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#1489505 - 07/02/2019 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7686
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And there's the shortwave capture on tonight's EC run. Hahaha.

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#1489535 - 07/02/2019 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 35
https://imgur.com/SSjkkz0

must be missing something here not seeing any s/w on the run

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#1489539 - 07/02/2019 21:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7686
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You're missing the last 4 days of the run. On closer inspection, it hasn't quite been captured but comes close.

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#1489624 - 08/02/2019 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2868
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACC G has our ex Nth East coast low developing into an INVEST by ~ Monday 11th feb. On the Fiji/bom border ~163e. Intensifying into a TC by Tuesday the 12th feb . And just to terrorise us some more , starts to track SW on Thursday the 14th as a significant TC..
Certainly a TC watch on the cards soon.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1489715 - 09/02/2019 08:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5338
Loc: Diamond Valley
There appears to be some consensus building between the major models of the tropical low off the FNQ coast moving east and deepening. EC and GFS have it moving east quite quickly and merging with another low pressure area near the Solomons. However, Access G has it moving slower and intensifying into a TC before it has a chance to merge with the other low area. All models then have a general western movement towards the end of their runs. As usual, Access-G is the outlier with quite an intense system sitting perilously close off the Capricorn Coast at the end of its run. The extended GFS (para) has a similarly intense system near Noumea towards the end of its run. It'll be an interesting few weeks ahead.
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#1489720 - 09/02/2019 09:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2491
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
As usual, Access-G is the outlier with quite an intense system sitting perilously close off the Capricorn Coast at the end of its run.


We know it is not going to happen, but we can only hope it does.

Heavy rain from St Lawrence south, to deep inland is desperately needed. All the way down through NSW.

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#1489738 - 09/02/2019 11:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5338
Loc: Diamond Valley
There is a little window of opportunity at the moment for this system (Invest 96P) to organise itself with CIMMS showing relatively low VWS over it at the moment. This has moved the JTWC to issue the following analysis, where it has divided two distinct camps of possibilities:

Quote:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, NAVGEM AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


I have started a new thread on this system here.


Edited by Inclement Weather (09/02/2019 11:43)
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