#1483280 - 31/12/2018 07:38
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
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I Checked the BOM report this morning YASI and BOM are refering to 95p. I think 94p is out of BOM jurisdiction? Here is the latest confirming expecting a naming on Tuesday link http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.html-------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3 Issued at 4:40 am EST on Monday 31 December 2018Headline: The tropical low has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria west of Weipa and is intensifying. Kowanyama to Saibai Island, extending to adjacent inland areas. Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am AEST [3:30 am ACST]: Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 110 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 100 kilometres west northwest of Aurukun. Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour. The tropical low has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria west of Weipa and is showing signs of further development. It is expected to intensify further as it moves west during today, and there is a high chance it will develop into a tropical cyclone early on Tuesday.
The system is then expected to turn back towards the Cape York Peninsula coast on Tuesday. ---------- It will be interesting to read the meteoc_navy report today to see if they have changed their mind
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#1483291 - 31/12/2018 08:45
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 206
Loc: Mount Sheridan (Cairns), Qld
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I recall that back on the 15th, GFS had a cyclone in the Gulf on NYE. We had a bit of a laugh about it at the time, but here we are...
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Dancing in the rain!
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#1483301 - 31/12/2018 10:02
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13328
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
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Please continue discussion regarding 95p in the relevant thread.
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#1485367 - 14/01/2019 10:38
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2474
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
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In the season, what is coming next?
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#1485396 - 14/01/2019 16:35
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Edmonton, Qld
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Saw something on facebook around the 28 Jan...to those in the know...anything to it? Can't remember who put it up...sorry!
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#1485398 - 14/01/2019 16:55
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25412
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
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gfs toying with a low/tc hanging about the gulf/cape/western coral sea very late in the extended run. monsoonal burst.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld - January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm) February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm) 2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)
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#1485481 - 15/01/2019 11:15
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: Simmo FNQ]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2134
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
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Now CMC and EC go out to the 24th they too have something in the GoC/cape at the end of their run. Looking like we could have an exciting end to the month. Typical, I am in Bali late Jan till mid Feb. You can expect some serious monsoonal rains with incredible convergence lines across the Far North, extending out to Chillagoe with some awesome cyclone potential. I'll be watching from Bali By the time I get back, you can expect dull boring conditions again... hahah
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Bring on the rain!!!
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#1485864 - 18/01/2019 09:22
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: Simmo FNQ]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 114
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
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An Ark lol. I'm in Central Qld west of Rockhampton and have had to put down 2 new bores with solar pumps recently to try get some water into my tanks and dams as its drier here than i've ever seen it. Sure we got a little rain and the grass has grown a bit, but the dams are still just sun baked clay and the creeks are scattered puddles at best. Another lack of wet seasn for us it seems.
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#1485966 - 18/01/2019 22:14
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: drivenunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 689
Loc: Kewarra Beach Qld
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Now CMC and EC go out to the 24th they too have something in the GoC/cape at the end of their run. Looking like we could have an exciting end to the month. Typical, I am in Bali late Jan till mid Feb. You can expect some serious monsoonal rains with incredible convergence lines across the Far North, extending out to Chillagoe with some awesome cyclone potential. I'll be watching from Bali By the time I get back, you can expect dull boring conditions again... hahah Miss you already DU.... thanks for the potential rain you’ll be providing by leaving the country 😀 ☔️
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#1486121 - 20/01/2019 16:00
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: Mr Dolphin]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4193
Loc: El Arish
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea IDQ10810 Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 20 January 2019 for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 23 January 2019. Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: At 2pm AEST, a tropical low was analysed along a trough, about 370km northeast of Lockhart River. The trough is expected to deepen into the monsoon trough from Monday, further developing the tropical low. At this stage, the tropical low is forecast to push southwest towards the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. However, due to the potential of the system tracking southeast across the northwestern Coral Sea, the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region will increase to low from Wednesday. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: Monday:Very low Tuesday:Very low Wednesday:Low http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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#1486242 - 21/01/2019 15:53
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1217
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea Issued at 2:42 pm EST on Monday 21 January 2019 for the period until midnight EST Thursday 24 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm AEST Monday, a weak tropical low was analysed along the developing monsoon trough, about 190km east of Thursday Island. The system is expected to slowly intensify and track either towards the southwest or southeast over the next few days. Conditions are expected to become more favourable from Thursday and as a result, the potential for tropical cyclone development in either the Gulf of Carpentaria or northwestern Coral Sea will increase .
Another weak tropical low was analysed in the Coral Sea, near 11.8S 158.4E. Atmospheric conditions are not favourable for significant development over the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: Tuesday:Very low Wednesday:Very low Thursday:Low
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#1486257 - 21/01/2019 17:41
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5158
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
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The trending of the models seems to be eastward so i wouldn't be surprised if by the time it all happens it won't be anywhere near the coast
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#1486266 - 21/01/2019 19:17
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
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ACCESSG has a very small Low / TS developing just east of the tip of the cape (146e 11s) on Friday the 25th jan . On Saturday 26th, the low could be a small INVEST. On sunday 26th jan ( t+150hrs) tracking E/SE with some intensification and increase in size. The low is connected to the monsoon trough line but on sunday is just an embedded low along an elongated trough in the coral sea at latitude 14s source http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1486651 - 24/01/2019 17:30
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 75
Loc: Jingili Darwin
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Weipa radar showing some good circulation and formation .Interesting to see where this one goes.
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#1487745 - 29/01/2019 20:12
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
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ACCESS G has the GOC /peninsula low intensifying and moving on to the coral sea by Monday 4th feb (t+150hrs) with TC status,is centred just off the far nth qld coast and the southern flank at 20-18s latitude looks to give lots of rain. Southern flank of TC would be on the Townsville vicinity on Monday with strong easterly onshore . source http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Edited by crikey (29/01/2019 20:15)
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#1487939 - 30/01/2019 19:52
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
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Whether this GOC/peninsula low gets TC status or not , the current forecast has a massive surface windstream input. Here is a snap of the TS/TC centred just on the coast at 17s on Tuesday the 5th Feb with the southern flank copping the brunt . Townsville and maybe south of. Looks a bit of a beats on this snap .  source http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1487979 - 30/01/2019 21:42
Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
[Re: crikey]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 994
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 30 January 2019 for the period until midnight EST Saturday 2 February 2019. Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently extends across north Queensland and into the northwestern Coral Sea, with an embedded tropical low over the Gulf Country. the low is not expected to move eastwards into the Coral Sea to become a candidate for tropical cyclone development.
The monsoon trough is expected to remain very active over the coming days with further strengthening of the monsoon flow over the northern Coral Sea expected late in the week and weekend. There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present, however the development of a low over the northern Coral Sea will become more likely over the weekend as the monsoon flow increases.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, severe weather and moderate to major flooding will remain a risk across northern Queensland.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: Thursday: Very low Friday: Very low Saturday: Low
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