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#1483053 - 29/12/2018 14:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: crikey
Another small shift in position of INVEST by ACCESS this morning. Only a few hundred km east and the low is centred on the east coast of the cape . As soon as she hits sea. Boom! Takes off like a gas can thrown into a fire.
The good news is as many have suggested the ridging is persisting and ACCESS showing she will escape the trough and ride east along the top of the ridging
Monday and Tuesday looking the worst for the far tip of the Peninsula as the intensifying TC remains for a few days.
The Tasman high ridging continues into the week keeping the TC from transitioning south.
What l find amazing is that the trough over Australia is still blocked by that tasman high some 6 days from now.
Actually l find that hard to believe that that will happen.

Once the ridge is gone, the possibility of a re-curve toward the coast and into the broad trough currently on Australia becomes a possibility
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

----
Here is a news article on TC for the new year, from the BOM published on MSN news
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fYrC&OCID=HPDHP
-----------
Thankyou 'rawhide ' for that info' on MARCIA cool



Wonder which side of the Cape it will go, might be doing the same sort of thing TC Owen did? EC kind of looks like it has a secondary circulation which look to be linked due monsoonal flow with multiple areas trying to spin up.


Edited by Steve O (29/12/2018 14:58)

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#1483054 - 29/12/2018 15:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Steve O]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4184
Loc: El Arish
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 146.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY
184 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281700Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A
281206Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZING LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
GENERALLY STATIONARY OR A SLIGHT LOOPING MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM
OVER THE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA, AS A SECOND CIRCULATION
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10S
164E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281820Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED, WITH FORMATIVE UPPER LEVEL
BANDING. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 TO 60 HOURS AND
TRACKING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt
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#1483058 - 29/12/2018 15:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
raincheck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 202
Loc: Mount Sheridan (Cairns), Qld
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 29 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 1 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough currently extends across far north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further over the coming days, while continuing to extend across this area.
At 2pm AEST Saturday, a number of tropical lows were analysed along the monsoon trough including one off the Peninsula coast, another south of Sudest Island (PNG) and further one near the Solomon Islands. There is a high chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the northern Coral Sea over the next few days.
At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though this will be continually reviewed during the course of the weekend. A Severe Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High
Tuesday:High
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#1483065 - 29/12/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:55 pm Saturday, 29 December 2018.
Heavy rain and damaging winds across far north Queensland.
---
Weather Situation: At 4pm AEST, a slow-moving tropical low was located about 90km east-southeast of Lockhart River. The system is currently embedded within the strengthening monsoon trough, which extends from the Arafura Sea and into the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.
The embedded tropical low is expected to continue intensifying tonight and into Sunday while moving slowly west over Cape York Peninsula. Uncertainty does exist whether the system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria or remain over Cape York Peninsula on Sunday and into Monday. Regardless of its movement, the tropical low and monsoon trough are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, and localised damaging wind gusts.


Six hourly totals between 120mm to 180mm are likely over coastal and adjacent inland areas north of about Cooktown for the remainder of today and extending west across the Peninsula during Sunday. Isolated heavier falls are possible, particularly with embedded thunderstorms.


Damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 90km/h are possible from Sunday afternoon.


Locations which may be affected include
-----------
source and map with warning area highlighted
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ21037.shtml
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#1483068 - 29/12/2018 18:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 973
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 160.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY
140 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290524Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ DEPICTS RAGGED AND
FLARING CONVECTION WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 15-25
KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 24-48 HOURS WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 144.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, APPROXIMATELY
142 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290335Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE (29-30
DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY UNFAVORABLE (GREATER
THAN 30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES POOR, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS EAST FROM THE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290524Z SSMIS F-
16 91GHZ DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE (29-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE
(BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH A EASTWARD TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTEGRATION INTO INVEST
94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt


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#1483070 - 29/12/2018 18:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has the peninsula INVEST growing bigger and bigger in the coral sea as she migrates as a TC , east into the coral sea and sits there on top of the Tasman building plenty of
Excellent surface windstream input, excellent symmetry throughout.
Here is a snap of how ACCESS g sees would could be BIG mamma Penny.
on 4th jan 2019
If this comes off she will look very majestic on sat pic' throughout.

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1483071 - 29/12/2018 18:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5268
Loc: Diamond Valley
Gosh the major models are having a hard time pinning these systems down. This monsoon trough has already spawned three lows and the models have them going left right and centre. It's going to be an interesting week ahead.
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#1483074 - 29/12/2018 19:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
l read in a post above from metoc-navy that they had called another invest 97p
'12.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND'

so l went to ACCESS to check it out.
and wow!
the monsoon trough is in full swing..

ha.. let the models sort this line up out
8pm tonight ACCESS sees 5 lows cool all neatly lined up at ~12s latitude embedded in the monsoon trough.



I would think, the lows with the best windstream infeed will do the best.. feed them and they grow
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1483087 - 29/12/2018 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2063
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Take a look at https://earth.nullschool.net/ for the 1st..2nd..3rd lined up like a freight train out there to the East.

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#1483127 - 30/12/2018 07:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
I couldn't find the tab to select the date on nullsschool.net.. any tips 'marakai'
I did manage to zoomin by clicking on invest 95p and counted 5 lows this morning across the southern hemisphere monsoon trough
I just love that macro wind map.
You can see windsteams pelting down the USA eastern coast ,crossing the equator and entering invest 95p. So cool cool
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-195.00,0.00,599/loc=146.142,-13.626
----
You can see the cape invest rotating on national loop this morning
and you can see rainbands rotating on the 256km Weipa radar with the centre of low near Lockhart river or maybe a tad off shore, .
MSLP 1003 hpa Lockhart river 6.30am
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94186.shtml
certainly looking the part this morning.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml


Edited by crikey (30/12/2018 07:59)
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#1483141 - 30/12/2018 08:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 898
Loc: North Point
Looking at the latest EC. I wonder if a cyclone watch will be declared soon? Category 2 cyclone crossing the west cape on Tuesday before heading east over the cape and out to sea. That's just two days away.
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#1483145 - 30/12/2018 08:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Dates: Little arrows alongside 'Control'


Edited by Delta-T (30/12/2018 08:52)

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#1483148 - 30/12/2018 09:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1964
Loc: Mareeba
EC and GFS seem to be in agreement this morning in regard to invest 95p, hope thats the cape one, movements between now and Jan 2nd/3rd.
After that EC has it going to Townsville and GFS Cairns.
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#1483171 - 30/12/2018 10:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Andergrove QLD
This is the buildup on the cape at 8am this morning. Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B. Some processing by me.


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#1483188 - 30/12/2018 13:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4184
Loc: El Arish


FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 144.7E TO 13.0S 138.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 144.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTENSIFYING
QUICKLY, THEN TRACKING BACK EAST. THE LESS FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TRACKING EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310030Z.//
NNNN

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh9519web.txt
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#1483190 - 30/12/2018 14:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: marakai]
T Pyx Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 34
Loc: Glenlee (North Rockhampton)
Just looking at that nullschool stream plot ... and realising that this is just the output of models rather than anything based on field measurements ...

Just south of Nauru, it plots what appears to be a low (streams are converging towards its centre) but it spins in an anti-clockwise direction while technically is just south of the equator. Is that a quirk of the model or can it actually happen?

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#1483194 - 30/12/2018 14:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: T Pyx]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 973
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 1 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 10am AEST Sunday, a slow-moving tropical low was located near the far north Queensland coast, about 65km south-southeast of Lockhart River. The tropical low is situated along a strengthening monsoon trough, which extends across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.

The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula and it is possible that it may move into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Monday. There are indications that the low may take a track back towards the northwest Coral Sea over the coming days and as a result there remains a moderate chance of it forming into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea. For further information about the Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml.

At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though this will be continually reviewed during today and into Monday. A Severe Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

At 10am AEST Sunday, a couple of other tropical lows were situated along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea including one south of Sudest Island (PNG) and another southwest of the Solomon Islands. There is currently a low chance of these systems forming into a tropical cyclone over the coming days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Low

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#1483234 - 30/12/2018 19:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS r has no current tracking in to the GOC. A small shift west tomorrow perhaps but still keen on an easterly track in to the coral sea Monday/tuesday with deep intensification.
Still amazed that Tasman ridge wants to persist.
ACCESS suggests the invest has some elongation over the next 24hrs as another small eddy exists on its eastern flank.
However as 95p intensifies Tuesday morning as the core returns to the far nth east coast, the eddy is quickly gobbled up.
------
ACCESS t+150 hrs showing some southerly transition to 17s as the ridge contracts south. Off the coast of QLD
Massive cyclone
Rotation periphery
north to south 10s to 20 s.
East to west...147e to 164e
Gonna look great
Would love to calculate that area of the coral sea
How many km in 1 latitude?
110 km in a degree of latitude
85km = one degree of longitude


20*110 = 2200km wide
17*85 = 1445 km length

L * W = wow!!
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#1483235 - 30/12/2018 19:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
Meteoc Navy
see yasi.shaks post above
I can't read the time of issue.
" THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH."

BOM
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018..

"Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

"
-------
That is a significant difference?????

ACCESS r agrees with Meteoc NAVY
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#1483252 - 30/12/2018 20:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4184
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: crikey
Meteoc Navy
see yasi.shaks post above
I can't read the time of issue.
" THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH."

BOM
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018..

"Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

"
-------
That is a significant difference?????

ACCESS r agrees with Meteoc NAVY


The one the BOM is probably referring to is this one.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 168.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 169.5E, APPROXIMATELY
560 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300339Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

The other one i posted earlier would be 95P.
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