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#1479488 - 12/12/2018 07:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Haha good one Ken, if you read my posts correctly my comments were more along the lines of getting 0 rain when 6 days of 50% chance are forecast. The odds of getting rain on 1 day out of 6 at 50% probability each day is over 98%, but they still get it wrong. But keep defending them and mocking me if it makes you feel better, I'll let the facts speak for themselves.


I think you need to re-read my post...


Quote:

plucka: Are you interested in the weather at all?

Just out of curiosity, I had a look at your previous posts. You've made 19 posts since you joined and every single one of them has been the usual "BOM fail" rant. Not a single one of them has involved any interest in the weather itself.
In fact, back on the 22nd of last month, you made a post saying and I quote "This will be my last comment on this"
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...s_R#Post1476496
Since then, all 8 of your posts continued on about the same "BOM fail" rant.
I don't mind anti-BoM rants as long as they're based on facts but that's all you ever do and you don't seem interested in the weather at all.

As for rainfall this weekend, it doesn't take a weather geek to work out that showers are hit and miss and that not every location will get some. If you look at the observed rainfall for the 24hrs (1st image) and the archived radar loop at http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane/2018-12-07-14/2018-12-09-14 you'll see that there were indeed some showers that kept coming onto the coast in SE QLD.

I didn't see you post your meteorological reasoning (not just the "percentages are always overdone" line) behind why you thought the contrary would happen?
Time to invoke the Ignore function for the first time methinks.

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#1479489 - 12/12/2018 07:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Plucka,

You cannot verify probability forecasts with a sample of observations of just a few consecutive days. Get observations of actual rain days against forecasts of some chance of rain for about 100 or 200 days and across multiple different events (preferably at least 20) to get a fair comparison.

Also as Ken has said before look at the region not just one's backyard.

With probabilities there will always be situations that do not eventuate. That is why they are forecast with probabilities.
It is not a reason to say the forecast failed.

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#1479491 - 12/12/2018 07:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Steve O]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 38
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Oh if it comes off the media will go into melt down would love to see Kochie up in Gympie chasing storms haha


Yep the obligatory moronic reporter standing outside in the middle of the storm. Makes me laugh every time I see it.

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#1479492 - 12/12/2018 07:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: plucka99]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: plucka99

Curious how you and some others here find the potential for damaging winds and flooding "exciting". I would bet if you actually found yourself in a real cyclone or flood you would be wetting your pants more from fear than excitment.


Been in flood events and wind events of at least cat 1 cyclone strength a few times. Definitely a mix of mostly excitement, and some real fear if things get too real - eg when winds started bowing the windows far enough I worried they might shatter, or when a very large tree went crack and fell over in the neighbours back yard as I watched and there was a short moment of thinking it might hit me. Of course that then becomes excitement afterwards when I get to tell the story.

Perhaps I should feel guilty about being excited because people die and houses are destroyed. But that won't make the excitement go away. And my excitement doesn't cause the bad weather, and a lack of excitement wouldn't make it go away.

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#1479494 - 12/12/2018 07:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Obviously plucka didnít appear to see Colinís post either....


Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: plucka99

I mean just look back at their forecast for the week from Saturday, 50% chance of rain every day this week, so far, zero and the next 3 days seems to be close to zero as well, total fail.


What a load of rubbish, I have had showers everyday.
Here is the radar archive as evidence.

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 01:00 08/12/2018 to 01:00 11/12/2018 UTC



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#1479495 - 12/12/2018 07:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Flowin]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 38
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Plucka,

You cannot verify probability forecasts with a sample of observations of just a few consecutive days. Get observations of actual rain days against forecasts of some chance of rain for about 100 or 200 days and across multiple different events (preferably at least 20) to get a fair comparison.

Also as Ken has said before look at the region not just one's backyard.

With probabilities there will always be situations that do not eventuate. That is why they are forecast with probabilities.
It is not a reason to say the forecast failed.

Agree I wish I had more data of forecast vs actual, but my ancedotal evidence over many years I feel the BOM pretty consistently overestimate both chance and amount of rain in their forecasts. Feel free to disagree if anyone has data to prove otherwise.

I just thought this week would be a good example with the forecast 50% chance every day. As I said with such odds the probability of rain on just one day out of 6 is over 98%, currently into day 5 and nothing yet, so to get a 98% probability wrong does speak volumes.

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#1479496 - 12/12/2018 07:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 38
...


Edited by Seabreeze (12/12/2018 18:20)
Edit Reason: trolling

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#1479499 - 12/12/2018 08:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Quote:

Sigh,As I said, a few drops of rain north of Redcliffe doesn't really constitute rain for Brisbane, clutching at straws much? Tell me what the rainfall totals from BRISBANE stations (Brisbane, Brisbane AP, Archerfield) has been this week), Zero.

He lives in Bracken Ridge. Bracken Ridge is a suburb of Brisbane.

Why are you even here anyway if you havenít made a single post that shows any interest in the weather?

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#1479502 - 12/12/2018 08:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
On the chance of rain versus likely amount of rain discussion, I like that the forecasts give us both.
I know that some have difficulty with it but use the one that suits your interest in the rainfall.
If I am planning an activity where any rain will be disruptive such as painting outside, removing a roof, or something like that I find the chance of rain is useful. If I am interested in whether I should water my garden, how much water I might get in the tanks, or will my earthworks project become a muddy swamp, chance of rain is not much use, and I look at the likely rain amount, and with a view there is always a chance it could be more or less than the likely rain amount.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1479504 - 12/12/2018 08:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..12 DEC 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.5C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 6kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.6HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud, smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......29.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1544
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY...Smoke haze developed.

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#1479506 - 12/12/2018 08:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Sigh,As I said, a few drops of rain north of Redcliffe doesn't really constitute rain for Brisbane, clutching at straws much? Tell me what the rainfall totals from BRISBANE stations (Brisbane, Brisbane AP, Archerfield) has been this week), Zero.

And if you read my post properly at http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1479499#Post1479499 you wouldíve also seen from the observed rainfall map that a number of official rain gauges in BRISBANE received measurable rainfall. The gauges at the few AWS sites in Brisbane that you referred to such as Archerfield and Brisbane AP form a TINY minority of the official rain gauges that exist in Brisbane.

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#1479525 - 12/12/2018 10:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
What is happening here is we have a troll, one who takes delight in annoying people on a forum and seeks attention. They do not contribute anything of value to the conversation but try and cause a knee jerk reaction.

The best way to deal with a troll is to ignore them. If this fails then the next best action is to ban one from the forum.

A troll can be someone seeking attention, or a disgruntled member of a forum who takes on a new identity or an ex member that decides to hide behind a pseudo to cause aggravation, example someone on an FB page seeking revenge. So many things behind trolling.

What is amazing, is the more they post the more of a profile they build up and small cracks begin to expose who the person Is. Sentence structure, phrases, wording or locations give a lot of information. It also exposes what the person is like as a character. On here there have been a few members that have created new identities to hide behind and some who genuinely just wanted a fresh start after learning so much.

All this is happening while we have an exciting weather event with so many possible scenarios unfolding. This is the last I will say on the matter and the last I will correspond to plucka.
You can fire away all you want but I will just ignore anything posted.
The funny thing is I consider this a waste of valuable time in posting but enough is enough!!!.

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#1479534 - 12/12/2018 10:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
WAAAAAYY Too early to think about what the scenario will be in SEQ. I think by sat we might have a more concrete idea ?
Personally i think it will be a fizzer only becuase it is sooooooo rare to get an oswald system this early in SEQ. The chances are so slim. But i have to say this year the current Enso pattern is not performing to what it should be right now. I think it maybe one of the 30% ers. eg for el nino %70 chances of being being drier and %30 wetter. Anyway I am just going of historical rememberings of having 1. current enso setup 2. occurrences of an oswald setup this time of year
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1479584 - 12/12/2018 14:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
I am also somewhat skeptical but 2018 has been a strange year of weather with significant anomalies in several locations worldwide. Based on my experience so far for 2018 I am not sure that history is an accurate guide.

For SE Qld, there is still too much tracking error / too far in advance to predict it accurately. If the GFS model forecast was to actually happen, well the last time that happened maybe was 1990 or 1974.

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#1479585 - 12/12/2018 14:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Just noticed a site I use has an 18z and 06z EC run on it which is pretty cool. Only out to 90 hours but useful addition. Latest EC run shows the system a little further south again. Interesting trend on this one. Latest 00z GFS just coming out and also seems to be further south with the cyclone coming ashore on the southwest coast of the Gulf. Watching the rest of the run with interest.

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#1479586 - 12/12/2018 14:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Yep Kev, and the hourly data from EC has been made publicly available as well in addition to the 18z and 06z runs.

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#1479587 - 12/12/2018 14:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep Kev, and the hourly data from EC has been made publicly available as well in addition to the 18z and 06z runs.

Fantastic to see but can see it taking up even more of my time now nerd Iím using meteologix - any recommendations of other sites?

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#1479591 - 12/12/2018 16:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 38
...


Edited by Seabreeze (12/12/2018 18:21)
Edit Reason: trolling

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#1479592 - 12/12/2018 16:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Colin Maitland]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 38
...


Edited by Seabreeze (12/12/2018 18:22)
Edit Reason: trolling

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#1479594 - 12/12/2018 16:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Secondly as I said all Brisbane stations record zero rainfall this week. I wouldn't call a few drops in a fringe suburb of Brisbane (not even in Brisbane city council) as proof that Brisbane received rain.


All Brisbane stations did NOT record zero rainfall - refer to the map I posted earlier.

Re-read where I said, "The gauges at the few AWS sites in Brisbane that you referred to such as Archerfield and Brisbane AP form a TINY minority of the official rain gauges that exist in Brisbane."



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