Page 4 of 8 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >
Topic Options
#1476448 - 22/11/2018 08:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4833
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..22 NOV 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........84%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....N 11kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1006.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........5.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......29.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1007.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 56kph at 1245
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Evening thunderstorm, overnight showers.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

Top
#1476450 - 22/11/2018 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
A clearance never disappoints. It is always on time, or so it seems. One last chance for Toowoomba this morning.

Top
#1476451 - 22/11/2018 08:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.
Those figures are also from midnight to midnight so it includes the rainfall that's already fallen since midnight.


Originally Posted By: Lani
Hmmm, yeah that was a rain fail with the amounts forecast and what actually fell. Gfs downgraded from 30 to 3 yesterday morning which was pretty spot on, but then they upgraded it again later in the day. EC had 20-40mm falling which was nowhere near what anyone in the area received. Models seemed to really struggle with this one. Shame, we really needed the follow up from October. See what the rest of today brings.

Lani: just wondering where you got EC's 20-40mm from?

The 1st image below shows what's fallen since 9am yesterday up to time of writing (7am) while the 2nd image shows EC's forecast (using the previous night's 12z run) for the 24hrs up to 7am this morning with your area circled in red. As you can see, your area (if I've got your position correctly) is near the borders of the 10-15mm and 15-20mm areas... not 20-40mm.
It also managed to capture the heavier falls around the southern Downs and northern tablelands although it did overestimate the falls in the Miles-Jandowae areas.
Remains to be seen whether it'll capture the remainder of today's rainfall though.
And then there's the age-old golden rule - if there's showers & thunderstorms in the mix, many locations will often get much lower or higher rainfall amounts than forecast:





Top
#1476457 - 22/11/2018 09:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1232
Loc: Toowoomba
Looks like a decent mass of rain coming in from the west. I suppose for many, it's just anxiety. Basically from this time last year to the end of September, for most of NSW and certain parts of QLD, ended up with massive rainfall deficiencies. I suppose the thought of having to face another hot dry summer is not very pleasant. NW inland NSW and southern border of QLD have really done well.
Cheers


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (22/11/2018 09:39)

Top
#1476459 - 22/11/2018 10:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
So is BoM sure that there is a 100% chance of a 95% chance of any rainfall and if it does there is a 50% chance of 10 mm and 50% chance there could be 20mm. Just every time it is discussed I am 110% confused why only 60% of people understand the 70% accuracy of the actual forecast.

[just added the 50% chance in as a random figure, I know it is not that.]

Bwahhahaha 🧐😃🤯 sorry couldnít help it. I bet BoM, if they ever read any of this must be going why did we do this percentage scenarios.
Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just donít get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.

Cheers everyone and enjoy whatever comes today and please donít complain because next week is expletively hot. The answer to NotsohopefulPete, which I think he has just answered to what we face next.

By the way we had a brief shower that I said may eventuate with some good static lightning. We were out and I was just looking at the car this morning and the rain had dirt in the mix so now I have to wash the car other wise it will scratch if I touch it. Brown rain drops all over the families cars. 2 daughters included.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1476463 - 22/11/2018 11:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1232
Loc: Toowoomba
Torrential rain, lightning, and thunder Here. Yes, I get confused too.

Top
#1476464 - 22/11/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
OzForecast has ADFD, OCF and GFS (sorry, I may have mixed up OCF with EC - What is OCF model?).

ADFD and OCF were going for 20-40mm yesterday morning (ADFD slightly different but close to that).
ADFD is saying now 18-32 for today LOL.

GFS often has an amount then changes to ? which is probably the most accurate hahahaha.

I'm not really bothered one way or the other, I just feel the amounts they've been progging for days really hasn't eventuated on the Downs and I know that someone on here informed that farmers don't look at models but perhaps they should read the FB page One Day to Rain and they might see just how many farmers do see the forecasts and pray on them to come true. Given that yesterday's 9am rainfall finished this morning, and very few area's in the red circled area really got much more than 3mm, it would have been nice to get the higher end of the 10-20mm they've had on the forecast for a week. We can always hope!

I'm not saying anyone was wrong, I just think they may have struggled with the set up a bit perhaps? Seem to have been closer to the NSW setup maybe?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
#1476467 - 22/11/2018 11:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Lani
OzForecast has ADFD, OCF and GFS (sorry, I may have mixed up OCF with EC - What is OCF model?).

ADFD and OCF were going for 20-40mm yesterday morning (ADFD slightly different but close to that).
ADFD is saying now 18-32 for today LOL.

GFS often has an amount then changes to ? which is probably the most accurate hahahaha.

I'm not really bothered one way or the other, I just feel the amounts they've been progging for days really hasn't eventuated on the Downs and I know that someone on here informed that farmers don't look at models but perhaps they should read the FB page One Day to Rain and they might see just how many farmers do see the forecasts and pray on them to come true. Given that yesterday's 9am rainfall finished this morning, and very few area's in the red circled area really got much more than 3mm, it would have been nice to get the higher end of the 10-20mm they've had on the forecast for a week. We can always hope!

I'm not saying anyone was wrong, I just think they may have struggled with the set up a bit perhaps? Seem to have been closer to the NSW setup maybe?


OCF is the system that uses all the main models. For rainfall amounts, it's a simple average of all the main models.
ADFD is the Bureau's official forecast data (the end result of combining the models that the forecaster selects for each weather parameter before being manually adjusted).

Your comment re the ? for GFS made me chuckle laugh

BTW some nice dusty images coming out of various webcams around Sydney now. Visibility at the airport down to 5000m last time I checked too.

Top
#1476470 - 22/11/2018 11:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
I thought you'd like that Ken.

I can say now though, it is very, very black on the horizon now and looks good on the radar so happy to get the rain today instead of yesterday grin
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
#1476471 - 22/11/2018 11:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 24
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.

Having said that there is a band of showers approaching, whether it reaches Brisbane hard to say, looks like it could miss to the south. Even so can't see 10-20mm coming from it and given the forecast of the afternoon clearing it look like another case of overestimation.

Top
#1476472 - 22/11/2018 11:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.


No, you said
"Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?"

Top
#1476473 - 22/11/2018 11:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 24
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just donít get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.


I would question the value of a method if the average person is confused by it. Logically when people see 10mm-20mm forecast they expect they will at least get 10mm. It's simply confusing and illogical to suggest this really means only a 50% of 10mm. If that's the case the forecast should be 0-20mm.

Top
#1476474 - 22/11/2018 11:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Torrential rain, lightning, and thunder Here. Yes, I get confused too.


That is an impressive squall line that is showing up Pete.
Time to crank up the laptop because the Doppler is spectacular and the iPad is useless with imgur etc.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1476476 - 22/11/2018 11:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument. It's not rocket science. One doesn't have to be a weather nerd to understand that there's a certain chance of any rainfall occurring and if it does rain, then a certain range of amounts is likely.

Many other countries around the world have used chance of rain in their forecasts for many years without as much drama as this... but people here still seem to have enormous trouble grasping it and overthink it.

Top
#1476478 - 22/11/2018 11:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 24
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.


No, you said
"Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?"


So if does rain (95%) then there WILL be (100% chance) of 10-20mm? But it's not right, only 50% of 10mm. So why list a rainfall range of 10-20mm when the actual range they mean is 0-20mm?

Top
#1476479 - 22/11/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 24
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument. It's not rocket science. One doesn't have to be a weather nerd to understand that there's a certain chance of any rainfall occurring and if it does rain, then a certain range of amounts is likely.

Many other countries around the world have used chance of rain in their forecasts for many years without as much drama as this... but people here still seem to have enormous trouble grasping it and overthink it.


If's it's such a simple and logical system why are so many people confused by it? Maybe because it's not simple and logical? Why state 10-20mm of rainfall when they really mean 0-20mm?

Top
#1476480 - 22/11/2018 11:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just donít get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.


I would question the value of a method if the average person is confused by it. Logically when people see 10mm-20mm forecast they expect they will at least get 10mm. It's simply confusing and illogical to suggest this really means only a 50% of 10mm. If that's the case the forecast should be 0-20mm.


Did you actually read carefully what I wrote. The 50% was just a rubbish number I threw in there hence the explanation in the brackets.
I was just throwing percentages around as a joke.
Ken has explained so many times and others as well as posting the BoM explanation. Plus to answer your 1st question look at the radar for where the possible rain is coming from.
Cheers.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1476481 - 22/11/2018 11:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 24
Now lets looks at next Tuesdays forecase, 50% chance, 0-3mm
So if does rain there's a 50% of 0mm? So how can it rain yet produce 0mm? Fail

Top
#1476482 - 22/11/2018 11:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 24
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just donít get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.


I would question the value of a method if the average person is confused by it. Logically when people see 10mm-20mm forecast they expect they will at least get 10mm. It's simply confusing and illogical to suggest this really means only a 50% of 10mm. If that's the case the forecast should be 0-20mm.


Did you actually read carefully what I wrote. The 50% was just a rubbish number I threw in there hence the explanation in the brackets.
I was just throwing percentages around as a joke.
Ken has explained so many times and others as well as posting the BoM explanation. Plus to answer your 1st question look at the radar for where the possible rain is coming from.
Cheers.

Sorry I was referring to SeaBreeze's comment that 10-20mm means only 50% of 10mm

Top
#1476483 - 22/11/2018 11:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Oh sweet lord, give me a break.
It means 95% chance of ANY rainfall... and if it does rain, the most likely amounts are 10-20mm. Full stop. End of story. Seriously, how hard is that to understand???

Top
Page 4 of 8 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >


Who's Online
22 registered (Night Rain, Wezza, paj, Stormy3, gberg, TrentG, kizz, Pacman, pagey, Mathew, damn_ummmm, whynot, Colin Maitland, Neata, GringosRain, Flowin, wetdreams, ThunderBob, Raindammit, woodhouse, liberator, 1 invisible), 268 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Conor McDonald, dmhwce, LittleDavey83, Michael Lee, Nero
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24026 Topics
1506145 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image