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#1486357 - 22/01/2019 20:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2870
Loc: Tweed Heads
JTWC has posted an INVEST for this potential TC. INVEST 94s
---------
--(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abioweb.txt


Edited by crikey (22/01/2019 20:17)
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#1487121 - 26/01/2019 12:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 994
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
This from JTWC. TC 11S is Riley.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6S 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 389 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251515Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A 251514Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 30-35 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ON THE
PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION TO
WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH TC 11S IN THE LATER TAUS THAT COULD CAUSE
A TRACK SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


Edited by Hailin (26/01/2019 12:17)
Edit Reason: added info

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