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#1485364 - 14/01/2019 09:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Most eps ens members are north with this modeled system,however the cyclone guidance does include a few members that turn a solid system poleward south with landfalls.

http://imgur.com/7Hvwo5T


Edited by vorts (14/01/2019 09:10)

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#1485413 - 14/01/2019 19:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
What goes west ultimately has to recurve back east/SE.

Here is a track map from CMC ensembles.
While he is out there he is busy wrapping up some lovely moisture for someone in Australia . Even if it is the shredded mess of an ex TC
This track map suggesting a TC even at latitude 25s . Interesting..


source
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

----
btw vorts . are u from the USA?
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#1485415 - 14/01/2019 19:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hmmmm
Just checked ACCESS G . ACCESS Not having a bar of the CMC forecast posted above
ACCESS G says strong high pressure keeps the tropical low well ot to the NW. In fact has gone off TC status currently and keeps the low under INVEST igation as a trough with two embedded lows throughout this week
Next week is another story , this invest possibly still in play
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1485430 - 14/01/2019 22:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
There's two systems maybe the current 90S that tracks west,then another that drops drops south as strong system latter shown on eps and now on the GFS00z as land fall threat. GOC gets a sniff of a tc aswell. [img]https://i.imgur.com/HHPXEq2.gif?1[/img]

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#1485507 - 15/01/2019 15:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 14 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 17 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A tropical low (11U) may develop within a deepening trough north of the Kimberley later today or tomorrow. The tropical low is forecast to track west over the Timor Sea and the Browse Basin today and tomorrow. By Wednesday there is a slight risk of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity, though by this time the system is expected to be over the Indian Ocean, well to the northwest of the Kimberley with minimal risk of affecting the West Australian mainland. In the longer term, the system will continue to track to the west throughout the week, well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean where there is a chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1485609 - 16/01/2019 11:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Windy has an interesting scenario on the 25 Jan with 2 systems firing up.One just north of Maningrida and one off the north west Kimberley.A long way out but has the potential to impact WA,NT and Qld.

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#1486022 - 19/01/2019 10:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
So the EC model has a TL crossing between Hedland and Onslow next weekend. It just wouldn’t be Australia Day in Karratha without a cyclone threatening in the lead up

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-mslp-wind850?facets=Range,Medium%20(15%20days)&time=2019011812,216,2019012712&projection=classical_australasia


Edited by Weathergrrl (19/01/2019 10:44)

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#1486030 - 19/01/2019 12:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Yes Wg its going to be an interesting week ahead for the West Kimberley/Pilbara .

Lots going to depend on the toughing down through to south to see how it affects the tracking of the system and how far its dragged to the West and of course ultimately where it crosses.

Unfortunately not going to be around for it as will be in the south until the 6 Feb.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1486095 - 20/01/2019 00:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah Desie, will be interesting to see how much the southern patterns will affect our one! It is hard watching in anticipation when you know you won’t get to see to see them if they eventuate

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#1486106 - 20/01/2019 12:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
EC thinks the modeled storm may have some sting.
https://i.imgur.com/0KhaCvv.gif?

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#1486109 - 20/01/2019 13:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

That forecast from EC looks like it will do a extensive tour of duty from the south Kimberley along parallel down the Pilbara coast.
Be a matter of wait and see how she steers after and when it forms me thinks. Pretty sure the shear forecast and monsoonal moisture inflow will be pretty favourable for strong development though.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1486113 - 20/01/2019 14:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
EC has it coming more west and more intense than BOM’s Sandfire-ish crossing on Saturday

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#1486145 - 20/01/2019 18:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g keeps the core of the low just off the coast all this week.
25th/26th jan, some intensification and good symmetry occurs during transition southward along the coast .Looks strong enough for A TC CAT 1

Although starts to loose some of the NW monsoonal inflow at latitude 118e 17s on Saturday as it is disconnecting from the monsoon trough .
Could possibly be be nasty CAT 1 type hybrid.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...rea=Au&model=CG


Edited by crikey (20/01/2019 18:34)
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#1486181 - 20/01/2019 23:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

As long as it doesn't end up like that pesty low that turned into TC Hilda late 2017 and got 120kms/hr winds around Broome and tracked SW after passing very close to the Broome peninsular.
It was underrated initially but was later upgraded to a Cat 2.

The course with this low takes will be dependant on exactly where and when the circulation gets going and hence far west it actually travels before taking on a more SW track.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1486224 - 21/01/2019 11:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
EC 12z thinks this will intensify just before landfall with 170-190 gusts. cat3/4

https://imgur.com/95rRCAj

Is not a hybrid.


Edited by vorts (21/01/2019 11:50)

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#1486264 - 21/01/2019 19:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks for the post on EC tracking 'vorts' always good to see the variations in modelling.
Yes l see why EC is depicting a strong TC. EC has the TC further out to sea during southerly transition than ACCESS G.
ACCESS G has upgraded the intensity today. More in line with EC's predicted intensity l suspect.

ACCESS doesn't actually quantify TC mslp and l should of said that was my personal evaluation at the time.

ACCESS G keeps the core rolling down the coast just offshore all week and heading toward the south of Port headland area ( t+156hr forecast) and ACCESS certainly has it looking stronger than yesterdays forecast

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

I am amazed that ACCESS builds its strength considering much of its eastern flank encroaches on dry land.

Anyway the developing low/invest for this TC is on the gradient wind map tonight just a tad NW of Darwin and the convection on the lows , l think , western flank is seen on sat pic tonight .

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#1486297 - 22/01/2019 08:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
BOM currently looking at a cat 2, possibly crossing between Karratha and Onslow. Wondering wether this one may like so many before, skirt all the way around the coast as this system is looking more and more like moving west with each day.
Does anyone have a link to a shear map? My Wondermap shear page does not seem to be working


Edited by Weathergrrl (22/01/2019 09:10)

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#1486330 - 22/01/2019 17:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1486338 - 22/01/2019 18:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Model comparisons over the next 3 days.
https://imgur.com/jT86OyR
EC

https://imgur.com/PBu0ULv
BOM

https://imgur.com/jNvrI9R
GFS animated longer run offshore as a high end cat4 938mb.


Edited by vorts (22/01/2019 18:08)

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#1486339 - 22/01/2019 18:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Thanks vorts!

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