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#1477335 - 27/11/2018 21:07 Change in forecast
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 18
Loc: Heathfield SA
Interesting system about to affect Sydney but the same
system has caused forecast chaos for the Adelaide BOM.
I was amazed Sunday and early Monday when rain up to
30 mm in Adelaide and up to 60 mm for the Hills was
forecast for today Tuesday. On top of what has been a
surprisingly good rainfall month it was like icing on the
cake for November. I have to admit it seemed too good
to be true in what has otherwise been a nasty dry year.
Unfortunately it was too good to be true with the BOM
downgrading Adelaideís rain to 1-4 mm and the Hills 3-8
mm. This latter forecast proved to be quite accurate.
But what went wrong? What changed so dramatically
during Monday? Comments anyone.

#1477357 - 27/11/2018 22:09 Re: Change in forecast [Re: MGD]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 842
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
The computer got it wrong?
An inexperienced weather person got a hold of the media mike?
The bloody weather changed its' mind?

And last but not least a butterfly flapped its' wings ;-)

#1477366 - 27/11/2018 22:17 Re: Change in forecast [Re: MGD]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Location of the low, simple. A few 100kmís can make all the difference.

#1477397 - 27/11/2018 23:44 Re: Change in forecast [Re: MGD]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 18
Loc: Heathfield SA
Yes Low seemed to be a bit further north but nowhere seemed to get the rain forecast. I think it needed Pacific Ocean in feed to build it up which will happen tomorrow and which of course we do not have access to 😒

#1477523 - 28/11/2018 12:04 Re: Change in forecast [Re: MGD]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
Forecasting a low pressure systems track is quite hard especially with other models having it all over the place. It is like heavily influenced tropical systesms, likely to get a clearer picture 12-24hrs out.

I myself found it a big gamble to forecast so much rain considering how many times the low moved: from South of KI to over Noarlunga to as far north as Clare over a few days.

While it would have been nice to get the forecasted rain down here, farmers would not want it at all at this time of year as they enter the harvesting part of the year.


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