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#1482967 - 28/12/2018 16:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4509
Loc: Brisbane
Lining up the Whitsundays again on GFS. Poor buggers can't catch a break.

I think Daydream Island was just about to re-open too.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482969 - 28/12/2018 16:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 337
Loc: Golden Beach
So am I seeing the low just north of Lockhart River on the Weipa 512. Looks to be loose circulation. Cheers

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#1482970 - 28/12/2018 16:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Kino]
Bundy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/03/2009
Posts: 19
Loc: Bundaberg
He is a bit late to the party, but will amp it up now, for sure.

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#1482972 - 28/12/2018 16:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7678
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Locke
Lining up the Whitsundays again on GFS. Poor buggers can't catch a break.

I think Daydream Island was just about to re-open too.


That's 240 hours away..that's Monday of not next week but the week after. It's grain of salt sort of stuff especially when it comes to cyclones.

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#1482977 - 28/12/2018 16:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23704
Loc: Townsville
It's never going to come back if it goes East too far, plus its all going to be down to whether that upper high develops in time or not.

Going to be an interesting week, thats for Sure. Not holding my breath though.
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#1482978 - 28/12/2018 17:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4193
Loc: El Arish
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#1482982 - 28/12/2018 17:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4509
Loc: Brisbane
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482986 - 28/12/2018 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7678
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.


Any model at that range should be questioned especially when there's many different steering influences involved unlike a Yasi-type setup.

That said, the latest EC curves it back into the coast as well but as usual, disclaimer - it's over a week away and many things can happen between now and then which can change that track.

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#1482990 - 28/12/2018 18:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2491
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.



I am surprised facebook has not said it will hit Brisbane as category 9 cyclone.

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#1482991 - 28/12/2018 18:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g has the invest hovering at the tip of the peninsula for days . Sitting over land reducing quick intensification.
The ridging extends well north and keeps the developing beast on hold well north at the tip.
( BTW..what will it be called?)

On Wednesday 2nd Jan .. the likely TC starts moving east
Intensification then cranks.
Is it possible to go from a~ cat 2 to a~ CAT 4/5 in 24hrs?
Conditions must be near perfect for rapid development in the coral
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1482995 - 28/12/2018 19:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Here is a map of ACCESS 1km surface winds showing clearly the NW infeed and the southerly infeed.
This wind map is sunday night 11pm. I reckon the BOM will name the cyclone before Monday. Perhaps sunday.
I believe they need 3 quadrants of the invest above 100km/ hr to name it
Can someone clarify that..
That is why l chose the sunday night map. 3 quadrant 34-48knots
1.852 km /hr = 1knot
34 knots = 64 km/hr
1 quadrant 48 to 64 knots


I doubt the ACCESS wind stream legend is accurate . Just like the mslp is not accurate. But visually showing 4 quadrants ramping up.
But l might check with the cyclone services one day , to see if ACCESSr does indeed forecast correct wind speed near the core.
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#1482997 - 28/12/2018 19:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
8pm tonight 28/12/2018
ACCESS r has the tropical low centred 146e 12s Just with( half on land and half at sea. Right at the east tip of peninsula.
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1482998 - 28/12/2018 19:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.


Any model at that range should be questioned especially when there's many different steering influences involved unlike a Yasi-type setup.

That said, the latest EC curves it back into the coast as well but as usual, disclaimer - it's over a week away and many things can happen between now and then which can change that track.


Yes ,EC has it hitting the Whitsundays. With TC Owen the models (and a certain storm chaser site) were certain it was going to destroy Sth East Qld when it was still a week out with uncanny agreement. Of course, it didn't eventuate.
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#1482999 - 28/12/2018 19:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Social media being alerted of the INVEST
https://twitter.com/SEQincidents
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#1483000 - 28/12/2018 19:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ol mate Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1217
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Ahh and now to wait for the media and that certain southern storm chasing site to come out with the residual outs headlines...
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#1483012 - 28/12/2018 23:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 907
Loc: North Point
Originally Posted By: crikey
Is it possible to go from a~ cat 2 to a~ CAT 4/5 in 24hrs?


Sure - didn't Marcia do exactly that?

Edit: From the BOM report on Marcia:

"Thursday February 19th, saw tropical cyclone Marcia continue on a south-westerly track and undergo a period of extremely rapid intensification, increasing by two categories to a category 4 severe tropical cyclone in approximately 12 hours. This increase in intensity is well above the average rate of intensification for tropical cyclones anywhere in the world."

The next name on the cyclone list is Penny.


Edited by Rawhide (28/12/2018 23:05)
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#1483018 - 29/12/2018 02:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 754
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
While many models have been jumping around a bit, the GFS FV3 has been consistent on coral sea for many days now. I think I posted back around 23 December that FV3 was trying for something.

Overall though 10 days lead time is a long way ahead and anything about likely landfall location is quite speculative given the current quidge. Enjoy the watch, wait, or nothing whichever way it goes.

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#1483021 - 29/12/2018 07:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Another small shift in position of INVEST by ACCESS this morning. Only a few hundred km east and the low is centred on the east coast of the cape . As soon as she hits sea. Boom! Takes off like a gas can thrown into a fire.
The good news is as many have suggested the ridging is persisting and ACCESS showing she will escape the trough and ride east along the top of the ridging
Monday and Tuesday looking the worst for the far tip of the Peninsula as the intensifying TC remains for a few days.
The Tasman high ridging continues into the week keeping the TC from transitioning south.
What l find amazing is that the trough over Australia is still blocked by that tasman high some 6 days from now.
Actually l find that hard to believe that that will happen.

Once the ridge is gone, the possibility of a re-curve toward the coast and into the broad trough currently on Australia becomes a possibility
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

----
Here is a news article on TC for the new year, from the BOM published on MSN news
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fYrC&OCID=HPDHP
-----------
Thankyou 'rawhide ' for that info' on MARCIA cool



Edited by crikey (29/12/2018 07:44)
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#1483031 - 29/12/2018 09:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
raincheck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 206
Loc: Mount Sheridan (Cairns), Qld
Looking at the updated Marine Wind Warning Summary from BOM, a gale warning has been issued for the Peninsula coast for tomorrow.
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#1483049 - 29/12/2018 14:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Locke
Can someone link me a site that runs the FV3 that isn't paywalled. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it for the Australian Region that I can see.


I spoke to Levi and he said "when the FV3-GFS replaces the operational GFS in a couple months, the full suite of products will become available for all regions" .

It looks like there is a Low centred somewhere near Lockhart River at the moment. EC's latest track is interesting. No dancing around out in the Coral Sea like the others are proposing.
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