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#1475565 - 08/11/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 742
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Thanks for sharing the big ice cubes Ken, nice pics Seabreeze.
Sure would have usefull in pools last couple days.
Dont know what to make of our tomorrows forecast. Rain at times, 0 to 2 mm, 50% chance of any rain? Sounds like double Dutch to me.


No worries Mad Elf.

That forecast is dead simple - it simply means what it says.
50% of any rainfall.... and if any rainfall does occur, the likely amount is 0 to 2mm.
The chance of any rain and the amounts are two separate things. I think many people overthink it or read too much into it. Chance of rain together with rainfall amounts have been a basic part of forecasts in a number of countries around the world for many years before Australia finally started using the terminology.


If there's only a 50% chance, then they shouldn't be saying "rain at times". This to me suggests it's basically guaranteed to rain. Why not say "chance of rain" or "chance of showers" in the forecast wording.


Edited by Mezo (08/11/2018 14:26)
_________________________
OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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#1475566 - 08/11/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Mezo]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Mezo
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Thanks for sharing the big ice cubes Ken, nice pics Seabreeze.
Sure would have usefull in pools last couple days.
Dont know what to make of our tomorrows forecast. Rain at times, 0 to 2 mm, 50% chance of any rain? Sounds like double Dutch to me.


No worries Mad Elf.

That forecast is dead simple - it simply means what it says.
50% of any rainfall.... and if any rainfall does occur, the likely amount is 0 to 2mm.
The chance of any rain and the amounts are two separate things. I think many people overthink it or read too much into it. Chance of rain together with rainfall amounts have been a basic part of forecasts in a number of countries around the world for many years before Australia finally started using the terminology.


If there's only a 50% chance, then they shouldn't be saying "rain at times". This to me suggests it's basically guaranteed to rain. Why not say "chance of rain" or "chance of showers" in the forecast wording.


I'm not sure which location he was referring to in that forecast but the one for Brisbane issued at 4:20pm yesterday was for "medium chance of showers" with a 50% chance of any rain.

"Chance of rain at times" is better wording if the probability of precip is 50% rather than "rain at times".

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#1475577 - 08/11/2018 16:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hi Ken, it was the 5pm Esk forecast yesterday for today. Cheers.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (08/11/2018 16:55)

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#1475585 - 08/11/2018 18:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Toowoomba Temp at 8:00 am, 10.9. App. temp 5.3, drizzling rain, howling sw'er all night and this morning. So hard for a wimp like me.
cheers


That cloudband resembled a winter system more than a summer one.

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#1475586 - 08/11/2018 18:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
And felt like winter, but the sun was nice in the afternoon. What a change! Sounds like Kingaroy was similar this morning.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (08/11/2018 18:43)

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#1475594 - 08/11/2018 20:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
DNO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2003
Posts: 502
Loc: Ellesmere, Qld
I read that the Bunya Mountains was (unofficially) 8 at 11am this morning.


Edited by DNO (08/11/2018 20:01)
Edit Reason: spelling

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#1475599 - 08/11/2018 21:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1253
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Wouldn't surprise me DNO, I was freezing my butt off at work until about 11 thismorning. Even after the sun came out at lunchtime it was still chilly in the shade. Don't think we've had a cold, dry day with sw'lys this late in the season for a few years. Will be interesting to see how cold it gets tonight, currently 14C here.
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 660mm

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#1475606 - 08/11/2018 22:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes, felt like winter in Warwick also. Had 3.5mm of rain here overnight. Gusty SSE winds now. Feels so much nicer than yesterday.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1475607 - 08/11/2018 22:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
46.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here from yesterday's thunderstorms which were then followed by overnight/morning rain. The rainband cleared off a couple minutes past 9am this morning. I read the SES responded to a downed tree here after yesterday's storms.

The front replaced the very warm and humid conditions with cool, dry air. Kempsey yesterday afternoon versus this afternoon, basically changing from summer to winter:


I neglected to mention that Tuesday's storms brought wind damage to places in the Taree-Wingham area (south of Port Macquarie).

Models are showing some interest in storms on Saturday about the MNC, but nothing like Tuesday and yesterday's severe storm activity.

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#1475614 - 09/11/2018 07:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Toowoomba Temp at 8:00 am, 10.9. App. temp 5.3, drizzling rain, howling sw'er all night and this morning. So hard for a wimp like me.
cheers


That cloudband resembled a winter system more than a summer one.


I was actually going to ask about that cloud band and how did it form when we had a upper high in the middle of the Continent the past week?? Where was the source of the moisture coming from ?

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#1475619 - 09/11/2018 07:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Toowoomba Temp at 8:00 am, 10.9. App. temp 5.3, drizzling rain, howling sw'er all night and this morning. So hard for a wimp like me.
cheers


That cloudband resembled a winter system more than a summer one.



I was actually going to ask about that cloud band and how did it form when we had a upper high in the middle of the Continent the past week?? Where was the source of the moisture coming from ?

The upper high had long gone from the area by the time yesterday rolled around. The nearest one yesterday was near the northern WA/NT border. Yesterday's cloudband was mainly due to the uplift of upper level northwesterlies ahead of the approaching upper trough and the surface cold front helped to enhance this lifting in a narrower belt within that zone as well.

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#1475623 - 09/11/2018 08:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: gleno71]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: gleno71


I was actually going to ask about that cloud band and how did it form when we had a upper high in the middle of the Continent the past week?? Where was the source of the moisture coming from ?


Even if the dew points are very dry near 0C at the surface, if you can lift that air high enough that temps drop below freezing then water will condense to form clouds.

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#1475630 - 09/11/2018 08:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..9 NOV 2018 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........55%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........12C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SSW 18kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1020.6HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......25.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....14.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...13.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....12C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1010.9Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SW 43kph at 0930
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain cleared late morning, to generally cloudy.

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#1475662 - 09/11/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Thanks Ken and Mike. I'm presuming the Indian ocean Diaper plays a role in these cloud bands as well? I think that's mainly winter it happens.

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#1475668 - 10/11/2018 09:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..10 NOV 2018 TIME..0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......22.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........54%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........13C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....WSW 10kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.7HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Sky clear
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......25.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....13.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...12.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....11C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1019.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..S 36kph at 1258
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...No significant weather.

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#1475687 - 10/11/2018 21:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Isolated thunderstorms about the MNC this afternoon. A couple reports of small hail.
https://www.facebook.com/NSWSC/posts/1951408121607974
https://www.facebook.com/290536084480402/videos/524296918044087

Thunder was heard here from a storm about 10kms to our west. 2.0mm from a period of light rain during this afternoon.

At this stage, Thursday night may bring the next chance of storms locally though it depends on the timing of the change (there might be one or two storms about the foothills tomorrow but they won't affect here).

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#1475689 - 11/11/2018 03:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
From the way it's looking, SEQ will be flat-out seeing another storm by the time November is out. No real rain events on the horizon either. It sucks, you get a bunch of days with some rain and the odd storm followed by a month of nothing. I wonder if it was always like this?

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#1475690 - 11/11/2018 03:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And don't even get me started on CQ & NQ, it's even worse up there.

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#1475691 - 11/11/2018 07:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
It Sucks alright! I think the warning Bells were going off when we hearing about floods everywhere in the northern hemisphere particularly in Europe as well as the countless cyclones in the Sth China sea.I observed this as a young bloke , floods in those regions drought out here.Natures way of balancing things out I guess.Just a thought anyway.

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#1475714 - 11/11/2018 19:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep waiting.. next wknd theres a glimmer of hope and not sure probably too far out but another front after that.

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