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#1475973 - 17/11/2018 10:49 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th)
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5573
A warm humid unstable airmass with an onshore E to NE flow, an inland trough, and a temporarily stalled coastal change (which subsequently resumes surging up the coast overnight) is likely to cause showers and thunderstorms to start developing today, mainly over western parts & higher near-coastal terrain, before spreading towards parts of the coast later in the afternoon and night.
Some (but not all) models are still trying to develop some intense convective bullseyes (not sure if I'd go as far as calling them MCS's or MCC's) that come up over the border.

Although I'm currently not TOO worried about any early initiation of storms/excessive cloud cover (it currently has breaks and is easing)/excessively early arrival of the coastal change ruining things too much, if any of those do become play a more significant role than expected, obviously there's always the chance that today's storms won't live up to the hype.

Some of the storms could become severe with risks being intense rainfall leading to localised flash flooding, damaging winds, or large hail - shear and instability is decent, good W to SW steering winds to try and advect storms towards the coast, there's the coastal change of course, and although there is some capping near the coast, it doesn't look too big.

By Sunday, the majority of the activity should progressively shift further west and north into parts of the Downs, WBB, etc as the change pushes further up.
Should also feel much cooler by Sunday with the breezy SE winds and some cloud cover.

1st image - thunderstorm map (I've extended it out to 6am Sunday just in case any locations manage to get overnight activity as well).

2nd image - caution needs to be exercised with this map because I'm not sure if they've converted it to be applicable to left-moving clockwise rotating supercells in the southern hemisphere (I'll contact the developer and ask). The original supercell composite parameter it's based on (used as one of the aids by US Storm Prediction Centre forecasters) uses CAPE from a parcel rising from a layer that yields the most CAPE, effective storm-relative helicity and effective bulk wind difference (parcels rising from the lowest layer which meet minimum CAPE and max CINH a.k.a capping criteria).... but the version on this map uses surface based parcels so it's only really applicable to supercells that assume parcels rising from the surface. There's no magic threshold above which supercells occur but generally speaking, values greater than 1 are often associated with ingredients that start making supercells more favourable. This map is generated by data from the experimental FV3 model:






Edited by Seabreeze (18/11/2018 23:05)
Edit Reason: removed 'potential' from title as thunderstorms ended up forming :)

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#1475976 - 17/11/2018 11:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4833
Loc: Wynnum
This mornings 23Z temp trace suggests a temp of 32/33C to produce AND MAINTAIN a TS locally. Would also like to see a DP of 20C plus, but air has been a bit dry this morning.


Edited by retired weather man (17/11/2018 12:02)
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#1475983 - 17/11/2018 12:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
512K Marburg radar is picking up some cells 450K to the North West and down around Armidale.

Bracken Ridge is quite humid and warm. Sitting 27.5° and 56% humidity dew point 17.6° but there is a cool breeze off the Bay. Needs a bit more energy so it is a wait and watch how the arvo pans out.
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#1475987 - 17/11/2018 13:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1678
Loc: Australia
The latest Brisbane sounding is showing dry air from the 700mb level upwards. A concern?? Capping is marginal

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#1475988 - 17/11/2018 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5573
Dry air above 700hpa normally isn’t a problem even in a well-mixed atmosphere provided there’s enough moisture below it in the boundary layer. Dry slots in the mid levels can also assist with large hail if the setup is right.

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#1475991 - 17/11/2018 14:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
quietskies Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/10/2012
Posts: 3
Looks like things are starting to kick off on the 256k Mt Stapy.

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#1475992 - 17/11/2018 15:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: quietskies]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2262
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
That action out west looks like a complete disorganized mess. And anything that approaches the coast at this point is going to continue getting shredded.

I still think our turn will come in the evening/night with heavy rain pushed up by the southerly.

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#1475998 - 17/11/2018 16:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
thecatandme Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2017
Posts: 16
Loc: Brisbane Valley, QLD
We are getting some loud cracks of thunder and lightning out here at Rifle Range, and some light rain.

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#1475999 - 17/11/2018 16:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 68
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
I have had 4.5mm in my gauge over the last 20 minutes or so, but it doesn't look as if there is much more to come from Round 1.

It looks as if the Mad Elf my be doing a little better than up here on the Range.
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#1476001 - 17/11/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Black core approaching us in Kilcoy...huge cracks of thunder and just lost power.

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#1476002 - 17/11/2018 16:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1168
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Ooh gona get icy at Kilcoy shortly.

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#1476004 - 17/11/2018 17:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Torrential rain now..coming from all directions...last thunder shook the house.
Small hail hitting us from the South.


Edited by michaelmac50 (17/11/2018 17:04)

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#1476005 - 17/11/2018 17:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Yeah I think you're in for it up there Michael. That latest radar scan shows a gigantic black core.

I wonder how Mad Elf is going right now, he is in the thick of it.


Edited by CirrusFibratus (17/11/2018 17:06)
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#1476006 - 17/11/2018 17:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6040
Loc: Dural
That cell approaching Kilcoy looks horrendously nasty!
Stay safe all.

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#1476007 - 17/11/2018 17:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I'M in Samford atm, growling above & spitting. Nothing much here but the dog at home must be having a good wet time looking at Stapy. As long as it stays red not black.

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#1476008 - 17/11/2018 17:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 630
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
I'M in Samford atm, growling above & spitting. Nothing much here but the dog at home must be having a good wet time looking at Stapy. As long as it stays red not black.


I had a picture straight away of the dog crouched over the laptop.

Nothing much here in the western suburbs just a bit of thunder around at the moment. Friend at Jimboomba reported some small hail there.
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#1476009 - 17/11/2018 17:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 860
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Everybody might get something from this Joey heading up through Ballina lookin interesting on the radar.

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#1476010 - 17/11/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Pea size hail...looks like round 2 coming.
http://imgur.com/gallery/dClhvFF

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#1476011 - 17/11/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Don't forget about the SE change which is currently moving through NE NSW at the moment. Latest EC & ACCESS-C still persisting with strong storms / heavy rain extending north through the Gold Coast tonight but they mostly take it offshore before reaching Brisbane.

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#1476013 - 17/11/2018 17:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: michaelmac50]
kg8 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/10/2014
Posts: 103
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD and brisbane
Originally Posted By: michaelmac50
Pea size hail...looks like round 2 coming.

Lucky you, that's about as big as you want to see it.
Nice photos and vid,thanks.

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