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#1475813 - 14/11/2018 18:06 WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
Early season action?

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 14 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 17 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm WST Wednesday Ex Tropical Cyclone Bouchra lies near 6S 91E, about 940 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and is currently outside the Western region. There is a slight chance the system may reintensify and move into the far northwestern parts of the region for a period late this week as it moves southwest towards the central Indian Ocean.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate
Saturday:Moderate

Thunderstorm activity in continuing to increase over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with a trough. At 1pm WST a weak tropical low was located within the trough west of Java near 9S 102E, about 450 kilometres northwest of Christmas Island. This low is expected to move into the Western region [south of 10S] on Thursday morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks southwestward over the coming days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:Moderate
Saturday:Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1475826 - 14/11/2018 19:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Yes saw this one start spinning off to the North West YS.

The Broome coast was forecast for strong North easterlies but we have come under the influence of this system giving us the onshore winds being drawn up from further south.

Be interesting to see what happens in the next few days as it
manoeuvres around off the coast of Java.

Will keep an eye on it for sure.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1475838 - 15/11/2018 01:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Got a bit of circulation with lots of moisture to feed on especially to the north which should help with intensification.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1475856 - 15/11/2018 11:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
Short lived was TC Bouchra unfortunately got ripped apart by strong wind shear which invariably let to its demise .

This info below from NASA.

Tropical Cyclone Bouchra formed on Nov. 10 in the Southern Indian Ocean and was already on its way to dissipation when NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed overhead on Nov. 13.

Bouchra formed on Nov. 10 around 4 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) about 220 miles northwest of Cocos Island, near 5.5 degrees south latitude and 90.7 east longitude. It was the fourth tropical cyclone of the Southern Indian Ocean cyclone season.

On Nov. 13, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite analyzed Tropical Depression Bouchra showed a disorganized storm. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted the storm appeared to have "shallow disorganized central convection sheared eastward, partly exposing a weak and ragged low level circulation."

Wind shear was stretching the storm out from west to east. In general, wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Winds at different levels of the atmosphere pushed against the cylindrical circulation center and skewed it, weakening the rotation.

On Nov., 13 at 4 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) Bouchra's maximum sustained winds had dropped to 34.5 mph (30 knots/55.5 kph). It was located approximately 495 nautical miles northwest of Cocos Island near 7.2 degrees south latitude and 90.3 degrees east longitude. Bouchra was moving southeastward, and will dissipate later in the day.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1475932 - 16/11/2018 16:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 12:40 pm WST on Thursday 15 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 18 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Ex Tropical Cyclone Bouchra lies near 7S 91E, about 850 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and is currently outside the Western region. There is a slight chance the system may reintensify and move into the far northwestern parts of the region for a period during Friday or Saturday. If the system does enter the region, it will be for a short period of time and quickly move out of the region in a southwesterly direction.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Low

Saturday:
Low

Sunday:
Very Low

Another tropical low lies near 10S 103E, about 240 kilometres west of Christmas Island. This low is expected to move in a southwesterly direction over the next few days, away from Christmas Island. There is a moderate chance that the system may reach Tropical Cyclone strength during Friday, with a low chance on Saturday. If the system becomes a Tropical Cyclone, it is likely to pass well to the south of Cocos Island, over open waters.



There are no other lows in the Western region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Moderate

Saturday:
Low

Sunday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.


Very Low:
less than 5%

Low:
5% to 20%

Moderate:
20 to 50%

High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1476080 - 18/11/2018 19:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:31 pm WST on Sunday 18 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 21 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low lies near 15S 98E, about 380 kilometres south of Cocos Island and is moving towards the west over open waters. This system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone Bouchra reintensified to tropical cyclone intensity early on Sunday and lies west of 90E, outside the Western Region. The system will continue to steer in a west to southwesterly direction away from the region.

There are no other lows in the Western region and none are expected to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:

Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1480384 - 14/12/2018 14:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 225
Loc: Cable Beach
So Christmas day/boxing day.....any takers?

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#1480388 - 14/12/2018 15:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
There are little hints at something forming but then next model run its gone. I fly out on the 27th so I reckon about then.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1480391 - 14/12/2018 15:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
Yes Pops everytime you leave we have some good action the next day ..... wink

I suppose we got to let the QLDers have a bit of fun first though....
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1480622 - 14/12/2018 23:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 225
Loc: Cable Beach
Hi guys thought I would just chuck out a line and see what, who was biting. Can't wait for our first one....whenever that might be.

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#1481464 - 17/12/2018 21:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
GFS has a few LOWS floating around the Nwest Xmas to New Years. Hope something eventuates from them. It is so often the case we get one in that week. Be nice to cop a flogging crappy stormy day for Xmas and then fly out on the 27th. Cat 1-2 be nice.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1481477 - 17/12/2018 23:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 225
Loc: Cable Beach
Sure would be good. Ec does not seem to interested. But here is hoping

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#1481557 - 19/12/2018 00:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
So monsoonal low developing around NT around Xmas and moving westwards, here’s hoping this will be the start of our rain ☔️

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#1482746 - 26/12/2018 18:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 26 December 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 29 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A weak tropical low could form over the western Arafura Sea or eastern Timor Sea and track westwards into the Western Region over the weekend. The tropical low is only a slight risk of reaching tropical cyclone intensity, and could move into the region from Saturday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low

There are no other tropical systems expected to develop in the Western Region for the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1484816 - 09/01/2019 12:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
What is everyone’s thoughts our first touch of the action next week? Are we thinking the TL will sail past with just some rain for us?

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#1484822 - 09/01/2019 12:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Be interesting to see what happens, going by Access G. Long way out though.

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#1484985 - 10/01/2019 18:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has been going off a decent TC near the top end and NW WA this week.
There is one low , one possible cyclone ( 140 e 5 N) forecast to form in about 6 days time... over the equator in the Northern Hemisphere.

These lows appear to be stealing some of our NW infeed into the monsoon trough, which consequently is weakening our monsoon trough in places.
The coral sea in particular.

A weak low , possibly ex penny is tracking west into south GOC area on Friday 11th jan and
over the top end on Saturday
Very weak over NW WA and top end on sunday and monday( elongated low)
Small rotation Pops out to sea on Monday 14th Jan

Tuesday the 15th the low and troughing there finally connect to the monsoon trough.. 122e 12 s
Then there could possibly be something to look at..

I have hot wired this ACCESS gradient wind map ( greater Australia region) It will update each day



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485270 - 13/01/2019 09:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Nice blob of convection west of Darwin.



ACCESS r says it is positioned on western flank of an elongated low up there this morning. That blob has a nice symmetrical look like it could form into a TC. ACCESS G say that will be the case .
Current forecast is for TC status Friday the 18th JAN. The forecast TC is well of shore on Friday ( 110e 14s )and ACCESS has it currently tracking west.
Certainly worth the watch. These things are like boomerangs sometimes.
Before this possible INVEST forms, an area of elongated troughing forms off shore of the NW coast on Tuesday 1th Jan.
Maybe some rain for the coast here which will be on the southern flank of this long elongated low.

The low could be called an INVEST on Wednesday 16th Jan
with the NW coast on his eastern flank

ACCESS G is showing a precipitation signal for the NW quadrant of WA from Tuesday onwards with what appears to be a build up of moisture with this low in the area
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (13/01/2019 09:06)
_________________________
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#1485319 - 13/01/2019 18:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Outlook From BOM .

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 13 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 16 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A tropical low (11U) is likely to develop within a deepening trough over the western Top End of the Northern Territory or adjacent Timor Sea later today or Monday morning (outside the Western Region). The tropical low is forecast to track west over the Timor Sea on Monday and Tuesday and gradually begin tracking west to southwest over the Browse Basin later on Tuesday with a slight possibility of reaching tropical cyclone intensity later in the day. By Wednesday there is a greater risk of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity, though by this time the system is expected to be over the Indian Ocean, well to the northwest of the Kimberley with minimal risk of affecting the West Australian mainland. In the longer term, the system will continue to track to the west-southwest throughout next week, well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1485344 - 13/01/2019 22:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Very much looks like this invest is the left overs of once x-tropicallow penny bein reinvigorated within the trades.
https://imgur.com/k0CUAD7


https://imgur.com/MvfEEa8
GFS almost had the tracking spot on

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#1485364 - 14/01/2019 09:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Most eps ens members are north with this modeled system,however the cyclone guidance does include a few members that turn a solid system poleward south with landfalls.

http://imgur.com/7Hvwo5T


Edited by vorts (14/01/2019 09:10)

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#1485413 - 14/01/2019 19:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
What goes west ultimately has to recurve back east/SE.

Here is a track map from CMC ensembles.
While he is out there he is busy wrapping up some lovely moisture for someone in Australia . Even if it is the shredded mess of an ex TC
This track map suggesting a TC even at latitude 25s . Interesting..


source
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

----
btw vorts . are u from the USA?
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485415 - 14/01/2019 19:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hmmmm
Just checked ACCESS G . ACCESS Not having a bar of the CMC forecast posted above
ACCESS G says strong high pressure keeps the tropical low well ot to the NW. In fact has gone off TC status currently and keeps the low under INVEST igation as a trough with two embedded lows throughout this week
Next week is another story , this invest possibly still in play
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485430 - 14/01/2019 22:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
There's two systems maybe the current 90S that tracks west,then another that drops drops south as strong system latter shown on eps and now on the GFS00z as land fall threat. GOC gets a sniff of a tc aswell. [img]https://i.imgur.com/HHPXEq2.gif?1[/img]

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#1485507 - 15/01/2019 15:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 14 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 17 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A tropical low (11U) may develop within a deepening trough north of the Kimberley later today or tomorrow. The tropical low is forecast to track west over the Timor Sea and the Browse Basin today and tomorrow. By Wednesday there is a slight risk of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity, though by this time the system is expected to be over the Indian Ocean, well to the northwest of the Kimberley with minimal risk of affecting the West Australian mainland. In the longer term, the system will continue to track to the west throughout the week, well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean where there is a chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1485609 - 16/01/2019 11:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Windy has an interesting scenario on the 25 Jan with 2 systems firing up.One just north of Maningrida and one off the north west Kimberley.A long way out but has the potential to impact WA,NT and Qld.

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#1486022 - 19/01/2019 10:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
So the EC model has a TL crossing between Hedland and Onslow next weekend. It just wouldn’t be Australia Day in Karratha without a cyclone threatening in the lead up

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-mslp-wind850?facets=Range,Medium%20(15%20days)&time=2019011812,216,2019012712&projection=classical_australasia


Edited by Weathergrrl (19/01/2019 10:44)

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#1486030 - 19/01/2019 12:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Yes Wg its going to be an interesting week ahead for the West Kimberley/Pilbara .

Lots going to depend on the toughing down through to south to see how it affects the tracking of the system and how far its dragged to the West and of course ultimately where it crosses.

Unfortunately not going to be around for it as will be in the south until the 6 Feb.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1486095 - 20/01/2019 00:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah Desie, will be interesting to see how much the southern patterns will affect our one! It is hard watching in anticipation when you know you won’t get to see to see them if they eventuate

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#1486106 - 20/01/2019 12:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
EC thinks the modeled storm may have some sting.
https://i.imgur.com/0KhaCvv.gif?

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#1486109 - 20/01/2019 13:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

That forecast from EC looks like it will do a extensive tour of duty from the south Kimberley along parallel down the Pilbara coast.
Be a matter of wait and see how she steers after and when it forms me thinks. Pretty sure the shear forecast and monsoonal moisture inflow will be pretty favourable for strong development though.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1486113 - 20/01/2019 14:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
EC has it coming more west and more intense than BOM’s Sandfire-ish crossing on Saturday

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#1486145 - 20/01/2019 18:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g keeps the core of the low just off the coast all this week.
25th/26th jan, some intensification and good symmetry occurs during transition southward along the coast .Looks strong enough for A TC CAT 1

Although starts to loose some of the NW monsoonal inflow at latitude 118e 17s on Saturday as it is disconnecting from the monsoon trough .
Could possibly be be nasty CAT 1 type hybrid.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...rea=Au&model=CG


Edited by crikey (20/01/2019 18:34)
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#1486181 - 20/01/2019 23:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

As long as it doesn't end up like that pesty low that turned into TC Hilda late 2017 and got 120kms/hr winds around Broome and tracked SW after passing very close to the Broome peninsular.
It was underrated initially but was later upgraded to a Cat 2.

The course with this low takes will be dependant on exactly where and when the circulation gets going and hence far west it actually travels before taking on a more SW track.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1486224 - 21/01/2019 11:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
EC 12z thinks this will intensify just before landfall with 170-190 gusts. cat3/4

https://imgur.com/95rRCAj

Is not a hybrid.


Edited by vorts (21/01/2019 11:50)

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#1486264 - 21/01/2019 19:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks for the post on EC tracking 'vorts' always good to see the variations in modelling.
Yes l see why EC is depicting a strong TC. EC has the TC further out to sea during southerly transition than ACCESS G.
ACCESS G has upgraded the intensity today. More in line with EC's predicted intensity l suspect.

ACCESS doesn't actually quantify TC mslp and l should of said that was my personal evaluation at the time.

ACCESS G keeps the core rolling down the coast just offshore all week and heading toward the south of Port headland area ( t+156hr forecast) and ACCESS certainly has it looking stronger than yesterdays forecast

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

I am amazed that ACCESS builds its strength considering much of its eastern flank encroaches on dry land.

Anyway the developing low/invest for this TC is on the gradient wind map tonight just a tad NW of Darwin and the convection on the lows , l think , western flank is seen on sat pic tonight .

_________________________
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#1486297 - 22/01/2019 08:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
BOM currently looking at a cat 2, possibly crossing between Karratha and Onslow. Wondering wether this one may like so many before, skirt all the way around the coast as this system is looking more and more like moving west with each day.
Does anyone have a link to a shear map? My Wondermap shear page does not seem to be working


Edited by Weathergrrl (22/01/2019 09:10)

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#1486330 - 22/01/2019 17:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1486338 - 22/01/2019 18:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Model comparisons over the next 3 days.
https://imgur.com/jT86OyR
EC

https://imgur.com/PBu0ULv
BOM

https://imgur.com/jNvrI9R
GFS animated longer run offshore as a high end cat4 938mb.


Edited by vorts (22/01/2019 18:08)

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#1486339 - 22/01/2019 18:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Thanks vorts!

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#1486357 - 22/01/2019 20:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
JTWC has posted an INVEST for this potential TC. INVEST 94s
---------
--(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abioweb.txt


Edited by crikey (22/01/2019 20:17)
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#1487121 - 26/01/2019 12:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
This from JTWC. TC 11S is Riley.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6S 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 389 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251515Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A 251514Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 30-35 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ON THE
PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION TO
WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH TC 11S IN THE LATER TAUS THAT COULD CAUSE
A TRACK SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


Edited by Hailin (26/01/2019 12:17)
Edit Reason: added info

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#1492803 - 01/03/2019 21:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Ens are sniffing atleast two more tc's for the NW. EPS atm thinks one maybe a possible threat. Climo suits this suggestion.
https://imgur.com/U4o1lh7
[img]https://i.imgur.com/U4o1lh7.png?1[/img]
https://imgur.com/fF1RN6k
[img]https://i.imgur.com/fF1RN6k.png?1[/img]

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#1492811 - 02/03/2019 00:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Hopefully one comes close and gives us a few downpours in the next couple of weeks .

Need something to happen ,its about as boring as batshit at the moment.

Need to get our mojo back otherwise its going to be along dry season...
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#1492914 - 02/03/2019 19:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
https://imgur.com/j8Goyvr
00z's
https://imgur.com/LKuLxQT

First hint from the ec deterministic's of a low dropping down from the equatorial trough as-per ens. Worth watching the ens trends.


Edited by vorts (02/03/2019 19:48)

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#1493323 - 06/03/2019 16:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Ascat sampled a low pressure today. The models had been showing this is where the low would spawn from. It is very weak atm and
its obviously already closed off by the westerlies on the scat.

[img]https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B[/img]
https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B

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#1493331 - 06/03/2019 17:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hi 'vorts' I remember you were awaiting an MJO pulse in this region. Looks like it has arrived or is arriving?
ACC g forecasting a small tropical low to form north of Darwin on ' the 9th March. Intensifies , sunday, Monday.
A very small low but ACC r suggesting Monday 11th likely to be an area of investigation. INVEST.
Tracks SW down the WA NW coast Tuesday.
Positioned in a surface trough on Tuesday as an elongated double cored low. Something of interest for the folks in WA

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1493336 - 06/03/2019 18:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
This is Intersting,EC and GFS keep pushing it to the west on every forecast but the formation over the taninbar Islands makes for a curious beginning

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#1493466 - 07/03/2019 21:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: vorts
Ascat sampled a low pressure today. The models had been showing this is where the low would spawn from. It is very weak atm and
its obviously already closed off by the westerlies on the scat.

[img]https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B[/img]
https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B


The low north of joseph bonaparte gulf is one of interest atm. The low on the ascat may drift NTH and loop . Its to early atm to know @ what point if it will be dropping south GFS thinks
its a GOC storm?. Atm i think maybe its a NW threat.

https://imgur.com/fTUyb8v
The two lows L should go west R is the possible threat later on.

https://imgur.com/6vkCnJo
EPS thinks where it forms will be key as to a NW or GOC system.


https://imgur.com/rA7ACgV EC probs for formation

https://imgur.com/XlqYkUR
GFS ens atm are weighted to the NW with some ens members in the GOC.

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#1493591 - 09/03/2019 08:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
As expected the low of interest drifted north. It haw now been
tagged by JTWC as 90S INVEST
https://imgur.com/LLDNrFW

[img]https://imgur.com/LLDNrFW[/img]


Edited by vorts (09/03/2019 08:27)

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#1493604 - 09/03/2019 11:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Interesting days ahead. Been so light on this season so hopefully we see some good development and at least storms with this one.
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#1493612 - 09/03/2019 13:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Been predicted to be a big sucker as it will have premium ingredients to feed on while it further develops .

How close its get will on depend on the timing of its movement towards the coast with upper level trough being the X factor .

Anyway early days but something to keep an eye and hopefully get excited about especially as its been a almost dead TC season to date on the West Coast..
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#1493638 - 09/03/2019 19:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Cyclone ens atm think 90S maybe threatening by next weekend.
Both EPS and GEFS have members that are just-off shore or land-falling 90S. Mid-week should be a decent time to check if ens are verifying. If they are, then look @ the deterministic modelling.

https://imgur.com/iakXJxV

https://imgur.com/MQVJyF9

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#1494142 - 13/03/2019 19:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1494196 - 14/03/2019 09:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 5:28 am WST on Thursday 14 March 2019
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Savannah has formed and lies 100 kilometres north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The system will pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands today, bringing heavy rain and squally winds.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
The Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Watch Zone
None.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Savannah at 3:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South 96.7 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres north of Cocos Island.
Movement: south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah, category 1, is expected to continue to move towards the south-southwest and gradually strengthen during the next few days. It will pass close by to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Thursday morning.

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#1494469 - 14/03/2019 23:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 14/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Savannah
Tropical Cyclone Savannah was located using VIS, Scatterometry and microwave
imagery [TC_SSMIS 14/0031UTC].
Savannah is continuing to move generally towards the southwest due to a mid
level ridge to the east and an upper trough to the south. The system has passed
to the west of the Cocos [Keeling] Islands. Sustained gales are no longer
expected on the Islands, however, strong and squally northerly winds may occur
during the afternoon before easing during the evening. The peak gust recorded
was 43 knots at 2135 UTC.

Over the weekend, the system is forecast to move towards the west southwest as a
mid level ridge builds to the southwest and an upper level trough passes to the
south. Savannah is forecast to reach category 2 intensity on Saturday as shear
is forecast to remain low, though this could occur as early as Friday evening.
There is potential for Savannah to reach category 3 intensity from late Saturday
to Monday with improved poleward outflow. There is potential for dry air to wrap
around the periphery over the weekend and into next week. It is unclear whether
this will impact the intensity as there is uncertainty surrounding the
likelihood of this dry air being ingested into the system.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494472 - 14/03/2019 23:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

TC Savannah sitting close to Cocos Islands a few hours ago.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494515 - 15/03/2019 10:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

TC Savannah may get to cat 2 tomorrow but heading out to the southwest and keep going away from the mainland.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1494542 - 15/03/2019 13:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:46 am WST on Friday 15 March 2019
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Savannah (Category 2) was located at 6:30 am CCT [8:00 am
AWST] near 13.5S 95.2E,
that is 230 km southwest of Cocos Island and moving south southwest at 9
kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah continues to move towards the southwest, further away
from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Savannah is expected to intensify over open
water and not directly affect the Islands or affect the WA mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494546 - 15/03/2019 14:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Captured Savannah last night. I'll get another tonight. I've rotated the image 110 degrees CW.


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#1494547 - 15/03/2019 14:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 485
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Great pic ! Does that put North slightly up centre from upper left hand corner?


Edited by batty (15/03/2019 14:14)
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#1494553 - 15/03/2019 14:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Has a'lot of work still to do,it has no establish core
[img]https://imgur.com/zZlvOGb[/img]

https://imgur.com/L0LTX51

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#1494788 - 16/03/2019 16:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
The EC is currently liking the prospect of a West Pilbara crossing come next Thursday ...
https://imgur.com/9ERhiYp

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#1494791 - 16/03/2019 16:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Yep looking that way Weathergrrl if it happens I reckon it reaches landfall around Onslow...
Mainly cause they have been out of the action for quite awhile. wink
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494907 - 17/03/2019 00:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Forecast to go to Cat 4 Tom night ..Conditions great for intensification out in the central Indian Ocean atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494972 - 17/03/2019 12:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 16 March 2019
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 19 March 2019.


A monsoon trough persists to the north of Australia. A new tropical low (19U) is forecast to develop in the trough well to the north of the Western Australian coast on Sunday. While there is some uncertainty in the system's possible movement and development, the risk of a tropical cyclone developing in the region increases during next week.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Very Low

Monday:
Low

Tuesday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494973 - 17/03/2019 12:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1494979 - 17/03/2019 12:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Yeah This system has a dramatically improved sat-pic signature.

https://i.imgur.com/MEHBPtB.jpg

Unsure as to why images wont display on post.

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#1494982 - 17/03/2019 13:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Maybe you may try using flickr, Vorts

This from CIMSS an hour ago.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1494986 - 17/03/2019 13:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

This one better can see TC Savannah sitting in a sweet spot in regards to wind shear and has got a great outflow channel to the west and north west.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1495011 - 17/03/2019 15:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229


Looking v/good. This is a midget TC.

sorted thanks des.

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#1495035 - 17/03/2019 17:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
4pm image of Savannah. Himawaricast via Jcsat2B.


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#1495037 - 17/03/2019 17:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Lovely image there Learjet.

Savannah may be small in comparison with others but she's got nice even circulation around her tight eye.

She's a good lookin gal.. wink
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1495046 - 17/03/2019 18:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: desieboy]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: desieboy
Lovely image there Learjet.

Great pic Learjet. Makes me dizzy though...

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#1495059 - 17/03/2019 18:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Acc g has a TC approaching the western most tip of WA next saturday. weak cross equatorial but all quadrants at the core meet wind speed. Likely to be an invest tomorrow at
110e. 12s
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1495095 - 17/03/2019 22:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: cold@28]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: desieboy
Lovely image there Learjet.

Great pic Learjet. Makes me dizzy though...


Yeah I sometimes rotate them so the horizon is at the top when they get this close to the curve, otherwise it looks up side down.

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#1495096 - 17/03/2019 23:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Learjet
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: desieboy
Lovely image there Learjet.

Great pic Learjet. Makes me dizzy though...


Yeah I sometimes rotate them so the horizon is at the top when they get this close to the curve, otherwise it looks up side down.

LOL...I feel like I'm going to fall off grin

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#1495223 - 18/03/2019 20:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Monday 18 March 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 21 March 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (19U) has developed north of the Kimberley, near 13.1S 122.7E at 2pm WST Monday, which is about 550km north of Broome. The system is forecast to track generally west southwest over the next few days and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by or on Thursday. At this time it is likely to be well north of the Pilbara coast. There is some uncertainty in the system's movement and there is a chance it moves towards the Pilbara coast later in the week, possibly impacting the Pilbara coast over the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High

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#1495258 - 19/03/2019 01:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Veronica not even born yet but shes already got a huge appetite for convection.

Shes called atm …...Low 19U not an amazing name that's for sure.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495262 - 19/03/2019 07:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Wow Desieboy, looks like she is drawing from that equitiorial flow!

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#1495272 - 19/03/2019 08:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: desieboy]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Veronica not even born yet but shes already got a huge appetite for convection.



She almost sounded like a Guns N Roses album ... hahaha

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#1495318 - 19/03/2019 13:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Yer Weathergrll she's a hungry girl that's for sure . wink even though she still in the embryonic stage.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495343 - 19/03/2019 15:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
00z GFS thinks a very intense TC. A very cold tropopause temperature is the likely reason for such intensification
with these current modelled storms here and the GOC.


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#1495358 - 19/03/2019 17:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
All systems go for this one .Not a certain coastal crossing though .Timing and strenght of ridge and how the trough develops in a few days being the X factors.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 19 March 2019
for the period until midnight WST Friday 22 March 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (19U) is situated to the northwest of the Kimberley. It was located near 14.2S 120.8E at 11am WST Tuesday, about 450km north northwest of Broome. The system is forecast to track generally west southwest over the next couple of days, and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Thursday. At this time it is likely to be well north of the Pilbara coast. There is some uncertainty in the system's movement and there is a chance it moves towards the Pilbara coast later in the week, possibly impacting the Pilbara coast over the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:
Moderate
Thursday:
High
Friday:
High
_________________________
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#1495392 - 19/03/2019 23:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

From JTWC Tropical Weather discussion UTC 1000

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY
231 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190105Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 181359Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE
NEXT 18-30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1495393 - 19/03/2019 23:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Fairly strong shear winds around but in a sweet spot atm .

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#1495396 - 20/03/2019 00:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Game on ...as of tomorrow night.

_________________________
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#1495397 - 20/03/2019 00:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Can’t wait to see what Veronica (to be) has in stall for us. She seems like is punching above her weight already in those not ideal shear conditions around her

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#1495558 - 20/03/2019 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
looks good is in RI phase.


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#1496334 - 27/03/2019 00:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
CraigA74 Offline
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Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1253
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
Still early days but I see EC is showing a system forming in the GOC and heading west to pop out into the Indian Ocean towards the end of next week...... might have to extend my stay over this side of the country

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#1496384 - 27/03/2019 16:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
00z GFS no TC development.


Usually the GFS Is the most aggressive global model.


The EPS 12z MSLP run. https://imgur.com/DVvw1WC

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#1496397 - 27/03/2019 20:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Ridging for days Vorts? I always remain cautious though as often April gives that sense of the dry season kicking in with the arrival of the Easterlies only for some little midget sucker sneaking in late on the scene to rough up the feathers when it was least expected. A few models are hinting at it so will wait and see.
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#1496405 - 27/03/2019 22:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Yeah true best to weight. Atm i tend to think the deterministic
model storm is possibly a phantom.

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#1496442 - 28/03/2019 11:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Popeye]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Ridging for days Vorts? I always remain cautious though as often April gives that sense of the dry season kicking in with the arrival of the Easterlies only for some little midget sucker sneaking in late on the scene to rough up the feathers when it was least expected. A few models are hinting at it so will wait and see.




There is a area of lower pressure pops on the ec ens,it just dont develop usually a possible tc will be display @ aleast a -4 deviation anom.

[img]https://imgur.com/2K4TAMr[/img]


But yeah keep fingers crossed for ya.


Edited by vorts (28/03/2019 11:58)

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#1496451 - 28/03/2019 14:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...19032718&fh=240

zonal flow orange = westerlies Mauve =Easterlies

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#1496560 - 29/03/2019 18:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
GFS00z deterministic bullish.

[img]https://imgur.com/zgaBQdm[/img]


[img]https://imgur.com/vxzS2i9[/img]
EC cyclones

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#1496572 - 29/03/2019 19:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: vorts
GFS00z deterministic bullish.

[img]https://imgur.com/zgaBQdm[/img]


[img]https://imgur.com/vxzS2i9[/img]
EC cyclones


...........................................................
ENS mean of all members keeps the brakes on.
https://imgur.com/k8kU5iW


https://imgur.com/xW3zeSQ
weak anom.

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#1496661 - 30/03/2019 11:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
18z GFS runs the wipers again.



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#1496684 - 30/03/2019 14:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229


EC deterministics see's a storm, likely based on a modelled equatorial wave passing in the period.







GFS thinks the period will be unfavourable (shear)


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...19032918&fh=240




Edited by vorts (30/03/2019 14:49)

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#1496814 - 31/03/2019 11:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229






ens mean one isobar, seen enough myself to move on.

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#1496841 - 31/03/2019 19:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Well looky looky. What do we have here. 2 late season tropical lows forming on the monsoon trough with cross equatorial infeed.
I have read that El Nino often favours late season activity for the top end. Anyway , tropical low forming nth of top end starting tomorrow and intensifying quickly as a small squat tropical storm on Tuesday. The low sits up there for most of the week and makes its move westward and onto the Nw WA coast on saturday April 6th. Could be an Invest out for this low by Tuesday..
Could be a TC off the coast of WA by saturday 6th april.

The other circulation is in the coral sea.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (31/03/2019 19:45)
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#1496908 - 01/04/2019 18:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Access G has this low developing as a TC by the weekend and rolling down the NW/WA coast on sunday. Any other models on board with this TC?
A bit of banding up there over the top end



http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (01/04/2019 18:19)
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#1496921 - 01/04/2019 20:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1496923 - 01/04/2019 20:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229




If any invest actually forms pops,ens future tracks here are pretty good.
South Pacific/Indian https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/

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#1496934 - 01/04/2019 22:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 1 April 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 4 April 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low is forecast to develop north of the Northern Territory on Tuesday and then move west southwest. It is expected to move into the Western Region late on Friday or over the weekend, by which time there is a risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:




Tuesday:
Very Low


Wednesday:
Very Low


Thursday:
Very Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1496957 - 02/04/2019 09:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Fun days ahead desie and vorts. Be interesting to see how this one plays out. Kind of hope it slots down inland of Onslow and down through the gascoyne. Rain in places that mostly missed it last time.
_________________________
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#1496967 - 02/04/2019 13:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Models are getting aggressive with this system atm. Agree dont need another shutting down industry or affecting areas already affected by Veronica.

That said cams thinks quite alot of dry dusty air may be rolling off the continent into the indo.


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#1496968 - 02/04/2019 13:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Yes Pops see what happens by the weekend.
Definitely a big increase in moisture to the North east and dry air disappearing pretty fast too.

Vorts not sure about all that dust blowing around ...theres no sign of any dust here ...not much wind around and sky is as blue as.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1496975 - 02/04/2019 14:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
sounding (forecast) dry air with upto 30kts off upper shear atm.
thinks it maybe a very fast moving system.




yes be interesting to see what does actually play out Des,
tossing a coin here atm.

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#1496983 - 02/04/2019 18:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I just want a period of big fast moving thunderstorms preferably on sunset or early morning. Around 150mm of rain and at least 24hrs of gale to storm force winds as it rolls past. I will be happy then before 8 months of sun.
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#1496988 - 02/04/2019 18:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Sounds good Pops we could have a whole night or two of heavy to very rain about 120mms to help clean my roof as its hasn't had that this year.
When its all finished after a couple of weeks then the winds blows about 10kms/hr from the east and the nights cool down beautifully.
Then the world will be good again for the rest of the dry...
and we can all go fishing and swimming and have some awesome beach barbys...
Don't think that's too much to ask for...
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1496993 - 02/04/2019 19:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
00z EC thinks maybe upto 230 km gusts around the core of the model storm. Yikes



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#1497004 - 02/04/2019 21:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
JTWC has tagged the lpa.




as of now listed @ 20kts

97S INVEST 190402 1200 9.0S 133.9E SHEM 20 1005


Edited by vorts (02/04/2019 21:55)

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#1497021 - 03/04/2019 10:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: vorts
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Ridging for days Vorts? I always remain cautious though as often April gives that sense of the dry season kicking in with the arrival of the Easterlies only for some little midget sucker sneaking in late on the scene to rough up the feathers when it was least expected. A few models are hinting at it so will wait and see.




There is a area of lower pressure pops on the ec ens,it just dont develop usually a possible tc will be display @ aleast a -4 deviation anom.

[img]https://imgur.com/2K4TAMr[/img]


But yeah keep fingers crossed for ya.





Ok There is a -4 anom now on the models

https://imgur.com/6FXKpoB
.

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#1497025 - 03/04/2019 12:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Going to take its time developing and waiting for the shear winds to degrade before moving to the south west because of the upper ridge over the Territory .

Depending on the shear values and the movement of the upper ridge after it gets in the proximity of the North Kimberley will determine its track and strength parallel to the coast from then onwards towards the Pilbara.

I Reckon a Cat 2 to 3 max if and when it crosses the coast in the Pilbara.

Again early days but should have a clearer picture on its development and track by Friday.
_________________________
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#1497027 - 03/04/2019 14:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 168
Loc: Karratha, WA
We certainly don't need another multi-day red alert so the forecast of it being fast moving is ideal.

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#1497028 - 03/04/2019 14:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Pretty much consensus now with major global models.
https://imgur.com/6eWo4Wb
EC cyclones

https://imgur.com/wFyPOUE
eps ens possible track postion of the low.

https://imgur.com/aV27DGK
GFS cyclones

https://imgur.com/DZb3YTE
UKMET cyclones


https://imgur.com/6eWo4Wb
Ukmet

https://imgur.com/slEaVRU
FV3- GFS keeps this moderate ,then develops another severe cyclone behind this one.


Edited by vorts (03/04/2019 15:02)

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#1497029 - 03/04/2019 15:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
updated sounding forecast suggests full saturation now (no dry air
severe cyclone by 72hrs.


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#1497033 - 03/04/2019 18:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OOOOOH how exciting haha.
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#1497076 - 04/04/2019 11:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
GFS operational is hinting the two systems now in the NW. The FV3 GFS was the first model to sniff it out.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gfs....On&inithgwys=On



BTW been a nice convective blow up in the tropical depression overnight.


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#1497082 - 04/04/2019 12:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:10 pm WST on Wednesday 3 April 2019
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 6 April 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Tropical Low (21U) has formed and was located near 7.8S 132.0E at 2pm WST Wednesday, which is about 500 km north northeast of Darwin. It is forecast to move generally west southwest over the next few days. The system has a Moderate risk of developing into a tropical cyclone on Friday, but is only a chance of moving into the region. It has a High risk of being a tropical cyclone from Saturday, when it is more likely to be in the Western Region.



Over the weekend there is a chance the system is close enough to produce a period of gales and heavy rain over the coastal parts of the far northern and northwestern Kimberley. Early next week there is the potential for this system to approach the Pilbara coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low

Friday:
Low

Saturday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497083 - 04/04/2019 12:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
WTXS21 PGTW 040130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S 131.2E TO 11.2S 126.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF A
DEVELOPING NOTCH FEATURE. A 032117Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLC
FROM THE SOUTH. 97S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050130Z.//
NNNN




Edited by vorts (04/04/2019 12:29)

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#1497084 - 04/04/2019 12:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Fairly rapid cyclogenesis in last 12 hours .

Circulating nicely and intensifying.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497086 - 04/04/2019 13:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Broome might even see some action desieboy!!
Hoping the Kimberley will get a bit more wet stuff before the end of the season as we are taking on the Gibb in early May smile


Edited by Weathergrrl (04/04/2019 13:16)

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#1497090 - 04/04/2019 14:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: desieboy]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Fairly rapid cyclogenesis in last 12 hours .

Circulating nicely and intensifying.






If those -80/ -100c temps persist des, when this system reaches 45kts then expect decent RI to follow.

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#1497093 - 04/04/2019 15:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
The uppers on mealtime 200+ hpa wind profile chart shows a duel outflow equatorial and pole ward is well established already.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-228.62,-9.70,3000

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#1497096 - 04/04/2019 15:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Yes Vorts the roxy wave gave this one a good birthing and definitely bombing up in real time .Those temps mean theres a lot going up there in the upper level.

The upper ridge and diminishing shear is going to be a almost perfect storm for steering and circulation.

The one thing that's not going for him is that he may lose his moisture feed from the tropics and be on his own after the reaches half way along the Kimberley coast.

Whatever happens I expect this one unlike Veronica will move a lot faster towards the coast before landfall.

After all he is a man and doesn't want to mess around …. shocked wink laugh
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1497097 - 04/04/2019 16:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
Hey Weathergrrl would be nice to get a bit up this way most places between a third to half their annual rainfall so far.

The Gibb River trip will be good its gods country up there awesome and timeless.

The mountain ranges ,watering holes/gorges are so beautiful.

Went last Oct with my 13 yr old daughter ,camping all the way from Broome to Argyle.

All gorges had waterfalls and rivers flowing .

The best bonding we have ever done together and we had such an amazing never to forget adventure.



_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497104 - 04/04/2019 17:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Early thinking this may for Exmouth.

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#1497106 - 04/04/2019 17:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
The 2nd model storm atm looks a v/solid anom, broome express?

Ann


Edited by vorts (04/04/2019 18:03)

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#1497125 - 04/04/2019 22:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497126 - 04/04/2019 22:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 04/04/2019

REMARKS:
Himawari 8 satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical low with an exposed LLCC, with the deep convection to the west of the LLCC. The low developed rapidly overnight with deep sustained convection, but has slowed in its development over the last few hours due to wind shear. Wind shear is currently moderate (20-30kts on the northern side). To the southeast of the system the wind shear is lighter (5-10kt). An upper shortwave trough across the Arafura Sea is aiding the equatorward outflow and the upper subtropical ridge, currently located to the south of the LLCC, is aiding the poleward outflow. The strong outflow can be seen in the lines of cirrus spreading out from the system on Himawari 8 satellite imagery.

Dvorak DT was 2.5 based on a shear pattern. Development over the past 24 hours gives a MET of 2.0, PAT of 2.0. FT based on MET=2.0.

Over the next 24-48 hours, the system may develop slightly slower than standard development. SSTs are very high (29-30 degrees Celsius) and there is no dry air that is expected to inhibit development. The good upper divergence and outflow is expected to continue, however wind shear may slow development slightly. The translational speed of the system is about 10 knots and this is currently reducing the resultant shear on the tropical low. If the low continues to move at this rate then the shear of 30-35 knots in the Timor Sea depicted on CIMMS may not hinder development by much tonight and early on Friday. Therefore, there is a good chance the tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone sometime on Friday. There is good model agreement that the system will move towards the southwest over next few days due to a strong mid-level ridge over inland Australia.

Movement in the longer term is currently uncertain. There is the possibility that the system may not make landfall next week over the Pilbara coast. The strength of an amplifying mid-level trough over southern Australia and the subsequent development of the next mid-level ridge over southwestern Australia early next week will determine the longer term movement.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497129 - 05/04/2019 01:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Impressive amount of convection atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497146 - 05/04/2019 11:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Looking @ the last ir surprised jtwc did not upgrade to a cyclone.


tropical storm.

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#1497148 - 05/04/2019 12:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
noaa just upgraded @03Z
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH232019

unofficial in this basin until bom pulls the trigger themself.

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#1497152 - 05/04/2019 13:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
JTWC has upgraded now to.




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#1497154 - 05/04/2019 14:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0152 UTC 05/04/2019
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 21U

Tropical low 21U was located using visible satellite imagery and radar - the
0000UTC fix is fair due to long distance from Darwin radar. Deep convection has
redeveloped close to the LLCC during the past 6 hours and the LLCC was under the
eastern edge of the overcast at 0000UTC. Curved low-level cloud lines are
evident in the eastern semicircle, indicating a well-developed circulation.
Overnight scatterometer passes showed areas with 25-30 knots.

Dvorak DT was based on shear pattern with the LLCC <0.5deg from cold overcast,
yielding DT=3.0. MET=2.0 with steady 24h trend, and PAT=2.5. Final-T was based
on the PAT and intensity is set at 30 knots.

The tropical low is being steered towards the WSW by a strong mid-level ridge
over Australia which also is maintaining strong [20-30kn] easterly deep-layer
wind shear. The cyclone is forecast to track well north of the WA Kimberley and
Pilbara coast during the next 48 hours, turning SW early next week as the ridge
moves towards the east.

Intensity forecast is less than the standard rate, reaching TC intensity north
of the Kimberley coast tonight and gradually intensifying to low category 3
intensity by late Sunday north of the Pilbara coast. In the longer term, the
cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs north of the NW Cape
and as it experiences increasing wind shear as a mid-latitude trough approaches
from the west early next week.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497155 - 05/04/2019 14:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040121APR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.9S 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.4S 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.8S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.4S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.9S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.9S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.8S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 128.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC AND ON A RAGGED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF
T2.5/35KTS FROM ADRM AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SMAP IMAGE
SHOWING 32KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH (STH) TO THE SOUTHEAST ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 23S
WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72 AS THE STH ADJUSTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY
TAU 96, AIDED BY SSTS RISING UP TO 30C IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF
PORT HEDLAND. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL TRIGGER A WEAKENING
TREND DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK WITH ECMWF THE RIGHT-OF-
TRACK OUTLIER BEYOND TAU 48 AND NAVGEM THE LEFT-OF TRACK OUTLIER
BEYOND TAU 36. IN VIEW OF THESE AND GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC WARNING
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040130).//
NNNN

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#1497157 - 05/04/2019 14:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Three steering x factors are still developing atm.

They are the strength and positioning of upper ridge, how intense the system gets ,and the influence if any of the upper level trough coming through from the south on Monday .

The trough could steer it in towards the coast if it has enough amplification to do so.

With the steering by one or a combination of the influencing factors will determine if it goes WSW and doesn't affect the coast at all or comes in anywhere between Karratha and south of Exmouth.

Atm it is battling through some strong wind shear .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497158 - 05/04/2019 14:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Waiting to see what the GFS 00z brings to the table 18z was over
VIC as extra tropical low in 9 days.

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#1497160 - 05/04/2019 15:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: vorts
Waiting to see what the GFS 00z brings to the table 18z was over VIC as extra tropical low in 9 days.



After the GFS ops has got a grasp on a cyclone 72+ the error margin drops considerably


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#1497162 - 05/04/2019 15:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1497175 - 05/04/2019 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South 126.3 degrees East, estimated to be 270 kilometres north of Kalumburu and 445 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay.

Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.


The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or Saturday morning north off the Kimberley coast. The system will track towards the west southwest and is likely to intensify further over the weekend. While the most likely track keeps the system well off the WA coast, there remains a slight risk that the cyclone could approach the west Pilbara coast next week.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in exposed coastal parts between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island overnight or during Saturday if the system tracks further south than expected. GALES may extend to exposed coastal parts from Cockatoo Island to northern parts of the Dampier Peninsula from Saturday evening.
Tides may be higher than expected between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island on Saturday.
Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 1800 05 APR 2019):

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497176 - 05/04/2019 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bloody ridging for days came back. Bugger it. Probably won't even get a storm out if it now. How disappointing.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1497195 - 06/04/2019 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1854 UTC 05/04/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Wallace

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Wallace has shown good development in the last 6 hours and has
reached tropical cyclone intensity. The position of the system is based on
animated IR imagery and extrapolation from a GMI microwave pass at 15:41UTC.
There is moderate confidence in the position, with deep convection now occuring
in all quadrants, obscuring the LLCC. An surface observation around 65nm
northeast of the system showed winds to 34 knots in the last 2 hours.

Subjective Dvorak analysis yields DT of 3.0 based on a shear pattern with centre
>1/3 of a degree inside the strong temperature gradient. Raw ADT values from
NESDIS are around 3.0, with CI adjusted down to 2.7 due to constraints. MET is
3.0 with a D trend in the last 24 hours. FT is set at 3.0, with final intensity
estimate 40 kntos [10-min].

The environmental conditions are marginally favourable for development in the
short term, with vertical shear in the range of 20-30 knots from the
east-northeast due to the strong mid-level ridge to the south. SSTs are >30C in
the area. Upper level wind analysis from CIMSS shows good poleward outflow. The
mid-level ridge will steer TC Wallace to the west-southwest over the coming
days, with a moderate to strong shear environment likely to persist on account
of the strong upper level northeasterly winds.

Recent NWP model runs support a track well offshore from the Pilbara coast, with
only a slight risk of coastal impacts around NW Cape towards the middle of next
week. A gradual intensification to category 3 by late Sunday or early Monday is
expected as the system moves closer to the ridge axis, with shear dropping to
the moderate range. In the longer term, the cyclone is expected to weaken
offshore to the west of the continent as it moves over cooler SSTs and is
affected by increasing wind shear associated with a mid-latitude trough.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497227 - 07/04/2019 08:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Could get some weather from the trailing low. A fujiwara can radically change the direction of a tropical lows movement.



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#1497232 - 07/04/2019 10:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/2075720-broome/ensemble/euro/precipitation


https://imgur.com/6QYWT2L
850 theta e


Could be garden variety showers or a good soaking if the 2nd lpa
area dances further east.

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#1497236 - 07/04/2019 13:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 120.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND ON A 052232Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES, THOUGH THE APRF ESTIMATE INCREASED TO T3.5 (55
KTS) AND A 052233Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 50 KTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE
OF THE FORECAST WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TC 23S
SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS VWS
GRADUALLY DECREASES, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE LATE-TERM
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX, WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST
AND BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE ANOTHER
STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE WEAKENED, AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST,
AND LATER, RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT
310 NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR. GALWEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK BETWEEN
THE STRS WHILE ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND GFS INDICATE A STEADY
WESTWARD TRACK, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED NORTH TOWARDS
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE BREAK IN THE
STRS TO DEVELOP BY TAU 72 EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, WHICH DOES NOT PREDICT
THE BREAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK, FAVORING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OR SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE
STR TO THE WEST AS DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCES INSTEAD.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS STAY NORTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND MAINTAIN A FASTER TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS, AND SLOWS AT
LATER TAUS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MOVING
OVERHEAD. IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY THE OUTLIER NAVGEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN





https://imgur.com/mpT2zPr

A poorly organised tc would describe it in a nutshell.

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#1497309 - 09/04/2019 13:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Humm can 98S INVEST stay alive and do enough to get a minimal
cyclone classification @ the tail end of the season.


EC atm thinks maybe.
https://imgur.com/GgIud49


If so a tc minimal tc would be Ann if named..

Ann could be quite worked up and moist.
https://imgur.com/BtPk8OK

https://imgur.com/wPkSd3J

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#1497320 - 09/04/2019 16:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Ok Wallace going through the death throes.

Dry air is encircling the system from the west around to the north. Northerly shear is expected to entrain
dry air into the system over the next 24 hours leading to steady weakening modulated by diurnal influences.

Wallace is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday afternoon or evening, with gales potentially persisting in southern quadrants
into Thursday morning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1502447 - 09/07/2019 10:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 331
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hi guys - probs wrong spot but wasn't sure where to find you all.

Desie, Popeye, Weathergrrl, Vorts, Blanched etc (sorry for all those I've missed!) will you guys be moving across to the forum at Ski.com? I love lurking in these tropical threads with the odd small contribution, I don't know what I'll do this summer without you guys! Can't let the eastern staters have all the fun with their poxy little systems poke

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#1502459 - 09/07/2019 14:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
A number of us eastern northerners are moving over to The Australian Weather Forum.
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=2471

They have made changes to accommodate us, so I think it's definitely worth giving it a try.

I hope we can all manage to find each other. Probably won't find out til some exciting weather happens again, eventually...


Edited by cold@28 (09/07/2019 14:08)

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#1502473 - 09/07/2019 16:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome
Hi Leelee

Yes not sure .may be better if we cut ties with the East Coast.

..I guess we could always start up our own FB Pilbara /Kimberley weather site like Popeye has started for Broome
with the Broome Weather Group...

https://www.facebook.com/groups/260943044402462/?ref=bookmarks
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1502531 - 10/07/2019 08:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: desieboy]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 331
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: desieboy
Hi Leelee

Yes not sure .may be better if we cut ties with the East Coast.

..I guess we could always start up our own FB Pilbara /Kimberley weather site like Popeye has started for Broome
with the Broome Weather Group...

https://www.facebook.com/groups/260943044402462/?ref=bookmarks





That would be good if I used FB - Old mate Zuckerberg ruined that for me unfortunately. I've been on the ski.com forum for a couple of days testing it out - very warm and welcoming community and very active posts wise. They've made a section on the site to cover tropics and cyclones that could be good. There's also been individual threads for Yasi etc which could work the same way it did here.

https://www.ski.com.au/xf/forums/the-tropics-cyclones.81/

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#1502741 - 13/07/2019 12:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Leelee]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
For me, it just does not seem right posting on a "ski" forum, regardless of whether it has a tropical section.
Oh, i would not worry about "vorts" he was just one of those, that had been banned multiple times for abusing members, yet every year he was back again with a different users name. Mods were notified but the did not seem to care. maybe they already knew the forum was in it's death throws back then?
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1503023 - 26/07/2019 12:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Was thinking of going over to this site.

New weather site
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1503024 - 26/07/2019 13:15 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 599
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
would be good to see you over on that site posting your observations/predictions etc. from WA. A lot of WZ people have joined.

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#1503025 - 26/07/2019 13:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1444
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
We'd love to have you at https://www.ausweatherforum.com desieboy. smile
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

https://www.ausweatherforum.com

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#1503026 - 26/07/2019 13:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome


Cheers mate will sign up in the next couple of days and hopefully get a few others from this side of the country to join as well.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1503029 - 26/07/2019 15:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 352
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
For me, it just does not seem right posting on a "ski" forum, regardless of whether it has a tropical section.
Oh, i would not worry about "vorts" he was just one of those, that had been banned multiple times for abusing members, yet every year he was back again with a different users name. Mods were notified but the did not seem to care. maybe they already knew the forum was in it's death throws back then?

I think despite the name, Ski should be treated as a full weather community. Ski has had many tropical threads in the past, and we have quite a few existing and new members who know their stuff in terms of cyclones.



Edited by Snowy Hibbo (26/07/2019 15:36)

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#1503042 - 26/07/2019 18:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
For me, it just does not seem right posting on a "ski" forum, regardless of whether it has a tropical section.
Oh, i would not worry about "vorts" he was just one of those, that had been banned multiple times for abusing members, yet every year he was back again with a different users name. Mods were notified but the did not seem to care. maybe they already knew the forum was in it's death throws back then?

I think despite the name, Ski should be treated as a full weather community. Ski has had many tropical threads in the past, and we have quite a few existing and new members who know their stuff in terms of cyclones.



Exactly.
From all the sites I've seen and read so far, ski has the most knowledgeable posters of all.

What people need to understand is that the site is not all about snow.
It has the most extensive weather coverage and commentary of all.

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