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#1476511 - 22/11/2018 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Showers started Wynnum North 1150.
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#1476513 - 22/11/2018 13:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
The Storm cell over the Airport/Luggage Point looked pretty spectacular from here. I couldn’t capture much even with the zoom. The webcams are not bringing up the time lapses but the Valley may have looked good.

70km/h wind recorded at the airport.

Very nice rain here with some wind. Rain was horizontal on a few occasions. Just mowed the lawn this morning so very nice. Unfortunately by next Wednesday with the heat it will look dead and be a dust bowl again.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/quee...c24e3b0b3c505e0


Edited by Colin Maitland (22/11/2018 13:23)
Edit Reason: Added newspaper link
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#1476514 - 22/11/2018 13:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Wight Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Montville, QLD
Short and sharp at Caboolture. Lasted all of 4 minutes. Sun trying to appear now.

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#1476516 - 22/11/2018 14:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
If I read the Bom article on how to interpret rain correctly then 10-20mm means a 50% chance of less than 10, a 25% chance of more than 20mm, and only a 25% chance of between 10 and 20 mm.

It is called possible rainfall and not likely rainfall, so the fact that there is a 75% chance that rainfall will be outside the range is consistent with the wording, but I do think its a bit odd.


It is odd an illogical. Lets ignore the chance of rainfall, we all get that, just focussing on the amount of rainfall, some people have called this "likely" rainfall and yet others have called it "possible". Two very different meanings leading to confusion.

The fact that the forecast rainfall 10-20mm only has a 25% chance of occurring is an odd way to state and is in fact overstating what is more likely to occur thus leading to confusion. If this is supposedly "likely" rainfall then that is wrong because there's 50% chance of less than 10mm, so 10-20 is not likely, it's only 25% chance. If on the the other hand the figures relate to "possible" rainfall, then I ask, why list possible rainfall when likely rainfall is far more important to know. So either way this leads to confusion and/or overstating what is likely.

If they want to stick to their idea that the lower figure only has a 50% chance then it would make much more sense to list 10-20mm as 5-15mm, with 10mm being the 50% chance which is what is claimed.


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 14:25)

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#1476517 - 22/11/2018 14:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Timbuck]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Timbuck

The elogical part is you keep on going on about something 99% of the population have no problem understanding.


I think you mean illogical, and where do you get this 99% figure from?

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#1476519 - 22/11/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: Peachester
Start a thread plucka.

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#1476521 - 22/11/2018 14:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Canoncloud Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2008
Posts: 219
Loc: Tewantin 4565
A few drops up on the Ranges at Malaney.... all done here



Edited by Canoncloud (22/11/2018 14:59)

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#1476522 - 22/11/2018 15:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 629
Loc: Bardon 4065
FFS read this print it out or scan it particularly the diagrams, and keep it for future reference. This is a thread about Thunderstorms and dust potential.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/r...f-them/10093822

4 mm here no wind to speak of. Mate had a cattle shelter rolled over and thrown down a paddock down Beaudesert way when storms came through.
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#1476525 - 22/11/2018 15:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1495
Loc: Kingaroy
Omg this is funnier than a comedy show.
Peeked in here cos I saw the city peeps in media were getting a bit panicky over a bit of rain & wind and thought this place would be pumping with excitement because of the first commandment "If it doesn't happen in Brisbane, it's not really SEQ so it doesn't really matter".

And you're all sitting here fighting over semantics of what BOM means.
You all KNOW what they mean, it's been explained enough times in as many ways possible that Ken & friends can think of.

I'm not sure WHY you need it explained, it's common sense.
If you don't understand it, you don't understand weather so shush up & learn like many, many lurkers or go find a TAFE course in English Comprehension.

And you people wonder why we get cranky at times.
1. ask a question
2. Still unsure? Ask a second to qualify what what said.
3. Still don't get it? Go elsewhere for answers , this is not a registered educational facility.






So you city-ites got a wet bum huh?
Lol
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#1476526 - 22/11/2018 15:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Seriously plucka99 I don’t know if you are trolling or what. If you got a complaint take it up with BoM. There is nothing we can do for you. For most of us it is simple to understand. As for me I won’t be corresponding anymore on this matter.

Now back to what just hit us. https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/quee...c24e3b0b3c505e0

Mudgeeraba on the Gold Coast copped a smashing by the looks of the article. Trees down, power lines down. Either straight line winds or looking at the Doppler????????

Just hit the thumbnail and it should play

Radar

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 20:00 21/11/2018 to 05:00 22/11/2018 UTC



Doppler

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 20:00 21/11/2018 to 05:00 22/11/2018 UTC



Edit, after looking at the Doppler I would say straight line winds from the squall line. The signature on the Doppler sweep is around Beenleigh so it would appear to far North for it to affect Mudgeeraba


Edited by Colin Maitland (22/11/2018 15:52)
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#1476532 - 22/11/2018 16:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Luv your work Kazz.
Best is look out the window, if it looks like rain,
Its gona rain.
7mm event total with a few trees lighter of branches.
Amazing we didnt loose power.

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#1476534 - 22/11/2018 16:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Geez the weather timing has worked against me in the last few days. I have been experimenting with a small cheap wind turbine. Finally got it all set up late on Sunday afternoon. I was then (using Archerfield as my point of reference) waiting for a good run of over 20 kph winds up to 40 kph to get to the sweet spot for power to see how well the unit would perform. It was obvious to me Tuesday that there was a fault (bad charge controller) so I pulled off the mast head and unit and ordered a new charge controller which is over a week away before it arrives. However since then there have been good sustained over 25 kph winds for many hours of the day the last three days, all while my turbine is dismantled. I normally would not say this because I prefer the storms and rain, but I hope we get a repeat of this in the next few weeks.

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#1476537 - 22/11/2018 16:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
ACCESS c nailed it again . They forecasted a thin and fast band of heavy rain late morning / early afternoon which occured. I'm pretty sure the amount of rainfall forecasted in some regions did actually occur. Aircraft at Gold Coast Airport were grounded for a short time due to lightning. Hoping the left over of the high cloud will stick around at sunset..not holding my breath. Thanks to Ken for the maps and knowledge and everyone else who contributed.

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#1476539 - 22/11/2018 16:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Kazz63]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Kazz63

I'm not sure WHY you need it explained, it's common sense.
If you don't understand it, you don't understand weather so shush up & learn like many, many lurkers or go find a TAFE course in English Comprehension.

It's not common sense, otherwise there would be no confusion. As for the personal attack re English Comprehension, well I guess if you can't explain the topic or debate it logically, resort to personal attacks right? That just reflects more on you than me.

No one has refuted my logic or can explain why BOM is correct. I'll make it simple one more time.

If you give a range of values the mean should fall in between those 2 values. Ie, 10-20mm, the mean is 15mm, so there should be a 50% chance of 15mm. But under the BOM's logic there's a 50% chance of only 10mm. The range value the BOM gives only has a 25% chance of occurring according to their own logic, which is obviously confusing and wrong. If the they think there's a 50% of 10mm, then the range should be shown as 5mm-15mm, or 0-20mm NOT 10-20mm.

This is primary school maths/statistics level stuff. If you nothing to say rather personal insults or "you don't get" then don't bother replying. If you think I'm wrong then reply with a logical response with maths/statistics to back up your claims.


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 16:32)

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#1476540 - 22/11/2018 16:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 65
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Just caught the edge of a cracking storm in Noosaville, Rene Street was flooded in a matter of minutes. It looked quite impressive both coming and going.

Fingers crossed we got a good drop at Kin Kin from another storm that was up that way, haven't got much in the tank at the moment.

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#1476547 - 22/11/2018 17:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Hope you got some rain to fill those tanks LDRcycles. Just saw the forecast for next week. I commented earlier on this thread that Brisbane was going for 35°C on Wednesday, now Thursday has popped up with 38°C..
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#1476549 - 22/11/2018 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
No TS at Wynnum North this morning but 4.6mm rain.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476550 - 22/11/2018 17:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Sunday could be interesting with BoM 4 day chart suggesting a 999 Hpa low over Sunshine Coast.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476551 - 22/11/2018 17:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea saw that RWM, if only there was some moisture coming from somewhere.

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#1476558 - 22/11/2018 17:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Both GFS and EC have that low that is currently spinning in WA moving through 4 states and moving to a) GFS Sunshine Coast and b) EC, around Gympie.

As someone has mentioned earlier, I think it was Mega, there is just one low after another forming in the Southern Ocean and continually moving on to mainland Australia and New Zealand.
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