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#1476246 - 20/11/2018 19:59 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thunderstorm potential returns to SEQLD/NENSW tomorrow and Thursday as a trough/front move through our region. Storms most likely affecting NENSW and parts of inland SEQLD tomorrow / overnight into Thursday, with those chances progressively shifting northward and through the remainder of SEQLD on Thursday. There may be locally heavy falls associated with the storm activity, probably favouring areas on and west of the ranges, but some lucky coastal locations might also benefit if they find themselves in the right place.
(Some discussion has already occurred in the day-to-day thread).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476247 - 20/11/2018 20:00 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Strong trough forecast to move through tomorrow & thursday with a rainband & embedded gusty storms. EC showing a good amount of dust following the stormy rain thurs into friday.
Good looking line already building on 512k Stapy. Anyone suggest the timing when the rainband/storms comes through, afternoon or night time?

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#1476248 - 20/11/2018 20:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 946
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Excellent. Thursday looks particularly interesting for here.
Happy to see some rain inland

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#1476251 - 20/11/2018 20:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Might be some pre frontal thunderstorms on the Darling Downs late tomorrow afternoon. The straight line winds through height and from other similar setups I've seen maybe squall line setup but the forecast precip shows numerous bands not sure exactly in what form. It's been mentioned the winds aloft are pushing 40-50kt NW'lys. On the other hand I'm looking at the instability and TTs and nothing is really sticking out but the lapse rates look great.


Edited by Steve O (20/11/2018 20:19)

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#1476255 - 20/11/2018 20:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Glad to be at home for this one. That dust behind it is interesting.

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#1476256 - 20/11/2018 20:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
From my untrained eye looks like tomorrow arvos storms potentially continuing through the night and into Thursday morning with storms/associated rainband clearing the coast by Thursday PM.

Would love a good drop here but not getting my hopes up. Mower has gone back into hibernation mode here, brown and dry as a chip and doesn't look like changing any time soon bar any lucky downpour tomorrow or thurs. Not looking forward to this mongrel dust storm either frown
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1476260 - 20/11/2018 20:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
EC and ACCESS-C currently have the leading edge reaching western and southern parts of the Downs and Northern Tablelands during the middle of the day tomorrow, spreading to inland parts of SE QLD late afternoon or early evening, then the majority of the activity reaching the coast overnight, peaking around Thursday morning, before progressively clearing out to sea during the middle of the day or early afternoon.

But there's always the chance the timings could be a bit earlier than expected though given the strong WNW (initially) steering winds (for storms) aloft.

The timing isn't ideal for widespread severe storms around the coast and it could be a bit of an embedded rainy cloudy mess as Mezo mentioned but couldn't rule out the chance of severes either given the shear.

Winds should become pretty gusty as well and linger for a number of days... this will probably lead to increasing fire dangers after things start drying out a bit post-rain.

The significant weather graph below looks a tad busy not surprisingly:




Edited by Ken Kato (20/11/2018 20:39)

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#1476261 - 20/11/2018 20:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Thanks for the thread for this event and for the great guidance starting to come through.

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#1476262 - 20/11/2018 20:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: signalman]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
This looks like a rainy mess to me with an outside chance of a squall line. Hard to get excited about this.

Are there any chances we might see a dust storm out of this or will that be ruined by the rain on the leading edge of the front?

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#1476264 - 20/11/2018 20:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Cool graph Ken very clear to the eye.

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#1476266 - 20/11/2018 21:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thanks for the input Ken.On another note , all these projected massive Lows in the Tasman , What's going on its November?

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#1476269 - 20/11/2018 21:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Are there any chances we might see a dust storm out of this or will that be ruined by the rain on the leading edge of the front?
Just assuming that the current EC forecast is accurate (there could be changes in timing/thickness between now and then), the dust concentrations would fall into either the 'Moderate' or 'Severe' Dust Haze range, depending on where you are. NENSW and inland SEQLD getting thickest concentrations mostly between 60 and 110µg/m3 on Thursday (out St George way, getting up to around 160-170µg/m3 in the morning). The thickest of the dust moves through Thursday night / early Friday in the Brisbane area with concentrations around 50-80µg/m3. By sunrise on Friday, the thickest is around Hervey Bay area with concentrations around 25-45µg/m3.

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
From the NSW Office of Environment & Heritage, the 4 thresholds the BOM uses for dust are -
Moderate Dust Haze:
Dust concentration (µg/m3): =>25 to <50
Visibility: 5 to 10 km

Severe Dust Haze:
Dust concentration (µg/m3): =>50 to <240
Visibility: 1 to 5 km

Moderate Dust Storm:
Dust concentration (µg/m3): =>240 to < 1160
Visibility: 200m to 1 km

Severe Dust Storm:
Dust concentration (µg/m3): =>1160
Visibility: less than 200m
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476271 - 20/11/2018 22:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
What severity was the 2009 dust storm that hit the east coast?

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#1476277 - 20/11/2018 22:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: gleno71
What severity was the 2009 dust storm that hit the east coast?


Severe dust storm. I guess the wait for another good dust storm continues.

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#1476299 - 21/11/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5203
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
The beautiful morning satellite image. Check out the shadow across the NT from the top end of that swirl of cloud:



Storm chances good, and for those drier areas that miss out on storms as the change moves through some raised fire danger levels for a couple of days. You'd be thinking with the image below that the AAO would be in the negative but no:



Check out these forecast dew points for Friday - recent humidity swept right out of the picture - again a very wintery look, not late November:



Images: Thanks to CPC, BSCH smile


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#1476300 - 21/11/2018 08:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
From wikipedia article visibility got down to 100m Ipswich and Toowoomba 200m in brisbane (borderline severe/moderate) and 500m on Gold Coast.

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#1476314 - 21/11/2018 10:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Below is a graph of the concentration of PM10 particles (reasonably coarse particles with a diameter of 10 micrometres or less) that was measured in Brisbane as the dust reached the city in 2009.

The dust scheme in CAMS displayed in ECMWF products currently also hints at the possibility of some additional dust haze reaching the coast on Sunday with the very strong WSW'lies blowing over the inland with the next system.
But dust does also depend on rainfall as well (if significant rainfall falls on areas before strong winds or gusty thunderstorms have a chance to blow over that area, there won't be as much dust... but if the strong winds come before any rainfall, the chance of dust increases).


Here's ACCESS-C's current scenario:

This afternoon: The first band marches across the Downs and Northern Tablelands, and approaches inland and southern SE QLD later this afternoon (EC's a bit slower).
This evening: This activity shifts across parts of SE QLD and the NE NSW coast but in a weakening state.
Overnight: Isolated lingering activity.
Thursday morning: Another lot of activity in a NW/SE band forms over the Downs early morning before spreading to parts of the SE QLD/NE NSW coast (EC has the heavier precip a bit further north and doesn't intensify it as much over the Downs).
Thursday afternoon: The band progressively contracts NE and clears most of SE QLD by late afternoon.

So in other words, not necessarily continuous but possibly in the form of a couple of peaks.



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#1476320 - 21/11/2018 11:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Hi ken.

Would it be possible for you to do a wind script for fri/sat/sun when you have a chance please. Toowoomba range area would be great.
Like a good wind event and we will be flying gliders this weekend

Cheers

Tim

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#1476322 - 21/11/2018 11:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm not sure I've seen anything like this for this time of year. Models just have one big low after another steaming across southern Australia with westerly winds dominating up here and no opportunity for any moisture build ahead of any of the fronts connected to them after the first one on Thursday. Just...WTF.

And yes Kev, the AAO surprisingly being neutral just adds to the mystery even more.

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#1476330 - 21/11/2018 13:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
A very interesting story in regards to yesterday’s dust storm. The rain turned to mud. I have had many people I know cross the Nullarbor and face this phenomenon. But this year it seems to be happening more and places. Things have changed

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/dust-storms-hit-regional-nsw-turning-rain-to-mud/10517442

Rain turns to mud as localised dust storms hit regional NSW ahead of larger system today.

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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476333 - 21/11/2018 13:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 8
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
Visibility seems to be currently deteriorating at Archerfield AP not sure if its dust.

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#1476334 - 21/11/2018 13:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It seems strange to me that the Bureau (both NSW and QLD) barely even mention the word 'dust' in any of their forecasts. In fact, the only district forecast I can find with the word 'dust' in is the Upper & Lower Western districts of NSW and the statewide forecast.

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#1476338 - 21/11/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Maybe they think its not an issue, people with respiratory issues like myself beg to differ.

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#1476339 - 21/11/2018 14:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Speculation that Sydney might get a dust storm with the front:

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act...16c00f3afd080c5

If it eventuates and they get it, you'd think we have a good chance too.

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#1476347 - 21/11/2018 15:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Max gust to date Wynnum Nth - N 56kph at 1243.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476349 - 21/11/2018 15:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just slightly ahead of you RWM we had 61km/h at 1339. It hit the house with a thud, since then it has been extreme constant strong winds near the bay from the NNE - NE.

Some cells approaching Toowoomba ATM.
_________________________
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476354 - 21/11/2018 16:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Lovely dark looking, to the SW. Gusty wind all day, 33C & 35% RH.
A winter looking system with this heat?
Might be a surprise in store for some.

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#1476356 - 21/11/2018 16:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
I had a brief look at the 2009 synoptic when the dust storm hit..looks different to the current weather pattern. I'm presuming the 2009 dusty never got rain which is why it made the coast so easily?

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#1476357 - 21/11/2018 16:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
For some reason the storms are favoring northern NSW

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#1476358 - 21/11/2018 16:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Pretty much going as expected so far gleno - refer to earlier post below (the WNW steering flow aloft was always going to make the initial activity favour southern and western parts of our region at first because of the orientation of the band):


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Here's ACCESS-C's current scenario:

This afternoon: The first band marches across the Downs and Northern Tablelands, and approaches inland and southern SE QLD later this afternoon (EC's a bit slower).

This evening: This activity shifts across parts of SE QLD and the NE NSW coast but in a weakening state.

Overnight: Isolated lingering activity.

Thursday morning: Another lot of activity in a NW/SE band forms over the Downs early morning before spreading to parts of the SE QLD/NE NSW coast (EC has the heavier precip a bit further north and doesn't intensify it as much over the Downs).

Thursday afternoon: The band progressively contracts NE and clears most of SE QLD by late afternoon.

So in other words, not necessarily continuous but possibly in the form of a couple of peaks.

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#1476361 - 21/11/2018 17:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
that is one hell of a system, in scale.

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#1476362 - 21/11/2018 17:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea, amazing himawari sat pic, most of eastern OZ under cloud & that low south of Adelaide looks to have teeth.
Amazingly the snowies gona get well over half a metre of snow, if not a metre.
Thats just amazing for November.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/11/2018 17:30)

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#1476363 - 21/11/2018 17:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks once again Ken. NSW alerts on there twitter feed saying quote "A large dust storm is expected to move across NSW tomorrow "

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#1476365 - 21/11/2018 17:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Nic_Bri]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Nic_Bri
Visibility seems to be currently deteriorating at Archerfield AP not sure if its dust.


Been gusting 30 knots this arvo in Bundaberg and very dusty in parts on the way home.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1476367 - 21/11/2018 18:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1476372 - 21/11/2018 18:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Is it me or is it starting to thin out north of Toowoomba?

Was expecting a solid slab of blue on the radar coming through Brisbane, like near the border.
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#1476374 - 21/11/2018 18:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Big black coming towards us from NW.
Looks loaded.

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#1476381 - 21/11/2018 19:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Fast mover with a few gusts, only 2mm.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/11/2018 19:19)

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#1476382 - 21/11/2018 19:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Bit of lightning in the cell moving over Esk showing up on Stormtracker. How far East it makes it is the question, might get a shower with a couple of rumbles if it doesn’t choke.
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#1476384 - 21/11/2018 19:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Will run that wind script after I get back home Timbuck.

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#1476385 - 21/11/2018 19:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The dust storms that swept through places like Broken Hill today have been showing up well in the specially-enhanced dust imagery from the Himawari-8 satellite.

The CAMS dust products are still trying to advect some dust haze over SEQ by tomorrow evening, lingering through Friday and then possibly again around Sunday but its concentrations (<75 micrograms per cubic metre and aerosol optical depths that aren't TOO bad) are more suggestive of a dust haze rather than a full blown DS. That's if it even reaches us.

I did see some talk earlier about rainfall and the dust - one thing to note is that most of the first lot of dust haze looks to be in the clearer air in the westerlies behind the rainband so I don't think the rainfall will help wash it out of the sky as far as our region goes.
Will have a look at the rainfall, winds, soil conditions and instability west of us to see if any additional dust will be kicked up or not.



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#1476387 - 21/11/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the map Ken, I'm presuming this dust chart is only exclusive to the BOM?

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#1476388 - 21/11/2018 19:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Storm out of no where approaching Brisbane

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#1476390 - 21/11/2018 19:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Heavy rain and big gusts here. Also a very strong smell of dust.

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#1476392 - 21/11/2018 20:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
SteveB93 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/12/2016
Posts: 15
Loc: Camp Hill, Brisbane
Rain delay for the cricket at the gabba now. Not too far from here plenty of lightning now.

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#1476395 - 21/11/2018 20:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Backed off to a drizzle now , but did come down , 8mm in even time here

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#1476397 - 21/11/2018 20:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Just skimmed us here, didn't manage to drop anything. We should get something through the night though.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1476400 - 21/11/2018 20:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: BIG T]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: BIG T
Backed off to a drizzle now , but did come down , 8mm in even time here
half that for us here at Salisbury, 3.9mm to be precise.

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#1476401 - 21/11/2018 21:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Breif downpour here with 8mm in the bucket. Nice start to this event, hopefully a bit more to come o'nite.
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1476406 - 21/11/2018 21:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Only about 2.5mm here so far, fingers crossed more to come.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1476423 - 21/11/2018 23:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Canoncloud Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2008
Posts: 219
Loc: Tewantin 4565
Just moved to Tewantin from the South Coast NSW.
Decided after a long time I’d go for a chase, ended up in Dalby to a very short and sharp storm around 3pm. Caught another one at Nanango.
Bothe were very short lived.
Seems that they were breaking up just west of the ranges north of Toowoomba.
Alas, tomorrow is another day.
Bit too late to post up shots of the structure, it then again it was very disorganised. Not much to look at.
870kms later, I’m hoping for something worthwhile tomorrow.

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#1476429 - 22/11/2018 06:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Love your commitment, yes when it's rain embedded storms and lots of high cloud, I find the storm structures are no where near as good compared to chasing individual cells with no other cloud around

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#1476432 - 22/11/2018 06:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?

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#1476433 - 22/11/2018 06:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Access - C has activity over the SE QLD region late morning and early afternoon before clearing.
I'm hoping some of the high cloud sticks around at sunset, could give off a awesome red sky, considering it will be clear out west later on.

The dust mass chart forecast on windy has dropped values on the latest runs.

Strangely though, Sydney's forecast is for raised dust, yet there values are way lower compared to northern NSW / Southern QLD. I'm not too sure if there are other models that forecast dust, other than the one on Windy.

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#1476434 - 22/11/2018 07:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?


Maybe those values will come on the way of storms later on? There is a small rain band just east of Warwick, appears to be heading to the southern area's of SE QLD - Gold Coast etc..

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#1476435 - 22/11/2018 07:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?
" Very high (90%) chance of showers or patchy light rain and the chance of a thunderstorm, clearing during the afternoon.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
"

Today's Brisbane area forecast means:
90% chance of more than 0.2mm (minimum measurable amount of rainfall)
50% chance of more than 10mm
25% chance of more than 20mm
[over the 24 hour period from midnight to midnight]

smile smile
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476436 - 22/11/2018 07:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Hmmm, yeah that was a rain fail with the amounts forecast and what actually fell. Gfs downgraded from 30 to 3 yesterday morning which was pretty spot on, but then they upgraded it again later in the day. EC had 20-40mm falling which was nowhere near what anyone in the area received. Models seemed to really struggle with this one. Shame, we really needed the follow up from October. See what the rest of today brings.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1476438 - 22/11/2018 07:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
If you look at the day/night satellite on the BOM, you can see the impressive dust storm in a orange tinge colour


Edited by gleno71 (22/11/2018 07:31)

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#1476440 - 22/11/2018 07:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Toowoomba
When the rain clears and whatever totals eventuate, whether it has been less or more than forecast, there is one thing to consider. As others have pointed out, there is going to be a highly unusual(probably not unprecedented), extended period of hot dry westerlies. When it finally ends, what is going to come afterward?

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#1476442 - 22/11/2018 07:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Hopefully not bushfires

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#1476448 - 22/11/2018 08:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..22 NOV 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........84%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....N 11kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1006.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........5.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......29.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1007.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 56kph at 1245
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Evening thunderstorm, overnight showers.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476450 - 22/11/2018 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
A clearance never disappoints. It is always on time, or so it seems. One last chance for Toowoomba this morning.

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#1476451 - 22/11/2018 08:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.
Those figures are also from midnight to midnight so it includes the rainfall that's already fallen since midnight.


Originally Posted By: Lani
Hmmm, yeah that was a rain fail with the amounts forecast and what actually fell. Gfs downgraded from 30 to 3 yesterday morning which was pretty spot on, but then they upgraded it again later in the day. EC had 20-40mm falling which was nowhere near what anyone in the area received. Models seemed to really struggle with this one. Shame, we really needed the follow up from October. See what the rest of today brings.

Lani: just wondering where you got EC's 20-40mm from?

The 1st image below shows what's fallen since 9am yesterday up to time of writing (7am) while the 2nd image shows EC's forecast (using the previous night's 12z run) for the 24hrs up to 7am this morning with your area circled in red. As you can see, your area (if I've got your position correctly) is near the borders of the 10-15mm and 15-20mm areas... not 20-40mm.
It also managed to capture the heavier falls around the southern Downs and northern tablelands although it did overestimate the falls in the Miles-Jandowae areas.
Remains to be seen whether it'll capture the remainder of today's rainfall though.
And then there's the age-old golden rule - if there's showers & thunderstorms in the mix, many locations will often get much lower or higher rainfall amounts than forecast:





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#1476457 - 22/11/2018 09:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Toowoomba
Looks like a decent mass of rain coming in from the west. I suppose for many, it's just anxiety. Basically from this time last year to the end of September, for most of NSW and certain parts of QLD, ended up with massive rainfall deficiencies. I suppose the thought of having to face another hot dry summer is not very pleasant. NW inland NSW and southern border of QLD have really done well.
Cheers


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (22/11/2018 09:39)

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#1476459 - 22/11/2018 10:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
So is BoM sure that there is a 100% chance of a 95% chance of any rainfall and if it does there is a 50% chance of 10 mm and 50% chance there could be 20mm. Just every time it is discussed I am 110% confused why only 60% of people understand the 70% accuracy of the actual forecast.

[just added the 50% chance in as a random figure, I know it is not that.]

Bwahhahaha 🧐😃🤯 sorry couldn’t help it. I bet BoM, if they ever read any of this must be going why did we do this percentage scenarios.
Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just don’t get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.

Cheers everyone and enjoy whatever comes today and please don’t complain because next week is expletively hot. The answer to NotsohopefulPete, which I think he has just answered to what we face next.

By the way we had a brief shower that I said may eventuate with some good static lightning. We were out and I was just looking at the car this morning and the rain had dirt in the mix so now I have to wash the car other wise it will scratch if I touch it. Brown rain drops all over the families cars. 2 daughters included.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476463 - 22/11/2018 11:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Toowoomba
Torrential rain, lightning, and thunder Here. Yes, I get confused too.

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#1476464 - 22/11/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
OzForecast has ADFD, OCF and GFS (sorry, I may have mixed up OCF with EC - What is OCF model?).

ADFD and OCF were going for 20-40mm yesterday morning (ADFD slightly different but close to that).
ADFD is saying now 18-32 for today LOL.

GFS often has an amount then changes to ? which is probably the most accurate hahahaha.

I'm not really bothered one way or the other, I just feel the amounts they've been progging for days really hasn't eventuated on the Downs and I know that someone on here informed that farmers don't look at models but perhaps they should read the FB page One Day to Rain and they might see just how many farmers do see the forecasts and pray on them to come true. Given that yesterday's 9am rainfall finished this morning, and very few area's in the red circled area really got much more than 3mm, it would have been nice to get the higher end of the 10-20mm they've had on the forecast for a week. We can always hope!

I'm not saying anyone was wrong, I just think they may have struggled with the set up a bit perhaps? Seem to have been closer to the NSW setup maybe?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1476467 - 22/11/2018 11:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Lani
OzForecast has ADFD, OCF and GFS (sorry, I may have mixed up OCF with EC - What is OCF model?).

ADFD and OCF were going for 20-40mm yesterday morning (ADFD slightly different but close to that).
ADFD is saying now 18-32 for today LOL.

GFS often has an amount then changes to ? which is probably the most accurate hahahaha.

I'm not really bothered one way or the other, I just feel the amounts they've been progging for days really hasn't eventuated on the Downs and I know that someone on here informed that farmers don't look at models but perhaps they should read the FB page One Day to Rain and they might see just how many farmers do see the forecasts and pray on them to come true. Given that yesterday's 9am rainfall finished this morning, and very few area's in the red circled area really got much more than 3mm, it would have been nice to get the higher end of the 10-20mm they've had on the forecast for a week. We can always hope!

I'm not saying anyone was wrong, I just think they may have struggled with the set up a bit perhaps? Seem to have been closer to the NSW setup maybe?


OCF is the system that uses all the main models. For rainfall amounts, it's a simple average of all the main models.
ADFD is the Bureau's official forecast data (the end result of combining the models that the forecaster selects for each weather parameter before being manually adjusted).

Your comment re the ? for GFS made me chuckle laugh

BTW some nice dusty images coming out of various webcams around Sydney now. Visibility at the airport down to 5000m last time I checked too.

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#1476470 - 22/11/2018 11:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
I thought you'd like that Ken.

I can say now though, it is very, very black on the horizon now and looks good on the radar so happy to get the rain today instead of yesterday grin
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1476471 - 22/11/2018 11:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.

Having said that there is a band of showers approaching, whether it reaches Brisbane hard to say, looks like it could miss to the south. Even so can't see 10-20mm coming from it and given the forecast of the afternoon clearing it look like another case of overestimation.

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#1476472 - 22/11/2018 11:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.


No, you said
"Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?"

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#1476473 - 22/11/2018 11:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just don’t get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.


I would question the value of a method if the average person is confused by it. Logically when people see 10mm-20mm forecast they expect they will at least get 10mm. It's simply confusing and illogical to suggest this really means only a 50% of 10mm. If that's the case the forecast should be 0-20mm.

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#1476474 - 22/11/2018 11:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Torrential rain, lightning, and thunder Here. Yes, I get confused too.


That is an impressive squall line that is showing up Pete.
Time to crank up the laptop because the Doppler is spectacular and the iPad is useless with imgur etc.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476476 - 22/11/2018 11:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument. It's not rocket science. One doesn't have to be a weather nerd to understand that there's a certain chance of any rainfall occurring and if it does rain, then a certain range of amounts is likely.

Many other countries around the world have used chance of rain in their forecasts for many years without as much drama as this... but people here still seem to have enormous trouble grasping it and overthink it.

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#1476478 - 22/11/2018 11:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.


No, you said
"Looking at the radar struggling to see where this 95% chance of 10-20mm is going to come from as per the Brisbane Forecast. Another BOM fail?"


So if does rain (95%) then there WILL be (100% chance) of 10-20mm? But it's not right, only 50% of 10mm. So why list a rainfall range of 10-20mm when the actual range they mean is 0-20mm?

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#1476479 - 22/11/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument. It's not rocket science. One doesn't have to be a weather nerd to understand that there's a certain chance of any rainfall occurring and if it does rain, then a certain range of amounts is likely.

Many other countries around the world have used chance of rain in their forecasts for many years without as much drama as this... but people here still seem to have enormous trouble grasping it and overthink it.


If's it's such a simple and logical system why are so many people confused by it? Maybe because it's not simple and logical? Why state 10-20mm of rainfall when they really mean 0-20mm?

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#1476480 - 22/11/2018 11:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just don’t get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.


I would question the value of a method if the average person is confused by it. Logically when people see 10mm-20mm forecast they expect they will at least get 10mm. It's simply confusing and illogical to suggest this really means only a 50% of 10mm. If that's the case the forecast should be 0-20mm.


Did you actually read carefully what I wrote. The 50% was just a rubbish number I threw in there hence the explanation in the brackets.
I was just throwing percentages around as a joke.
Ken has explained so many times and others as well as posting the BoM explanation. Plus to answer your 1st question look at the radar for where the possible rain is coming from.
Cheers.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476481 - 22/11/2018 11:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Now lets looks at next Tuesdays forecase, 50% chance, 0-3mm
So if does rain there's a 50% of 0mm? So how can it rain yet produce 0mm? Fail

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#1476482 - 22/11/2018 11:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Not taking taking the Mickey out of any one but just love the confusion. I have so many friends that just don’t get it even when you sit there and explain it as simply as possible. I think maybe they overthink it, where as Ken explained, it is pretty simple.


I would question the value of a method if the average person is confused by it. Logically when people see 10mm-20mm forecast they expect they will at least get 10mm. It's simply confusing and illogical to suggest this really means only a 50% of 10mm. If that's the case the forecast should be 0-20mm.


Did you actually read carefully what I wrote. The 50% was just a rubbish number I threw in there hence the explanation in the brackets.
I was just throwing percentages around as a joke.
Ken has explained so many times and others as well as posting the BoM explanation. Plus to answer your 1st question look at the radar for where the possible rain is coming from.
Cheers.

Sorry I was referring to SeaBreeze's comment that 10-20mm means only 50% of 10mm

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#1476483 - 22/11/2018 11:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Oh sweet lord, give me a break.
It means 95% chance of ANY rainfall... and if it does rain, the most likely amounts are 10-20mm. Full stop. End of story. Seriously, how hard is that to understand???

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#1476484 - 22/11/2018 11:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Oh sweet lord, give me a break.
It means 95% chance of ANY rainfall... and if it does rain, the most likely amounts are 10-20mm. Full stop. End of story. Seriously, how hard is that to understand???


Define "most likely" please. In % terms.
Seabreeze states there's only a 50% chance of getting more than 10mm. 50% is not "most likely", it's 50/50


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 11:45)

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#1476485 - 22/11/2018 11:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandbank Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 25
Dude.....it's indicative of a likely amount if it rains. Please.

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#1476486 - 22/11/2018 11:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument. It's not rocket science. One doesn't have to be a weather nerd to understand that there's a certain chance of any rainfall occurring and if it does rain, then a certain range of amounts is likely.

Many other countries around the world have used chance of rain in their forecasts for many years without as much drama as this... but people here still seem to have enormous trouble grasping it and overthink it.


I totally agree. It quite astonishing how people find it confusing. I’d bet my bank account and all my shares that if we changed it them same people would get that confused as well.
I asked my a whole lot of my family and friends ( 17 people) at a bbq about 2 months ago none of which give 2 flying ducks about weather and 99% understood it fine’and the 2 that didn’t took 3 goes to get there licence. The fact is you can not please everyone.
The system as it is works fine for 90% of the population.


Looking great and things are going to get wild here very shortly. Hope everyone get a drop

Cheers

Tim

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#1476487 - 22/11/2018 11:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
radar and doppler as well as STW for this system





Weather Situation:

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 10:20 am, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Gatton, the area between Boonah and Beaudesert, Harrisville, Peak Crossing, Grandchester and Helidon. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect Ipswich, Beaudesert, Laidley, Springbrook, Lake Manchester, Lowood and Fernvale by 10:55 am and Brisbane CBD, Coolangatta, Beenleigh, Logan City, Esk, Aspley and Albany Creek by 11:25 am.

Damaging winds are likely.

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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476488 - 22/11/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Sandbank]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Sandbank
Dude.....it's indicative of a likely amount if it rains. Please.



So 10-20mm really means you have 50% chance of 10mm or less? So really it should say 0-20mm to be logical. Why state 10-20mm when the most likely outcome is only 10mm and there's a 50% of getting less than this? And you wonder why it's confusing to most people?

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#1476489 - 22/11/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Now lets looks at next Tuesdays forecase, 50% chance, 0-3mm
So if does rain there's a 50% of 0mm? So how can it rain yet produce 0mm? Fail


A few drops are still rain but don't really accumulate to more than 0mm (probably something like 0.01mm rounded to 0mm).


Edited by Ahab (22/11/2018 11:51)

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#1476490 - 22/11/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 82
I can honestly say that if there is a 95% chance of a severe storm, then there is a 100% chance that I am never home to properly enjoy it because I am stuck in a cubicle at work!

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#1476491 - 22/11/2018 11:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 82
Seriously. Plucka99 - I get that you want this to go your way, but pick your battles. Ken is arguably one of the most knowledgeable people on this forum.

I think you just need to agree to disagree.

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#1476492 - 22/11/2018 11:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Stating a 10-20mm outcome is overstating on the upper end if you really mean only a 50% chance of 10mm or less. Basic logic/statistics.


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 12:01)

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#1476494 - 22/11/2018 11:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Stormwalker]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
I can honestly say that if there is a 95% chance of a severe storm, then there is a 100% chance that I am never home to properly enjoy it because I am stuck in a cubicle at work!



Hahah. Love it.

We just got a good burst , horizontal rain and was enough to over flowing the gutters. Short and sharp.

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#1476495 - 22/11/2018 11:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Pete, a nice little dump here too with lightning and thunder. Not at home, so I have no idea how much fell. The official gauge here states 5mm this morning. I can tell you we had more than 5mm on the west end of town judging by the radar. Even in the CBD here, we had more than the official gauge, located at the Hermitage. We had 7.5mm yesterday, so not all that bad for this event. Having said that, it looks like Warwick will smash the record for driest November on record!
_________________________
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#1476496 - 22/11/2018 12:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Stormwalker]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Seriously. Plucka99 - I get that you want this to go your way, but pick your battles. Ken is arguably one of the most knowledgeable people on this forum.

I think you just need to agree to disagree.


I don't doubt that and not trying to pick fights. This will be my last comment on this but I believe I have made a logically sound argument and that this confusion is obviously not just with me but a good % of the public. If you're going to provide a public service then you should present the data in a logical format that avoids confusion as I believe as it stands it does neither.

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#1476497 - 22/11/2018 12:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Pete, a nice little dump here too with lightning and thunder. Not at home, so I have no idea how much fell. The official gauge here states 5mm this morning. I can tell you we had more than 5mm on the west end of town judging by the radar. Even in the CBD here, we had more than the official gauge, located at the Hermitage. We had 7.5mm yesterday, so not all that bad for this event. Having said that, it looks like Warwick will smash the record for driest November on record!
_________________________
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#1476499 - 22/11/2018 12:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Toowoomba
I suppose that is both good and bad news Michael.

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#1476500 - 22/11/2018 12:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Seriously. Plucka99 - I get that you want this to go your way, but pick your battles. Ken is arguably one of the most knowledgeable people on this forum.

I think you just need to agree to disagree.


I don't doubt that and not trying to pick fights. This will be my last comment on this but I believe I have made a logically sound argument and that this confusion is obviously not just with me but a good % of the public. If you're going to provide a public service then you should present the data in a logical format that avoids confusion as I believe as it stands it does neither.


The elogical part is you keep on going on about something 99% of the population have no problem understanding.

Let’s agree to move on to more interesting things like the storms we are having right now.

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#1476501 - 22/11/2018 12:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: plucka99
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Not sure why we still go through this on here after all this time.
As Seabreeze mentioned, it does not mean 95% chance of 10-20mm. It means 95% chance of any rainfall, and if rain does fall, the likely amounts are 10-20mm.

Isn't that exactly what I said? Chance of rain 95%. If it does rain then 10-20mm is expected. So 10mm is the minimum expected, 20mm the maximum, logic would dictate 15mm would be the average expected. Not sure where this 50% chance of 0.2mm comes from.
Have a read of the link at the end of my post from BOM to appreciate the meaning behind the numbers. I guess the 50%, 25% thing isn't particularly important for Joe Public to understand, but that the 'any rain' chance percentage shouldn't be confused with the likelihood of the rainfall ranges displayed occurring (though us weather folk may appreciate the breakdown of it all). It probably doesn't help that with the way they're displayed they look like they should be directly related to each other.

Personally, I've recently come to think they should get rid of the rainfall ranges in the city/town forecasts (though keep them in places like MetEye where the more meteorologically-minded might venture), and to save confusion just have the 'any rain' chance percentage in those city/town forecasts.

The forecasts get misunderstood but it's difficult to put something that can be complex and uncertain into a brief, simple format that Joe Public might understand.

http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/209/right-as-rain-how-to-interpret-the-daily-rainfall-forecast/
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476502 - 22/11/2018 12:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
The storm system is moving pretty quickly. The Westerlies must be pretty strong pushing it along which is pretty obvious. Oakey peaked at 78KM/ and Toowoomba 65 KM/H.

Looking at SO2 mass and there appears to be a bit of dust following behind this system, no where near that of NSW or Sydney though, but probably enough to affect someone with respiratory problems.
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#1476503 - 22/11/2018 12:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 10
Gotta admit, it's been pretty amusing watching this line weaken frame by frame as it approaches Brisbane city. Pretty standard I guess!

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#1476506 - 22/11/2018 12:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
If I read the Bom article on how to interpret rain correctly then 10-20mm means a 50% chance of less than 10, a 25% chance of more than 20mm, and only a 25% chance of between 10 and 20 mm.

It is called possible rainfall and not likely rainfall, so the fact that there is a 75% chance that rainfall will be outside the range is consistent with the wording, but I do think its a bit odd.

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#1476510 - 22/11/2018 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Pretty nice storm. Strong gusts at the start and lots of heavy rain. The winds did appear to lessen on approach to the coast though. I've never seen Doppler wind that high in a squall line in SEQ.

83 kph gusts at Archerfield and Gold Coast Seaway.

Will be interesting to see the dust haze with the clear skies behind the front later this afternoon.


Edited by Nature's Fury (22/11/2018 12:54)

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#1476511 - 22/11/2018 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Showers started Wynnum North 1150.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476513 - 22/11/2018 13:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
The Storm cell over the Airport/Luggage Point looked pretty spectacular from here. I couldn’t capture much even with the zoom. The webcams are not bringing up the time lapses but the Valley may have looked good.

70km/h wind recorded at the airport.

Very nice rain here with some wind. Rain was horizontal on a few occasions. Just mowed the lawn this morning so very nice. Unfortunately by next Wednesday with the heat it will look dead and be a dust bowl again.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/quee...c24e3b0b3c505e0


Edited by Colin Maitland (22/11/2018 13:23)
Edit Reason: Added newspaper link
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#1476514 - 22/11/2018 13:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Wight Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Montville, QLD
Short and sharp at Caboolture. Lasted all of 4 minutes. Sun trying to appear now.

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#1476516 - 22/11/2018 14:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
If I read the Bom article on how to interpret rain correctly then 10-20mm means a 50% chance of less than 10, a 25% chance of more than 20mm, and only a 25% chance of between 10 and 20 mm.

It is called possible rainfall and not likely rainfall, so the fact that there is a 75% chance that rainfall will be outside the range is consistent with the wording, but I do think its a bit odd.


It is odd an illogical. Lets ignore the chance of rainfall, we all get that, just focussing on the amount of rainfall, some people have called this "likely" rainfall and yet others have called it "possible". Two very different meanings leading to confusion.

The fact that the forecast rainfall 10-20mm only has a 25% chance of occurring is an odd way to state and is in fact overstating what is more likely to occur thus leading to confusion. If this is supposedly "likely" rainfall then that is wrong because there's 50% chance of less than 10mm, so 10-20 is not likely, it's only 25% chance. If on the the other hand the figures relate to "possible" rainfall, then I ask, why list possible rainfall when likely rainfall is far more important to know. So either way this leads to confusion and/or overstating what is likely.

If they want to stick to their idea that the lower figure only has a 50% chance then it would make much more sense to list 10-20mm as 5-15mm, with 10mm being the 50% chance which is what is claimed.


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 14:25)

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#1476517 - 22/11/2018 14:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Timbuck]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Timbuck

The elogical part is you keep on going on about something 99% of the population have no problem understanding.


I think you mean illogical, and where do you get this 99% figure from?

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#1476519 - 22/11/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: Peachester
Start a thread plucka.

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#1476521 - 22/11/2018 14:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Canoncloud Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2008
Posts: 219
Loc: Tewantin 4565
A few drops up on the Ranges at Malaney.... all done here



Edited by Canoncloud (22/11/2018 14:59)

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#1476522 - 22/11/2018 15:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 629
Loc: Bardon 4065
FFS read this print it out or scan it particularly the diagrams, and keep it for future reference. This is a thread about Thunderstorms and dust potential.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/r...f-them/10093822

4 mm here no wind to speak of. Mate had a cattle shelter rolled over and thrown down a paddock down Beaudesert way when storms came through.
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#1476525 - 22/11/2018 15:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1495
Loc: Kingaroy
Omg this is funnier than a comedy show.
Peeked in here cos I saw the city peeps in media were getting a bit panicky over a bit of rain & wind and thought this place would be pumping with excitement because of the first commandment "If it doesn't happen in Brisbane, it's not really SEQ so it doesn't really matter".

And you're all sitting here fighting over semantics of what BOM means.
You all KNOW what they mean, it's been explained enough times in as many ways possible that Ken & friends can think of.

I'm not sure WHY you need it explained, it's common sense.
If you don't understand it, you don't understand weather so shush up & learn like many, many lurkers or go find a TAFE course in English Comprehension.

And you people wonder why we get cranky at times.
1. ask a question
2. Still unsure? Ask a second to qualify what what said.
3. Still don't get it? Go elsewhere for answers , this is not a registered educational facility.






So you city-ites got a wet bum huh?
Lol
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#1476526 - 22/11/2018 15:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Seriously plucka99 I don’t know if you are trolling or what. If you got a complaint take it up with BoM. There is nothing we can do for you. For most of us it is simple to understand. As for me I won’t be corresponding anymore on this matter.

Now back to what just hit us. https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/quee...c24e3b0b3c505e0

Mudgeeraba on the Gold Coast copped a smashing by the looks of the article. Trees down, power lines down. Either straight line winds or looking at the Doppler????????

Just hit the thumbnail and it should play

Radar

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 20:00 21/11/2018 to 05:00 22/11/2018 UTC



Doppler

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 20:00 21/11/2018 to 05:00 22/11/2018 UTC



Edit, after looking at the Doppler I would say straight line winds from the squall line. The signature on the Doppler sweep is around Beenleigh so it would appear to far North for it to affect Mudgeeraba


Edited by Colin Maitland (22/11/2018 15:52)
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#1476532 - 22/11/2018 16:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Luv your work Kazz.
Best is look out the window, if it looks like rain,
Its gona rain.
7mm event total with a few trees lighter of branches.
Amazing we didnt loose power.

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#1476534 - 22/11/2018 16:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Geez the weather timing has worked against me in the last few days. I have been experimenting with a small cheap wind turbine. Finally got it all set up late on Sunday afternoon. I was then (using Archerfield as my point of reference) waiting for a good run of over 20 kph winds up to 40 kph to get to the sweet spot for power to see how well the unit would perform. It was obvious to me Tuesday that there was a fault (bad charge controller) so I pulled off the mast head and unit and ordered a new charge controller which is over a week away before it arrives. However since then there have been good sustained over 25 kph winds for many hours of the day the last three days, all while my turbine is dismantled. I normally would not say this because I prefer the storms and rain, but I hope we get a repeat of this in the next few weeks.

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#1476537 - 22/11/2018 16:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
ACCESS c nailed it again . They forecasted a thin and fast band of heavy rain late morning / early afternoon which occured. I'm pretty sure the amount of rainfall forecasted in some regions did actually occur. Aircraft at Gold Coast Airport were grounded for a short time due to lightning. Hoping the left over of the high cloud will stick around at sunset..not holding my breath. Thanks to Ken for the maps and knowledge and everyone else who contributed.

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#1476539 - 22/11/2018 16:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Kazz63]
plucka99 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 19
Originally Posted By: Kazz63

I'm not sure WHY you need it explained, it's common sense.
If you don't understand it, you don't understand weather so shush up & learn like many, many lurkers or go find a TAFE course in English Comprehension.

It's not common sense, otherwise there would be no confusion. As for the personal attack re English Comprehension, well I guess if you can't explain the topic or debate it logically, resort to personal attacks right? That just reflects more on you than me.

No one has refuted my logic or can explain why BOM is correct. I'll make it simple one more time.

If you give a range of values the mean should fall in between those 2 values. Ie, 10-20mm, the mean is 15mm, so there should be a 50% chance of 15mm. But under the BOM's logic there's a 50% chance of only 10mm. The range value the BOM gives only has a 25% chance of occurring according to their own logic, which is obviously confusing and wrong. If the they think there's a 50% of 10mm, then the range should be shown as 5mm-15mm, or 0-20mm NOT 10-20mm.

This is primary school maths/statistics level stuff. If you nothing to say rather personal insults or "you don't get" then don't bother replying. If you think I'm wrong then reply with a logical response with maths/statistics to back up your claims.


Edited by plucka99 (22/11/2018 16:32)

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#1476540 - 22/11/2018 16:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 65
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Just caught the edge of a cracking storm in Noosaville, Rene Street was flooded in a matter of minutes. It looked quite impressive both coming and going.

Fingers crossed we got a good drop at Kin Kin from another storm that was up that way, haven't got much in the tank at the moment.

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#1476547 - 22/11/2018 17:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Hope you got some rain to fill those tanks LDRcycles. Just saw the forecast for next week. I commented earlier on this thread that Brisbane was going for 35°C on Wednesday, now Thursday has popped up with 38°C..
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#1476549 - 22/11/2018 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
No TS at Wynnum North this morning but 4.6mm rain.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476550 - 22/11/2018 17:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Sunday could be interesting with BoM 4 day chart suggesting a 999 Hpa low over Sunshine Coast.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476551 - 22/11/2018 17:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea saw that RWM, if only there was some moisture coming from somewhere.

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#1476558 - 22/11/2018 17:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Both GFS and EC have that low that is currently spinning in WA moving through 4 states and moving to a) GFS Sunshine Coast and b) EC, around Gympie.

As someone has mentioned earlier, I think it was Mega, there is just one low after another forming in the Southern Ocean and continually moving on to mainland Australia and New Zealand.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476563 - 22/11/2018 18:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Now westerlies for a week lolol November.

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Both GFS and EC have that low that is currently spinning in WA moving through 4 states and moving to a) GFS Sunshine Coast and b) EC, around Gympie.

As someone has mentioned earlier, I think it was Mega, there is just one low after another forming in the Southern Ocean and continually moving on to mainland Australia and New Zealand.


Yeah, I think that's the one due on Sunday (I'll have to have a closer look). Just too dry to produce anything by the time it makes it over here though. There was another major front due this time next week too the last time I checked.

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#1476566 - 22/11/2018 18:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Now westerlies for a week lolol November.


Going to be a stinker here next week if the forecast comes off, but it could be worse. I could be back in Cairns. 37 degs up there is horrendous with the humidity thrown in.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I simply cannot understand why such a basic concept is so hard to grasp and becomes the focal point of so much argument.


Sadly some people look for any opportunity to kick the crap out of BoM.

Meanwhile ,we had a 90% chance of rain here today and I am currently sitting on 29mm. Pretty chuffed at that with these decent rain events being somewhat sparce this year at home here.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1476567 - 22/11/2018 18:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
The Positive SAM probably has a little to with driving these lows further toward the equator ??

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#1476569 - 22/11/2018 18:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Timbuck]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Timbuck
The Positive SAM probably has a little to with driving these lows further toward the equator ??


Positive SAM typically has the opposite effect Timbuck. frown Just adds more to the confusion over the upcoming pattern. Just having a look at the latest runs, I am seeing a breakdown to it on GFS extended and the last day of the 240h EC outlook but that's a long way off.

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#1476573 - 22/11/2018 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mega]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Timbuck
The Positive SAM probably has a little to with driving these lows further toward the equator ??


Positive SAM typically has the opposite effect Timbuck. frown Just adds more to the confusion over the upcoming pattern. Just having a look at the latest runs, I am seeing a breakdown to it on GFS extended and the last day of the 240h EC outlook but that's a long way off.


My bad. I always get that mixed up.

It has been negative thought beginning of November and now switching into positive.
Just another piece of the puzzle I guess.

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#1476578 - 22/11/2018 19:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The dust imagery from Himawari-8 is still picking up the residual dust (pink) currently traveling over parts of NSW and southern QLD - see 2nd image.
The webcam images from parts of the central NSW coast and Sydney today have showed the dust there well with visibility down to 5000m at the airport.

Not too sure why the FV3 is going for a short-lived spike in cool temps & rainfall on Tuesday in the significant weather graph below... I think it might be due to its scenario for some brief spell of convective rainfall (the temps in the graph only use the daily 1pm temps) but I haven't checked yet.

CAMS is still persisting with the possibility of further inland dust reaching us around Sunday from the next burst of very strong westerlies across the inland - see 3rd image showing the forecast aerosol optical depths for dust which is how much incoming sunlight is attenuated by airborne dust (basically, anything around 0.4 or higher = very hazy):







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#1476579 - 22/11/2018 19:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Luv your work Kazz.
Best is look out the window, if it looks like rain,
Its gona rain.

Unfortunately looking out the window is often useless beyond a few hours because things can change at the drop of a hat.

There's many occasions when a hot sunny day that can feel like a storm day can be a flop because of too much capping, weak steering winds, etc... darkening clouds can suddenly lead to clearer skies because you can't see the sky beyond their rear edge, convective rainbands can rapidly form in areas that were previously clearer, the list goes on.
That small low swinging back in towards the coast not too long ago when it was originally tracking out to sea, is a good example.
If I got a dollar for every time I heard someone say that an event is over halfway through it simply because the skies are clearing or the wind's easing, only for it to ramp up again in a few hours time... or every time someone said it looks like there's a big rain event on the way because of darkening skies only for nothing to happen, I'd be rich and retired by now!

The only exceptions are a limited range of certain situations where there's distinct cloud types or sequences that are typical signatures of a certain event later on (e.g. altocumulus castellanus which often indicates midlevel instability & possible subsequent thunderstorms or cirrus cloud gradually thickening and lowering indicating a possible approaching frontal system).

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#1476580 - 22/11/2018 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
5.5mm for Salisbury today as that system moved through

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#1476581 - 22/11/2018 20:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the maps Ken.

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#1476591 - 22/11/2018 21:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
We ended up with 3mm yesterday and 6.5mm today. Better than nothing.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1476594 - 22/11/2018 21:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
We had a total of 17.5mm from this event. Not bad. A beautiful night tonight, nice and cool. Next couple of days look good with breezy conditions and mild temps. This weekend warms up, but nothing too extreme out here. The moon has a hazy look to it tonight with a bit of dust around. Today’s visibility after the rain was actually pretty good.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1476595 - 22/11/2018 21:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
9.6mm event total here. Yep the next few days look very nice, mild with westerlies, more like September than late November. Will be back to stinking hot by early next week though, bring on some proper rain and storms!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1476602 - 22/11/2018 22:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
7mm total for the event here, enough to wash the car a bit as I was driving to lunch smile
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1476603 - 22/11/2018 22:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Nice 24 hour falls over inland NENSW and adjacent parts of inland SEQLD (e.g. Goondiwindi-Stanthorpe areas), with widespread 25-50mm falls. Some locations picked up more than 50mm, including Gunnedah with 60mm there.
The NENSW coast was in the rainshadow with generally 10mm or less in most places. The odd higher fall in places that were lucky enough to get one of the isolated storms.

The rainband brought 7.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am here.
Humidity/dewpoints crashed as the front moved through, with strong westerly winds developing. Dewpoints at Port/Coffs quickly falling from 20-21°C in the morning to single digits this afternoon, then negative dewpoints this evening.

The dust haze moved in around late afternoon. A couple photos of the dust haze this evening at South West Rocks.




_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1476618 - 23/11/2018 06:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Forecasts looks horrible. 35C and 36C next week, no thank you. Those 10mm from yesterday will be evaporated in a day.

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#1476622 - 23/11/2018 06:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Nice pics Seabreeze well done

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#1476624 - 23/11/2018 07:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Nice pics to those who posted .
I love the second photo especially Seebreeze. The back wash blown off the wave brought back a lot of memories of surfing during the cyclone season in the 80,s On the big days it used to sting the hell out of you.

And thanks for all the graphs and maps and for Kens professional input. (Your are the only meteorologist left on the Qld/ NE NSW thread. And the experience of RWM )

Very dusty looking to the Northeast this morning. As the sun rose you could see all the dust in the air. Now for the hot weather and possible low and to see what that does. Probably kick up enormous amounts of dust and choke us all. Should become a window cleaner.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1476630 - 23/11/2018 07:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 8
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
Morning all,
This is looking west from Kilcoy, 6.30am a bit thicker than I thought.

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#1476639 - 23/11/2018 08:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..23 NOV 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........27%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........2C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....WNW 18kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1009.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud, slight dust haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........4.6mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......30.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...13.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....10C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1005.9pa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 44kph at 1053
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Late morning showers, slight dust haze settling in overnight.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1476642 - 23/11/2018 08:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Nice pics Seabreeze and Michael. Warwick looks a like Kilcoy this morning. Currently 17 degrees, windy, with a dew point of -3. Yes, feels like September! Wish we can bottle this weather up and release it sometime mid summer.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1476654 - 23/11/2018 13:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Down it Sydney at present it's horrible , hot dry Gale force westerlies and lots more to come strong Lows one after the other useless for rain and storms ,Very strange weather indeed

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#1476658 - 23/11/2018 14:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Down it Sydney at present it's horrible , hot dry Gale force westerlies and lots more to come strong Lows one after the other useless for rain and storms ,Very strange weather indeed


If you follow Anthony Cornelius on Facebook, he mentioned a "dry storm potential " for Sunday

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#1476664 - 23/11/2018 15:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Down it Sydney at present it's horrible , hot dry Gale force westerlies and lots more to come strong Lows one after the other useless for rain and storms ,Very strange weather indeed


If you follow Anthony Cornelius on Facebook, he mentioned a "dry storm potential " for Sunday


I really enjoy AC's commentary on FB, great stuff.

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#1476695 - 23/11/2018 21:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms / Rain Areas followed by Dust Haze - 21st-23rd November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Cheers. Thanks for the Kilcoy dust pic Michael.

The dust did persist here throughout today. It was slightly less thick than yesterday evening during this morning. During the afternoon though it did thin out a fair amount with quite a noticeable improvement in visibility. A pic of the dust haze this morning near Clybucca, looking back towards South West Rocks.


Pics of the dust posted by SteveO & Gleno in the day-to-day thread today:
Originally Posted By: Steve O
From my phone but was an interesting sunrise this morning.
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Well hopefully this photo cools everyone down, from tonight's full moon. Interesting read from JWC

Dancing in the moonlight by Glen Anderson, on Flickr
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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