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#1476246 - 20/11/2018 19:59 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thunderstorm potential returns to SEQLD/NENSW tomorrow and Thursday as a trough/front move through our region. Storms most likely affecting NENSW and parts of inland SEQLD tomorrow / overnight into Thursday, with those chances progressively shifting northward and through the remainder of SEQLD on Thursday. There may be locally heavy falls associated with the storm activity, probably favouring areas on and west of the ranges, but some lucky coastal locations might also benefit if they find themselves in the right place.
(Some discussion has already occurred in the day-to-day thread).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476247 - 20/11/2018 20:00 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Strong trough forecast to move through tomorrow & thursday with a rainband & embedded gusty storms. EC showing a good amount of dust following the stormy rain thurs into friday.
Good looking line already building on 512k Stapy. Anyone suggest the timing when the rainband/storms comes through, afternoon or night time?

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#1476248 - 20/11/2018 20:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 946
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Excellent. Thursday looks particularly interesting for here.
Happy to see some rain inland

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#1476251 - 20/11/2018 20:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Might be some pre frontal thunderstorms on the Darling Downs late tomorrow afternoon. The straight line winds through height and from other similar setups I've seen maybe squall line setup but the forecast precip shows numerous bands not sure exactly in what form. It's been mentioned the winds aloft are pushing 40-50kt NW'lys. On the other hand I'm looking at the instability and TTs and nothing is really sticking out but the lapse rates look great.


Edited by Steve O (20/11/2018 20:19)

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#1476255 - 20/11/2018 20:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Glad to be at home for this one. That dust behind it is interesting.

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#1476256 - 20/11/2018 20:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
From my untrained eye looks like tomorrow arvos storms potentially continuing through the night and into Thursday morning with storms/associated rainband clearing the coast by Thursday PM.

Would love a good drop here but not getting my hopes up. Mower has gone back into hibernation mode here, brown and dry as a chip and doesn't look like changing any time soon bar any lucky downpour tomorrow or thurs. Not looking forward to this mongrel dust storm either frown
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1476260 - 20/11/2018 20:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
EC and ACCESS-C currently have the leading edge reaching western and southern parts of the Downs and Northern Tablelands during the middle of the day tomorrow, spreading to inland parts of SE QLD late afternoon or early evening, then the majority of the activity reaching the coast overnight, peaking around Thursday morning, before progressively clearing out to sea during the middle of the day or early afternoon.

But there's always the chance the timings could be a bit earlier than expected though given the strong WNW (initially) steering winds (for storms) aloft.

The timing isn't ideal for widespread severe storms around the coast and it could be a bit of an embedded rainy cloudy mess as Mezo mentioned but couldn't rule out the chance of severes either given the shear.

Winds should become pretty gusty as well and linger for a number of days... this will probably lead to increasing fire dangers after things start drying out a bit post-rain.

The significant weather graph below looks a tad busy not surprisingly:




Edited by Ken Kato (20/11/2018 20:39)

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#1476261 - 20/11/2018 20:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Thanks for the thread for this event and for the great guidance starting to come through.

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#1476262 - 20/11/2018 20:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: signalman]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
This looks like a rainy mess to me with an outside chance of a squall line. Hard to get excited about this.

Are there any chances we might see a dust storm out of this or will that be ruined by the rain on the leading edge of the front?

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#1476264 - 20/11/2018 20:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Cool graph Ken very clear to the eye.

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#1476266 - 20/11/2018 21:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thanks for the input Ken.On another note , all these projected massive Lows in the Tasman , What's going on its November?

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#1476269 - 20/11/2018 21:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Are there any chances we might see a dust storm out of this or will that be ruined by the rain on the leading edge of the front?
Just assuming that the current EC forecast is accurate (there could be changes in timing/thickness between now and then), the dust concentrations would fall into either the 'Moderate' or 'Severe' Dust Haze range, depending on where you are. NENSW and inland SEQLD getting thickest concentrations mostly between 60 and 110g/m3 on Thursday (out St George way, getting up to around 160-170g/m3 in the morning). The thickest of the dust moves through Thursday night / early Friday in the Brisbane area with concentrations around 50-80g/m3. By sunrise on Friday, the thickest is around Hervey Bay area with concentrations around 25-45g/m3.

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
From the NSW Office of Environment & Heritage, the 4 thresholds the BOM uses for dust are -
Moderate Dust Haze:
Dust concentration (g/m3): =>25 to <50
Visibility: 5 to 10 km

Severe Dust Haze:
Dust concentration (g/m3): =>50 to <240
Visibility: 1 to 5 km

Moderate Dust Storm:
Dust concentration (g/m3): =>240 to < 1160
Visibility: 200m to 1 km

Severe Dust Storm:
Dust concentration (g/m3): =>1160
Visibility: less than 200m
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476271 - 20/11/2018 22:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
What severity was the 2009 dust storm that hit the east coast?

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#1476277 - 20/11/2018 22:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: gleno71
What severity was the 2009 dust storm that hit the east coast?


Severe dust storm. I guess the wait for another good dust storm continues.

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#1476299 - 21/11/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5203
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
The beautiful morning satellite image. Check out the shadow across the NT from the top end of that swirl of cloud:



Storm chances good, and for those drier areas that miss out on storms as the change moves through some raised fire danger levels for a couple of days. You'd be thinking with the image below that the AAO would be in the negative but no:



Check out these forecast dew points for Friday - recent humidity swept right out of the picture - again a very wintery look, not late November:



Images: Thanks to CPC, BSCH smile


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#1476300 - 21/11/2018 08:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
From wikipedia article visibility got down to 100m Ipswich and Toowoomba 200m in brisbane (borderline severe/moderate) and 500m on Gold Coast.

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#1476314 - 21/11/2018 10:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Below is a graph of the concentration of PM10 particles (reasonably coarse particles with a diameter of 10 micrometres or less) that was measured in Brisbane as the dust reached the city in 2009.

The dust scheme in CAMS displayed in ECMWF products currently also hints at the possibility of some additional dust haze reaching the coast on Sunday with the very strong WSW'lies blowing over the inland with the next system.
But dust does also depend on rainfall as well (if significant rainfall falls on areas before strong winds or gusty thunderstorms have a chance to blow over that area, there won't be as much dust... but if the strong winds come before any rainfall, the chance of dust increases).


Here's ACCESS-C's current scenario:

This afternoon: The first band marches across the Downs and Northern Tablelands, and approaches inland and southern SE QLD later this afternoon (EC's a bit slower).
This evening: This activity shifts across parts of SE QLD and the NE NSW coast but in a weakening state.
Overnight: Isolated lingering activity.
Thursday morning: Another lot of activity in a NW/SE band forms over the Downs early morning before spreading to parts of the SE QLD/NE NSW coast (EC has the heavier precip a bit further north and doesn't intensify it as much over the Downs).
Thursday afternoon: The band progressively contracts NE and clears most of SE QLD by late afternoon.

So in other words, not necessarily continuous but possibly in the form of a couple of peaks.



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#1476320 - 21/11/2018 11:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Hi ken.

Would it be possible for you to do a wind script for fri/sat/sun when you have a chance please. Toowoomba range area would be great.
Like a good wind event and we will be flying gliders this weekend

Cheers

Tim

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#1476322 - 21/11/2018 11:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm not sure I've seen anything like this for this time of year. Models just have one big low after another steaming across southern Australia with westerly winds dominating up here and no opportunity for any moisture build ahead of any of the fronts connected to them after the first one on Thursday. Just...WTF.

And yes Kev, the AAO surprisingly being neutral just adds to the mystery even more.

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#1476330 - 21/11/2018 13:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
A very interesting story in regards to yesterdays dust storm. The rain turned to mud. I have had many people I know cross the Nullarbor and face this phenomenon. But this year it seems to be happening more and places. Things have changed

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/dust-storms-hit-regional-nsw-turning-rain-to-mud/10517442

Rain turns to mud as localised dust storms hit regional NSW ahead of larger system today.

_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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