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#1475682 - 10/11/2018 17:49 Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all, another interesting system though confess for the 00z run today have only seen GFS and UKmet so far. Tuesday looks stormy and wet from NW parts of the state through to maybe Melbourne. Ukmet showing very heavy rain in parts of Melbourne Tuesday evening. Weather lingers until Thursday particularly out in the east of the state though not huge, more like "showers".

Anyway bit of warmth Monday then some weather to watch.
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#1475683 - 10/11/2018 18:24 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ruckle, also keen on storm chances next week.

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#1475686 - 10/11/2018 20:16 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
00z EC has something of a ECL forming ahead of the upper trough creating some pretty heavy rain in the eastern high country for the latter part of this thread
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#1475694 - 11/11/2018 10:18 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Except for CMC and a little bit of short range ACC all the heavy precip has been concentrated out east (particularly far NE) on 12z run.

Warmest night in several here last night. Minimum of 6.0c
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#1475698 - 11/11/2018 12:14 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yeah Ruckle, isolated thundery rain in NW around Mildura to Broken Hill and between SW Victoria to Melbourne at 6PM Tuesday then weaken overnight.

Wednesday is isolated thundery rain from central Victoria to most East and to North East all way to Thursday.'

The trough seem weak for heavy precip in most areas of Victoria.

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#1475708 - 11/11/2018 18:19 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
AccR at this early stage reckons most rain will fall along the Murray R - that region does need it, like Nth Gippsland and many other locations....


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#1475715 - 11/11/2018 19:35 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Ukmet suggesting we extend the thread till Friday 16th, at least for eastern parts with showery rainy weather in fact till Saturday am on tonights run
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#1475734 - 12/11/2018 18:22 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
AccR mooting a stormy night in N Gippsland for Wednesday? - GFS not as bullish.

There will be storms about in various Vic locations over the next 3 days I'm sure.

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#1475739 - 12/11/2018 22:19 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
By stormcast GFS storms will be beginning 1PM afternoon on wards wide spread all around Victoria isolated and higher storms likely in East.


Edited by chasers addict (12/11/2018 22:23)

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#1475757 - 13/11/2018 13:40 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This system looks hopeless Today so i think next systm look better is next Tuesday 20th..

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#1475758 - 13/11/2018 14:19 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah AccessR agrees, just looking at widespread falls around 1-5mm and a few areas up to 10mm in the NE and in the rangers.
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#1475761 - 13/11/2018 14:49 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Recent cold spell has really dried out the region to our N and NW creating a very dry return flow from the north. NW of the state might be interesting in the next hour or so.
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#1475762 - 13/11/2018 15:54 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victoria only very good if Cold front combine with trough helps more rain to fall.

At moment hope something from NW Victoria next few hours.

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#1475763 - 13/11/2018 16:12 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 586
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Just finished golf at Mildura and looking very threatening to the N.W
Last trip up here last November had 75mm of rain one evening.
Locals said that was the last time it rained.

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#1475765 - 13/11/2018 16:32 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1244
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I'm thinking some lightning from some high based storms will be this weeks treat. I have a feeling that they will be short lived (or a thin line) and wont hold as much rain as people hope.

Hope something comes through after dark as I'd really like to get some new lightning pictures on the wall wink
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#1475773 - 13/11/2018 19:03 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
32C yesterday, 31C and humid/cloudy here today. .....hopefully we will get a storm sometime in the next 48 hrs.

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#1475798 - 14/11/2018 13:42 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
4.0mm out of my gauge. Still nice and green, possible sprinkle or mizzle over next day or so and 30 odd mm next week will be nice.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1475799 - 14/11/2018 14:02 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 586
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
0.2mm at Mildura, 52 mm across the river at Dareton

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#1475820 - 14/11/2018 19:03 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice period of steady rain has set in over Maffra past 45mins, adding to 3mm in sporadic misty events during the day. Remains calm and overcast as it has been all day.

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#1475825 - 14/11/2018 19:37 Re: Another trough with possible heavy rain, 12-15 Nov 2018 [Re: Ruckle]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Managed a 70km wander (cycle) Stratford/Chinns Bridge/Sale/Strat this morning, got a light shower 6 or 7 km south of Stratford but otherwise overcast and cool with little wind.

Any day w/o wind is a good one. cool

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