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#1477098 - 26/11/2018 23:20 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A low will move across central NSW with an associated trough/front bringing thunderstorm potential to areas of our region from tomorrow evening through into Wednesday afternoon.

If the arrival of the dry westerlies are delayed on Wednesday, this would increase the likelihood of severe storms along the SEQLD/NENSW coast.
It's looking quite borderline though. Models are differing on the timing of the westerlies and so uncertainty still persists.
GFS and ACCESS-R have the dry westerlies moving in a bit earlier and therefore strongly reducing severe storm potential, while EC has the westerlies coming through slightly later with severe storms possible.

There could still be the opportunity for some (most likely) non-severe storms moving through during the morning hours on Wednesday, even if the afternoon severe potential doesn't come to fruition.

(A bit of talk about it in the day-to-day thread, but making a thread just in-case the cookie crumbles in our favour)


Edited by Seabreeze (28/11/2018 18:20)
Edit Reason: removed 'possible'
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1477294 - 27/11/2018 19:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
I think there's some limited potential overnight tonight (if that activity entering the western Downs reaches us) or Wednesday morning/very early afternoon but as per Seabreeze's excellent wording, it's a bit borderline (some patchy showers may move across overnight regardless though).

Wed could be an interesting day too in other ways due to:
- Very strong winds; even locally damaging.
- Increasing fire danger.
- Very hot conditions.
- Chance dust haze reaching SEQ again (but less certain than last week).

Some of the modelling currently suggests the chance of some showers or patchy rain areas moving across overnight tonight or early Wed morning although the chance of thunder remains uncertain.

The higher than normal uncertainty about how much thunderstorm potential there'll be is due to: 1) in this evening's case, capping and 2) in Wed's case, the slightly different timings among the models for when the very dry W to SW winds push the remaining moisture out to sea.
There's also the risk of some morning cloud cover or rainfall due to the uplift of air ahead of the accompanying upper level trough approaching us.

Just to use a couple of the models as examples, at time of writing this, the EC still hangs onto the moisture a little bit longer than GFS so it tries to develop a narrow zone of showers & storms whereas the GFS has the drier winds invading earlier (but it does have a tendency to sometimes be too progressive with systems).
The dry'ish lower atmosphere also reduces buoyancy of rising parcels and makes the mainly huge surface-based CAPE values appearing in models like GFS look a lot higher than the actual instability.
It also means that even if you do get storms, not much rainfall accumulations will result (especially since any will be moving very fast due to strong steering winds aloft).

BUT if any storms do actually manage to form, they could cause damaging winds.

Although some dust from the interior may reach SE QLD/NE NSW again, I'd prefer to see it on the satellite imagery first on this occasion before making that call (due to the frontal boundary not being too sharp, the winds over the interior being less strong and travelling over some areas that have had recent rainfall or where the loosest dust has already been blown away).

In a few of the more exposed locations, the strong winds could cause downed branches or powerlines.

Near the coast, daytime max temps are likely to be around the low 30's while further inland, they'll probably reach the mid 30's... although this does depend on any cloud/rainfall clearing in time

I think I'd rather be on the southern-central NSW coast tomorrow though near the low, flooding rain, damaging winds and even a slight tornado risk.

Some maps via Windy:







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#1477306 - 27/11/2018 19:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
I was just reading the BOM changed the forecast for Adelaide and had the low shifted 750km further NE. Which I'd assume will be inline with GFS having the timing of the front early.


Edited by Steve O (27/11/2018 19:48)

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#1477321 - 27/11/2018 20:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the information Ken, I didn't think capping would be a issue as we have been having westerly winds which normally prevents inversion? (no seabreeze )

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#1477327 - 27/11/2018 20:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Capping actually is an issue tonight but may or may not prevent the mass of storms currently marching across the Downs from making it here. Also, GFS has had a long known tendency to be too progressive (fast) with systems at longer ranges but remains to be seen whether this will be the case tomorrow. Either way, tomorrow is going to be a horrid hot windy day.

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#1477336 - 27/11/2018 21:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Armageddon type weather Wish things would return to normal.Good weather for flies and snakes.

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#1477342 - 27/11/2018 21:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Armageddon type weather Wish things would return to normal.Good weather for flies and snakes.

And bushfires, terrible stuff up in wide bay/CQ frown Not looking forward to tomorrow, 35C+ with probably the strongest sw-lys yet. Give me humid heat any day bugger this dusty, windy desert crap. Hopefully a few mm overnight, should at least settle the dust along my driveway if nothing else!
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1477344 - 27/11/2018 21:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Capping actually is an issue tonight but may or may not prevent the mass of storms currently marching across the Downs from making it here. Also, GFS has had a long known tendency to be too progressive (fast) with systems at longer ranges but remains to be seen whether this will be the case tomorrow. Either way, tomorrow is going to be a horrid hot windy day.


No probs cheers Ken

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#1477345 - 27/11/2018 21:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
I'm curious as I have only been living up here 4 or so years, has places like lamington national park or Tambourine mountain ever had severe bushfires in the past? Sorry if it's a bit off topic

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#1477355 - 27/11/2018 22:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I feel like tomorrow is a huge wasted potential. Could have been a great day if that dryline held back just a few more hours.

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#1477362 - 27/11/2018 22:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 629
Loc: Bardon 4065
I think it would be just too wet Gleno71. All thick rainforest up there. Most of the waterfalls up there still run albeit at a lot lower levels even in the driest times. No doubt some of the open forest areas and state forest areas boarding Tamborine and surrounding Lamington would be subject to bushfires. Even parts of Mt Glorious would be a bit too much rainforest although the lower slopes and cleared valleys would be vulnerable. I think in some cases the residents bushfire plan is to evacuate up to the higher rainforest areas rather than try and drive out down through open forest areas to get out during fires.
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#1477367 - 27/11/2018 22:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 82
What are the chances we will see some rain overnight from the approaching system?

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#1477368 - 27/11/2018 22:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
I think it’s possible as per my previous post:


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I think there's some limited potential overnight tonight (if that activity entering the western Downs reaches us) or Wednesday morning/very early afternoon but as per Seabreeze's excellent wording, it's a bit borderline (some patchy showers may move across overnight regardless though).

Wed could be an interesting day too in other ways due to:
- Very strong winds; even locally damaging.
- Increasing fire danger.
- Very hot conditions.
- Chance dust haze reaching SEQ again (but less certain than last week).

Some of the modelling currently suggests the chance of some showers or patchy rain areas moving across overnight tonight or early Wed morning although the chance of thunder remains uncertain.

The higher than normal uncertainty about how much thunderstorm potential there'll be is due to: 1) in this evening's case, capping and 2) in Wed's case, the slightly different timings among the models for when the very dry W to SW winds push the remaining moisture out to sea.
There's also the risk of some morning cloud cover or rainfall due to the uplift of air ahead of the accompanying upper level trough approaching us.

Just to use a couple of the models as examples, at time of writing this, the EC still hangs onto the moisture a little bit longer than GFS so it tries to develop a narrow zone of showers & storms whereas the GFS has the drier winds invading earlier (but it does have a tendency to sometimes be too progressive with systems).
The dry'ish lower atmosphere also reduces buoyancy of rising parcels and makes the mainly huge surface-based CAPE values appearing in models like GFS look a lot higher than the actual instability.
It also means that even if you do get storms, not much rainfall accumulations will result (especially since any will be moving very fast due to strong steering winds aloft).

BUT if any storms do actually manage to form, they could cause damaging winds.

Although some dust from the interior may reach SE QLD/NE NSW again, I'd prefer to see it on the satellite imagery first on this occasion before making that call (due to the frontal boundary not being too sharp, the winds over the interior being less strong and travelling over some areas that have had recent rainfall or where the loosest dust has already been blown away).

In a few of the more exposed locations, the strong winds could cause downed branches or powerlines.

Near the coast, daytime max temps are likely to be around the low 30's while further inland, they'll probably reach the mid 30's... although this does depend on any cloud/rainfall clearing in time

I think I'd rather be on the southern-central NSW coast tomorrow though near the low, flooding rain, damaging winds and even a slight tornado risk.

Some maps via Windy:







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#1477370 - 27/11/2018 22:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Looks pretty on the radar but it’s all light and noise and not much rain. Some good CC’s though.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1477384 - 27/11/2018 23:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
I feel like tomorrow is a huge wasted potential. Could have been a great day if that dryline held back just a few more hours.


A few more days coming up during the next week with some potential, but lots of problems with them too. Not really our storm season so far, but at least there's lots of action to follow around the nation.

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#1477392 - 27/11/2018 23:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Heavy shower lots of noise in Toowoomba

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#1477428 - 28/11/2018 07:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Had a shower or 2 over Bracken Ridge last night. Approx. at 2140 I had a look outside and there was dust around and the clouds looked dirty as they were lit up by the City lights etc. then we had the showers, and now to the north at 0604 and it looks dirty and hazy.
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#1477441 - 28/11/2018 07:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Wow, check out the massive dust plume over the Warrego on satview: http://satview.bom.gov.au

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#1477442 - 28/11/2018 07:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
I think it would be just too wet Gleno71. All thick rainforest up there. Most of the waterfalls up there still run albeit at a lot lower levels even in the driest times. No doubt some of the open forest areas and state forest areas boarding Tamborine and surrounding Lamington would be subject to bushfires. Even parts of Mt Glorious would be a bit too much rainforest although the lower slopes and cleared valleys would be vulnerable. I think in some cases the residents bushfire plan is to evacuate up to the higher rainforest areas rather than try and drive out down through open forest areas to get out during fires.


From my understanding rainforest trees cannot survive bushfires. For most of SEQ ares that are dominated by Eucalyptus have been burnt in the past - otherwise rainfoest species would outgrow them, and areas with rainforest species have not burnt for as long as those trees have been alive, which for mature rainforest is centuries.

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#1477449 - 28/11/2018 08:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
It would have to be some extraordinary drought in place before rainforests around the south east would burn. Generally the ‘ fuel ‘ is too damp to maintain any fire. I grew up on a farm bordering a national park of rainforest in the northern rivers and if you were in there with a 44 gal drum of petrol you wouldn’t get anything going.

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#1477456 - 28/11/2018 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Just scraped past 900mm for the year locally, still 130mm below for the month if no more rain falls next 2 days...

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..28 NOV 2018 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........86%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........NNE 20kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1003.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud - decreasing, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........1.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......27.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.7C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1006.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 40kph at 1612.
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY...Slight showers either side of midnight.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1477460 - 28/11/2018 08:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
So Access-R now has a decent spread of showers/storms across SEQ and NENSW in the early afternoon, favouring border regions. EC still has about the same.

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#1477481 - 28/11/2018 09:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes was thinking that it certainly feels like a storm day for Brisbane and the coast to me sitting up in Toowoomba. I don't think we will see it this far out but plenty of moisture still lingering around if that westerly can just hold off long enough. The odd cloud popping up now. 7mm last nights storm.

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#1477506 - 28/11/2018 10:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Only suppose to reach 31C today but already feels like that now. Quite a humid, gusty NW breeze. I didn’t see any electrical activity here last night, although we did get a fraction of a mm overnight. Looks like we will set that record for driest November on record. Forecasting 39C for Monday. Time to move to Tassie! Lol.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1477520 - 28/11/2018 11:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
^
Ipswich forecast now at 43C for next Monday. Archerfield at 40C. And this with a 21C dewpoint. So not really dry heat.


Edited by Ahab (28/11/2018 11:51)

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#1477533 - 28/11/2018 12:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Quick moving storms moving SE towards Killarney area. Unstable looking sky here.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1477543 - 28/11/2018 12:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Like NF brought up earlier AccessR might be right with their predictions. Some storm activity building up to the south west moving nor East towards us Yeehaaa

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#1477552 - 28/11/2018 13:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Might have spoke to soon this storm cell might just skirt past here and hit further south.Maybe more to come hopefully.

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#1477557 - 28/11/2018 13:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Thunder heard to NW of Wynnum Nth at 1220.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1477561 - 28/11/2018 13:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Jist curious has the capping been broken and where currently is the westerly wind change ?

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#1477562 - 28/11/2018 13:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Small TS cell passing over Bracken Ridge at 1225. Doppler showing some good wind gusts at the rear flank
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1477563 - 28/11/2018 13:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Jist curious has the capping been broken and where currently is the westerly wind change ?


The dryline is over the Brisbane Valley near Amberley. It's all over for SEQ except for far coastal regions, but the storms could bomb offshore.

Considering there was a chance we might not see anything today it's not a bad effort. A real wasted opportunity though. If only the front had pushed through a few hours later.

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#1477565 - 28/11/2018 13:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Jist curious has the capping been broken and where currently is the westerly wind change ?

The capping was always forecast to erode by around lunchtime today.

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#1477567 - 28/11/2018 13:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1477570 - 28/11/2018 13:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
NSW BOM warning for giant hail near the QLD border.

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#1477571 - 28/11/2018 13:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in Gold Coast, Redland City and parts of Logan, Brisbane City and Moreton Bay Council Areas.

Issued at 12:32 pm Wednesday, 28 November 2018.

Storms developing near Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Weather Situation:

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 12:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Albany Creek, Enoggera and Nerang. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to southeast. They are forecast to affect Coolangatta and Cleveland by 1:05 pm and Point Lookout and Amity Point by 1:35 pm.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1477573 - 28/11/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
They're forming way to close to the coast and movin a breakneck speed to the SE. Very black to my East now, Goodbye
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Just here for the weather

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#1477574 - 28/11/2018 13:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 109
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Just had a fast moving storm through here just north of Beenleigh A couple of pieces of hail with heavy drops and then it quickly went south east. Not enough rain to even go into the rainwater tank

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#1477575 - 28/11/2018 13:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
martyface Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 92
Loc: Bellbowrie
Blowing a gale out here, sadly no storms for me.

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#1477577 - 28/11/2018 13:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: martyface]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Pressure down to 995. Feels so unusual to be that low without a major rain event, just like over the weekend.

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#1477579 - 28/11/2018 13:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That westerly has hit now boy oh boy there's some instability with this gusting winds swirling mid level structures fast moving scud and fair bit of lightning.Cant believe planes are still taking off into it.

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#1477582 - 28/11/2018 13:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Dust is on its way now with predicted gust up to 70 km/h as the afternoon continues. You can see it on the Sat imagery Mega posted.

No reprieve from the heat either, if anything it will warm up again.
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#1477586 - 28/11/2018 14:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 109
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
The hot and dry strong westerly has just hit here now too. Time to turn the air con on and stay inside

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#1477591 - 28/11/2018 14:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Lets hope there is no fire. This heat and winds would produce major firestorm.

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#1477594 - 28/11/2018 14:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
heck of a system and its fairly flying along, an hour ago at northgate it was 34c & belting down , felt like fiji , another hour and it will feel like the sahara.

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#1477596 - 28/11/2018 14:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
38kt wind gust Toowoomba 1pm.
Plenty tree bending going on here atm.

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#1477597 - 28/11/2018 14:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 728
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Consistently gusting 40-45 km/h here. Max I've recorded so far is 64km/h. This is in a backyard surrounded by plenty of trees and the house "blocking" the wind coming from the west. Watching the palms bend and swirl around is similar to when a good thunderstorm comes through. Just without the water, sadly.
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OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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#1477613 - 28/11/2018 14:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Oh great, now we lost power. No aircon, no fan, nothing.

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#1477615 - 28/11/2018 14:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Double Island Point at 1332 recorded 117km/h
Many places have recorded well over the predicted 70km/h already.
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1477621 - 28/11/2018 15:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Double Island Point at 1332 recorded 117km/h
Many places have recorded well over the predicted 70km/h already.

By 70km/hr, are you referring to modelled gust speeds or the wind speeds in the official forecasts?

The 117km/hr gusts at Double Island Point appear to have been caused by the storms that went over it at that same time.

I know that some of the models have been going for pretty hefty wind gust speeds for today with some areas exceeding 90 to 100km/hr (in the damaging range) - see wind gust graphic at http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...nde#Post1477294

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#1477624 - 28/11/2018 15:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..28 NOV 2018 TIME..1406

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......35.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........29%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........WNW 39kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......994.4HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud - decreasing. TS 1225 - no hail. Passage of trough 1358.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........7.6mm
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1477626 - 28/11/2018 15:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Anyone think the dust will make it here before sunset? It's struggling to get a move on to the coast. Would be a spectacular sunset if it came in time.

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#1477627 - 28/11/2018 15:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Double Island Point at 1332 recorded 117km/h
Many places have recorded well over the predicted 70km/h already.

By 70km/hr, are you referring to modelled gust speeds or the wind speeds in the official forecasts?

The 117km/hr gusts at Double Island Point appear to have been caused by the storms that went over it at that same time.

I know that some of the models have been going for pretty hefty wind gust speeds for today with some areas exceeding 90 to 100km/hr (in the damaging range) - see wind gust graphic at http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...nde#Post1477294


I was just going by the forecast Ken.
I am once again on my iPad and it is pretty restrictive when trying to move around the models etc. The laptop is going in for a tune up and my main Computer is almost ironed out. I was hacked, I bypassed their virus, quarantined it, destroyed it but now just resetting everything. Mongrels.

Yeah the 117km/h was the storm which was amazing watching the Doppler. Once it hit the Ocean and Bay it bombed. I wouldn’t be surprised there was a water spout or 2.

As I am tapping this out I reckon we must be hitting 80km/h here. It is howling.
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#1477630 - 28/11/2018 15:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Yeah lots of lightning with it as well.

Close to 30,000 without power now in SE QLD now and numerous reports of powerlines down with some other assorted minor damage.

The satellite/lightning image taken when the storms were sweeping across coastal SE QLD looks pretty speccy too (image via The Early Warning Network).

Some of the dust marching across the southern interior appears to be somewhat visible towards the distant SW on the Toowoomba Airport webcam as well.



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#1477634 - 28/11/2018 15:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 314
Loc: Golden Beach
Sunny coast in a major donut hole! Cruel.

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#1477635 - 28/11/2018 15:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
What a massive system this is.
Across at least 4 states looking at the image Ken posted. NSW the worst affected followed by QLD.

My wife is stuck in town. Tree took out the train lines in both directions.
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#1477644 - 28/11/2018 15:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
43kt gust at Toowoomba from BOM obs.
Not letting up.

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#1477650 - 28/11/2018 15:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
WeatherNut96 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2015
Posts: 69
Loc: Cleveland, Brisbane
looking at the obs for Brisbane Airport. From about 12pm until now.. 10 degrees hotter, that westerly sure is hot.

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#1477653 - 28/11/2018 15:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
labnet Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/01/2006
Posts: 21
Loc: Brisbane Inner North
Check out the aircraft tracks into BNE.
Never seen such big wobbles. Must be like a roller coaster.
https://flightaware.com/live/airport/YBBN

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#1477658 - 28/11/2018 16:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 541
Loc: Brisbane
Impressive. A 89kph gust at Amberley.

A question, is today similar to the classic "dry line" thunderstorms that occurs in the USA?

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#1477666 - 28/11/2018 16:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Dust quite apparent to the west now, range no longer visible. Wind here eased off a tad for last 5 min.
Will make an awesome sunset!

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#1477668 - 28/11/2018 16:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Strange that while all Obs for SE Qld are showing high winds, the doppler radar image is only showing a localised area about 30km from the radar centre.

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#1477669 - 28/11/2018 16:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Strange that while all Obs for SE Qld are showing high winds, the doppler radar image is only showing a localised area about 30km from the radar centre.

The less particles of the right size (e.g. raindrops, etc) there are in the air, the less there is for the radar energy to be reflected back so on sunny days, the doppler wind image often appears pretty sparse compared to days when there's lot of precip or other suitable particles of the right size around.

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#1477676 - 28/11/2018 16:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 101
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
The current wind obs are intersting up this way.

Still very much out of the NNE right along the coastal fringe from Point Lookout to Double Island Point.
But go a little bit inland and it's anything from WSW (on the Southern end of the coast) and WNW (on the Northen end of the coast).

I guess it hasn't pushed right onto the coast just yet, but expected more consistant obs with the strength of this system.
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Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1477678 - 28/11/2018 16:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks for the explanation Ken

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#1477679 - 28/11/2018 16:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
The parks and yards here are littered with small tree branches torn off by the wind. Windiest day we have had here in awhile. No rain reported this afternoon.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1477685 - 28/11/2018 17:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
What a nasty day, winds gusting close to 70km/h and a max temp of 36C. And now the dust is moving in, looks alot thicker than last fridays dust event.
Stuff this, I want what sydney is having!!
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1477687 - 28/11/2018 17:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Can't blame you LightningGus... I'd rather be anywhere than here.

Just saw a nice video of a raging waterfall in Katoomba of all places during today's deluge.

The satellite image via Weatherzone with the currently observed fire dangers pretty much sums it up.

The upgrade earlier this afternoon of the fire weather warning to Catastrophic fire danger for the Capricornia and Central Highlands & Coalfields is as bad as it gets:




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#1477689 - 28/11/2018 17:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
ken , has there ever been a higher value in qld than 126?

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#1477691 - 28/11/2018 17:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..28 NOV 2018 TIME..1650

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......33.7C. MAX 35.8C at 1423.
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........29%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 10C. MAX 25C at 1124.
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... W 23KPH. MAX W 54kph at 1501.
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......996.7HpA. MIN 994.3Hpa at 1408
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud - decreasing. Dust Haze. TS 1225 - no hail. Passage of trough 1358.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........7.6mm
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1477695 - 28/11/2018 18:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Had a nice storm with some strong gusts and a bit of hail at about 1pm. Dunno how we faired at home yet though I'd imagine it was worse over there. Heard of people not having power too but didn't lose it at work. Disgustingly dry and hazy/dusty out there now.

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#1477697 - 28/11/2018 18:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
The worst of the wind has passed us, still gusty though, Toowoomba BOM obs peak gust 43kts 2.30pm with gradual lowering.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (28/11/2018 18:08)

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#1477703 - 28/11/2018 18:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
http://satview.bom.gov.au/ Gonna be a dusty evening particularly over northern parts if that reaches the coast. The westerly still hasn't hit here.

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#1477718 - 28/11/2018 19:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Cells just skimmed us here, managed to get 1.5mm.

What an odd day weather wise, had a low pressure recording of 981hPa, currently sitting at 985hPa.

Currently sitting at 32° at nearly 7pm as well.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1477719 - 28/11/2018 19:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
I can't be certain Big T but I'd be surprised if there was in QLD ever since they started to be measured.

The area of thicker dust was starting to stream down across northern parts of SE QLD as the sun set with another more narrow band moving across areas near the NSW/QLD border.

Max temp today soared up to 37.9C in Brisbane today and 38.2C in Archerfield.
Even at 6:40pm, it's still sitting on 30.7C

But in complete contrast, Glen Innes had plummeted to 13.7C by 6:30pm EDT and Armidale 11.8C by 3pm.

I'm still hoping the graph at the bottom will eventuate:





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#1477737 - 28/11/2018 21:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I heard Redcliffe topped the max temp for se area today’? Could be wrong , but if correct, that’s a rare treat for them.

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#1477740 - 28/11/2018 22:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: BIG T]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: BIG T
I heard Redcliffe topped the max temp for se area today’? Could be wrong , but if correct, that’s a rare treat for them.


Yes I believe they did. The weather is insane at the moment

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#1477741 - 28/11/2018 22:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
A few pics from today, top photo is from the back end of the storm that went offshore on the Gold coast.
2nd picture was tonight's hazy sunset overlooking Mt. Warning

Coastal troubles by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

Calm after the storm by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

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#1477742 - 28/11/2018 22:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Second one is a corker gleno , you are in a purple pAtch of form

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#1477746 - 28/11/2018 23:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
That second pic reminds me of Apocalypse Now.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1477747 - 28/11/2018 23:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Nice work Gleno.

Yesterday, convection formed late in the afternoon. Managed to squeeze 0.2mm out of this high-based shower.



Today, there were three low-precipitating storms which passed through here this afternoon bringing 7.8mm altogether.

Updrafts building


Storms nearby/approaching



Storms clearing away out to sea


A small tree downed in the wind during the last (third) storm


The drier westerlies moved in around 4:45pm after the last storm cleared out to sea. A fairly clear boundary evident between the dry and moister air.



Today's 512km radar loop makes for nice viewing with the low spinning down south and storms growing ahead of the dryline.
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2018-11-27-19/2018-11-28-07
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1477776 - 29/11/2018 10:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
From what I can gather so far there have been only four houses lost and no serious injuries (a few treated for smoke inhalation) in the bushfires. Did we dodge a bullet or were conditions hyped a bit (Only a bit, some very serious bushfires out there but some media comments suggested the possiblity of totally out of control firestorms)? Very hot and dry, but I think the most dangerous winds were limited to southern Qld and perhaps good rains in October have made the difference. The worst bushfires seem to have been further north where they didn't get as much rain in October, but the wind hasn't been as severe.

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#1477777 - 29/11/2018 10:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
From what I can gather so far there have been only four houses lost and no serious injuries (a few treated for smoke inhalation) in the bushfires. Did we dodge a bullet or were conditions hyped a bit (Only a bit, some very serious bushfires out there but some media comments suggested the possiblity of totally out of control firestorms)? Very hot and dry, but I think the most dangerous winds were limited to southern Qld and perhaps good rains in October have made the difference. The worst bushfires seem to have been further north where they didn't get as much rain in October, but the wind hasn't been as severe.

I guess it depends on which specific area of QLD you're referring to. If it's the central region including the Capricornia, etc, no I don't think it was hyped up that much. It's always hard to gauge the true seriousness of fire weather conditions just by looking at the end result in terms of numbers of houses lost, etc. In many cases, various factors such as how much and how effective firefighting resources were, population exposure vs where the fires actually occurred, how many fires managed to start (either through arsonists or other causes), etc have a big effect on the numbers of houses lost and people injured/killed.
The fact that 8000 people were evacuated from Gracemere was testament to the seriousness of the situation. The firefighting 737 that was called in up there for support was well warranted.
Some of the videos that have been emerging from up that way are quite remarkable too.

In terms of fire weather, yesterday in central QLD was *extremely* nasty. As mentioned in my previous post, I'm not completely certain but I believe it's the first time in QLD that both forecast and observed fire dangers warranted the upgrade of fire weather warnings up to catastrophic level. It was clearly evident in the realtime FDI obs. It's not just winds that are considered in these warnings (although they tend to be one of the biggest drivers of all in spreading fires) but also the amounts, types and nature of the various fuels as well as dryness of the air.

Not as bad down here in SE QLD but fire dangers were still severe and there were still a number of hazardous fires that did break out and were clearly evident on satellite imagery and even radar at one stage.

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#1477788 - 29/11/2018 12:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
I think BOM were correct in calling yesterday a catastrophic fire danger day. The heat and wind was horrific here. 1 spark in the wrong place a pfffffff
I think if you ask those people who have lost their homes or come close to it. They would probably be asking for a high fire risk tban catastrophic
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1477803 - 29/11/2018 13:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 8
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
On our flight this morning there was fires/smoke out in the mountains behind Beaudesert and quite a large fire on North Stradbroke so I guess the conditions are potentially there.

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#1477814 - 29/11/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
I'd agree on catastrophic.

I did see some comparisons in the media to conditions during the Paradise or 2009 Vic bushfires and talk about unstoppable firestorms. Wikipedia states 2009 had a fire index of 160-200, and the max fire index in in Ken's map was 126 (did it get higher at any stage?). Maybe thats close enough for a comparison to be reasonable without being overly surprised when a similar level of disaster doesn't occur (assuming its the same fire index). Or perhaps I misread the media, can't find anything right now like that.

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#1477817 - 29/11/2018 14:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'd agree on catastrophic.

I did see some comparisons in the media to conditions during the Paradise or 2009 Vic bushfires and talk about unstoppable firestorms. Wikipedia states 2009 had a fire index of 160-200, and the max fire index in in Ken's map was 126 (did it get higher at any stage?). Maybe thats close enough for a comparison to be reasonable without being overly surprised when a similar level of disaster doesn't occur (assuming its the same fire index). Or perhaps I misread the media, can't find anything right now like that.


I can't recall all the observed FDI's across the whole region from yesterday's setup off the top of my head but I'd be surprised if any reached the same values as the ones towards the upper end of the range of the 2009 Black Saturday fires in VIC (which were essentially off the charts and phenomenal where even the winds alone were so strong that there were actually a lot of damaging gusts around the place even before the fires got really big... a prolonged dry heatwave leading up to it... and extreme temps).
The pre-existing fires in central parts of QLD yesterday also made the problem far worse since the dangerous fire weather could suddenly make these fires jump containment lines and rapidly spread them again.

So if you're trying to compare QLD with VIC, it should be remembered that although both events featured extreme FDI values, VIC often gets much higher FDI values than QLD during very favourable fire weather setups.

In other words, yesterday's fire weather conditions were exceptional by QLD's standards (and still *very* significant for any state) and those of Black Saturday were exceptional by VIC's as well as Australia's standards.

Also remember that Weatherzone's calculations of observed FDI values assume worst case drought factor so I'm assuming they don't explicitly factor in any recent rainfall/vegetation changes.

P.S. nice photos Seabreeze smile


Edited by Ken Kato (29/11/2018 15:01)

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#1477818 - 29/11/2018 15:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 65
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
I saw a quote from the QFES commissioner saying the FDI for Rockhampton yesterday was 135, and Emerald was 105.

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#1477819 - 29/11/2018 15:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: LDRcycles]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 209
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Not sure but fires in Qld are different than SA Vic. Dont think we get those fireballs racing across the top of trees as much. In Qld I think they travel more on the ground making them spread more slowly.

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#1477827 - 29/11/2018 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
I don't know about fireballs, but I do recall one fairly extreme bushfire through state forest in between Caboolture and Caloundra in the 90s I think. Winter, dry and extreme winds similar or maybe stronger than yesterday. Closed the Bruce Highway for a bit and when I drove through a couple days later there were places where the trees had completely burned through the crown.

But yeah probably doesn't happen as much up here as it does in SA/Vic. How many people here (living in Qld, not on this forum) have the same 'doesn't happen here' attitude as with tropical cyclones (in Southern Qld).

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#1477828 - 29/11/2018 16:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
It may not happen for a year, a decade, or even a century... but one day, a high-end TC may well eventually make a direct or near-direct impact on SE QLD/NE NSW with disastrous consequences.

Although TC's are far less common in our region compared to up north, some ex-TC's and some low-end TC's have occasionally made it to our region in the past so a high-end one could eventually happen one day and a lot of our infrastructure down here (storm surge into some of the GC canal areas comes to mind too) as well as people may not be adequately prepared for it compared to up north.

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#1477830 - 29/11/2018 16:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Agree Ken
NZ gets hit by some strong cyclones
SE qld has just been lucky
I saw what YASI did to townsville with cat 3 rated winds.
With the trees and buildings down here it would be a super mess. Let alone a stronger cyclone
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1477832 - 29/11/2018 16:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
On the subject. Bsch has a cyclone in the coral sea next friday
Perhaps thats the one coming to brisbane
Never know the weather has been crazy
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1477836 - 29/11/2018 17:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Went through Ash Wednesday in Melbourne - Feb 1983. Amazingly although we lived on the eastern side of the Bay, some burning ash made its way across the Bay from the Lorne fires and others closer to Melbourne. I hosed down our roof and next morning a couple of small burnt out areas were noted in our yard. The same embers were believed responsible for starting a couple of the nearby Dandenong Ranges fires.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1477853 - 29/11/2018 18:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC deepening the Coral Sea low into TC status now but maintaining a track across CYP.

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#1477867 - 29/11/2018 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, then Hot & Windy - 27th & 28th November 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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