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#1476563 - 22/11/2018 18:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Now westerlies for a week lolol November.

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Both GFS and EC have that low that is currently spinning in WA moving through 4 states and moving to a) GFS Sunshine Coast and b) EC, around Gympie.

As someone has mentioned earlier, I think it was Mega, there is just one low after another forming in the Southern Ocean and continually moving on to mainland Australia and New Zealand.


Yeah, I think that's the one due on Sunday (I'll have to have a closer look). Just too dry to produce anything by the time it makes it over here though. There was another major front due this time next week too the last time I checked.

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#1476566 - 22/11/2018 18:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Now westerlies for a week lolol November.


Going to be a stinker here next week if the forecast comes off, but it could be worse. I could be back in Cairns. 37 degs up there is horrendous with the humidity thrown in.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument.


Sadly some people look for any opportunity to kick the crap out of BoM.

Meanwhile ,we had a 90% chance of rain here today and I am currently sitting on 29mm. Pretty chuffed at that with these decent rain events being somewhat sparce this year at home here.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1476567 - 22/11/2018 18:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
The Positive SAM probably has a little to with driving these lows further toward the equator ??

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#1476569 - 22/11/2018 18:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Timbuck]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Timbuck
The Positive SAM probably has a little to with driving these lows further toward the equator ??


Positive SAM typically has the opposite effect Timbuck. frown Just adds more to the confusion over the upcoming pattern. Just having a look at the latest runs, I am seeing a breakdown to it on GFS extended and the last day of the 240h EC outlook but that's a long way off.

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#1476573 - 22/11/2018 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mega]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Timbuck
The Positive SAM probably has a little to with driving these lows further toward the equator ??


Positive SAM typically has the opposite effect Timbuck. frown Just adds more to the confusion over the upcoming pattern. Just having a look at the latest runs, I am seeing a breakdown to it on GFS extended and the last day of the 240h EC outlook but that's a long way off.


My bad. I always get that mixed up.

It has been negative thought beginning of November and now switching into positive.
Just another piece of the puzzle I guess.

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#1476578 - 22/11/2018 19:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The dust imagery from Himawari-8 is still picking up the residual dust (pink) currently traveling over parts of NSW and southern QLD - see 2nd image.
The webcam images from parts of the central NSW coast and Sydney today have showed the dust there well with visibility down to 5000m at the airport.

Not too sure why the FV3 is going for a short-lived spike in cool temps & rainfall on Tuesday in the significant weather graph below... I think it might be due to its scenario for some brief spell of convective rainfall (the temps in the graph only use the daily 1pm temps) but I haven't checked yet.

CAMS is still persisting with the possibility of further inland dust reaching us around Sunday from the next burst of very strong westerlies across the inland - see 3rd image showing the forecast aerosol optical depths for dust which is how much incoming sunlight is attenuated by airborne dust (basically, anything around 0.4 or higher = very hazy):







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#1476579 - 22/11/2018 19:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Luv your work Kazz.
Best is look out the window, if it looks like rain,
Its gona rain.

Unfortunately looking out the window is often useless beyond a few hours because things can change at the drop of a hat.

There's many occasions when a hot sunny day that can feel like a storm day can be a flop because of too much capping, weak steering winds, etc... darkening clouds can suddenly lead to clearer skies because you can't see the sky beyond their rear edge, convective rainbands can rapidly form in areas that were previously clearer, the list goes on.
That small low swinging back in towards the coast not too long ago when it was originally tracking out to sea, is a good example.
If I got a dollar for every time I heard someone say that an event is over halfway through it simply because the skies are clearing or the wind's easing, only for it to ramp up again in a few hours time... or every time someone said it looks like there's a big rain event on the way because of darkening skies only for nothing to happen, I'd be rich and retired by now!

The only exceptions are a limited range of certain situations where there's distinct cloud types or sequences that are typical signatures of a certain event later on (e.g. altocumulus castellanus which often indicates midlevel instability & possible subsequent thunderstorms or cirrus cloud gradually thickening and lowering indicating a possible approaching frontal system).

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#1476580 - 22/11/2018 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
5.5mm for Salisbury today as that system moved through

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#1476581 - 22/11/2018 20:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the maps Ken.

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#1476591 - 22/11/2018 21:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
We ended up with 3mm yesterday and 6.5mm today. Better than nothing.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1476594 - 22/11/2018 21:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
We had a total of 17.5mm from this event. Not bad. A beautiful night tonight, nice and cool. Next couple of days look good with breezy conditions and mild temps. This weekend warms up, but nothing too extreme out here. The moon has a hazy look to it tonight with a bit of dust around. Today’s visibility after the rain was actually pretty good.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1476595 - 22/11/2018 21:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
9.6mm event total here. Yep the next few days look very nice, mild with westerlies, more like September than late November. Will be back to stinking hot by early next week though, bring on some proper rain and storms!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1476602 - 22/11/2018 22:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
7mm total for the event here, enough to wash the car a bit as I was driving to lunch smile
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1476603 - 22/11/2018 22:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Nice 24 hour falls over inland NENSW and adjacent parts of inland SEQLD (e.g. Goondiwindi-Stanthorpe areas), with widespread 25-50mm falls. Some locations picked up more than 50mm, including Gunnedah with 60mm there.
The NENSW coast was in the rainshadow with generally 10mm or less in most places. The odd higher fall in places that were lucky enough to get one of the isolated storms.

The rainband brought 7.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am here.
Humidity/dewpoints crashed as the front moved through, with strong westerly winds developing. Dewpoints at Port/Coffs quickly falling from 20-21°C in the morning to single digits this afternoon, then negative dewpoints this evening.

The dust haze moved in around late afternoon. A couple photos of the dust haze this evening at South West Rocks.




_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476618 - 23/11/2018 06:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Forecasts looks horrible. 35C and 36C next week, no thank you. Those 10mm from yesterday will be evaporated in a day.

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#1476622 - 23/11/2018 06:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Nice pics Seabreeze well done

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#1476624 - 23/11/2018 07:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Nice pics to those who posted .
I love the second photo especially Seebreeze. The back wash blown off the wave brought back a lot of memories of surfing during the cyclone season in the 80,s On the big days it used to sting the hell out of you.

And thanks for all the graphs and maps and for Kens professional input. (Your are the only meteorologist left on the Qld/ NE NSW thread. And the experience of RWM )

Very dusty looking to the Northeast this morning. As the sun rose you could see all the dust in the air. Now for the hot weather and possible low and to see what that does. Probably kick up enormous amounts of dust and choke us all. Should become a window cleaner.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476630 - 23/11/2018 07:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Morning all,
This is looking west from Kilcoy, 6.30am a bit thicker than I thought.

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#1476639 - 23/11/2018 08:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..23 NOV 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........27%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........2C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....WNW 18kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1009.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud, slight dust haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........4.6mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......30.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...13.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....10C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1005.9pa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 44kph at 1053
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Late morning showers, slight dust haze settling in overnight.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476642 - 23/11/2018 08:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Nice pics Seabreeze and Michael. Warwick looks a like Kilcoy this morning. Currently 17 degrees, windy, with a dew point of -3. Yes, feels like September! Wish we can bottle this weather up and release it sometime mid summer.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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