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#1477967 - 30/11/2018 22:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ozone doug]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2362
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Glad your safe Bundybear.


Thanks. Safe is good. smile

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#1477983 - 01/12/2018 09:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: bundybear]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
WTPS21 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 154.8E TO 15.0S 150.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.9S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301102Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AND AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011530Z.
//
NNNN

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#1477984 - 01/12/2018 09:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19003
Loc: The Beach.
It's interesting that EC has dropped the drift across the tip of the Cape in it's latest run and instead wants the Low lingering off the FNQ coast for several days which would be brilliant for rainfall.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1477985 - 01/12/2018 09:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
CycloneTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 30
Loc: Mackay
Gfs has a strong cat 2 off mackay off mackay making landfall around Whitsundays December 8th

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#1477988 - 01/12/2018 10:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2187
Loc: Mareeba
Can't wait for the first track map for this one. Do you think BOM will issue one today or tomorrow?
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#1477990 - 01/12/2018 10:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
I reckon today.

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#1478010 - 01/12/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7859
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
So many things would have to go right to push this one onto the coast as a significant system. Most likely scenarios are weak and across CYP or stronger and off to the graveyard as the jetstream is still planted through the guts of QLD. Would need a miracle, slow-moving cut-off low to alter the jetstream and hurl it back into the coast (GFS extended scenario) but that's dreamland stuff really.

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#1478019 - 01/12/2018 15:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 1 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 4 December 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A developing tropical low is currently located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland, near Sudest Island. The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday afternoon or evening while shifting south to southwest. It is expected to enter the Eastern Region later this evening or early Sunday morning and stay well offshore of the Queensland Coast in the northern Coral Sea.

Uncertainty does exist with the systems movement and development from Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: High
Monday: High
Tuesday: High

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#1478021 - 01/12/2018 16:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2187
Loc: Mareeba
A Low or weak Cat 1 would be the best outcome at the moment.
Would not want things to change so a significant system could cross the coast. Have had a few trees on my property come down or drop some huge branches due to heat stress. Could you imagine the result if these stressed trees where smashed with 100+km/hr winds.

00z GFS would be a pretty good outcome for North Queensland going by the Accumulated Precip. As Mega said, dreamland stuff.

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#1478033 - 01/12/2018 18:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
So when was the last time a cyclone formed off the Qld coast before one formed off the WA coast?

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#1478034 - 01/12/2018 18:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Birdie Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/10/2018
Posts: 51
Loc: Newell Beach
I'm also so happy you are safe Bundybear! I was thinking of you and the horses - are they all ok to?

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#1478039 - 01/12/2018 18:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Birdie]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4213
Loc: El Arish
The locals must be getting in early already, seems like all the bottled water has disappeared from the supermarket shelves already in Innisfail..

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Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1478044 - 01/12/2018 19:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Westy80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 143
Loc: Weipa
Trains never got to Cairns yestie, hence the limited stock on shelves

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#1478051 - 01/12/2018 21:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 909
Loc: North Point
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml (can't do a screenshot, so the map in the link will change eventually)

BOM 4 day forecast map develops the cyclone by 10pm tomorrow night, and keeps it in the Coral Sea until Tuesday night, whereupon it weakens to a low approximately east of the North Tropical Coast.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1478058 - 01/12/2018 22:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Birdie]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2362
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: Birdie
I'm also so happy you are safe Bundybear! I was thinking of you and the horses - are they all ok to?


The horses are all good. They have moved into the outskirts of town with my daughter who still rides/trains them. Even increased the numbers by one warmblood mare. As they do.

Poor darlings had what would appear to be a tornado through their paddocks last week in the doozy storm they had.

Thank you for thinking of me. smile

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#1478068 - 02/12/2018 07:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
TC Map out FWIW. Slow moving Cat 1.

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#1478071 - 02/12/2018 07:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2187
Loc: Mareeba
BoM's TC page is working now but the TL is not marked yet. Can see the track on Meteye.

_________________________
YTD 832.4mm
Daily
Yearly Stats

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#1478074 - 02/12/2018 08:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2187
Loc: Mareeba
This fine Sunday morning's runs.

EC




GFS




CMC

_________________________
YTD 832.4mm
Daily
Yearly Stats

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#1478076 - 02/12/2018 08:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13345
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478243 - 03/12/2018 17:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The BOM are keeping eye on another low 4 days outlook BOM.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

From
10pm Wednesday December 2018.

I don't know if that right or not.


Edited by Mathew (03/12/2018 17:09)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm April 7.8mm May 29.1mm>
(06-23-19_ 05:20 pm) Yr 1296mm / Wy rain 0.0mm month 1.8mm/ 0.0mm

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