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#1476484 - 22/11/2018 11:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Oh sweet lord, give me a break.
It means 95% chance of ANY rainfall... and if it does rain, the most likely amounts are 10-20mm. Full stop. End of story. Seriously, how hard is that to understand???


Define "most likely" please. In % terms.
Seabreeze states there's only a 50% chance of getting more than 10mm. 50% is not "most likely", it's 50/50


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 11:45)

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#1476485 - 22/11/2018 11:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandbank Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 25
Dude.....it's indicative of a likely amount if it rains. Please.

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#1476486 - 22/11/2018 11:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument. It's not rocket science. One doesn't have to be a weather nerd to understand that there's a certain chance of any rainfall occurring and if it does rain, then a certain range of amounts is likely.

Many other countries around the world have used chance of rain in their forecasts for many years without as much drama as this... but people here still seem to have enormous trouble grasping it and overthink it.


I totally agree. It quite astonishing how people find it confusing. Iíd bet my bank account and all my shares that if we changed it them same people would get that confused as well.
I asked my a whole lot of my family and friends ( 17 people) at a bbq about 2 months ago none of which give 2 flying ducks about weather and 99% understood it fineíand the 2 that didnít took 3 goes to get there licence. The fact is you can not please everyone.
The system as it is works fine for 90% of the population.


Looking great and things are going to get wild here very shortly. Hope everyone get a drop

Cheers

Tim

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#1476487 - 22/11/2018 11:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
radar and doppler as well as STW for this system





Weather Situation:

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 10:20 am, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Gatton, the area between Boonah and Beaudesert, Harrisville, Peak Crossing, Grandchester and Helidon. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect Ipswich, Beaudesert, Laidley, Springbrook, Lake Manchester, Lowood and Fernvale by 10:55 am and Brisbane CBD, Coolangatta, Beenleigh, Logan City, Esk, Aspley and Albany Creek by 11:25 am.

Damaging winds are likely.

_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476488 - 22/11/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Sandbank]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Sandbank
Dude.....it's indicative of a likely amount if it rains. Please.



So 10-20mm really means you have 50% chance of 10mm or less? So really it should say 0-20mm to be logical. Why state 10-20mm when the most likely outcome is only 10mm and there's a 50% of getting less than this? And you wonder why it's confusing to most people?

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#1476489 - 22/11/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Now lets looks at next Tuesdays forecase, 50% chance, 0-3mm
So if does rain there's a 50% of 0mm? So how can it rain yet produce 0mm? Fail


A few drops are still rain but don't really accumulate to more than 0mm (probably something like 0.01mm rounded to 0mm).


Edited by Ahab (22/11/2018 11:51)

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#1476490 - 22/11/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 82
I can honestly say that if there is a 95% chance of a severe storm, then there is a 100% chance that I am never home to properly enjoy it because I am stuck in a cubicle at work!

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#1476491 - 22/11/2018 11:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 82
Seriously. Plucka99 - I get that you want this to go your way, but pick your battles. Ken is arguably one of the most knowledgeable people on this forum.

I think you just need to agree to disagree.

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#1476492 - 22/11/2018 11:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Stating a 10-20mm outcome is overstating on the upper end if you really mean only a 50% chance of 10mm or less. Basic logic/statistics.


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 12:01)

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#1476494 - 22/11/2018 11:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Stormwalker]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
I can honestly say that if there is a 95% chance of a severe storm, then there is a 100% chance that I am never home to properly enjoy it because I am stuck in a cubicle at work!



Hahah. Love it.

We just got a good burst , horizontal rain and was enough to over flowing the gutters. Short and sharp.

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#1476495 - 22/11/2018 11:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Pete, a nice little dump here too with lightning and thunder. Not at home, so I have no idea how much fell. The official gauge here states 5mm this morning. I can tell you we had more than 5mm on the west end of town judging by the radar. Even in the CBD here, we had more than the official gauge, located at the Hermitage. We had 7.5mm yesterday, so not all that bad for this event. Having said that, it looks like Warwick will smash the record for driest November on record!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1476496 - 22/11/2018 12:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Stormwalker]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Seriously. Plucka99 - I get that you want this to go your way, but pick your battles. Ken is arguably one of the most knowledgeable people on this forum.

I think you just need to agree to disagree.


I don't doubt that and not trying to pick fights. This will be my last comment on this but I believe I have made a logically sound argument and that this confusion is obviously not just with me but a good % of the public. If you're going to provide a public service then you should present the data in a logical format that avoids confusion as I believe as it stands it does neither.

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#1476497 - 22/11/2018 12:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Pete, a nice little dump here too with lightning and thunder. Not at home, so I have no idea how much fell. The official gauge here states 5mm this morning. I can tell you we had more than 5mm on the west end of town judging by the radar. Even in the CBD here, we had more than the official gauge, located at the Hermitage. We had 7.5mm yesterday, so not all that bad for this event. Having said that, it looks like Warwick will smash the record for driest November on record!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1476499 - 22/11/2018 12:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Toowoomba
I suppose that is both good and bad news Michael.

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#1476500 - 22/11/2018 12:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Seriously. Plucka99 - I get that you want this to go your way, but pick your battles. Ken is arguably one of the most knowledgeable people on this forum.

I think you just need to agree to disagree.


I don't doubt that and not trying to pick fights. This will be my last comment on this but I believe I have made a logically sound argument and that this confusion is obviously not just with me but a good % of the public. If you're going to provide a public service then you should present the data in a logical format that avoids confusion as I believe as it stands it does neither.


The elogical part is you keep on going on about something 99% of the population have no problem understanding.

Letís agree to move on to more interesting things like the storms we are having right now.

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#1476501 - 22/11/2018 12:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.
Have a read of the link at the end of my post from BOM to appreciate the meaning behind the numbers. I guess the 50%, 25% thing isn't particularly important for Joe Public to understand, but that the 'any rain' chance percentage shouldn't be confused with the likelihood of the rainfall ranges displayed occurring (though us weather folk may appreciate the breakdown of it all). It probably doesn't help that with the way they're displayed they look like they should be directly related to each other.

Personally, I've recently come to think they should get rid of the rainfall ranges in the city/town forecasts (though keep them in places like MetEye where the more meteorologically-minded might venture), and to save confusion just have the 'any rain' chance percentage in those city/town forecasts.

The forecasts get misunderstood but it's difficult to put something that can be complex and uncertain into a brief, simple format that Joe Public might understand.

http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/209/right-as-rain-how-to-interpret-the-daily-rainfall-forecast/
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476502 - 22/11/2018 12:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
The storm system is moving pretty quickly. The Westerlies must be pretty strong pushing it along which is pretty obvious. Oakey peaked at 78KM/ and Toowoomba 65 KM/H.

Looking at SO2 mass and there appears to be a bit of dust following behind this system, no where near that of NSW or Sydney though, but probably enough to affect someone with respiratory problems.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476503 - 22/11/2018 12:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 10
Gotta admit, it's been pretty amusing watching this line weaken frame by frame as it approaches Brisbane city. Pretty standard I guess!

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#1476506 - 22/11/2018 12:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
If I read the Bom article on how to interpret rain correctly then 10-20mm means a 50% chance of less than 10, a 25% chance of more than 20mm, and only a 25% chance of between 10 and 20 mm.

It is called possible rainfall and not likely rainfall, so the fact that there is a 75% chance that rainfall will be outside the range is consistent with the wording, but I do think its a bit odd.

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#1476510 - 22/11/2018 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Pretty nice storm. Strong gusts at the start and lots of heavy rain. The winds did appear to lessen on approach to the coast though. I've never seen Doppler wind that high in a squall line in SEQ.

83 kph gusts at Archerfield and Gold Coast Seaway.

Will be interesting to see the dust haze with the clear skies behind the front later this afternoon.


Edited by Nature's Fury (22/11/2018 12:54)

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