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#1477747 - 28/11/2018 23:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Nice work Gleno.

Yesterday, convection formed late in the afternoon. Managed to squeeze 0.2mm out of this high-based shower.



Today, there were three low-precipitating storms which passed through here this afternoon bringing 7.8mm altogether.

Updrafts building


Storms nearby/approaching



Storms clearing away out to sea


A small tree downed in the wind during the last (third) storm


The drier westerlies moved in around 4:45pm after the last storm cleared out to sea. A fairly clear boundary evident between the dry and moister air.



Today's 512km radar loop makes for nice viewing with the low spinning down south and storms growing ahead of the dryline.
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2018-11-27-19/2018-11-28-07
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1477776 - 29/11/2018 10:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
From what I can gather so far there have been only four houses lost and no serious injuries (a few treated for smoke inhalation) in the bushfires. Did we dodge a bullet or were conditions hyped a bit (Only a bit, some very serious bushfires out there but some media comments suggested the possiblity of totally out of control firestorms)? Very hot and dry, but I think the most dangerous winds were limited to southern Qld and perhaps good rains in October have made the difference. The worst bushfires seem to have been further north where they didn't get as much rain in October, but the wind hasn't been as severe.

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#1477777 - 29/11/2018 10:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
From what I can gather so far there have been only four houses lost and no serious injuries (a few treated for smoke inhalation) in the bushfires. Did we dodge a bullet or were conditions hyped a bit (Only a bit, some very serious bushfires out there but some media comments suggested the possiblity of totally out of control firestorms)? Very hot and dry, but I think the most dangerous winds were limited to southern Qld and perhaps good rains in October have made the difference. The worst bushfires seem to have been further north where they didn't get as much rain in October, but the wind hasn't been as severe.

I guess it depends on which specific area of QLD you're referring to. If it's the central region including the Capricornia, etc, no I don't think it was hyped up that much. It's always hard to gauge the true seriousness of fire weather conditions just by looking at the end result in terms of numbers of houses lost, etc. In many cases, various factors such as how much and how effective firefighting resources were, population exposure vs where the fires actually occurred, how many fires managed to start (either through arsonists or other causes), etc have a big effect on the numbers of houses lost and people injured/killed.
The fact that 8000 people were evacuated from Gracemere was testament to the seriousness of the situation. The firefighting 737 that was called in up there for support was well warranted.
Some of the videos that have been emerging from up that way are quite remarkable too.

In terms of fire weather, yesterday in central QLD was *extremely* nasty. As mentioned in my previous post, I'm not completely certain but I believe it's the first time in QLD that both forecast and observed fire dangers warranted the upgrade of fire weather warnings up to catastrophic level. It was clearly evident in the realtime FDI obs. It's not just winds that are considered in these warnings (although they tend to be one of the biggest drivers of all in spreading fires) but also the amounts, types and nature of the various fuels as well as dryness of the air.

Not as bad down here in SE QLD but fire dangers were still severe and there were still a number of hazardous fires that did break out and were clearly evident on satellite imagery and even radar at one stage.

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#1477788 - 29/11/2018 12:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
I think BOM were correct in calling yesterday a catastrophic fire danger day. The heat and wind was horrific here. 1 spark in the wrong place a pfffffff
I think if you ask those people who have lost their homes or come close to it. They would probably be asking for a high fire risk tban catastrophic
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1477803 - 29/11/2018 13:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 8
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
On our flight this morning there was fires/smoke out in the mountains behind Beaudesert and quite a large fire on North Stradbroke so I guess the conditions are potentially there.

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#1477814 - 29/11/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
I'd agree on catastrophic.

I did see some comparisons in the media to conditions during the Paradise or 2009 Vic bushfires and talk about unstoppable firestorms. Wikipedia states 2009 had a fire index of 160-200, and the max fire index in in Ken's map was 126 (did it get higher at any stage?). Maybe thats close enough for a comparison to be reasonable without being overly surprised when a similar level of disaster doesn't occur (assuming its the same fire index). Or perhaps I misread the media, can't find anything right now like that.

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#1477817 - 29/11/2018 14:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'd agree on catastrophic.

I did see some comparisons in the media to conditions during the Paradise or 2009 Vic bushfires and talk about unstoppable firestorms. Wikipedia states 2009 had a fire index of 160-200, and the max fire index in in Ken's map was 126 (did it get higher at any stage?). Maybe thats close enough for a comparison to be reasonable without being overly surprised when a similar level of disaster doesn't occur (assuming its the same fire index). Or perhaps I misread the media, can't find anything right now like that.


I can't recall all the observed FDI's across the whole region from yesterday's setup off the top of my head but I'd be surprised if any reached the same values as the ones towards the upper end of the range of the 2009 Black Saturday fires in VIC (which were essentially off the charts and phenomenal where even the winds alone were so strong that there were actually a lot of damaging gusts around the place even before the fires got really big... a prolonged dry heatwave leading up to it... and extreme temps).
The pre-existing fires in central parts of QLD yesterday also made the problem far worse since the dangerous fire weather could suddenly make these fires jump containment lines and rapidly spread them again.

So if you're trying to compare QLD with VIC, it should be remembered that although both events featured extreme FDI values, VIC often gets much higher FDI values than QLD during very favourable fire weather setups.

In other words, yesterday's fire weather conditions were exceptional by QLD's standards (and still *very* significant for any state) and those of Black Saturday were exceptional by VIC's as well as Australia's standards.

Also remember that Weatherzone's calculations of observed FDI values assume worst case drought factor so I'm assuming they don't explicitly factor in any recent rainfall/vegetation changes.

P.S. nice photos Seabreeze smile


Edited by Ken Kato (29/11/2018 15:01)

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#1477818 - 29/11/2018 15:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 65
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
I saw a quote from the QFES commissioner saying the FDI for Rockhampton yesterday was 135, and Emerald was 105.

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#1477819 - 29/11/2018 15:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: LDRcycles]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 209
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Not sure but fires in Qld are different than SA Vic. Dont think we get those fireballs racing across the top of trees as much. In Qld I think they travel more on the ground making them spread more slowly.

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#1477827 - 29/11/2018 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
I don't know about fireballs, but I do recall one fairly extreme bushfire through state forest in between Caboolture and Caloundra in the 90s I think. Winter, dry and extreme winds similar or maybe stronger than yesterday. Closed the Bruce Highway for a bit and when I drove through a couple days later there were places where the trees had completely burned through the crown.

But yeah probably doesn't happen as much up here as it does in SA/Vic. How many people here (living in Qld, not on this forum) have the same 'doesn't happen here' attitude as with tropical cyclones (in Southern Qld).

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#1477828 - 29/11/2018 16:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
It may not happen for a year, a decade, or even a century... but one day, a high-end TC may well eventually make a direct or near-direct impact on SE QLD/NE NSW with disastrous consequences.

Although TC's are far less common in our region compared to up north, some ex-TC's and some low-end TC's have occasionally made it to our region in the past so a high-end one could eventually happen one day and a lot of our infrastructure down here (storm surge into some of the GC canal areas comes to mind too) as well as people may not be adequately prepared for it compared to up north.

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#1477830 - 29/11/2018 16:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Agree Ken
NZ gets hit by some strong cyclones
SE qld has just been lucky
I saw what YASI did to townsville with cat 3 rated winds.
With the trees and buildings down here it would be a super mess. Let alone a stronger cyclone
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1477832 - 29/11/2018 16:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
On the subject. Bsch has a cyclone in the coral sea next friday
Perhaps thats the one coming to brisbane
Never know the weather has been crazy
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1477836 - 29/11/2018 17:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Went through Ash Wednesday in Melbourne - Feb 1983. Amazingly although we lived on the eastern side of the Bay, some burning ash made its way across the Bay from the Lorne fires and others closer to Melbourne. I hosed down our roof and next morning a couple of small burnt out areas were noted in our yard. The same embers were believed responsible for starting a couple of the nearby Dandenong Ranges fires.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1477853 - 29/11/2018 18:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC deepening the Coral Sea low into TC status now but maintaining a track across CYP.

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#1477867 - 29/11/2018 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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