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#1488011 - 31/01/2019 00:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1875
Loc: Kingaroy
There is an interesting steering pattern in the Coral Sea at the moment, there is a big upper high over the Tasman Sea and an upper low to the north of the upper high.

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#1488466 - 01/02/2019 20:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2870
Loc: Tweed Heads
A few people on the far nth wet season thread interested in the position of monsoon trough and TC/LOWs during King tide .re : Townsville and dam etc

Here is ACC g's take on the trough for Monday 4th feb
.


Embedded lows across the trough line and strong easterly winds pushing onshore.

Embedded troughs will enhance precipitation and strong easterlies may enhance the king tide.
the southern flank is often the strongest and here on this forecast Townsville is in the firing line at 20s.

The rain signal continues for the far north
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View



Edited by crikey (01/02/2019 20:26)
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#1488530 - 02/02/2019 07:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Cairns
Hmmm... Looking at Windy.com it looks like the models have this low in NW Queensland tracks east into the CS and then spins up?

https://www.windy.com/?-18.073,146.997,7

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#1488602 - 02/02/2019 16:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 31
So Crikey does that mean that there is no relief in sight for the folks in Townsville?

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#1488605 - 02/02/2019 16:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: LonnyDave]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6851
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

I'm been watching some things in the Pacific Ocean may come hear the QLD coral sea over the next few days.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (02-15-19_ 07:47 am) Yr 1063mm / Weekly rain 481.5mm - 0.0mm
month 883.5mm / 00.0mm

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#1488612 - 02/02/2019 17:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6851
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am going with an high chance maybe.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (02-15-19_ 07:47 am) Yr 1063mm / Weekly rain 481.5mm - 0.0mm
month 883.5mm / 00.0mm

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#1488615 - 02/02/2019 17:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2870
Loc: Tweed Heads
crikey to 'Lonnydave'.Access has Townsville on the southern flank of the monsoon trough and the Tropical storm / low for at least the next 6 days. No relief in 6 day forecast
May even go a tad longer
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1488616 - 02/02/2019 17:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2849
Loc: Chillagoe
Townsville getting all the rain it's missed for years, at once.

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#1488644 - 02/02/2019 20:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7688
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The extended modeling still leaves the door open for more speculation regarding this low. It's starting to look increasingly likely it will cross the cape and re-emerge back into the Coral Sea but conditions look rubbish for re-intensification at first. There are signs though of conditions becoming more conducive a few days later once shear settles down but it could all be for nothing if the low moves east too quickly. Longer-term modelling and ensembles are not in good agreement at all with the timing of recurve later next week. The slower, the better (from a weather enthusiast's point of view, not for those already suffering from flooding) or else it's off to the E then SE. Normally, I'm the negative nancy but I still think it's too early to call what happens with this low in the longer-term.

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#1488794 - 03/02/2019 13:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3723
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Seems that AccessG is finally throwing that low into that ESE rubbish bin & nothing for SEQ.

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#1488880 - 03/02/2019 18:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2870
Loc: Tweed Heads
crikey to 'madelf' . the 10 day forecast . a weak ridge lies between SE/QLD and the transitioning low/TS . The outer bands not far from the coast. I reckon we will get something.
What raises my eyebrows is that the TC has no where to transition too. A solid high to its south blocks transition and a ridge ( hill) to its NE hems it in position. The implications are it could stall there? or depends on that incoming trough
On the map below the low is still being fed from the monsonnal flow to its NE .
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/



Edited by crikey (03/02/2019 18:34)
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#1488883 - 03/02/2019 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2870
Loc: Tweed Heads
I wonder if this low will make TC status in the coral sea off the QLD coast? What say the other models?

( disregard the mslp on this synoptic map. They are not geared to gauge TC intensity)

ACCESS G t+168hrs

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#1488886 - 03/02/2019 18:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3723
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Who knows Crikey, it might do a pirouette & come in later on?

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#1489042 - 04/02/2019 06:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 766
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I had thought the new GFS FV3 model would among other improvements reduce the tendency for GFS to produce ridiculously low central min pressures on potential cyclones. Does not seem to be the case with the 12Z FV3 run for T+372hrs which is speculating with a 935hpa for that low north east of New Caledonia

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2019020312&fh=372&r=au&dpdt=&mc=

Anyway it is beyond day 5 in the model run so nothing to take seriously for now.

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#1489078 - 04/02/2019 11:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Chris Stumer]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 35
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
There is an interesting steering pattern in the Coral Sea at the moment, there is a big upper high over the Tasman Sea and an upper low to the north of the upper high.


Problem has been there's NO steering.

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#1489125 - 04/02/2019 19:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7688
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
The extended modeling still leaves the door open for more speculation regarding this low. It's starting to look increasingly likely it will cross the cape and re-emerge back into the Coral Sea but conditions look rubbish for re-intensification at first. There are signs though of conditions becoming more conducive a few days later once shear settles down but it could all be for nothing if the low moves east too quickly. Longer-term modelling and ensembles are not in good agreement at all with the timing of recurve later next week. The slower, the better (from a weather enthusiast's point of view, not for those already suffering from flooding) or else it's off to the E then SE. Normally, I'm the negative nancy but I still think it's too early to call what happens with this low in the longer-term.


All over. Will become yet another victim of the always so hostile atmospheric conditions of the Coral Sea.

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#1489132 - 04/02/2019 20:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Flowin]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1578
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I had thought the new GFS FV3 model would among other improvements reduce the tendency for GFS to produce ridiculously low central min pressures on potential cyclones. Does not seem to be the case with the 12Z FV3 run for T+372hrs which is speculating with a 935hpa for that low north east of New Caledonia

This one is GFS, but I thought it was a bit wild.

[img:left][/img]

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#1489378 - 06/02/2019 14:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Flowin]
Squeako_88 Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 491
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I had thought the new GFS FV3 model would among other improvements reduce the tendency for GFS to produce ridiculously low central min pressures on potential cyclones. Does not seem to be the case with the 12Z FV3 run for T+372hrs which is speculating with a 935hpa for that low north east of New Caledonia

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2019020312&fh=372&r=au&dpdt=&mc=

Anyway it is beyond day 5 in the model run so nothing to take seriously for now.


That Fijian system might be something to watch in the longer term and see how far west it could go. Especially if a ridging pattern persists. *jinx jinx*
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#1489405 - 06/02/2019 17:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1358
Loc: toowoomba
Knowing our luck the ridge will suddenly break down sending the potential TC to the great graveyard and then re establish itself again grin


Edited by petethemoskeet (06/02/2019 17:41)

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#1489426 - 06/02/2019 19:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7688
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Knowing our luck the ridge will suddenly break down sending the potential TC to the great graveyard and then re establish itself again grin


Yep. The end of the model runs look encouraging for anything tropical in the Coral Sea to be steered from east to west under a deep layer ridge (whereas the ridge running through Coral Sea currently only really exists in the lower/mid levels while the upper levels remain heavily troughy which is supportive of SE movement of stronger systems). But as you say, what's the bet a shortwave pops up out of nowhere and disrupts the predicted 'proper' ridge onto the coast? Sigh.

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