#1481228 - 16/12/2018 15:39
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6849
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
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The weak low is now 1007 hPa.
It's looks great at the moment.
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm > 01/01/2019 1:46pm (02-15-19_ 07:47 am) Yr 1063mm / Weekly rain 481.5mm - 0.0mm month 883.5mm / 00.0mm
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#1481373 - 17/12/2018 10:06
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
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Just for the archives of this thread I'd like to share what GFS was forecasting a week ago for 4.00 pm today with the remains of TC Owen and what actually likley at 4.00pm today. It cops a bagging sometimes ,and sometimes rightly so but it also offered up a far more realistic rainfall forecast for us locally than EC with EC still putting 500 mm of rain over the Bundaberg region as late as yesterday morning. The first image is the forecast run for today that was run on the 9th and the second is the run from this morning , for today.   Quite remarkable really. Even the placement of the Low in the Southern Tasman and those well out in the Pacific to the east is astonishing given the time frame.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".
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#1481468 - 17/12/2018 22:18
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2491
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
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When was the last time Queensland had a cyclone in the season before Western Australia had one?
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#1481614 - 19/12/2018 17:51
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 907
Loc: North Point
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For those who like browsing Wikipedia, the article on Cyclone Althea is today's featured article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Althea
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"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
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#1481640 - 19/12/2018 19:14
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: Rawhide]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1179
Loc: maadi Tully area
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Interesting reading there Rawhide..!..good to see the lessons learnt and the emphasis on improving building codes...it does make you wonder,though, what will happen if Townsville ever gets a direct hit from a Yasi-type storm..
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#1481695 - 20/12/2018 03:47
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: scott12]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1576
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
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Interesting reading there Rawhide..!..good to see the lessons learnt and the emphasis on improving building codes...it does make you wonder,though, what will happen if Townsville ever gets a direct hit from a Yasi-type storm..
If the houses in Darwin were built to the Cat 5 building code before TC Tracy, I think damage would have been far less. Fibro houses sitting up on high stumps was a recipe for disaster. Houses coming apart with people huddled inside would be something the survivors would never forget.
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#1481702 - 20/12/2018 07:49
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1221
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
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What is the record number of times a cyclone has reformed?
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Jimbour rain: 2019 - 2mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5
2018 - 508.2 2017 - 559 2016 - 563.5 2015 - 702.5 2014 - 418.5
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#1482408 - 23/12/2018 06:43
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 755
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
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FV3 22 Dec 12z run forecast going wild for cyclone between Fraser Island and New Caledonia around 7 Jan. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=384&r=au&dpdt=Much too far out, but interesting nonetheless
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#1482430 - 23/12/2018 10:53
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
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Amazingly the remains of Owen are still spinning away off the FNQ coast.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".
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#1482638 - 25/12/2018 09:41
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
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Washed out over the Cape. A couple of the models are hinting at a CS or Gulf system in their outlooks. EC is more interested in a system west of Darwin
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".
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#1482738 - 26/12/2018 16:33
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
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BoM have the monsoon trough on their chart on Sunday  What happens from there on is anyone's guess with GFS developing a TC in the Coral Sea  while EC wants to develop a Low in the GoC. CMC also wants a Low/ Cyclone in the Coral Sea but has a completely different scenario to GFS.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".
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#1482739 - 26/12/2018 16:42
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4193
Loc: El Arish
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea IDQ10810 Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 26 December 2018 for the period until midnight EST Saturday 29 December 2018. Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: There are no significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days. In the longer term, the tropics are expected to become more active on the weekend, and the risk of a significant tropical low developing in the northern Coral Sea is likely to increase next week.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on: Thursday:Very Low Friday:Very Low Saturday:Very Low http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?
Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.
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#1482802 - 27/12/2018 08:27
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5322
Loc: Diamond Valley
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Well, the latest extended GFS has finally woken up to itself and given us what we expect at this time of year: development in the Coral Sea that quickly moves SE.
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The original donut hole
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#1482813 - 27/12/2018 09:53
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
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..and EC has dumped it's NT secenario and instead crosses a cyclone at Cairns after a recurve off the Cape. The joys of a MT full of possibility. 
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".
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#1482888 - 27/12/2018 20:03
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
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ACCESS G convinced of a TC by the 1st/ 2nd Jan 2019 Forming on the far NTh coast on Saturday 29th dec (147e 13 s) as a tropical low on the monsoon trough Hangs around in the same place for 3 days dumping copious amounts of water up there. What caught my attention is the speed of increasing intensity in 24 hrs from 1st to 2nd Jan .A possible reason is a strong NW infeed, and a strong southern flank infeed . THe TC is very symmetrical. By the time an invest is issued ,in 24 hrs it will be a TC on gogo juice. ( according to ACCESS g) ACCESS badly underdoes the mslp on TC's . Have a look at the prediction 24 hrs after jan 1st. 995-987hpa in 24hrs source http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml  Very similar to EC, 4th jan, posted above,except ACCESS 2 days earlier
Edited by crikey (27/12/2018 20:07)
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#1482889 - 27/12/2018 20:22
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
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Most of the models want at least one Low up there but pretty much all whisk them off to the east or south east.
Given the forecast of endless ridging in the CS I'm not really surprised.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".
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