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#1475831 - 14/11/2018 21:25 Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23
macman Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/03/2010
Posts: 6
Thought Id start discussion on the possibility of good falls next Tuesday and Wednesday. Long way off and im Bracing for the usual downgrade but it would be nice if it comes off.

Heard a few forecasts from the BOM saying it will be a stronger trough than this week so fingers crossed.

BTW getting a nice little shower tonight in Wodonga thanks to a tiny little cell that could! Nice to get another mm or so on top of the 8-9 we got yesterday and last night.

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#1475852 - 15/11/2018 11:22 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for new tread.

last system failed for Northern Country and next system looks much better is Cold upper low combine trough bring some thundery rains and isolated shower of SW winds.

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#1475855 - 15/11/2018 11:38 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Macman - have you thought of putting your location onto your profile?

GFS/EC/AccG all looking similar for this potential event:



Something to watch as the conditions develop, would be nice here after 14mm fell yesterday.

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#1475977 - 17/11/2018 12:13 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3972
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm
What are everyone's thoughts for Thursday ? Should we change the date of this thread to include the 22nd ?

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#1475982 - 17/11/2018 12:34 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Some models thinking rain up to and including Fri. 23/11 LK,
eg - EC 17mm on Fri re Sale.

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/East_Sale/long.html

ACCESS also with less activity, but some rain nonetheless.

Thursday yep, prob Friday, Sat it's all over I think smile

More input pls folks...........................

edit....GFS has an interesting low loitering Thursday for a few days ?


Edited by samboz (17/11/2018 12:40)

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#1475986 - 17/11/2018 13:39 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I think all way Friday

Very impressive that Upper low is playing with us.

Charts are bit messy between Windy Charts so wait next week.


Edited by chasers addict (17/11/2018 13:45)

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#1475990 - 17/11/2018 14:03 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Go for it Loo. Watching this develop with interest from Perth, where I'll try to conjure up another low pressure system to shoot it off east wink

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#1476003 - 17/11/2018 16:56 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Ill vote for extension as at very least looking like a ripping cold outbreak and then SW airsteam with showers will extend the event for eastern half in right locations till late in the week.Trying to keep a lid on it as been shattered so many times before. Looking like a 2 part event (3 if you count airstream showers as part 3).

Part 1 trough with bullseye overnight Tuesday into Wednesday roughly Melbourne to here (Gisborne or thereabouts on 00z Ukmet)

Part 2 from west to east across the state from later Wednesday into Thursday(maybe a lull for many during the day) this is upper cold pool/trough.

Part 3 Mega upper trough helps trigger possibly enormous surface low somewhere making for some serious wind and also showers in a sweet spot that's yet to be determined.

LOL fast forward to Mondays 00z run, partly cloudy few showers.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1476083 - 18/11/2018 20:44 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Still super interesting week ahead, models still struggling with where to bomb low at end of week and also with exactly where to place the best of Tuesdays storm event. Harder to pick than a broken nose as they say
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1476093 - 18/11/2018 23:54 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree Ruckle.

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#1476105 - 19/11/2018 10:01 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Heating up quickly today already up near 28C at 10am here in Portland. Models still going strong on this event, Access even has a follow up low next Monday which promises good falls again - could be a cold wet 2 weeks.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1476110 - 19/11/2018 12:04 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yeah Ruckle cant wait see how much rain Victoria is needed.

No nastie hot weather so far we into cool weather.

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#1476112 - 19/11/2018 13:04 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 6

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#1476121 - 19/11/2018 16:56 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Around Lunchtime tomorrow is storm chasers hobby start looking from West for development Thunderstorms.


Edited by chasers addict (19/11/2018 16:57)

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#1476128 - 19/11/2018 18:10 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1323
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gee would be nice to get a decent fall
Out of this system! Really hopping for 25-50mm
Fingers crossed??
Hopefully gets nice and stormy Tommoz arvo.
Crazy weather continue with snow to 1000m
Thursday lol

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#1476153 - 19/11/2018 21:15 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Models all over the shop, but something big is brewing - peaking strongly in areas of Vic yet to be determined! My tip is to watch it all evolve on SatIR.

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#1476176 - 19/11/2018 22:49 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Petros
Models all over the shop, but something big is brewing - peaking strongly in areas of Vic yet to be determined! My tip is to watch it all evolve on SatIR.


Not sure i've seen such a difference in the models less than 24 hours out from the start of an event, even ACCESSG and ACCESSR have differences
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1476189 - 20/11/2018 07:50 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Happy Birthday Ruckle grin a little while back ? blush

One thing for sure, should do OK compared to other rainfall events this year, could be the best.

Fingers crossed for the farmers and water catchments.

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#1476191 - 20/11/2018 08:05 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thanks I think. Looking good for catchments and a fair chunk of Gippsland. Still a bit iffy around central parts away from the coast with different scenario's still being thrown up.

Windy windy this week.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1476193 - 20/11/2018 09:56 Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 [Re: macman]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 769
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Watching this set up with interest. For those who are much better than me at reading forecast soundings, looking at this 18Z GFS sounding for Tullamarine:

The turning of the winds in the low to mid levels there stands out to me indicating the potential for some nasty winds with any storms that form. Potential tornado if a supercell gets up somewhere? Anyone else agree? Happy to be proven wrong.


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