifting CHI in central west. This activity then weakens and re-emerges in North America to Africa region. CFS has often been forecasting shifts of westerly activity towards the eastern Pacific, but the westerly activity seems to want to stay in the west, which is bad for our rainfall in my opinion.

For yet another opinion, weekly CFS trade forecast seems to agree that that MJO is in Indian Ocean but predicts it is going to strengthen significantly as it enters the Pacific.

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#1475720 - 12/11/2018 10:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good consensus in the MJO model latest run, shows MJO to arrive above Darwin in coming days, weaken there, then reform again over Africa - which would initiate a "third lap", with each lap seemingly edging closer to Aus before dissipating?

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#1475740 - 12/11/2018 23:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Wildfires in California are very unusual during El Ninos...usually it’s wet and mudslides. Very strange! More a La Niña thing.

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