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#1477755 - 29/11/2018 06:35 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Looks like Stormy and Gringos might have picked up more rain than here! The total around them look fairly decent. 25mm at Newy, 34 at Cessnock and 61 at Lake Macquarie.
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#1477762 - 29/11/2018 07:57 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 683
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Looking at the total rainfall for this event, one might think that Sydney Water can steer storms to suit themselves. The Warragamba catchment looks to have had an almost perfect amount of rainfall over its 16,000sq kilometre catchment. It will be interesting to see how much the dam level rises in the next few days.

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#1477764 - 29/11/2018 08:15 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1752
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
In the end, apart from a few areas with very heavy falls, this event seems to have shared things around a bit. I would describe it as a nice freshen up and another event like it within 7 days would be glorious, but back to back events seem hard to get.
We ended up with 57mm, which brought my main dam back to within a few inches of the old record low surpassed in January this year.

Great to see some nice drinks about the place. Did anyone with very sick/empty dams fill them up under some very heavy rain and big totals?

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#1477771 - 29/11/2018 09:19 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5389
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Nice stuff GringosRain.

About 30mm for the event here although there might be a couple more mm to come yet. We still have strong winds and overcast skies here.
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2018 - 1145.9mm
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#1477774 - 29/11/2018 09:45 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: GringosRain]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

We ended up with 57mm, which brought my main dam back to within a few inches of the old record low surpassed in January this year.

Great to see some nice drinks about the place. Did anyone with very sick/empty dams fill them up under some very heavy rain and big totals?


Wow that really is awesome mate, I'm so happy for you (and Stormy). It's been a long time coming for you guys.

People I know in the Highlands got their dams half full with 71mm. They were almost empty prior to that.
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#1477780 - 29/11/2018 11:20 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 683
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Preaching to the converted here I know, but here is a comparison of yesterdays 'Storm in a Century' to the floods and rain we had in Aug' 1986.

All figures are for the 24hr period from 9am to 9am, the first figures are for yesterday, the figures in brackets are for 6th Aug' 1986.

Sydney (OH) 136mm (328mm)
Richmond 63mm (210mm)
Parramatta 56mm (293mm)
Prospect 50mm (321mm)
Liverpool 104mm*(200mm)
*actually Holsworthy, I couldn't find anything for Liverpool for yesterday, the 200 is factual for Liverpool in 1986.

The Georges river had severe flooding in 1986, yet it was deemed to be only a 1 in 20 flood event, the weir at Liverpool peaked around 6m. In 1873 there was a flood event where the peak at Liverpool weir was 10.5m! If that was repeated huge areas of Sydney would be completely under water, and would dwarf yesterdays event.

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#1477782 - 29/11/2018 11:28 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3229
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That was August, this is the end of November. It was a significant system and for November probably was 'storm of the century'. However, clearly not the worst.

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#1477785 - 29/11/2018 11:57 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8780
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Depends in which regard it's 'storm of the century'. If severe storm related damage, then the outbreak of Nov 2001 which killed 3, injured 50 and caused hundreds of millions in damage would be worse than this with the severity being more widespread and over a longer period. Similar with early Feb 2005 (if we're talking outside the winter period), killed 3 and caused $216m in damage across Syd, Hunter and central west - the same system brought record flooding to Melb (once again more widespread). If ECL, then we've had plenty worse in the past decade.

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#1477789 - 29/11/2018 12:13 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4864
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This is the most memorable even at my location for about three and a half years, so not quite a century. Sydney OH last had 100 mm in a 24 hour period (9 to 9) in April 2015. It's been above 80 a couple of times since then.

As for November events, why is it that Sydney's November average rainfall is higher than October and December? (you might ask, or maybe not). The reason is the November 1984 event. Rainfall totals for November 6 to 9 were 98, 44, 45 and 235 mm - 422 mm (nearly 17 inches) in four days. There were a couple of spectacular sound and light shows, extensive flooding, the Lane Cove Weir collapsed. The flood level is marked on the boat shed, about 40 cm below the roof.

512 for the month, which would increase a 30 average from about 75 to 90 mm and increase a 150 year average by about 3 mm.

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#1477791 - 29/11/2018 12:25 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 683
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
I got it wrong, the actual quote was 'once in a century', not much mention in the media about it being for a November storm only quote (and even then I doubt it was the worst November storm event in 100 years).

I think that it really doesn't matter what month it occurred in, but if the BoM and the main stream media call it a 'once in a century' storm, then people are going to think that it was really a once in a century storm, which it was far from being.

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#1477794 - 29/11/2018 12:30 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 712
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
The BoM spokesperson that called it a once in a century event in regards to how much rain fell in a short period of time. I'm guessing they are referring to the morning storm at the CBD which dropped 100mm or so in 2 hours. Wonder if we have stats on how often something like this occurs in the sydney CBD. My area got 150mm in 2 hours a few years ago from an overnight cell. So its not really that uncommon.

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#1477796 - 29/11/2018 12:47 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3929
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
It was the 1-hour rainfall that reached the 1% annual exceedance probability (the rainfall that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year, colloquially known as the 1-in-100-year event). That's also calculated for a specific point - obviously such totals would occur somewhere in metro Sydney much more often than that, as such intense falls are normally very localised. (I looked at Melbourne a while back and found that a 1% AEP daily rainfall, which in Melbourne is around 120mm, happens somewhere in metropolitan Melbourne a couple of times a decade on average).


Edited by Blair Trewin (29/11/2018 12:49)

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#1477806 - 29/11/2018 13:33 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2946
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Blair, do you have access to peak rain rate figures at the OH, Chatswood and Mosman gauges? Also, is it true Sydney holds the title for the highest hourly rain rate(121mm) for a capital city?

Steve, how long have you lived at your current location on the lower NS?

Ended up with 154mm in the Davis for this event, it appears the lower north shore was ground zero. I have a Nylex 1000 setup next to the Davis also which I will be checking tonight to compare against the Davis and report.

The most intense period of rain here was between 6-7am when I recorded 89.6mm, including 25.4mm in the 15mins to 6:45am.

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#1477807 - 29/11/2018 13:36 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8780
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
So technically they should've called it a 'One-in-100 year hourly rainfall rate' instead of 'One-in-100 year storm' then laugh

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#1477820 - 29/11/2018 15:23 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1949
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I ended up with 43 MMS for the event,dry to Sydney,looking around here you would'nt know it rained.
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#1477825 - 29/11/2018 15:41 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 683
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Stormy3,

Get ready for a green drought, the grass will green up, but there won't be much in the way of real plant growth, here's hoping for some good follow up rain for you.

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#1477833 - 29/11/2018 16:28 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 119
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
If you zoom in on the low on BoM's satview page, there are some interesting vortices embedded in it circling around the centre of the low.

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#1477842 - 29/11/2018 17:52 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1949
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Rainbow Spirit.we have a green drought here now,I just drove 3kms out of town to have a look at a few cattle dams and creeks,creeks dry,cattle dams, well they had a bucket full of water in them,but there is plenty of green grass,as far as helping the area with water,it may's well of not rained at all here,but 42 mms is better then nothing.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1477846 - 29/11/2018 18:33 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Stormy3]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6203
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
but 42 mms is better then nothing.


Indeed it is.

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#1477868 - 29/11/2018 22:04 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4864
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's what could be considered a final wrap-up for the event - NSW rainfall totals for the week end 9:00 today. Most of this rain would have fallen in the 48 hours to 9:00 today.



The diagram doesn't show 100+ mm bullseyes on Sydney's North Shore and CBD (too small?) or the Central Coast (too localised?) but I think it gives the big picture.
-

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