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#1482909 - 28/12/2018 09:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3895
Loc: Gordonvale
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 6:32 am EST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 30 December 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is expected to form this weekend and extend from Cape York Peninsula into the northern Coral Sea. A weak low lies in the northwest Coral Sea and there is an increasing likelihood of a significant tropical low developing along the monsoon trough from Sunday onwards. However, the location of where this tropical low will form remains uncertain.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Low
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MTD: 178.2mm
YTD: 1617mm
Wet Season TD: 2419.6mm

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#1482911 - 28/12/2018 10:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4541
Loc: Brisbane
18Z GFS run is very ugly for North QLD.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482913 - 28/12/2018 10:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
New Years Day Cyclone? Would be a great start to the new year.
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785mm Jan
799mm Feb
130 March
2019 Total 1714mm
2018 Total 822mm






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#1482920 - 28/12/2018 11:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
I left the Himawari 8 receiver on all last night and was watching the bubbling across the top end. Looks unreal. A pity I can't leave it on all the time but it chews 100GB storage per day and I'm only using a little i5 laptop.

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#1482922 - 28/12/2018 11:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Not sure if anyone has been following the GFS FV3 as well as the 'old' GFS, but it has had TC landfall on the Qld coast for many runs now. It prefers central QLD and lowest pressure in the low 980s. Very different to the 'old' GFS which has only just now come back round to landfall.


Edited by Nature's Fury (28/12/2018 11:42)

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#1482926 - 28/12/2018 11:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
18Z Thu 27 Dec EC shows 920hpa crossing around Cairns/Tully

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#1482927 - 28/12/2018 12:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18976
Loc: The Beach.
Most of the models are showing significant changes with each run. They are all over the place at the moment.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482928 - 28/12/2018 12:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
lurker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/09/2010
Posts: 86
Loc: Aitkenvale
@LearJet Whats the pixel size of those images?

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#1482929 - 28/12/2018 12:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1874
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Lows path in fv3 runs appear eerily similar to Marciaís track.. 🤔

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#1482930 - 28/12/2018 12:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4541
Loc: Brisbane
Can someone link me a site that runs the FV3 that isn't paywalled. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it for the Australian Region that I can see.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482931 - 28/12/2018 12:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1874
Loc: Rockhampton QLD

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#1482940 - 28/12/2018 14:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting GFS, double TCís for QLD, both looking Cat 3 or more...and the first driving well inland which would be awesome for knocking off a large chunk of the rainfall anomalies across Eastern Aus.

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#1482947 - 28/12/2018 15:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: SMD1125]
Synoptic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 83
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: SMD1125
18Z Thu 27 Dec EC shows 920hpa crossing around Cairns/Tully


What date? Iím overseas at the moment.

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#1482949 - 28/12/2018 15:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4541
Loc: Brisbane
Wonder what's causing the difference between GFS FV3 and the old GFS.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482951 - 28/12/2018 15:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
Wonder what's causing the difference between GFS FV3 and the old GFS.


Better resolution? Better modeling of the monsoonal flow?

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#1482959 - 28/12/2018 15:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4541
Loc: Brisbane
00Z run for old GFS seems to have shifted South and lining up more closely with FV3.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482962 - 28/12/2018 16:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4208
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 31 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Two tropical lows have been analysed along the developing monsoon trough across the northwestern Coral Sea. These systems are expected to consolidate into a significant tropical low offshore of the Peninsula coast over the next 24 hours.

Atmospheric conditions are currently favourable for development, provided the tropical low remains over water, over the weekend and into next week. As a result, the likelihood of the system developing into a tropical cyclone has increased to moderate for Sunday and high from Monday.

There are currently no other significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1482963 - 28/12/2018 16:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23708
Loc: Townsville
Uh oh QLD
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1482965 - 28/12/2018 16:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
00Z run for old GFS seems to have shifted South and lining up more closely with FV3.


Looking very interesting for you guys and eastern Aus if that forecast comes off.

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#1482966 - 28/12/2018 16:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Uh oh QLD


Queue HIGGINS and his minions.

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