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#1477235 - 27/11/2018 16:57 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
I couldn't see where another Qld cyclone thread had been started?

Three of the models have a deep Low or TC within the BoM's AOR in coming days. EC not having a bar of it though ,whilst GFS wants a Cat 5 eventually smile . CMC borderline Cat 1 and Navgem a TC.







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#1477248 - 27/11/2018 17:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for starting this thread CF. I wanted to start one this morning but didn't know how.

Can't wait to see how this unfolds.
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#1477253 - 27/11/2018 17:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
very early days but interesting to see something so early, different for the CS. ext gfs is of course way way out, but shows the system down to 919hPa but moving SE. Should that come off, this will only push more dry air over NQ delay any further troughs or rain prospects.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1477477 - 28/11/2018 09:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
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Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
GFS, CMC and GEM still going with a low/TC in the coral sea. EC still going with a low skipping over the tip then deepening in the Arafura Sea.

Forecast position for Monday 3rd December.







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#1477530 - 28/11/2018 12:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6695
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Don't cyclones that hang around at sea suck out all the heat out of the sea and end up meaning we have dryer than normal weather after they go ? (or on the other hand if they do go to land and hit ) ?
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#1477688 - 28/11/2018 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Vinnie]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
This must be said disturbance on the boil? SH972019 - INVEST http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH972019
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#1477753 - 29/11/2018 01:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Vinnie]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Don't cyclones that hang around at sea suck out all the heat out of the sea and end up meaning we have dryer than normal weather after they go ? (or on the other hand if they do go to land and hit ) ?

Yes cyclones which stay over the same area of water can suck the heat out the of ocean, and this can weaken the system, pretty rare for a cyclone to remain that stationary. Generally any cyclone that hangs about the central or southern coral sea will direct drier winds onto the coast and/or take any tropical weather away with it.
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January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1477773 - 29/11/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
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Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
This mornings 12z run. Forecast to 12z Monday.
EC still skipping it over the tip.
GFS and NAVGEM have it getting closer to the coast
CMC just a smidge closer to the coast

Low/cat 1 crossing to the north of Cairns then travel down inland as a low dumping loads of rain where it is needed would be amazing right now. We can dream.

Reality it will stay out in the CS just extending these hot uncomfortable conditions we are currently receiving, probably ramping up the humidity as an added bonus
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#1477775 - 29/11/2018 10:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 502
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
This mornings 12z run. Forecast to 12z Monday.
EC still skipping it over the tip.
GFS and NAVGEM have it getting closer to the coast
CMC just a smidge closer to the coast

Low/cat 1 crossing to the north of Cairns then travel down inland as a low dumping loads of rain where it is needed would be amazing right now. We can dream.

Reality it will stay out in the CS just extending these hot uncomfortable conditions we are currently receiving, probably ramping up the humidity as an added bonus


That is what the current 18Z GFS run has now!

Looks like the 2 possible scenarios are a weaker system to move west a stronger system to move SE due to the presence of a upper trough trough moving through eastern QLD... then a possible westward motion after weakening substantially.
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#1477824 - 29/11/2018 15:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Squeako_88]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 29 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 2 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is currently located over the Solomon Islands. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to remain outside our region of responsibility before entering the Eastern Region during Sunday or Monday.

Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development into next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1477843 - 29/11/2018 18:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weary Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1162
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 376
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 290342Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOW A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL 281010Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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#1477896 - 30/11/2018 09:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
This mornings 12z runs has EC slowing the system down and deepening further in the CS than previous runs but remaining a low and still skipping over the tip eventually. CMC now more inline with EC
GFS and NAVGEM still have it making TC status then sliding SE

Does anyone have a link to the Australian Cyclone scale with pressure range for each category? Can find heaps for the Saffir-Simpson scale.
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#1477901 - 30/11/2018 10:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14283
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
https://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tropical_cyclone_intensity_scale.htm

Tropical low > 996
Cat 1 986 to 995 wind <125kph
Cat 2 971 to 985 Wind 125 to 164kph
Cat 3 956 to 970 wind 165 to 224kph
Cat 4 930 to 955 wind 225 to 279kph
Cat 5 <= 929 > 280kph
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785mm Jan
799mm Feb
70 March
2019 Total 1654mm
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#1477903 - 30/11/2018 10:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Awesome, Thanks SBT. smile
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#1477904 - 30/11/2018 10:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2498
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
BOM - Moderate for SUNDAY
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#1477917 - 30/11/2018 12:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2347
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Just to be nuisance value today. Running on my mobile net so could someone please be kind to me and give me the links that are handy like the navgem.

Sitting here, bloody hot, waiting to be let back into my poor fire destroyed neighborhood and can't get up the energy to find them. I do have them on my harddrive at home. Sort of over people saying yay a cyclone coming to save us.

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#1477920 - 30/11/2018 13:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2142
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn you can access a lot of the model runs here Bundy hope all go's well for you.

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#1477933 - 30/11/2018 14:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: marakai]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2347
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: marakai
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn you can access a lot of the model runs here Bundy hope all go's well for you.


That helps me lots. Thanks for that. smile

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#1477935 - 30/11/2018 15:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1908
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Glad your safe Bundybear.
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#1477937 - 30/11/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ozone doug]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 30 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 3 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is currently located east-southeast of Papua New Guinea. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to enter the Eastern Region during Sunday and stay well offshore of the Queenlsand Coast in the northern Coral Sea.

Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development from Tuesday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1477967 - 30/11/2018 22:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ozone doug]
bundybear Offline
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Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2347
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Glad your safe Bundybear.


Thanks. Safe is good. smile

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#1477983 - 01/12/2018 09:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: bundybear]
Hailin Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1011
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
WTPS21 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 154.8E TO 15.0S 150.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.9S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301102Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AND AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011530Z.
//
NNNN

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#1477984 - 01/12/2018 09:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
It's interesting that EC has dropped the drift across the tip of the Cape in it's latest run and instead wants the Low lingering off the FNQ coast for several days which would be brilliant for rainfall.
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#1477985 - 01/12/2018 09:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
CycloneTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 30
Loc: Mackay
Gfs has a strong cat 2 off mackay off mackay making landfall around Whitsundays December 8th

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#1477988 - 01/12/2018 10:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Can't wait for the first track map for this one. Do you think BOM will issue one today or tomorrow?
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#1477990 - 01/12/2018 10:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Hailin Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1011
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
I reckon today.

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#1478010 - 01/12/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
So many things would have to go right to push this one onto the coast as a significant system. Most likely scenarios are weak and across CYP or stronger and off to the graveyard as the jetstream is still planted through the guts of QLD. Would need a miracle, slow-moving cut-off low to alter the jetstream and hurl it back into the coast (GFS extended scenario) but that's dreamland stuff really.

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#1478019 - 01/12/2018 15:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Hailin Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1011
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 1 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 4 December 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A developing tropical low is currently located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland, near Sudest Island. The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday afternoon or evening while shifting south to southwest. It is expected to enter the Eastern Region later this evening or early Sunday morning and stay well offshore of the Queensland Coast in the northern Coral Sea.

Uncertainty does exist with the systems movement and development from Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: High
Monday: High
Tuesday: High

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#1478021 - 01/12/2018 16:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
A Low or weak Cat 1 would be the best outcome at the moment.
Would not want things to change so a significant system could cross the coast. Have had a few trees on my property come down or drop some huge branches due to heat stress. Could you imagine the result if these stressed trees where smashed with 100+km/hr winds.

00z GFS would be a pretty good outcome for North Queensland going by the Accumulated Precip. As Mega said, dreamland stuff.

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#1478033 - 01/12/2018 18:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2543
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
So when was the last time a cyclone formed off the Qld coast before one formed off the WA coast?

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#1478034 - 01/12/2018 18:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Birdie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/10/2018
Posts: 46
Loc: Newell Beach
I'm also so happy you are safe Bundybear! I was thinking of you and the horses - are they all ok to?

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#1478039 - 01/12/2018 18:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Birdie]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
The locals must be getting in early already, seems like all the bottled water has disappeared from the supermarket shelves already in Innisfail..

_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1478044 - 01/12/2018 19:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Westy80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 143
Loc: Weipa
Trains never got to Cairns yestie, hence the limited stock on shelves

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#1478051 - 01/12/2018 21:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 908
Loc: North Point
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml (can't do a screenshot, so the map in the link will change eventually)

BOM 4 day forecast map develops the cyclone by 10pm tomorrow night, and keeps it in the Coral Sea until Tuesday night, whereupon it weakens to a low approximately east of the North Tropical Coast.
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#1478058 - 01/12/2018 22:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Birdie]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2347
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: Birdie
I'm also so happy you are safe Bundybear! I was thinking of you and the horses - are they all ok to?


The horses are all good. They have moved into the outskirts of town with my daughter who still rides/trains them. Even increased the numbers by one warmblood mare. As they do.

Poor darlings had what would appear to be a tornado through their paddocks last week in the doozy storm they had.

Thank you for thinking of me. smile

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#1478068 - 02/12/2018 07:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
TC Map out FWIW. Slow moving Cat 1.

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#1478071 - 02/12/2018 07:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
BoM's TC page is working now but the TL is not marked yet. Can see the track on Meteye.

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#1478074 - 02/12/2018 08:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
This fine Sunday morning's runs.

EC




GFS




CMC

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#1478076 - 02/12/2018 08:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13338
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
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#1478243 - 03/12/2018 17:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The BOM are keeping eye on another low 4 days outlook BOM.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

From
10pm Wednesday December 2018.

I don't know if that right or not.


Edited by Mathew (03/12/2018 17:09)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1478263 - 03/12/2018 18:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
The BOM are keeping eye on another low 4 days outlook BOM.


As I stated earlier on another thread.. too many variables right now
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#1478464 - 05/12/2018 00:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
long way out but EC put what I believe may be the dregs of Owen in the GoC by next Wednesday and back to TC status late next week. A long shot but you never know.

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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478480 - 05/12/2018 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 119
Loc: Ayr
Had a look this morning and again just now at earth wind map & water vapour map just to see what little of Owen was doing. It looks better now than it did this morning why is that?

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#1478481 - 05/12/2018 13:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8780
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
That's a hectic set-up with a TC in the GOC linking up to a storm front over the E inland if it comes off.

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#1478486 - 05/12/2018 15:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Thanks post that update mate.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1478514 - 05/12/2018 18:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
EC is modelling some big rain down the coast from Owen's remains, particularly around the Sarina area.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478527 - 05/12/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC still has the GoC TC too...not sure if it's Owen or a new low.

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#1478534 - 05/12/2018 19:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still has the GoC TC too...not sure if it's Owen or a new low.


According to the chart on 7 news it would be from a new Low on the Cape.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478536 - 05/12/2018 19:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
So many things would have to go right to push this one onto the coast as a significant system. Most likely scenarios are weak and across CYP or stronger and off to the graveyard as the jetstream is still planted through the guts of QLD. Would need a miracle, slow-moving cut-off low to alter the jetstream and hurl it back into the coast (GFS extended scenario) but that's dreamland stuff really.


Funny, it looks as though this is exactly what could happen except ex Owen will probably be a hybrid storm displaying both subtropical and tropical features rather than a fully tropical TC. If that's the case then I wouldn't expect it to be named again on its approach to the coast later in the week.

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#1478545 - 05/12/2018 20:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
That what I am thinking.

You may your point there.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1478551 - 05/12/2018 21:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still has the GoC TC too...not sure if it's Owen or a new low.


Maybe that is this one?

SH982019 - INVEST

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH982019
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#1478627 - 06/12/2018 14:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 705
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Ex-Owen LLC still well defined on Visible and also coming into range of Willis Island radar.

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#1478632 - 06/12/2018 15:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Steamy]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 6 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 9 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Owen remains located over the Coral Sea about 600 kilometres east of Cairns and is moving slowly to the west. It is not expected to re-develop into a tropical cyclone.

Another low pressure system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on Saturday night or Sunday but this is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1478716 - 07/12/2018 12:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
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#1478721 - 07/12/2018 13:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 629
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
How did it reemerge as TC out of nowhere, HWRF-P is showing it as well, making Landfall between Innisfail and Mission Beach.
Also is there any difference between HWRF and HWRF-P other than it being displayed on a bigger map.

HWRF-P of OWEN 05P


Edited by ashestoashes (07/12/2018 13:52)
Edit Reason: Location change

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#1478739 - 07/12/2018 16:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13338
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 7 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 10 December 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

None.
Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Friday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 151.0 degrees east, about 580 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, but may approach the Queensland coast over the weekend and produce strong winds and heavy rainfall about the Central Coast and adjacent districts.

Another tropical low was located east of the Eastern Region near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 162.6 east. This system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on the weekend, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478861 - 08/12/2018 22:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 338
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns


Edited by nimbuss1 (08/12/2018 22:51)

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#1479837 - 13/12/2018 12:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: nimbuss1]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1479917 - 13/12/2018 16:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland


Edited by Mathew (13/12/2018 17:00)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1481224 - 16/12/2018 15:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland


Edited by Mathew (16/12/2018 15:32)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1481228 - 16/12/2018 15:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The weak low is now 1007 hPa.

It's looks great at the moment.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1481237 - 16/12/2018 16:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
_________________________
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#1481373 - 17/12/2018 10:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Just for the archives of this thread I'd like to share what GFS was forecasting a week ago for 4.00 pm today with the remains of TC Owen and what actually likley at 4.00pm today. It cops a bagging sometimes ,and sometimes rightly so but it also offered up a far more realistic rainfall forecast for us locally than EC with EC still putting 500 mm of rain over the Bundaberg region as late as yesterday morning.

The first image is the forecast run for today that was run on the 9th and the second is the run from this morning , for today.





Quite remarkable really. Even the placement of the Low in the Southern Tasman and those well out in the Pacific to the east is astonishing given the time frame.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1481468 - 17/12/2018 22:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2543
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
When was the last time Queensland had a cyclone in the season before Western Australia had one?

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#1481572 - 19/12/2018 09:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Gotta love CMC's latest run. Owen is one tough SoB if this happens.

_________________________
YTD 637.8mm

Daily Obs

Averages

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#1481614 - 19/12/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 908
Loc: North Point
For those who like browsing Wikipedia, the article on Cyclone Althea is today's featured article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Althea
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1481640 - 19/12/2018 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Rawhide]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1198
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
For those who like browsing Wikipedia, the article on Cyclone Althea is today's featured article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Althea


Interesting reading there Rawhide..!..good to see the lessons learnt and the emphasis on improving building codes...it does make you wonder,though, what will happen if Townsville ever gets a direct hit from a Yasi-type storm..

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#1481695 - 20/12/2018 03:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: scott12]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1599
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: scott12

Interesting reading there Rawhide..!..good to see the lessons learnt and the emphasis on improving building codes...it does make you wonder,though, what will happen if Townsville ever gets a direct hit from a Yasi-type storm..

If the houses in Darwin were built to the Cat 5 building code before TC Tracy, I think damage would have been far less.

Fibro houses sitting up on high stumps was a recipe for disaster. Houses coming apart with people huddled inside would be something the survivors would never forget.

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#1481697 - 20/12/2018 07:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1481702 - 20/12/2018 07:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1245
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
What is the record number of times a cyclone has reformed?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 88.5mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 86.5mm

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1482408 - 23/12/2018 06:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
FV3 22 Dec 12z run forecast going wild for cyclone between Fraser Island and New Caledonia around 7 Jan.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=384&r=au&dpdt=
Much too far out, but interesting nonetheless

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#1482430 - 23/12/2018 10:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Amazingly the remains of Owen are still spinning away off the FNQ coast.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482440 - 23/12/2018 12:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13338
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup. What a stayer he is! By the by the 28th the circulation will be a month old! shocked
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1482638 - 25/12/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Washed out over the Cape. A couple of the models are hinting at a CS or Gulf system in their outlooks. EC is more interested in a system west of Darwin
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482738 - 26/12/2018 16:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
BoM have the monsoon trough on their chart on Sunday





What happens from there on is anyone's guess with GFS developing a TC in the Coral Sea



while EC wants to develop a Low in the GoC.



CMC also wants a Low/ Cyclone in the Coral Sea but has a completely different scenario to GFS.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482739 - 26/12/2018 16:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 26 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 29 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

In the longer term, the tropics are expected to become more active on the weekend, and the risk of a significant tropical low developing in the northern Coral Sea is likely to increase next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1482802 - 27/12/2018 08:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5366
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, the latest extended GFS has finally woken up to itself and given us what we expect at this time of year: development in the Coral Sea that quickly moves SE.
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#1482813 - 27/12/2018 09:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
..and EC has dumped it's NT secenario and instead crosses a cyclone at Cairns after a recurve off the Cape.

The joys of a MT full of possibility.


_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482888 - 27/12/2018 20:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G convinced of a TC by the 1st/ 2nd Jan 2019
Forming on the far NTh coast on Saturday 29th dec (147e 13 s) as a tropical low on the monsoon trough
Hangs around in the same place for 3 days dumping copious amounts of water up there.
What caught my attention is the speed of increasing intensity in 24 hrs from 1st to 2nd Jan .A possible reason is a strong NW infeed, and a strong southern flank infeed . THe TC is very symmetrical.
By the time an invest is issued ,in 24 hrs it will be a TC on gogo juice. ( according to ACCESS g)
ACCESS badly underdoes the mslp on TC's . Have a look at the prediction 24 hrs after jan 1st.
995-987hpa in 24hrs
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml



Very similar to EC, 4th jan, posted above,except ACCESS 2 days earlier


Edited by crikey (27/12/2018 20:07)
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#1482889 - 27/12/2018 20:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Most of the models want at least one Low up there but pretty much all whisk them off to the east or south east.

Given the forecast of endless ridging in the CS I'm not really surprised.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482909 - 28/12/2018 09:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Happy Birthday Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3875
Loc: Gordonvale
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 6:32 am EST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 30 December 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is expected to form this weekend and extend from Cape York Peninsula into the northern Coral Sea. A weak low lies in the northwest Coral Sea and there is an increasing likelihood of a significant tropical low developing along the monsoon trough from Sunday onwards. However, the location of where this tropical low will form remains uncertain.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Low
_________________________

MTD: 196mm
Jan: 821.8mm
Wet Season TD: 2126.4mm

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#1482911 - 28/12/2018 10:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
18Z GFS run is very ugly for North QLD.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482913 - 28/12/2018 10:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14283
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
New Years Day Cyclone? Would be a great start to the new year.
_________________________
785mm Jan
799mm Feb
70 March
2019 Total 1654mm
2018 Total 822mm






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#1482920 - 28/12/2018 11:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 214
Loc: Andergrove QLD
I left the Himawari 8 receiver on all last night and was watching the bubbling across the top end. Looks unreal. A pity I can't leave it on all the time but it chews 100GB storage per day and I'm only using a little i5 laptop.

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#1482922 - 28/12/2018 11:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2531
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Not sure if anyone has been following the GFS FV3 as well as the 'old' GFS, but it has had TC landfall on the Qld coast for many runs now. It prefers central QLD and lowest pressure in the low 980s. Very different to the 'old' GFS which has only just now come back round to landfall.


Edited by Nature's Fury (28/12/2018 11:42)

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#1482926 - 28/12/2018 11:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
18Z Thu 27 Dec EC shows 920hpa crossing around Cairns/Tully

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#1482927 - 28/12/2018 12:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Most of the models are showing significant changes with each run. They are all over the place at the moment.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482928 - 28/12/2018 12:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
lurker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/09/2010
Posts: 86
Loc: Aitkenvale
@LearJet Whats the pixel size of those images?

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#1482929 - 28/12/2018 12:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1865
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Lows path in fv3 runs appear eerily similar to Marcias track.. 🤔

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#1482930 - 28/12/2018 12:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
Can someone link me a site that runs the FV3 that isn't paywalled. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it for the Australian Region that I can see.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482931 - 28/12/2018 12:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1865
Loc: Rockhampton QLD

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#1482940 - 28/12/2018 14:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting GFS, double TCs for QLD, both looking Cat 3 or more...and the first driving well inland which would be awesome for knocking off a large chunk of the rainfall anomalies across Eastern Aus.

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#1482947 - 28/12/2018 15:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: SMD1125]
Synoptic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 82
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: SMD1125
18Z Thu 27 Dec EC shows 920hpa crossing around Cairns/Tully


What date? Im overseas at the moment.

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#1482949 - 28/12/2018 15:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
Wonder what's causing the difference between GFS FV3 and the old GFS.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482951 - 28/12/2018 15:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
Wonder what's causing the difference between GFS FV3 and the old GFS.


Better resolution? Better modeling of the monsoonal flow?

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#1482959 - 28/12/2018 15:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
00Z run for old GFS seems to have shifted South and lining up more closely with FV3.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482962 - 28/12/2018 16:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 31 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Two tropical lows have been analysed along the developing monsoon trough across the northwestern Coral Sea. These systems are expected to consolidate into a significant tropical low offshore of the Peninsula coast over the next 24 hours.

Atmospheric conditions are currently favourable for development, provided the tropical low remains over water, over the weekend and into next week. As a result, the likelihood of the system developing into a tropical cyclone has increased to moderate for Sunday and high from Monday.

There are currently no other significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High
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#1482963 - 28/12/2018 16:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23708
Loc: Townsville
Uh oh QLD
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#1482965 - 28/12/2018 16:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
00Z run for old GFS seems to have shifted South and lining up more closely with FV3.


Looking very interesting for you guys and eastern Aus if that forecast comes off.

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#1482966 - 28/12/2018 16:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Uh oh QLD


Queue HIGGINS and his minions.

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#1482967 - 28/12/2018 16:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
Lining up the Whitsundays again on GFS. Poor buggers can't catch a break.

I think Daydream Island was just about to re-open too.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482969 - 28/12/2018 16:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 360
Loc: Golden Beach
So am I seeing the low just north of Lockhart River on the Weipa 512. Looks to be loose circulation. Cheers

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#1482970 - 28/12/2018 16:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Kino]
Bundy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/03/2009
Posts: 20
Loc: Bundaberg
He is a bit late to the party, but will amp it up now, for sure.

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#1482972 - 28/12/2018 16:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Locke
Lining up the Whitsundays again on GFS. Poor buggers can't catch a break.

I think Daydream Island was just about to re-open too.


That's 240 hours away..that's Monday of not next week but the week after. It's grain of salt sort of stuff especially when it comes to cyclones.

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#1482977 - 28/12/2018 16:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23708
Loc: Townsville
It's never going to come back if it goes East too far, plus its all going to be down to whether that upper high develops in time or not.

Going to be an interesting week, thats for Sure. Not holding my breath though.
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#1482978 - 28/12/2018 17:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1482982 - 28/12/2018 17:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1482986 - 28/12/2018 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.


Any model at that range should be questioned especially when there's many different steering influences involved unlike a Yasi-type setup.

That said, the latest EC curves it back into the coast as well but as usual, disclaimer - it's over a week away and many things can happen between now and then which can change that track.

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#1482990 - 28/12/2018 18:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2543
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.



I am surprised facebook has not said it will hit Brisbane as category 9 cyclone.

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#1482991 - 28/12/2018 18:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g has the invest hovering at the tip of the peninsula for days . Sitting over land reducing quick intensification.
The ridging extends well north and keeps the developing beast on hold well north at the tip.
( BTW..what will it be called?)

On Wednesday 2nd Jan .. the likely TC starts moving east
Intensification then cranks.
Is it possible to go from a~ cat 2 to a~ CAT 4/5 in 24hrs?
Conditions must be near perfect for rapid development in the coral
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1482995 - 28/12/2018 19:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Here is a map of ACCESS 1km surface winds showing clearly the NW infeed and the southerly infeed.
This wind map is sunday night 11pm. I reckon the BOM will name the cyclone before Monday. Perhaps sunday.
I believe they need 3 quadrants of the invest above 100km/ hr to name it
Can someone clarify that..
That is why l chose the sunday night map. 3 quadrant 34-48knots
1.852 km /hr = 1knot
34 knots = 64 km/hr
1 quadrant 48 to 64 knots


I doubt the ACCESS wind stream legend is accurate . Just like the mslp is not accurate. But visually showing 4 quadrants ramping up.
But l might check with the cyclone services one day , to see if ACCESSr does indeed forecast correct wind speed near the core.
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#1482997 - 28/12/2018 19:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
8pm tonight 28/12/2018
ACCESS r has the tropical low centred 146e 12s Just with( half on land and half at sea. Right at the east tip of peninsula.
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1482998 - 28/12/2018 19:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wait for the day when an extended GFS run shows a system sliding SE away from the coast and someone responds with, "that's a long way out and it might still head to Cairns, Townsville etc"

Extended GFS seems only to be questioned when showing a hit.


Any model at that range should be questioned especially when there's many different steering influences involved unlike a Yasi-type setup.

That said, the latest EC curves it back into the coast as well but as usual, disclaimer - it's over a week away and many things can happen between now and then which can change that track.


Yes ,EC has it hitting the Whitsundays. With TC Owen the models (and a certain storm chaser site) were certain it was going to destroy Sth East Qld when it was still a week out with uncanny agreement. Of course, it didn't eventuate.
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#1482999 - 28/12/2018 19:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Social media being alerted of the INVEST
https://twitter.com/SEQincidents
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#1483000 - 28/12/2018 19:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1224
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Ahh and now to wait for the media and that certain southern storm chasing site to come out with the residual outs headlines...
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#1483012 - 28/12/2018 23:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 908
Loc: North Point
Originally Posted By: crikey
Is it possible to go from a~ cat 2 to a~ CAT 4/5 in 24hrs?


Sure - didn't Marcia do exactly that?

Edit: From the BOM report on Marcia:

"Thursday February 19th, saw tropical cyclone Marcia continue on a south-westerly track and undergo a period of extremely rapid intensification, increasing by two categories to a category 4 severe tropical cyclone in approximately 12 hours. This increase in intensity is well above the average rate of intensification for tropical cyclones anywhere in the world."

The next name on the cyclone list is Penny.


Edited by Rawhide (28/12/2018 23:05)
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#1483018 - 29/12/2018 02:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
While many models have been jumping around a bit, the GFS FV3 has been consistent on coral sea for many days now. I think I posted back around 23 December that FV3 was trying for something.

Overall though 10 days lead time is a long way ahead and anything about likely landfall location is quite speculative given the current quidge. Enjoy the watch, wait, or nothing whichever way it goes.

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#1483021 - 29/12/2018 07:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Another small shift in position of INVEST by ACCESS this morning. Only a few hundred km east and the low is centred on the east coast of the cape . As soon as she hits sea. Boom! Takes off like a gas can thrown into a fire.
The good news is as many have suggested the ridging is persisting and ACCESS showing she will escape the trough and ride east along the top of the ridging
Monday and Tuesday looking the worst for the far tip of the Peninsula as the intensifying TC remains for a few days.
The Tasman high ridging continues into the week keeping the TC from transitioning south.
What l find amazing is that the trough over Australia is still blocked by that tasman high some 6 days from now.
Actually l find that hard to believe that that will happen.

Once the ridge is gone, the possibility of a re-curve toward the coast and into the broad trough currently on Australia becomes a possibility
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

----
Here is a news article on TC for the new year, from the BOM published on MSN news
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fYrC&OCID=HPDHP
-----------
Thankyou 'rawhide ' for that info' on MARCIA cool



Edited by crikey (29/12/2018 07:44)
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#1483031 - 29/12/2018 09:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
raincheck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 206
Loc: Mount Sheridan (Cairns), Qld
Looking at the updated Marine Wind Warning Summary from BOM, a gale warning has been issued for the Peninsula coast for tomorrow.
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#1483049 - 29/12/2018 14:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Locke
Can someone link me a site that runs the FV3 that isn't paywalled. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it for the Australian Region that I can see.


I spoke to Levi and he said "when the FV3-GFS replaces the operational GFS in a couple months, the full suite of products will become available for all regions" .

It looks like there is a Low centred somewhere near Lockhart River at the moment. EC's latest track is interesting. No dancing around out in the Coral Sea like the others are proposing.
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#1483053 - 29/12/2018 14:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3488
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: crikey
Another small shift in position of INVEST by ACCESS this morning. Only a few hundred km east and the low is centred on the east coast of the cape . As soon as she hits sea. Boom! Takes off like a gas can thrown into a fire.
The good news is as many have suggested the ridging is persisting and ACCESS showing she will escape the trough and ride east along the top of the ridging
Monday and Tuesday looking the worst for the far tip of the Peninsula as the intensifying TC remains for a few days.
The Tasman high ridging continues into the week keeping the TC from transitioning south.
What l find amazing is that the trough over Australia is still blocked by that tasman high some 6 days from now.
Actually l find that hard to believe that that will happen.

Once the ridge is gone, the possibility of a re-curve toward the coast and into the broad trough currently on Australia becomes a possibility
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

----
Here is a news article on TC for the new year, from the BOM published on MSN news
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fYrC&OCID=HPDHP
-----------
Thankyou 'rawhide ' for that info' on MARCIA cool



Wonder which side of the Cape it will go, might be doing the same sort of thing TC Owen did? EC kind of looks like it has a secondary circulation which look to be linked due monsoonal flow with multiple areas trying to spin up.


Edited by Steve O (29/12/2018 14:58)

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#1483054 - 29/12/2018 15:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Steve O]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 146.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY
184 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281700Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A
281206Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZING LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
GENERALLY STATIONARY OR A SLIGHT LOOPING MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM
OVER THE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA, AS A SECOND CIRCULATION
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10S
164E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281820Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED, WITH FORMATIVE UPPER LEVEL
BANDING. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 TO 60 HOURS AND
TRACKING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1483058 - 29/12/2018 15:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
raincheck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 206
Loc: Mount Sheridan (Cairns), Qld
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 29 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 1 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough currently extends across far north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further over the coming days, while continuing to extend across this area.
At 2pm AEST Saturday, a number of tropical lows were analysed along the monsoon trough including one off the Peninsula coast, another south of Sudest Island (PNG) and further one near the Solomon Islands. There is a high chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the northern Coral Sea over the next few days.
At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though this will be continually reviewed during the course of the weekend. A Severe Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High
Tuesday:High
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#1483065 - 29/12/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:55 pm Saturday, 29 December 2018.
Heavy rain and damaging winds across far north Queensland.
---
Weather Situation: At 4pm AEST, a slow-moving tropical low was located about 90km east-southeast of Lockhart River. The system is currently embedded within the strengthening monsoon trough, which extends from the Arafura Sea and into the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.
The embedded tropical low is expected to continue intensifying tonight and into Sunday while moving slowly west over Cape York Peninsula. Uncertainty does exist whether the system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria or remain over Cape York Peninsula on Sunday and into Monday. Regardless of its movement, the tropical low and monsoon trough are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, and localised damaging wind gusts.


Six hourly totals between 120mm to 180mm are likely over coastal and adjacent inland areas north of about Cooktown for the remainder of today and extending west across the Peninsula during Sunday. Isolated heavier falls are possible, particularly with embedded thunderstorms.


Damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 90km/h are possible from Sunday afternoon.


Locations which may be affected include
-----------
source and map with warning area highlighted
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ21037.shtml
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#1483068 - 29/12/2018 18:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1011
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 160.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY
140 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290524Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ DEPICTS RAGGED AND
FLARING CONVECTION WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 15-25
KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 24-48 HOURS WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 144.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, APPROXIMATELY
142 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290335Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE (29-30
DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY UNFAVORABLE (GREATER
THAN 30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES POOR, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS EAST FROM THE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290524Z SSMIS F-
16 91GHZ DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE (29-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE
(BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH A EASTWARD TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTEGRATION INTO INVEST
94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt


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#1483070 - 29/12/2018 18:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has the peninsula INVEST growing bigger and bigger in the coral sea as she migrates as a TC , east into the coral sea and sits there on top of the Tasman building plenty of
Excellent surface windstream input, excellent symmetry throughout.
Here is a snap of how ACCESS g sees would could be BIG mamma Penny.
on 4th jan 2019
If this comes off she will look very majestic on sat pic' throughout.

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1483071 - 29/12/2018 18:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5366
Loc: Diamond Valley
Gosh the major models are having a hard time pinning these systems down. This monsoon trough has already spawned three lows and the models have them going left right and centre. It's going to be an interesting week ahead.
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#1483074 - 29/12/2018 19:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
l read in a post above from metoc-navy that they had called another invest 97p
'12.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND'

so l went to ACCESS to check it out.
and wow!
the monsoon trough is in full swing..

ha.. let the models sort this line up out
8pm tonight ACCESS sees 5 lows cool all neatly lined up at ~12s latitude embedded in the monsoon trough.



I would think, the lows with the best windstream infeed will do the best.. feed them and they grow
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1483087 - 29/12/2018 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2142
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Take a look at https://earth.nullschool.net/ for the 1st..2nd..3rd lined up like a freight train out there to the East.

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#1483127 - 30/12/2018 07:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
I couldn't find the tab to select the date on nullsschool.net.. any tips 'marakai'
I did manage to zoomin by clicking on invest 95p and counted 5 lows this morning across the southern hemisphere monsoon trough
I just love that macro wind map.
You can see windsteams pelting down the USA eastern coast ,crossing the equator and entering invest 95p. So cool cool
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-195.00,0.00,599/loc=146.142,-13.626
----
You can see the cape invest rotating on national loop this morning
and you can see rainbands rotating on the 256km Weipa radar with the centre of low near Lockhart river or maybe a tad off shore, .
MSLP 1003 hpa Lockhart river 6.30am
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94186.shtml
certainly looking the part this morning.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml


Edited by crikey (30/12/2018 07:59)
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#1483141 - 30/12/2018 08:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 908
Loc: North Point
Looking at the latest EC. I wonder if a cyclone watch will be declared soon? Category 2 cyclone crossing the west cape on Tuesday before heading east over the cape and out to sea. That's just two days away.
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#1483145 - 30/12/2018 08:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Peachester
Dates: Little arrows alongside 'Control'


Edited by Delta-T (30/12/2018 08:52)

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#1483148 - 30/12/2018 09:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
EC and GFS seem to be in agreement this morning in regard to invest 95p, hope thats the cape one, movements between now and Jan 2nd/3rd.
After that EC has it going to Townsville and GFS Cairns.
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#1483171 - 30/12/2018 10:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 214
Loc: Andergrove QLD
This is the buildup on the cape at 8am this morning. Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B. Some processing by me.


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#1483188 - 30/12/2018 13:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish


FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 144.7E TO 13.0S 138.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 144.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTENSIFYING
QUICKLY, THEN TRACKING BACK EAST. THE LESS FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TRACKING EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310030Z.//
NNNN

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh9519web.txt
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#1483190 - 30/12/2018 14:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: marakai]
T Pyx Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 34
Loc: Glenlee (North Rockhampton)
Just looking at that nullschool stream plot ... and realising that this is just the output of models rather than anything based on field measurements ...

Just south of Nauru, it plots what appears to be a low (streams are converging towards its centre) but it spins in an anti-clockwise direction while technically is just south of the equator. Is that a quirk of the model or can it actually happen?

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#1483194 - 30/12/2018 14:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: T Pyx]
Hailin Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1011
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 1 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 10am AEST Sunday, a slow-moving tropical low was located near the far north Queensland coast, about 65km south-southeast of Lockhart River. The tropical low is situated along a strengthening monsoon trough, which extends across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.

The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula and it is possible that it may move into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Monday. There are indications that the low may take a track back towards the northwest Coral Sea over the coming days and as a result there remains a moderate chance of it forming into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea. For further information about the Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml.

At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though this will be continually reviewed during today and into Monday. A Severe Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

At 10am AEST Sunday, a couple of other tropical lows were situated along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea including one south of Sudest Island (PNG) and another southwest of the Solomon Islands. There is currently a low chance of these systems forming into a tropical cyclone over the coming days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Low

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#1483234 - 30/12/2018 19:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS r has no current tracking in to the GOC. A small shift west tomorrow perhaps but still keen on an easterly track in to the coral sea Monday/tuesday with deep intensification.
Still amazed that Tasman ridge wants to persist.
ACCESS suggests the invest has some elongation over the next 24hrs as another small eddy exists on its eastern flank.
However as 95p intensifies Tuesday morning as the core returns to the far nth east coast, the eddy is quickly gobbled up.
------
ACCESS t+150 hrs showing some southerly transition to 17s as the ridge contracts south. Off the coast of QLD
Massive cyclone
Rotation periphery
north to south 10s to 20 s.
East to west...147e to 164e
Gonna look great
Would love to calculate that area of the coral sea
How many km in 1 latitude?
110 km in a degree of latitude
85km = one degree of longitude


20*110 = 2200km wide
17*85 = 1445 km length

L * W = wow!!
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#1483235 - 30/12/2018 19:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Meteoc Navy
see yasi.shaks post above
I can't read the time of issue.
" THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH."

BOM
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018..

"Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

"
-------
That is a significant difference?????

ACCESS r agrees with Meteoc NAVY
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#1483252 - 30/12/2018 20:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: crikey
Meteoc Navy
see yasi.shaks post above
I can't read the time of issue.
" THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH."

BOM
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018..

"Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

"
-------
That is a significant difference?????

ACCESS r agrees with Meteoc NAVY


The one the BOM is probably referring to is this one.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 168.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 169.5E, APPROXIMATELY
560 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300339Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

The other one i posted earlier would be 95P.
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#1483280 - 31/12/2018 07:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
I Checked the BOM report this morning YASI and BOM are refering to 95p.
I think 94p is out of BOM jurisdiction?
Here is the latest confirming expecting a naming on Tuesday

link
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.html
--------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3

Issued at 4:40 am EST on Monday 31 December 2018

Headline:

The tropical low has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria west of Weipa and is intensifying.


Kowanyama to Saibai Island, extending to adjacent inland areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am AEST [3:30 am ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 110 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 100 kilometres west northwest of Aurukun.

Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour.


The tropical low has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria west of Weipa and is showing signs of further development. It is expected to intensify further as it moves west during today, and

there is a high chance it will develop into a tropical cyclone early on Tuesday.


The system is then expected to turn back towards the Cape York Peninsula coast on Tuesday.
----------
It will be interesting to read the meteoc_navy report today to see if they have changed their mind
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#1483283 - 31/12/2018 07:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS r showing poor symmetry today for 95p. The core showing E_ W elongation. A central location is seen just west of Weipa radar(512km) in the GOC.
ACCESS suggesting an eastward track from tomorrow and into the week , with good symmetry.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR781.loop.shtml#skip

WEIPA mslp 1003hpa. No intensification yet. as you would expect from a ragged elongated core today
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml?ref=hdr
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#1483291 - 31/12/2018 08:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
raincheck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 206
Loc: Mount Sheridan (Cairns), Qld
I recall that back on the 15th, GFS had a cyclone in the Gulf on NYE. We had a bit of a laugh about it at the time, but here we are...
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#1483301 - 31/12/2018 10:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13338
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Please continue discussion regarding 95p in the relevant thread.
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#1485367 - 14/01/2019 10:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2498
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
In the season, what is coming next?
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#1485396 - 14/01/2019 16:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
LonglifeMilk Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Edmonton, Qld
Saw something on facebook around the 28 Jan...to those in the know...anything to it? Can't remember who put it up...sorry!

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#1485398 - 14/01/2019 16:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
gfs toying with a low/tc hanging about the gulf/cape/western coral sea very late in the extended run. monsoonal burst.
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January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
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#1485443 - 15/01/2019 07:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Now CMC and EC go out to the 24th they too have something in the GoC/cape at the end of their run. Looking like we could have an exciting end to the month.


Edited by Simmo FNQ (15/01/2019 07:20)
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#1485481 - 15/01/2019 11:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2136
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Now CMC and EC go out to the 24th they too have something in the GoC/cape at the end of their run. Looking like we could have an exciting end to the month.


Typical, I am in Bali late Jan till mid Feb. You can expect some serious monsoonal rains with incredible convergence lines across the Far North, extending out to Chillagoe with some awesome cyclone potential. I'll be watching from Bali smile

By the time I get back, you can expect dull boring conditions again... hahah
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#1485573 - 16/01/2019 07:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2118
Loc: Mareeba
Hahaha DU. We best start building an ark then.
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#1485864 - 18/01/2019 09:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 128
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
An Ark lol. I'm in Central Qld west of Rockhampton and have had to put down 2 new bores with solar pumps recently to try get some water into my tanks and dams as its drier here than i've ever seen it. Sure we got a little rain and the grass has grown a bit, but the dams are still just sun baked clay and the creeks are scattered puddles at best.
Another lack of wet seasn for us it seems.
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#1485966 - 18/01/2019 22:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: drivenunder]
Mr Dolphin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 690
Loc: Kewarra Beach Qld
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Now CMC and EC go out to the 24th they too have something in the GoC/cape at the end of their run. Looking like we could have an exciting end to the month.


Typical, I am in Bali late Jan till mid Feb. You can expect some serious monsoonal rains with incredible convergence lines across the Far North, extending out to Chillagoe with some awesome cyclone potential. I'll be watching from Bali smile

By the time I get back, you can expect dull boring conditions again... hahah


Miss you already DU.... thanks for the potential rain youll be providing by leaving the country 😀 ☔️

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#1486121 - 20/01/2019 16:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mr Dolphin]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 20 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 23 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST, a tropical low was analysed along a trough, about 370km northeast of Lockhart River. The trough is expected to deepen into the monsoon trough from Monday, further developing the tropical low.

At this stage, the tropical low is forecast to push southwest towards the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. However, due to the potential of the system tracking southeast across the northwestern Coral Sea, the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region will increase to low from Wednesday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Very low
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Low
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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#1486242 - 21/01/2019 15:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1224
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:42 pm EST on Monday 21 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 24 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Monday, a weak tropical low was analysed along the developing monsoon trough, about 190km east of Thursday Island. The system is expected to slowly intensify and track either towards the southwest or southeast over the next few days. Conditions are expected to become more favourable from Thursday and as a result, the potential for tropical cyclone development in either the Gulf of Carpentaria or northwestern Coral Sea will increase .

Another weak tropical low was analysed in the Coral Sea, near 11.8S 158.4E. Atmospheric conditions are not favourable for significant development over the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday:Low
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#1486257 - 21/01/2019 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5158
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
The trending of the models seems to be eastward so i wouldn't be surprised if by the time it all happens it won't be anywhere near the coast

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#1486266 - 21/01/2019 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESSG has a very small Low / TS developing just east of the tip of the cape (146e 11s) on Friday the 25th jan .
On Saturday 26th, the low could be a small INVEST.
On sunday 26th jan ( t+150hrs) tracking E/SE with some intensification and increase in size.
The low is connected to the monsoon trough line but on sunday is just an embedded low along an elongated trough in the coral sea at latitude 14s

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1486651 - 24/01/2019 17:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Weipa radar showing some good circulation and formation .Interesting to see where this one goes.

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#1487745 - 29/01/2019 20:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has the GOC /peninsula low intensifying and moving on to the coral sea by Monday 4th feb (t+150hrs)
with TC status,is centred just off the far nth qld coast

and the southern flank at 20-18s latitude looks to give lots of rain.

Southern flank of TC would be on the Townsville vicinity on Monday with strong easterly onshore .
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (29/01/2019 20:15)
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#1487939 - 30/01/2019 19:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Registered: 01/02/2011
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Loc: Tweed Heads
Whether this GOC/peninsula low gets TC status or not , the current forecast has a massive surface windstream input.
Here is a snap of the TS/TC centred just on the coast at 17s on Tuesday the 5th Feb with the southern flank copping the brunt .
Townsville and maybe south of.
Looks a bit of a beats on this snap .

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1487979 - 30/01/2019 21:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Online   content
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Registered: 27/12/2010
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Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 30 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 2 February 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough currently extends across north Queensland and into the northwestern Coral Sea, with an embedded tropical low over the Gulf Country. the low is not expected to move eastwards into the Coral Sea to become a candidate for tropical cyclone development.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain very active over the coming days with further strengthening of the monsoon flow over the northern Coral Sea expected late in the week and weekend. There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present, however the development of a low over the northern Coral Sea will become more likely over the weekend as the monsoon flow increases.

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, severe weather and moderate to major flooding will remain a risk across northern Queensland.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Low

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#1488011 - 31/01/2019 00:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1877
Loc: Kingaroy
There is an interesting steering pattern in the Coral Sea at the moment, there is a big upper high over the Tasman Sea and an upper low to the north of the upper high.

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#1488466 - 01/02/2019 20:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
A few people on the far nth wet season thread interested in the position of monsoon trough and TC/LOWs during King tide .re : Townsville and dam etc

Here is ACC g's take on the trough for Monday 4th feb
.


Embedded lows across the trough line and strong easterly winds pushing onshore.

Embedded troughs will enhance precipitation and strong easterlies may enhance the king tide.
the southern flank is often the strongest and here on this forecast Townsville is in the firing line at 20s.

The rain signal continues for the far north
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View



Edited by crikey (01/02/2019 20:26)
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#1488530 - 02/02/2019 07:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
KBO Offline
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Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Cairns
Hmmm... Looking at Windy.com it looks like the models have this low in NW Queensland tracks east into the CS and then spins up?

https://www.windy.com/?-18.073,146.997,7

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#1488602 - 02/02/2019 16:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
LonnyDave Offline
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Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 39
So Crikey does that mean that there is no relief in sight for the folks in Townsville?

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#1488605 - 02/02/2019 16:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: LonnyDave]
Mathew Offline
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Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

I'm been watching some things in the Pacific Ocean may come hear the QLD coral sea over the next few days.
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#1488612 - 02/02/2019 17:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
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Registered: 11/01/2006
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Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am going with an high chance maybe.
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> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (03-19-19_ 05:02 pm) Yr 1119mm / Weekly rain 11.7mm month 36.6mm / 11.7mm

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#1488615 - 02/02/2019 17:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Loc: Tweed Heads
crikey to 'Lonnydave'.Access has Townsville on the southern flank of the monsoon trough and the Tropical storm / low for at least the next 6 days. No relief in 6 day forecast
May even go a tad longer
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1488616 - 02/02/2019 17:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2909
Loc: Chillagoe
Townsville getting all the rain it's missed for years, at once.

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#1488644 - 02/02/2019 20:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The extended modeling still leaves the door open for more speculation regarding this low. It's starting to look increasingly likely it will cross the cape and re-emerge back into the Coral Sea but conditions look rubbish for re-intensification at first. There are signs though of conditions becoming more conducive a few days later once shear settles down but it could all be for nothing if the low moves east too quickly. Longer-term modelling and ensembles are not in good agreement at all with the timing of recurve later next week. The slower, the better (from a weather enthusiast's point of view, not for those already suffering from flooding) or else it's off to the E then SE. Normally, I'm the negative nancy but I still think it's too early to call what happens with this low in the longer-term.

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#1488794 - 03/02/2019 13:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
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Seems that AccessG is finally throwing that low into that ESE rubbish bin & nothing for SEQ.

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#1488880 - 03/02/2019 18:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Loc: Tweed Heads
crikey to 'madelf' . the 10 day forecast . a weak ridge lies between SE/QLD and the transitioning low/TS . The outer bands not far from the coast. I reckon we will get something.
What raises my eyebrows is that the TC has no where to transition too. A solid high to its south blocks transition and a ridge ( hill) to its NE hems it in position. The implications are it could stall there? or depends on that incoming trough
On the map below the low is still being fed from the monsonnal flow to its NE .
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/



Edited by crikey (03/02/2019 18:34)
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#1488883 - 03/02/2019 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Registered: 01/02/2011
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Loc: Tweed Heads
I wonder if this low will make TC status in the coral sea off the QLD coast? What say the other models?

( disregard the mslp on this synoptic map. They are not geared to gauge TC intensity)

ACCESS G t+168hrs

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#1488886 - 03/02/2019 18:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Who knows Crikey, it might do a pirouette & come in later on?

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#1489042 - 04/02/2019 06:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I had thought the new GFS FV3 model would among other improvements reduce the tendency for GFS to produce ridiculously low central min pressures on potential cyclones. Does not seem to be the case with the 12Z FV3 run for T+372hrs which is speculating with a 935hpa for that low north east of New Caledonia

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2019020312&fh=372&r=au&dpdt=&mc=

Anyway it is beyond day 5 in the model run so nothing to take seriously for now.

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#1489078 - 04/02/2019 11:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Chris Stumer]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
There is an interesting steering pattern in the Coral Sea at the moment, there is a big upper high over the Tasman Sea and an upper low to the north of the upper high.


Problem has been there's NO steering.

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#1489125 - 04/02/2019 19:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
The extended modeling still leaves the door open for more speculation regarding this low. It's starting to look increasingly likely it will cross the cape and re-emerge back into the Coral Sea but conditions look rubbish for re-intensification at first. There are signs though of conditions becoming more conducive a few days later once shear settles down but it could all be for nothing if the low moves east too quickly. Longer-term modelling and ensembles are not in good agreement at all with the timing of recurve later next week. The slower, the better (from a weather enthusiast's point of view, not for those already suffering from flooding) or else it's off to the E then SE. Normally, I'm the negative nancy but I still think it's too early to call what happens with this low in the longer-term.


All over. Will become yet another victim of the always so hostile atmospheric conditions of the Coral Sea.

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#1489132 - 04/02/2019 20:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Flowin]
hickory Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1599
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I had thought the new GFS FV3 model would among other improvements reduce the tendency for GFS to produce ridiculously low central min pressures on potential cyclones. Does not seem to be the case with the 12Z FV3 run for T+372hrs which is speculating with a 935hpa for that low north east of New Caledonia

This one is GFS, but I thought it was a bit wild.

[img:left][/img]

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#1489378 - 06/02/2019 14:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Flowin]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 502
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I had thought the new GFS FV3 model would among other improvements reduce the tendency for GFS to produce ridiculously low central min pressures on potential cyclones. Does not seem to be the case with the 12Z FV3 run for T+372hrs which is speculating with a 935hpa for that low north east of New Caledonia

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2019020312&fh=372&r=au&dpdt=&mc=

Anyway it is beyond day 5 in the model run so nothing to take seriously for now.


That Fijian system might be something to watch in the longer term and see how far west it could go. Especially if a ridging pattern persists. *jinx jinx*
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#1489405 - 06/02/2019 17:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1365
Loc: toowoomba
Knowing our luck the ridge will suddenly break down sending the potential TC to the great graveyard and then re establish itself again grin


Edited by petethemoskeet (06/02/2019 17:41)

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#1489426 - 06/02/2019 19:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Knowing our luck the ridge will suddenly break down sending the potential TC to the great graveyard and then re establish itself again grin


Yep. The end of the model runs look encouraging for anything tropical in the Coral Sea to be steered from east to west under a deep layer ridge (whereas the ridge running through Coral Sea currently only really exists in the lower/mid levels while the upper levels remain heavily troughy which is supportive of SE movement of stronger systems). But as you say, what's the bet a shortwave pops up out of nowhere and disrupts the predicted 'proper' ridge onto the coast? Sigh.

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#1489505 - 07/02/2019 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And there's the shortwave capture on tonight's EC run. Hahaha.

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#1489535 - 07/02/2019 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
https://imgur.com/SSjkkz0

must be missing something here not seeing any s/w on the run

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#1489539 - 07/02/2019 21:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You're missing the last 4 days of the run. On closer inspection, it hasn't quite been captured but comes close.

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#1489624 - 08/02/2019 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACC G has our ex Nth East coast low developing into an INVEST by ~ Monday 11th feb. On the Fiji/bom border ~163e. Intensifying into a TC by Tuesday the 12th feb . And just to terrorise us some more , starts to track SW on Thursday the 14th as a significant TC..
Certainly a TC watch on the cards soon.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1489715 - 09/02/2019 08:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5366
Loc: Diamond Valley
There appears to be some consensus building between the major models of the tropical low off the FNQ coast moving east and deepening. EC and GFS have it moving east quite quickly and merging with another low pressure area near the Solomons. However, Access G has it moving slower and intensifying into a TC before it has a chance to merge with the other low area. All models then have a general western movement towards the end of their runs. As usual, Access-G is the outlier with quite an intense system sitting perilously close off the Capricorn Coast at the end of its run. The extended GFS (para) has a similarly intense system near Noumea towards the end of its run. It'll be an interesting few weeks ahead.
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#1489720 - 09/02/2019 09:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2543
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
As usual, Access-G is the outlier with quite an intense system sitting perilously close off the Capricorn Coast at the end of its run.


We know it is not going to happen, but we can only hope it does.

Heavy rain from St Lawrence south, to deep inland is desperately needed. All the way down through NSW.

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#1489738 - 09/02/2019 11:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5366
Loc: Diamond Valley
There is a little window of opportunity at the moment for this system (Invest 96P) to organise itself with CIMMS showing relatively low VWS over it at the moment. This has moved the JTWC to issue the following analysis, where it has divided two distinct camps of possibilities:

Quote:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, NAVGEM AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


I have started a new thread on this system here.


Edited by Inclement Weather (09/02/2019 11:43)
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#1491966 - 22/02/2019 10:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
tag Offline
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Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 479
Loc: Alligator creek
Something starting in the far north above Cairns in the CS or just another passing storm

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#1491983 - 22/02/2019 11:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: tag]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2909
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: tag
Something starting in the far north above Cairns in the CS or just another passing storm


Looks interesting.

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#1492353 - 24/02/2019 14:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 245
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
GFS has picked up a system moving towards New Caledonia late next week. Far out but something to watch.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php...&r=au&dpdt=&mc=


Edited by Ahab (24/02/2019 14:08)

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#1492451 - 25/02/2019 16:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5366
Loc: Diamond Valley
Please, nobody look at the latest extended GFS (00UTC). It will turn you into a pillar of salt.
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#1492453 - 25/02/2019 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
ROFL. I already mentioned it in the SE QLD section.

To be fair extended GFS has been hinting at a system coming in from the Coral Sea for about 2 days with a wide array of possible tracks.

EC has hints of a very weak low at 240hrs but nothing like GFS.
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#1492492 - 25/02/2019 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Popeye Online   content
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7908
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bhaha. Classic. Now that would be interesting.
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#1493557 - 08/03/2019 18:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Online   content
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Registered: 01/02/2011
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Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g Has a weak low forming at 152e 5s this week.
... that low slowly strengthening
by Thursday t+162 hrs .. 155e 12s and we will be taking note as tracking is SW on Thursday. At this point the low is a small tropical storm though
Here is Wednesday surface synoptic of the Greater Australian region where you can see the cross equatorial looking more favourable for the coral sea

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1493561 - 08/03/2019 18:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2909
Loc: Chillagoe
Hope it's a slow low and sits over Chillagoe for 4 weeks. None of the dams this side of Dimbulah filled up with the previous rain. They are still at a very low level.

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#1493762 - 11/03/2019 08:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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Loc: The Beach.
GFS has been persisting with a deepening low starting near the Solomons the past few runs.
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#1493776 - 11/03/2019 10:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
tsunami Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2010
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Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Bsch storm has it as quite a substantial cyclone by next tuesday with 100 kt winds
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#1493777 - 11/03/2019 10:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 502
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Only GFS has it strong and moving Generally S/SE due to an interaction of a upper trough. All other models have it weak and crossing the far north QLD coast.
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#1493780 - 11/03/2019 11:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
Humm 12z EPS ens did include members on par with the GFS hit.

https://imgur.com/zZ7SMKx look @ the mean


Edited by vorts (11/03/2019 11:14)

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#1493781 - 11/03/2019 11:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
18Z GFS has a monster system that gets down to 906hPa but recurves before it hits the coast.

GFS runs have certainly been trending more towards to the recurve scenario whilst EC still doesn't want a bar of it.
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#1493793 - 11/03/2019 12:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Locke]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
Originally Posted By: Locke
18Z GFS has a monster system that gets down to 906hPa but recurves before it hits the coast.

GFS runs have certainly been trending more towards to the recurve scenario whilst EC still doesn't want a bar of it.


Yeah the 06 scrape's the coast and the 18z was ots. The 00z should be interesting .TBH .18z run was crashing through the str ridge instead of riding it west as it should. Taking no notice of that run myself.

https://imgur.com/nJRIWtj

https://imgur.com/h3zJe9o

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#1493803 - 11/03/2019 14:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
The model storm of interest has been tagged by JTWC.

92P INVEST 190311 0000 3.6S 150.4E SHEM 15 1010

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#1493824 - 11/03/2019 15:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
GFS 00z Fujiwara absorbs then re-curves ots (out to sea)

edit include run

https://imgur.com/zWa7KfT


Edited by vorts (11/03/2019 15:56)

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#1493879 - 12/03/2019 07:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
EC 12Z is now interested in a potential cyclone off the FNQ coast at about day 8/9. Still a long way out for lead time, but nonetheless something of interest.
ACCESS wants to take it to the GOC.


Edited by Flowin (12/03/2019 07:43)

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#1493890 - 12/03/2019 10:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
EC aligns quite well with the 18Z run at 240 hours. Both show a dust up for the North to Central QLD coasts.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1493891 - 12/03/2019 10:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
Does look touch and go for this to end up a fish storm.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1493896 - 12/03/2019 11:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC is pretty simple really...just one big trough halting any southerly movement past about 20S. GFS on the other hand kills off the trough sooner and builds a ridge under it. Honestly, no idea this far out but given the active jet across QLD atm you'd think the fish scenario would be the most likely. Unless of course, the system winds up very slowly, remains weak and crosses the NTC and heads into the gulf.

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#1493973 - 12/03/2019 19:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
EPS is still very solid with coastal hits. GFS is running offshore
@192hrs with a stall and the fluid transport weighted to west with
the model storm under a building ridge atm.

https://imgur.com/LeJbsZj
EPS

https://imgur.com/PQZbTQh
GFS VT

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#1494035 - 12/03/2019 23:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
gfs 06z now bringing it onto the coast over Tsv at 940hPa. going to be interesting play btw the models. Was a massive upper trough forecast on the weekend and throwing the system SE, expect plenty of more turns on this over the next week.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1494041 - 12/03/2019 23:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mick10]
Sandbank Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 54
Originally Posted By: Mick10
gfs 06z now bringing it onto the coast over Tsv at 940hPa. going to be interesting play btw the models. Was a massive upper trough forecast on the weekend and throwing the system SE, expect plenty of more turns on this over the next week.

Oh my....what do you get a City that has had everything this summer? Let's hope not.

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#1494042 - 12/03/2019 23:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The STJ looks very strong and already well and truly in autumn mode. Either this will probably end up a FNQ cyclone or out to sea imo. It would take something very special like a major LWT or SWT amplification further upstream to alter such a dominant STJ (Hamish) which I can't see any signs of happening atm.


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#1494064 - 13/03/2019 09:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25426
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
totally Mega, gfs back to a SE swing this morning to match your comment.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1494065 - 13/03/2019 09:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
18z GFS the happy hour run, Hallmarks of a Pam 2015, intensification.

https://imgur.com/OrT36YN
menacing


Edited by vorts (13/03/2019 10:05)

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#1494076 - 13/03/2019 11:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
GFS took Oma to Cat 5 also.
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#1494112 - 13/03/2019 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4537
Loc: Brisbane
Heading across the tip of Cape York and off to the West on the 00Z GFS run.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1494118 - 13/03/2019 16:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
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https://imgur.com/TvDYgyh


GFS finally correcting its self, Cyclones cant barrel through the
500 mb str as some of those previous runs displayed.

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#1494119 - 13/03/2019 17:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
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Originally Posted By: Mega
The STJ looks very strong and already well and truly in autumn mode. Either this will probably end up a FNQ cyclone or out to sea imo. It would take something very special like a major LWT or SWT amplification further upstream to alter such a dominant STJ (Hamish) which I can't see any signs of happening atm.



Very nice defluent outfoow to the jet on that plot run. Weak shear upper level to over the cyclone.

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#1494121 - 13/03/2019 17:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 10
Loc: Cairns
A question about steering influences; at what level (height or hpa etc) has the greatest influence on the movement of a developing system?

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#1494131 - 13/03/2019 18:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: youcantbe_cirrus]
vorts Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
Originally Posted By: myCirrus
A question about steering influences; at what level (height or hpa etc) has the greatest influence on the movement of a developing system?


Developing TC 700-850mb

TC 500-850mb

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#1494132 - 13/03/2019 18:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7784
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: vorts
Originally Posted By: Mega
The STJ looks very strong and already well and truly in autumn mode. Either this will probably end up a FNQ cyclone or out to sea imo. It would take something very special like a major LWT or SWT amplification further upstream to alter such a dominant STJ (Hamish) which I can't see any signs of happening atm.



Very nice defluent outfoow to the jet on that plot run. Weak shear upper level to over the cyclone.


Yeah, when you animate it it looks pretty cool. If it stays north it could well wind up as a significant TC but threat to coast south of NQ seems unlikely imo. Looks as though the ECL season is already trying to start up off the NSW coast in fact.

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#1494141 - 13/03/2019 18:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
We do know the basins season usually peaks in March. A friend
living down south @ the gong was telling me just the other day
there is lots of fire fly's still about around there and the Sydney metro. As a rule of thumb when i hear they are about up
north ..NT and gone from the south its the onset of the dry
season coming.


Edited by vorts (13/03/2019 18:49)

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#1494144 - 13/03/2019 19:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2909
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: vorts
We do know the basins season usually peaks in March. A friend
living down south @ the gong was telling me just the other day
there is lots of fire fly's still about around there and the Sydney metro. As a rule of thumb when i hear they are about up
north ..NT and gone from the south its the onset of the dry
season coming.


Dragonflies in Darwin = Dry Season has arrived.

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#1494217 - 14/03/2019 11:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3696
Loc: Buderim
Curiously GFS and EC have swapped, with GFS now sending the cyclone west towards NT, and EC sliding the cyclone down the coast, and quite close to the coast as well.

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#1494222 - 14/03/2019 12:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: cold@28]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 128
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: vorts
We do know the basins season usually peaks in March. A friend
living down south @ the gong was telling me just the other day
there is lots of fire fly's still about around there and the Sydney metro. As a rule of thumb when i hear they are about up
north ..NT and gone from the south its the onset of the dry
season coming.


Dragonflies in Darwin = Dry Season has arrived.


These dry season mornings are the perfect temperature I reckon. Couple weeks and the jumpers and blankets will be coming out too.
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#1494232 - 14/03/2019 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3631
Depends where you live, still feels very much like the wet season here, black ants everywhere, which normally is a sign of more rain to come.

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#1494236 - 14/03/2019 13:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 125
wow @ the 18z happy hour run, huge shift west 916 mb GOC
https://imgur.com/0N45GGe

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#1494263 - 14/03/2019 15:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5366
Loc: Diamond Valley
I've started a new thread here on what is now an obvious developing tropical low.
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#1495087 - 17/03/2019 21:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: vorts
wow @ the 18z happy hour run, huge shift west 916 mb GOC
https://imgur.com/0N45GGe


The models have struggled this season. Obviously some nuances this year affecting accuracy. On other systems in previous years they have done really well even a few days out. Oma was struggle street for all of them. This current Low may be the last roll of the dice for the current season in eastern waters.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1495093 - 17/03/2019 22:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That scenario with a southerly dip would spell some much needed rains right throughout central, southern and eastern Aus especially leading into Mid Autumn.

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#1495094 - 17/03/2019 22:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
That scenario with a southerly dip would spell some much needed rains right throughout central, southern and eastern Aus especially leading into Mid Autumn.


It certainly would.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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