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#1477004 - 26/11/2018 17:30 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Steve777]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 431
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Here are totals updated at about 1:30PM for Wednesday 28th:

Newcastle 10 - 35
Gosford 40 - 80
Sydney 50 - 120
Penrith 60 - 120
Bathurst 30 - 50
Wollongong 100 - 150
Bowral 100 - 150
Goulburn 50 - 80

So not just a coastal event.


Singleton - minus 10-30mm's

The wind will dry up more then what hits the ground.

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#1477010 - 26/11/2018 17:47 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 790
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Earlier today Meteye forecast 80 to 120mm for us. After the 5:17pm update it's been cut back to 60 to 90mm. I'd be happy with that.

Nowadays I am resigned to rosy forecasts ending up as little more than a brief passing shower. Perhaps WATL is more realistic with 25- 50mm forecast over the broader area? Can only hope.

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#1477016 - 26/11/2018 18:04 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 701
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Yes, our local forecast at Liverpool has been cut from 80mm to 150mm, to 60mm to 120mm. Still early days, but like a lot of these types of forecasts it fades away the closer we get to the predicted date/s.

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#1477019 - 26/11/2018 18:10 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6288
Loc: Dural
The projected rainfall totals are very dependent upon where the low bombs, and even 36 hrs out, that is almost impossible to tell, considering the volatility of a system like this.
What we do know is that this system is going to provide the best drop for a while. I don't see much of a down grade from here, although I do suspect some areas will get their 50 mm's, some will get their 120 mm's, and then there will be others that get more and less than that.
The anticipation is the best part of system's like these.

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#1477024 - 26/11/2018 18:19 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5005
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
One thing going for the forecast is the way the models were agreeing, at least this morning - GFS, Access, EC and TWC. This afternoon's GFS has shifted the focus more to the Illawarra. We'll see how the other models go later this evening.

---

Today turned out quite nice after the morning cloud dissipated, not too much wind, up to 24 in the city and 28 at Penrith.

Another observation - November has been storm-free apart from some distant flashes and rumbles on the 2nd.


Edited by Steve777 (26/11/2018 18:20)

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#1477025 - 26/11/2018 18:23 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8797
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Interesting also is how far inland the heavy falls are extending (in some model runs it's as far as central NSW). You only get that with the egg-shaped non-ridgy ECL's that get their support from the upper troughs still sitting further west, rather than too far east where only the coastal fringe benefits.

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#1477027 - 26/11/2018 18:29 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Steve777]
Longys Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/03/2012
Posts: 26
Loc: Glenmore Park
Originally Posted By: Steve777
One thing going for the forecast is the way the models were agreeing, at least this morning - GFS, Access, EC and TWC. This afternoon's GFS has shifted the focus more to the Illawarra. We'll see how the other models go later this evening.

---

Today turned out quite nice after the morning cloud dissipated, not too much wind, up to 24 in the city and 28 at Penrith.

Another observation - November has been storm-free apart from some distant flashes and rumbles on the 2nd.


Yeah my concern is will bomb south of Sydney greatly reducing the total amount of rain we get. That's my completely uneducated opinion anyway.

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#1477030 - 26/11/2018 18:37 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 302
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Indeed rather impressive how far inland this particular ECL is forecast to penetrate!

60-80 mm for Shooters Hill, according to Meteyeónot quite as much as Porters Retreat, but still lovely laugh
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#1477034 - 26/11/2018 18:53 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
we need the upper low to sit as far north as possible and lag the surface low, preferably over the northern inland. If that happens, everyone should get a drink from MNC to Illawara and inland... the further south it is, the more likely it is the falls will be localised in the south. Models seem to be going for the latter scenario. A couple hundred K's could make a big difference in rain outcomes for people. Im sure the people of the Upper Hunter would give anything for that upper low to just drift a bit further north...

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#1477041 - 26/11/2018 19:32 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5446
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Im actually intrigued with the storm forecast for the early hours of Wednesday morning for coastal areas from Forster to South Sydney on stormcast predicting storms likely to be severe, its just something you don't see too often at 4am?

Anyway it was another cow of a day here, winds gusting well over 50ks.
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2018 - 1145.9mm
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#1477085 - 26/11/2018 22:16 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7300
I'm getting very keen for this event now, 100-150mm predicted for this area which almost seems unthinkable after being so long since that amount has fallen. Hopefully a lot of wind to go in the mix as well to spice things up. I'm hoping it sits further north and gives the Hunter some decent rain since they need it more than this area. The Southern Highlands also needs it badly and that 100-150mm predicted will do a world of good up there for filling the dams up.

Yeah Eddy I'm curious about that storm possibility as well, will be interesting to see the way it plays out.


Edited by Wave Rider (26/11/2018 22:21)
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#1477088 - 26/11/2018 22:27 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
GFS 06z is looking a bit better again for the Hunter. There is a patch of -9Li with CAPE of 2000 over the lower Hunter on Wednesday @ 10am. Some serious Shear and turning potential also. Its going to get hectic somewhere between the Hunter and Sydney early Wednesday. This one should bring a few lurkers out of their holes....

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#1477095 - 26/11/2018 23:02 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting twist between agencies - WxZone say 20-40 Tues and 40-80 Wed for us while BoM 1-5 Tues & 90-150mm Wed (highest Iíve ever seen them go here in ages). God I hope itís right for a change.

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#1477096 - 26/11/2018 23:04 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
GFS 06z is looking a bit better again for the Hunter. There is a patch of -9Li with CAPE of 2000 over the lower Hunter on Wednesday @ 10am. Some serious Shear and turning potential also. Its going to get hectic somewhere between the Hunter and Sydney early Wednesday. This one should bring a few lurkers out of their holes....


FWIW I think Sydney & Illawarra forecast is squally rain periods with local heavy falls, Hunter is showers & gusty storms tending to rain periods.

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#1477097 - 26/11/2018 23:18 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10177
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Fingers n toes crossed 😁

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#1477108 - 27/11/2018 07:03 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Models still look good!

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#1477111 - 27/11/2018 07:23 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Except GFS but 💁🏻‍♂️interestingly EC & ACCESS extend it for another day now too. ACCESS R very focused Hunter ó> Illawarra, prob the 3 areas that need it most.

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#1477113 - 27/11/2018 07:32 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And Ext GFS going for another cut-off next week! Incredible donít think Iíve ever seen that! More heat for QLD tho!

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#1477115 - 27/11/2018 07:57 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7300
Originally Posted By: Kino
And Ext GFS going for another cut-off next week! Incredible donít think Iíve ever seen that! More heat for QLD tho!


What day is that forecasted for, must be beyond 8 days. All I see in summary for that time frame is the low, southerlies for days and then westerlies til the end of the run. What a weird pattern this is starting to turn into. Should not be getting days of westerly winds in summer and the trade winds should be running up the QLD as usual.


Edited by Wave Rider (27/11/2018 08:00)
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1477120 - 27/11/2018 08:36 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I cant really see another cut-off either on the long range, but even so, I wouldnt be suprised to see it happen. This time next week there is TC sitting just off Cape York too (well showing up on a couple of models), so the dry westerly pattern looks to break down and shift quite a bit over the next week for QLD.
It is a strange pattern and it has the potential to do great or horrible things depending on just where systems are positioned. At least there is some sort of action. Just a week ago it just look like dry westerlies to the horizon for just about everywhere, so even with this event on our doorstep, I will be a bit wary about the quidge for a while.

I will take a stalled convergence area and 175mm from this event though thanks...

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