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#1476862 - 25/11/2018 19:14 NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3229
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ok 2 model runs in and it looks fairly certain we will see another deep cutoff low transverse the country, this time with better moisture support for coastal areas. While the Low combo will bring severe heat to QLD, itll bring cold rainy conditions from the South to Mid North coasts, with potentially heavy falls (~100mm) possible in some locations.


Edited by Seabreeze (28/11/2018 23:19)
Edit Reason: end date

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#1476897 - 25/11/2018 22:37 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2946
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
This low is looking like a Kiwi express, should be short and sweet on current predictions.
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#1476912 - 26/11/2018 08:33 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4864
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Both Access and GFS have ramped up rainfall totals for this event, with a 100 mm bullseye near or over Sydney and the Illawarra. I will be expecting an upwards adjustment of expected rainfall in this afternoon's forecast.

Here is the situation ar 2300 Wednesday according to Access:



The ECL moves away by Friday after which it looks like a cool, unsettled start to Summer. GFS (but not Access) shows a brief burst of heat on the weekend. Access has a trough in the NE if the state which spins off another ECL off the North Coast of NSW early next week.

---

Right now, it's a bright sunny morning, with bits of cloud moving up from the South. There's a cloud bank off the coast circulating about the low in the Tasman which might move over us later.


Edited by Steve777 (26/11/2018 08:36)

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#1476922 - 26/11/2018 09:19 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4864
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Further to my previous post, EC and TWC are broadly consistent with Access and GFS for some big rainfall totals on Wednesday, focussing near Sydney.

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#1476929 - 26/11/2018 10:12 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2946
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Yes, there will be big falls somewhere on the NSW coast for sure Steve777.

I'm wondering if it will be one of those intense convergence lines that develop over the Illawarra and slowly track north delivering biblical rainfall rates.
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#1476975 - 26/11/2018 15:08 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3229
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
WOW! they must be expecting some huge totals.

14:50 Nov 26 NSW Flood Watch: Central Coast to Illawarra Coast.

Details:

NSW Flood Watch: Central Coast to Illawarra Coast.

Issued at 2:48 pm EDT on Monday 26 November 2018

Flood Watch Number: 1

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE HAWKESBURY NEPEAN RIVER AND GEORGES RIVER

Minor to Moderate flooding is possible along the Hawkesbury and Nepean River and Georges River from Wednesday.

Sydney Metropolitan areas and coastal catchments between Central Coast and Illawarra Coast may see widespread localised flooding and minor to moderate riverine flooding.

A low pressure system and associated front is expected to move into central New South Wales during Tuesday, and then deepen near to the coast on Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall between Central Coast and Illawarra Coast..

The weather system is expected to bring intense rainfall and has the potential to cause local overland flooding as well as minor to moderate riverine flooding from Wednesday.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Central Coast (local flooding)
Upper Nepean River minor to moderate flooding
Hawkesbury and Lower Nepean Rivers minor to moderate flooding
Upper Coxs River (local and riverine flooding)
Colo River minor to moderate flooding
Macdonald River (local and riverine flooding)
Northern Sydney (local flooding)
Southern Sydney (local flooding)
Parramatta River (local and riverine flooding)
Georges and Woronora Rivers minor to moderate flooding
Illawarra Coast (local and riverine flooding)

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood

Flood Safety Advice:
This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service.

Severe Weather Warnings will be issued or updated if very heavy rain is forecast or observed.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml

FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately

Alert Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Council Resident Options & EWN Support: http://www.ewn.com.au/support/

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#1476978 - 26/11/2018 15:17 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 997
Loc: Glenorie NSW
And bom couldnt wait til 420pm to update forecast. 50-120mm. They just turned on the hapless desal plant today as well aparantly!

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#1476980 - 26/11/2018 15:37 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4864
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here are totals updated at about 1:30PM for Wednesday 28th:

Newcastle 10 - 35
Gosford 40 - 80
Sydney 50 - 120
Penrith 60 - 120
Bathurst 30 - 50
Wollongong 100 - 150
Bowral 100 - 150
Goulburn 50 - 80

So not just a coastal event.

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#1476981 - 26/11/2018 15:37 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3229
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Here are totals updated at about 1:30PM for Wednesday 28th:

Newcastle 10 - 35
Gosford 40 - 80
Sydney 50 - 120
Penrith 60 - 120
Bathurst 30 - 50
Wollongong 100 - 150
Bowral 100 - 150
Goulburn 50 - 80

So not just a coastal event.


Very happy to see Goulburn included as its dead brown there and desperately in need of some good solid falls.

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#1476982 - 26/11/2018 15:45 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2946
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Not sure I've ever seen them issue a SWW so early for an impending event, must be expecting something epic!

Possible we might make up our yearly rainfall deficit in one event?
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#1476983 - 26/11/2018 15:52 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
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Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1092
Loc: Cammeray
just a straight 'heavy rain' forecast in the Illawarra. They must be confident.

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#1476984 - 26/11/2018 15:55 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3229
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Weather Situation: A low pressure system over central parts of Australia is moving east. This system is expected to enter the northwest of New South Wales on Tuesday and then track southeast, rapidly intensifying as it crosses the coast about the Greater Sydney area during Wednesday. Intense rainfall and vigorous winds are expected to impact parts of the Illawarra and Greater Sydney area on Wednesday before the low quickly moves east away from the New South Wales coast.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely for some parts of the Illawarra, Sydney Metropolitan and Blue Mountains during Wednesday. The most intense rainfall is likely to be during Wednesday morning and afternoon.

Rainfall is expected to ease late Wednesday and early Thursday as the low pressure system moves further offshore.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are likely along the coastal Illawarra and Sydney fringe from late Wednesday morning, and extending to the Central Coast and the Hunter coastal fringe during Wednesday evening.

Winds are expected to ease later Thursday as the low moves further away from the coast.

Locations which may be affected include Newcastle, Sydney, Wollongong, Nowra, Bowral and Katoomba.

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#1476985 - 26/11/2018 15:57 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3229
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Not sure I've ever seen them issue a SWW so early for an impending event, must be expecting something epic!

Possible we might make up our yearly rainfall deficit in one event?


Wed need 500mm here but 150mm is a great start. Still 300mm behind last year which wasnt flash.

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#1476986 - 26/11/2018 16:01 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 632
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like I'll be getting smashed with 100-150mm. That is a very lofty 50% chance threshold. How would this compare to the 2016 Ecl.

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#1476987 - 26/11/2018 16:02 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2946
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Ouch, 500mm is quite a deficit. Should still make a considerable dent.
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#1476991 - 26/11/2018 16:28 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 712
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Yeah the earliest SWW I've seen is about half a day before an event. Not 2 days before. Looks like the BoM are very confident with this one.

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#1476993 - 26/11/2018 16:37 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8780
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Wasn't the June 2007 ECL SWW issued about 3-4 days beforehand? I remember the press release being released super early, maybe 4-5 days before the pasha bulker ECL hit.

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#1476994 - 26/11/2018 16:43 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 683
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Let's hope they are right, otherwise it may be another Chicken Little episode.

Have 'they' really test fired the Sydney desal' plant? If it buckets down maybe that is all it takes to get some decent rain around here.

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#1476999 - 26/11/2018 17:00 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 712
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Yeah i would have been 8 years old for that event haha.

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#1477003 - 26/11/2018 17:28 Re: NSW Cut-off Low + ECL, 27/11/2018 to 29/11/2018 [Re: Kino]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 429
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
I wouldn't mind another June 2007 ECL event, it was the only time it filled all our dams within a day. We only need 10 inches in a day, but make it over two days instead, the ground needs to soak some up first.

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