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#1475973 - 17/11/2018 10:49 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th)
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
A warm humid unstable airmass with an onshore E to NE flow, an inland trough, and a temporarily stalled coastal change (which subsequently resumes surging up the coast overnight) is likely to cause showers and thunderstorms to start developing today, mainly over western parts & higher near-coastal terrain, before spreading towards parts of the coast later in the afternoon and night.
Some (but not all) models are still trying to develop some intense convective bullseyes (not sure if I'd go as far as calling them MCS's or MCC's) that come up over the border.

Although I'm currently not TOO worried about any early initiation of storms/excessive cloud cover (it currently has breaks and is easing)/excessively early arrival of the coastal change ruining things too much, if any of those do become play a more significant role than expected, obviously there's always the chance that today's storms won't live up to the hype.

Some of the storms could become severe with risks being intense rainfall leading to localised flash flooding, damaging winds, or large hail - shear and instability is decent, good W to SW steering winds to try and advect storms towards the coast, there's the coastal change of course, and although there is some capping near the coast, it doesn't look too big.

By Sunday, the majority of the activity should progressively shift further west and north into parts of the Downs, WBB, etc as the change pushes further up.
Should also feel much cooler by Sunday with the breezy SE winds and some cloud cover.

1st image - thunderstorm map (I've extended it out to 6am Sunday just in case any locations manage to get overnight activity as well).

2nd image - caution needs to be exercised with this map because I'm not sure if they've converted it to be applicable to left-moving clockwise rotating supercells in the southern hemisphere (I'll contact the developer and ask). The original supercell composite parameter it's based on (used as one of the aids by US Storm Prediction Centre forecasters) uses CAPE from a parcel rising from a layer that yields the most CAPE, effective storm-relative helicity and effective bulk wind difference (parcels rising from the lowest layer which meet minimum CAPE and max CINH a.k.a capping criteria).... but the version on this map uses surface based parcels so it's only really applicable to supercells that assume parcels rising from the surface. There's no magic threshold above which supercells occur but generally speaking, values greater than 1 are often associated with ingredients that start making supercells more favourable. This map is generated by data from the experimental FV3 model:






Edited by Seabreeze (18/11/2018 23:05)
Edit Reason: removed 'potential' from title as thunderstorms ended up forming :)

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#1475976 - 17/11/2018 11:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
This mornings 23Z temp trace suggests a temp of 32/33C to produce AND MAINTAIN a TS locally. Would also like to see a DP of 20C plus, but air has been a bit dry this morning.


Edited by retired weather man (17/11/2018 12:02)
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#1475983 - 17/11/2018 12:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
512K Marburg radar is picking up some cells 450K to the North West and down around Armidale.

Bracken Ridge is quite humid and warm. Sitting 27.5° and 56% humidity dew point 17.6° but there is a cool breeze off the Bay. Needs a bit more energy so it is a wait and watch how the arvo pans out.
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#1475987 - 17/11/2018 13:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
The latest Brisbane sounding is showing dry air from the 700mb level upwards. A concern?? Capping is marginal

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#1475988 - 17/11/2018 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Dry air above 700hpa normally isn’t a problem even in a well-mixed atmosphere provided there’s enough moisture below it in the boundary layer. Dry slots in the mid levels can also assist with large hail if the setup is right.

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#1475991 - 17/11/2018 14:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
quietskies Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/10/2012
Posts: 3
Looks like things are starting to kick off on the 256k Mt Stapy.

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#1475992 - 17/11/2018 15:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: quietskies]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
That action out west looks like a complete disorganized mess. And anything that approaches the coast at this point is going to continue getting shredded.

I still think our turn will come in the evening/night with heavy rain pushed up by the southerly.

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#1475998 - 17/11/2018 16:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
thecatandme Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2017
Posts: 16
Loc: Brisbane Valley, QLD
We are getting some loud cracks of thunder and lightning out here at Rifle Range, and some light rain.

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#1475999 - 17/11/2018 16:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
T.rex Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 68
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
I have had 4.5mm in my gauge over the last 20 minutes or so, but it doesn't look as if there is much more to come from Round 1.

It looks as if the Mad Elf my be doing a little better than up here on the Range.
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#1476001 - 17/11/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Black core approaching us in Kilcoy...huge cracks of thunder and just lost power.

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#1476002 - 17/11/2018 16:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Ooh gona get icy at Kilcoy shortly.

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#1476004 - 17/11/2018 17:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Torrential rain now..coming from all directions...last thunder shook the house.
Small hail hitting us from the South.


Edited by michaelmac50 (17/11/2018 17:04)

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#1476005 - 17/11/2018 17:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Yeah I think you're in for it up there Michael. That latest radar scan shows a gigantic black core.

I wonder how Mad Elf is going right now, he is in the thick of it.


Edited by CirrusFibratus (17/11/2018 17:06)
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#1476006 - 17/11/2018 17:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6039
Loc: Dural
That cell approaching Kilcoy looks horrendously nasty!
Stay safe all.

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#1476007 - 17/11/2018 17:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I'M in Samford atm, growling above & spitting. Nothing much here but the dog at home must be having a good wet time looking at Stapy. As long as it stays red not black.

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#1476008 - 17/11/2018 17:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 629
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
I'M in Samford atm, growling above & spitting. Nothing much here but the dog at home must be having a good wet time looking at Stapy. As long as it stays red not black.


I had a picture straight away of the dog crouched over the laptop.

Nothing much here in the western suburbs just a bit of thunder around at the moment. Friend at Jimboomba reported some small hail there.
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#1476009 - 17/11/2018 17:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Everybody might get something from this Joey heading up through Ballina lookin interesting on the radar.

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#1476010 - 17/11/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Pea size hail...looks like round 2 coming.
http://imgur.com/gallery/dClhvFF

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#1476011 - 17/11/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Don't forget about the SE change which is currently moving through NE NSW at the moment. Latest EC & ACCESS-C still persisting with strong storms / heavy rain extending north through the Gold Coast tonight but they mostly take it offshore before reaching Brisbane.

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#1476013 - 17/11/2018 17:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: michaelmac50]
kg8 Offline
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Registered: 14/10/2014
Posts: 103
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD and brisbane
Originally Posted By: michaelmac50
Pea size hail...looks like round 2 coming.

Lucky you, that's about as big as you want to see it.
Nice photos and vid,thanks.

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#1476014 - 17/11/2018 17:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
That cell over Kilkoy has been labeled VDS. Doppler sbowing a very interesting signature on it.
Just wind a bit of rain and some lightning and thunder here.

Haven't seen any reports but I would not like to be under the cell just passing Kilkoy.

Just seen the pics of the pea size hail on previous page.
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#1476015 - 17/11/2018 17:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
The main rd into Kilcoy looking east.
http://imgur.com/gallery/0WnwnZu

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#1476017 - 17/11/2018 17:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Kilcoy cops the goods again!Starting to thunder down here now finally sky lookin nice and black to the south must be the storm riding the change.

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#1476019 - 17/11/2018 18:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
LonnyDave Offline
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Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 5
Looks a pity for the big crowd at Metricon Stadium and also Socceroos vs Korea

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#1476020 - 17/11/2018 18:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Se qld in November. Just flew back in today , and the skies are a rumbling, cgs dropping, good to be home.

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#1476022 - 17/11/2018 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
Line formed behind the big black core is packing surprising punch. Doppler suggests southerly wind front stretching right from central SS Coast across the range towards the west. Coming through Buderim seems enough to maybe pull the odd weak branch down, did sea leaves flying through the air and trees waving around everywhere. I'm a bit sheltered behind a ridge and usually when its like this lots of debris and a few small branches down on top of the ridge. Doppler shows small area of rotation, not overly strong just near me, so maybe an isolated pocket of extra punch. Wouldn't even see it if I wasn't looking for something to explain the intensity.

Seems the actual southerly change is still south of Brisbane though. Does this qualify as a squall line.

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#1476023 - 17/11/2018 18:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: BIG T]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Doppler picking up some big gusts in the GC cell.

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#1476026 - 17/11/2018 18:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Holy heck, just had a very bright flash right out the front door and a instant massive bang of thunder hit here....that must have hit close, could feel the house shaking. I'm half deaf from 25 years working in construction, and that bang actually hurt my ears


Edited by Namarrkun (17/11/2018 18:53)

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#1476027 - 17/11/2018 19:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Timbuck Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Doppler picking up some big gusts in the GC cell.


Yep. Easy 60 or 70 here.

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#1476029 - 17/11/2018 19:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Timbuck]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
That line riding the southerly is building. Not much to look at on Doppler wind though.

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#1476030 - 17/11/2018 19:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
LightningGus Offline
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Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Naff all up this way, 2.0mm and some solid gusts of wind that blew up more dust than the rain could keep down. Shame too as we needed a drop, its slipping back into drought like conditions up here with no measurable rain in close to a month.
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#1476032 - 17/11/2018 19:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: LightningGus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Well this final line doesn't look anything special. Terrible month for storms with only 1 this month and the outlook suggests maybe only a half chance of another next week.

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#1476034 - 17/11/2018 19:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nothing severe down here but a real nice ending to a hot humid day great Black threatening sky torrential rain lasting about half hour and a few big rumbles of thunder to get the dogs barking

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#1476035 - 17/11/2018 20:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
A much needed 9.4mm fell here this past half hour or so as the storm past through...should help some with the dust I was kicking up mowing the lawn last week.

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#1476036 - 17/11/2018 20:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Only a few drop here. Sadly.

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#1476037 - 17/11/2018 21:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
60mm in Kilcoy. Been up at Fraser Island the last 4 days and in that time the grass had turned brown, so very thankful for that drop.

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#1476038 - 17/11/2018 21:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
In the ABC article the 2nd half of the video is amazing in regards to the wind.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-17/s...nsland/10507744

Severe thunderstorms bring damaging winds and large hail to south-east Queensland
By Patrick Williams, Timothy Swanston and Hailey Renault
Updated 34 minutes ago


VIDEO: Severe storms lash south-east Queensland (ABC News)
A "very dangerous" thunderstorm packing giant hail and destructive winds tore through parts of south-east Queensland on Saturday evening, damaging homes and bringing down trees and powerlines.

Areas to the north of Brisbane were the hardest hit, with the worst of the weather reported from rural Kilcoy, the Sunshine Coast hinterland, and areas in and around Gympie.

Wayne Muras, who manages Stanley Hotel in Kilcoy, said the storm brought down trees in the main part of town.

"We were watching it on the radar on our our phones … and we said, 'this is going to get pretty serious'," Mr Muras said.

"The wind was that strong the rain was actually going sideways, it was just straight across.

"The gutters were full, trees were blowing down in the main street across the main bridge getting into Kilcoy, it was pretty full-on.
"We only got pea-sized hail, but I think on the outskirts of town it would have been a lot bigger.


"I'm sure there'd be a lot of trees down everywhere."

Kilcoy resident Rory O'Donnell said the storm was "short and sharp" at his place.

"The wind was real strong, I got a bit concerned we'd be having a tree in the lounge room with us for dinner," he said.
Another Kilcoy local, Debra Harrip, could only watch as hail stones the size of golf balls tore apart her backyard and damaged her house

"The house leaked and I have towels everywhere, but I think it's OK — just the guttering not coping. The chook pen, not so much," she said.
Already today BOM said hail measuring up to 4 centimetres was recorded at Urbenville, just south of the Queensland border.

Smaller hail has also been reported west of Toowoomba and in the Upper Lockyer.

Storms also left more than 9,500 properties without power, mostly around Gympie.
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#1476039 - 17/11/2018 22:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
That line riding the southerly is building. Not much to look at on Doppler wind though.


Yeah, definitely a disappointing result on the whole for today and tonight. A real shame since this November like last has been rubbish for storms and the outlook doesn't look much better. In fact, a return to westerlies looks to be on the cards following a strong front mid-week...even some possible record cold temperatures through a swath of NSW is possible behind the front too. Terrible.

edit: Nice pix Gleno, as usual. smile

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#1476040 - 17/11/2018 22:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Was a bit of a messy structure down Byron way, though inland from Byron looked a bit more organized. Forecast went as planned.
First picture, looking south from cape Byron.
Second picture, sunset after the storm looking towards Murwillumbah.
Stormy Byron by Glen Anderson, on Flickr
Sunset after the storm. by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

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#1476041 - 17/11/2018 23:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Great photos as usual gleno smile

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#1476042 - 17/11/2018 23:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Had some spectacular albeit somewhat infrequent close lightning bolts arc across the sky here in Moorooka with house-shaking bangs of thunder.

Also some strong winds swept through as the band from the south surged up.

There's been reports and footage of a narrow zone of particularly nasty wind damage between Kilcoy and Jimna (lots of defoliated trees, etc).

Below is a photo by Daniel Hair, shared to the Mackay Weather Chasers fb page of one of this afternoon's storms near Kilkivan west of Gympie:



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#1476043 - 17/11/2018 23:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Excellent shot.
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#1476045 - 17/11/2018 23:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Leesome Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/09/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: North Ward, Townsville
Wish that paid us a visit in Townsville!
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When the drops stop dropping then the storm starts stopping.” - Dr. Seuss

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#1476048 - 18/11/2018 08:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..18 NOV 2018 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......20.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........85%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SE 17kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........16.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......29.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1517
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Dry thunderstorm late afternoon with moderate showers late in evening.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476052 - 18/11/2018 09:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Just 1mm here yesterday as we were on the very edge several times. Nice CG’s to out west and north however. Just a guess, but this looks to be ending up as the driest November on record! Really disappointing after the great October we had.
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#1476056 - 18/11/2018 10:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Wow what a photo, and thanks Ken . The structure was a lot better with this storm compared to the others further south. .Is it worth going to Dalby today? Severe storms supposed to be in that region

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#1476058 - 18/11/2018 11:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
That's a nice looking photo.Been a while sense i have seen one of those lol.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1476062 - 18/11/2018 13:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: ozone doug]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
That's a nice looking photo.Been a while sense i have seen one of those lol.



You might see one out your way Doug, severe setup at Roma

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#1476066 - 18/11/2018 14:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: gleno71]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 154
Loc: Roma, Qld
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
That's a nice looking photo.Been a while sense i have seen one of those lol.



You might see one out your way Doug, severe setup at Roma


First signs of activity popping up on radar now to the west of Roma...now we wait and see,
Certainly plenty hot enuf out here today

Edit - and the STW just released....


Edited by wilyms (18/11/2018 14:11)

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#1476067 - 18/11/2018 15:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
How far can they make it east ?? Toowoomba ?

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#1476068 - 18/11/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
37mm from yesterdays effort, not bad.
Those storms around Roma not moving very much. Still humid atm with thick cloud cover but no rain.

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#1476069 - 18/11/2018 15:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 154
Loc: Roma, Qld
Well i was going to post that Roma was getting just a regular ol summer TS but it kept building and building. Huge thunder and lightning with ever increasing rain and wind. Near white out conditions where I am, 80plus kmh winds which started from the south but turned easterly at the end of that cell.
Suns out again and the driveway is quietly steaming.....but a great little storm nonetheless

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#1476071 - 18/11/2018 16:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all. Like Wilyms said nice little storm out here . lots of cgs and 26mm at my place. And a grass fire from a lightning strike in the SW of town .No wind speed at my place till i replace the bearings that i received for my station.


Edited by ozone doug (18/11/2018 16:08)
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1476090 - 18/11/2018 23:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Nice pics Gleno. Good find Ken.

Noteworthys from NSW BOM's STW yesterday:
"Some thunderstorms in this area may be very severe, producing giant hailstones, very heavy rainfall and destructive winds. At 3pm, a storm cell to the south-southeast of Jackadgery was of most concern. This cell is moving towards the northeast"
"5cm hail reported at Urbenville at around 3:35pm"
"Golf ball size hail reported at Swan Creek at around 4pm."

Showers moving through here occasionally since yesterday evening have brought 13.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 4.2mm since 9am.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476106 - 19/11/2018 10:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks Seabreeze

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#1476108 - 19/11/2018 10:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Wednesday/Thursday look pretty interesting.

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#1476147 - 19/11/2018 20:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms - 17th November 2018 (shifting further W and N on the 18th) [Re: Ken Kato]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 154
Loc: Roma, Qld
It’s not exactly SEQ but I was out (further) west for work today and there were/are a few intense storms operating between Morven and Mitchell.

Drove straight through one and had to slow down to about 40 as it was a near white out. Not quite black core but tiny tiny hail as well as massive raindrops.

Still very bleak out there in general. On one Merino property, what i thought were dead grass patches were actually rocks......

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