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#1481228 - 16/12/2018 15:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The weak low is now 1007 hPa.

It's looks great at the moment.
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1481237 - 16/12/2018 16:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 484
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
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#1481373 - 17/12/2018 10:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
Just for the archives of this thread I'd like to share what GFS was forecasting a week ago for 4.00 pm today with the remains of TC Owen and what actually likley at 4.00pm today. It cops a bagging sometimes ,and sometimes rightly so but it also offered up a far more realistic rainfall forecast for us locally than EC with EC still putting 500 mm of rain over the Bundaberg region as late as yesterday morning.

The first image is the forecast run for today that was run on the 9th and the second is the run from this morning , for today.





Quite remarkable really. Even the placement of the Low in the Southern Tasman and those well out in the Pacific to the east is astonishing given the time frame.

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#1481468 - 17/12/2018 22:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2561
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
When was the last time Queensland had a cyclone in the season before Western Australia had one?

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#1481572 - 19/12/2018 09:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2174
Loc: Mareeba
Gotta love CMC's latest run. Owen is one tough SoB if this happens.

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#1481614 - 19/12/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 909
Loc: North Point
For those who like browsing Wikipedia, the article on Cyclone Althea is today's featured article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Althea
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#1481640 - 19/12/2018 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Rawhide]
scott12 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1211
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
For those who like browsing Wikipedia, the article on Cyclone Althea is today's featured article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Althea


Interesting reading there Rawhide..!..good to see the lessons learnt and the emphasis on improving building codes...it does make you wonder,though, what will happen if Townsville ever gets a direct hit from a Yasi-type storm..

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#1481695 - 20/12/2018 03:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: scott12]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1624
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: scott12

Interesting reading there Rawhide..!..good to see the lessons learnt and the emphasis on improving building codes...it does make you wonder,though, what will happen if Townsville ever gets a direct hit from a Yasi-type storm..

If the houses in Darwin were built to the Cat 5 building code before TC Tracy, I think damage would have been far less.

Fibro houses sitting up on high stumps was a recipe for disaster. Houses coming apart with people huddled inside would be something the survivors would never forget.

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#1481697 - 20/12/2018 07:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 484
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
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#1481702 - 20/12/2018 07:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1254
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
What is the record number of times a cyclone has reformed?
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Jimbour rain: 2019 - 145mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1482408 - 23/12/2018 06:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
FV3 22 Dec 12z run forecast going wild for cyclone between Fraser Island and New Caledonia around 7 Jan.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=384&r=au&dpdt=
Much too far out, but interesting nonetheless

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#1482430 - 23/12/2018 10:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
Amazingly the remains of Owen are still spinning away off the FNQ coast.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482440 - 23/12/2018 12:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13341
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup. What a stayer he is! By the by the 28th the circulation will be a month old! shocked
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#1482638 - 25/12/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
Washed out over the Cape. A couple of the models are hinting at a CS or Gulf system in their outlooks. EC is more interested in a system west of Darwin
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482738 - 26/12/2018 16:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
BoM have the monsoon trough on their chart on Sunday





What happens from there on is anyone's guess with GFS developing a TC in the Coral Sea



while EC wants to develop a Low in the GoC.



CMC also wants a Low/ Cyclone in the Coral Sea but has a completely different scenario to GFS.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482739 - 26/12/2018 16:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4208
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 26 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 29 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

In the longer term, the tropics are expected to become more active on the weekend, and the risk of a significant tropical low developing in the northern Coral Sea is likely to increase next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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#1482802 - 27/12/2018 08:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, the latest extended GFS has finally woken up to itself and given us what we expect at this time of year: development in the Coral Sea that quickly moves SE.
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#1482813 - 27/12/2018 09:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
..and EC has dumped it's NT secenario and instead crosses a cyclone at Cairns after a recurve off the Cape.

The joys of a MT full of possibility.


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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482888 - 27/12/2018 20:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G convinced of a TC by the 1st/ 2nd Jan 2019
Forming on the far NTh coast on Saturday 29th dec (147e 13 s) as a tropical low on the monsoon trough
Hangs around in the same place for 3 days dumping copious amounts of water up there.
What caught my attention is the speed of increasing intensity in 24 hrs from 1st to 2nd Jan .A possible reason is a strong NW infeed, and a strong southern flank infeed . THe TC is very symmetrical.
By the time an invest is issued ,in 24 hrs it will be a TC on gogo juice. ( according to ACCESS g)
ACCESS badly underdoes the mslp on TC's . Have a look at the prediction 24 hrs after jan 1st.
995-987hpa in 24hrs
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml



Very similar to EC, 4th jan, posted above,except ACCESS 2 days earlier


Edited by crikey (27/12/2018 20:07)
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#1482889 - 27/12/2018 20:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
Most of the models want at least one Low up there but pretty much all whisk them off to the east or south east.

Given the forecast of endless ridging in the CS I'm not really surprised.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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