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#1477235 - 27/11/2018 16:57 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
I couldn't see where another Qld cyclone thread had been started?

Three of the models have a deep Low or TC within the BoM's AOR in coming days. EC not having a bar of it though ,whilst GFS wants a Cat 5 eventually smile . CMC borderline Cat 1 and Navgem a TC.







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#1477248 - 27/11/2018 17:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for starting this thread CF. I wanted to start one this morning but didn't know how.

Can't wait to see how this unfolds.
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YTD 637.8mm

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#1477253 - 27/11/2018 17:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
very early days but interesting to see something so early, different for the CS. ext gfs is of course way way out, but shows the system down to 919hPa but moving SE. Should that come off, this will only push more dry air over NQ delay any further troughs or rain prospects.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1477477 - 28/11/2018 09:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
GFS, CMC and GEM still going with a low/TC in the coral sea. EC still going with a low skipping over the tip then deepening in the Arafura Sea.

Forecast position for Monday 3rd December.







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#1477530 - 28/11/2018 12:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6695
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Don't cyclones that hang around at sea suck out all the heat out of the sea and end up meaning we have dryer than normal weather after they go ? (or on the other hand if they do go to land and hit ) ?
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#1477688 - 28/11/2018 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Vinnie]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
This must be said disturbance on the boil? SH972019 - INVEST http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH972019
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#1477753 - 29/11/2018 01:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Vinnie]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Don't cyclones that hang around at sea suck out all the heat out of the sea and end up meaning we have dryer than normal weather after they go ? (or on the other hand if they do go to land and hit ) ?

Yes cyclones which stay over the same area of water can suck the heat out the of ocean, and this can weaken the system, pretty rare for a cyclone to remain that stationary. Generally any cyclone that hangs about the central or southern coral sea will direct drier winds onto the coast and/or take any tropical weather away with it.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1477773 - 29/11/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
This mornings 12z run. Forecast to 12z Monday.
EC still skipping it over the tip.
GFS and NAVGEM have it getting closer to the coast
CMC just a smidge closer to the coast

Low/cat 1 crossing to the north of Cairns then travel down inland as a low dumping loads of rain where it is needed would be amazing right now. We can dream.

Reality it will stay out in the CS just extending these hot uncomfortable conditions we are currently receiving, probably ramping up the humidity as an added bonus
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#1477775 - 29/11/2018 10:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 502
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
This mornings 12z run. Forecast to 12z Monday.
EC still skipping it over the tip.
GFS and NAVGEM have it getting closer to the coast
CMC just a smidge closer to the coast

Low/cat 1 crossing to the north of Cairns then travel down inland as a low dumping loads of rain where it is needed would be amazing right now. We can dream.

Reality it will stay out in the CS just extending these hot uncomfortable conditions we are currently receiving, probably ramping up the humidity as an added bonus


That is what the current 18Z GFS run has now!

Looks like the 2 possible scenarios are a weaker system to move west a stronger system to move SE due to the presence of a upper trough trough moving through eastern QLD... then a possible westward motion after weakening substantially.
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#1477824 - 29/11/2018 15:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Squeako_88]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 29 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 2 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is currently located over the Solomon Islands. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to remain outside our region of responsibility before entering the Eastern Region during Sunday or Monday.

Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development into next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1477843 - 29/11/2018 18:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1162
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 376
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 290342Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOW A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL 281010Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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#1477896 - 30/11/2018 09:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
This mornings 12z runs has EC slowing the system down and deepening further in the CS than previous runs but remaining a low and still skipping over the tip eventually. CMC now more inline with EC
GFS and NAVGEM still have it making TC status then sliding SE

Does anyone have a link to the Australian Cyclone scale with pressure range for each category? Can find heaps for the Saffir-Simpson scale.
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#1477901 - 30/11/2018 10:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14283
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
https://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tropical_cyclone_intensity_scale.htm

Tropical low > 996
Cat 1 986 to 995 wind <125kph
Cat 2 971 to 985 Wind 125 to 164kph
Cat 3 956 to 970 wind 165 to 224kph
Cat 4 930 to 955 wind 225 to 279kph
Cat 5 <= 929 > 280kph
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785mm Jan
799mm Feb
70 March
2019 Total 1654mm
2018 Total 822mm






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#1477903 - 30/11/2018 10:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Awesome, Thanks SBT. smile
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#1477904 - 30/11/2018 10:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2498
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
BOM - Moderate for SUNDAY
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#1477917 - 30/11/2018 12:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2347
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Just to be nuisance value today. Running on my mobile net so could someone please be kind to me and give me the links that are handy like the navgem.

Sitting here, bloody hot, waiting to be let back into my poor fire destroyed neighborhood and can't get up the energy to find them. I do have them on my harddrive at home. Sort of over people saying yay a cyclone coming to save us.

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#1477920 - 30/11/2018 13:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2142
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn you can access a lot of the model runs here Bundy hope all go's well for you.

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#1477933 - 30/11/2018 14:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: marakai]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2347
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: marakai
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn you can access a lot of the model runs here Bundy hope all go's well for you.


That helps me lots. Thanks for that. smile

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#1477935 - 30/11/2018 15:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1908
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Glad your safe Bundybear.
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#1477937 - 30/11/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ozone doug]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 30 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 3 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is currently located east-southeast of Papua New Guinea. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to enter the Eastern Region during Sunday and stay well offshore of the Queenlsand Coast in the northern Coral Sea.

Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development from Tuesday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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