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#1477137 - 27/11/2018 09:50 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Kino
And Ext GFS going for another cut-off next week! Incredible donít think Iíve ever seen that! More heat for QLD tho!


What day is that forecasted for, must be beyond 8 days. All I see in summary for that time frame is the low, southerlies for days and then westerlies til the end of the run. What a weird pattern this is starting to turn into. Should not be getting days of westerly winds in summer and the trade winds should be running up the QLD as usual.


My bad, for some reason it didn't update even though I had refreshed? This weeks event lol

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#1477156 - 27/11/2018 11:35 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1946
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I just hope the Hunter gets flogged by the heavy rains,but I think we up here will miss out again as usual, Sydney maybe the central coast and south of Sydney will get the brunt,out west should get storms this afternoon and Wednesday morning for them, then that will be it for them, I think,I just hope we get some big falls with the storms.


Edited by Stormy3 (27/11/2018 11:45)
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#1477158 - 27/11/2018 11:38 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1752
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
WE could easily be in the thick of it Stormy. GFS has the event positioned further north over the Hunter. Its just going to come down to real time now as to who gets what. Central coast probably best position to hedge bets between all the models.

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#1477160 - 27/11/2018 11:47 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1946
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I hope so Gringos Rain, we have been missing all the rain events so far, that is why us here are so dry, as you know.
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#1477181 - 27/11/2018 13:49 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Thought I heard some faint thunder and wow looks like a pretty severe storm coming my way!!!
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1477182 - 27/11/2018 13:50 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Thought I heard some faint thunder and wow looks like a pretty severe storm coming my way!!!


Yeah can see the big fat anvil and it seems to be sliding NE!? No STW as yet?

Really looking good for this low based on current jobs! DP's of late teens is perfect fuel, you'd think.


Edited by Kino (27/11/2018 13:52)

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#1477183 - 27/11/2018 13:53 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Thought I heard some faint thunder and wow looks like a pretty severe storm coming my way!!!


Yeah can see the big fat anvil and it seems to be sliding NE!? No STW as yet?

Really looking good for this low based on current jobs! DP's of late teens is perfect fuel, you'd think.


Should definitely be an STW, it's gone black at Robbo now. And the wind is picking up quite a lot from the NE, perhaps it's inflow.
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#1477184 - 27/11/2018 14:01 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 996
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Hope Ozthunders not stuck at work!

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#1477186 - 27/11/2018 14:10 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1091
Loc: Cammeray
It's a lefty

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#1477188 - 27/11/2018 14:17 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 429
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Thought I heard some faint thunder and wow looks like a pretty severe storm coming my way!!!


Where are you now based WR? Southern highlands?

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#1477189 - 27/11/2018 14:18 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Thunder here - GLORIOUS - hope we get something, seeing we've missed nearly every single event of late.

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#1477190 - 27/11/2018 14:19 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Still living in the Gong J Pabo

It's right on top of me atm smile


Edited by Wave Rider (27/11/2018 14:20)
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#1477192 - 27/11/2018 14:23 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Torrential rain grin
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#1477194 - 27/11/2018 14:35 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 708
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Detailed STW has been issues for large hailstones off that cell.

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#1477195 - 27/11/2018 14:39 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hammering down here after a MASSIVE flang. No hail as yet.

HUGE FLANG !!! JIZZTASTIC!!!!


Edited by Kino (27/11/2018 14:40)

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#1477197 - 27/11/2018 14:41 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7212
Didn't get any hail here, just super heavy rain, some nice flangs and virtually no wind through the whole storm.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1477201 - 27/11/2018 14:47 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1946
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Bring it up to the Hunter I would love it.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1477203 - 27/11/2018 14:49 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yeah still as - torrential rain and GUNSHOT FLANGS.

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#1477213 - 27/11/2018 15:32 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 1028
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Latest GFS positioning 100+mm over Sydney and surrounds with a bulls eye of over 150+ mm over parts of Southern/South Western Sydney after last two or so runs backed the falls further north.

It's now been brought closer into line with the earlier run of Access and EC.


Edited by Perfect Storm (27/11/2018 15:37)
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#1477217 - 27/11/2018 15:49 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8780
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
ACCESS is predicting 3-hour totals of 50-100mm for 9 hours over western/SW SYD on top of falls outside that time frame (150-350mm), could be some records here if it comes off. Unless it's either a glitch in the model or I'm reading that wrong.

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