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#1476699 - 23/11/2018 22:09 Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
After a VERY short break Victoria will be impacted by another upperlow from Tuesday, moving fairly quickly accross the state and clearing mostly by late Wednesday, with the possibility of more widespread rain. Here is a look at GFS from the latest run. Won't be as cold as this week with Temps in the mid-high teens in the south and 20's in the North.



Edited by logansi (23/11/2018 22:10)
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#1476772 - 24/11/2018 20:16 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC and GFS have pulled the heavy rain northward on todays 00z run.
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#1476792 - 25/11/2018 07:53 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
ACCESS G this morn. concurs, the high way down south of Tassie may be one of the factors with the low that bears so much promise, but at this stage could be exiting mainland Aus up Sydney way.

Large cut of low like situation with this event over central eastern Aus.

NSW could do very nicely out of this, maybe coastal flooding, and any rain at all in Vic will be good follow up to recent falls.


Edited by samboz (25/11/2018 07:56)

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#1476793 - 25/11/2018 08:06 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
GFS this morning seems to say it all now that I look
at it.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018112412:0:192:vic:nul#rc

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#1476796 - 25/11/2018 08:46 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah might be interesting for those in the far north west but most now look lucky to get a shower.
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#1476807 - 25/11/2018 11:31 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hmmm EC seems to have gone further north. Interesting that Ukmet is a bit further south so giving a reasonable follow up from ranges north and out east later. CMC also further south.

All models have pretty solid rain atm in NW VIC and adjacent parts of SA.

Tonights run will be interesting, hard to imagine a low crossing NSW coast wouldn't be pulled south a bit once crossing and give at least the far east a bit of a drink.
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#1476816 - 25/11/2018 13:08 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Logansi.

Regarding low pressure centre more north this time, for Gippsland this is actually a positive. My own Nth Gippsland records show that flooding easterly rain events typically involve a baro reading nearer to 1016 hPa.

....a bit like Wednesdays setup:



.....but unfortunately this system looks to be steadily moving towards the Tasman - so at this stage useful, but non-flooding rains for Nth Central and East Gippsland. I reckon the Latrobe might run a banker at Rosedale by the end of next week - plenty of wet around the Warragul/Nojee/Mt Baw Baw region from this (still lingering) past event.

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#1476911 - 26/11/2018 08:31 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Wow P, big call and I will doff the hat to you on this one!

The big low way down south is the impediment ?

ps - hope you are right btw.

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#1476917 - 26/11/2018 08:43 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 769
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Looks like there is pretty much model agreement this is going to be more of a significant event for NSW now. Look at that Access-G 100m+ Bulls eye over Sydney!

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#1476923 - 26/11/2018 09:33 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yep, other than storms in the North West really not looking like much for us down here in Southern Victoria. Instead looks like a mostly dry mild week hopefully with some sunshine which would be nice.
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#1476964 - 26/11/2018 14:00 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
ACCESS R, Sale area lucky to see 5mm Wed on my amateur interpretation - YMMV. grin

Total in gauge, Sale town - 35mm - (last week and over weekend) -very nice.



Edited by samboz (26/11/2018 14:02)

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#1477124 - 27/11/2018 08:47 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models have pulled activity south somewhat on this mornings run..still looks ok for East Gippsland too
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#1477178 - 27/11/2018 13:47 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1244
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Just watchin the radar just now and it looks like the the cap broke around 1300

Maybe we can snatch something out thin air today..... I think its starting to warm up now that the morning cloud layer has burnt off. Maybe I will head on out to Yarra Glen with the camera tonight
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#1477216 - 27/11/2018 15:49 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thunder reported from home. No rain yet. Hazy sun here in the city.
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#1477239 - 27/11/2018 17:06 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
In between two storms in South and North but very slow moving, humidity is very good does drop some rain from small clouds.

The West is likely to bring some when wind shifted



Edited by chasers addict (27/11/2018 17:08)

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#1477307 - 27/11/2018 19:43 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Raining up-here nice


Edited by chasers addict (27/11/2018 19:43)

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#1477318 - 27/11/2018 20:12 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
drewgon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 40
Loc: Nagambie
3mm up here in Nagambie so far, hopefully a little bit more of the next couple hours.

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#1477329 - 27/11/2018 20:40 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6388
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Man this is frustrating
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1477338 - 27/11/2018 21:14 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
drewgon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 40
Loc: Nagambie
up to 8mm now, We are getting very lucky with how slow moving this is. Interesting on the radar, moving sort of west but then more pushing south


Edited by drewgon (27/11/2018 21:14)

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#1477341 - 27/11/2018 21:36 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
5.5mm so far

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#1477376 - 27/11/2018 22:45 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 294
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Really bizzare conditions out there!
Just had a brief heavy shower drift in from the East off the bay here in Tarneit.
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#1477427 - 28/11/2018 06:58 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Sydney's copping it, 64mm !

See Combienbar (E/Gipp) with 17mm.

Lots of blue sky and sun here this AM, bit of a light
breeze from S/E.

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#1477440 - 28/11/2018 07:24 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
And much, much higher MM figures on WZ - big rain event!

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Obs hill should get 100-120mm by 9am. The rain rates right up there with May 2003 (though not as heavy as back then) for the beaches.


Would have caused major flooding in this area had we got it.


Edited by samboz (28/11/2018 07:25)

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#1477587 - 28/11/2018 14:09 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
drewgon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 40
Loc: Nagambie
Nothing to Sydney, but ended up with 19mm for the 24 hours. Amazing from a 0mm Forecast grin

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#1477700 - 28/11/2018 18:17 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice sunny Today, Sydney dumping rain, Brisbane missed no rain thunderstorm over the sea wasted...Cairns heatwave.

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#1477766 - 29/11/2018 08:21 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Put up with that drewgon smile

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#1477811 - 29/11/2018 13:51 Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good rain reported at Merimbula as well.

About to spread super on a newly sown fairway at Royal Maffra, course looks great after the 71mm recently. Shame we missed a sprinkle from this chance.

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