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#1481261 - 16/12/2018 17:37 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Dark with thunder in the city. Big thunderstorm barrelling down from the north.

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#1481274 - 16/12/2018 18:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Hobart and Surrounds
for LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Hobart and Surrounds area.

Issued at 5:50 pm Sunday, 16 December 2018.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 5:55 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Hobart, Kingston, Glenorchy, Bellerive, Richmond and Cambridge.

These thunderstorms are moving towards the south to southeast.
They are forecast to affect Sorell, Midway Point and Dodges Ferry by 6:25 pm and Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay by 6:55 pm.

Large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely.

Rainfall of 12 mm within 16 minutes has been detected in severe storms at Leslie Vale in the southeast.

Large hail of 2 cm was reported at Brighton.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 6:50 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Upper Derwent Valley, South East, East Coast, Central Plateau, Midlands and parts of the Western, North West Coast and Central North districts.

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#1481275 - 16/12/2018 18:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Close to 20mm in ~20 minutes. Would have been nice to get the hail..

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#1481280 - 16/12/2018 18:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Got a cracker of a headache now from being pelted by large hail trying to cover car windscreens with blankets!

I've been in contact with the BOM at the airport regarding Obs during this afternoon.

Looking like another cell to the North of Brighton! shocked

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#1481283 - 16/12/2018 18:20 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
The radar showed the storm with a black core on the eastern shore just west of the airport, before it dissipated somewhat ( and then missed the airport altogether: 0.0mm there ). Rare to see a storm of that intensity in the south.



Edited by yep (16/12/2018 18:22)

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#1481293 - 16/12/2018 18:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
27mm all up ( half the December average ). Wettest day since the May flood and second wettest of the year.

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#1481535 - 18/12/2018 19:51 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Nice Christmas weather coming up, and maybe a day or two into the low 30s a little bit after that.

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#1481587 - 19/12/2018 13:15 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Easily going to be yet another 95 % max percentile month for max temps.I'm putting money on another 35 degree Xmas day like the last two years .

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#1481592 - 19/12/2018 14:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
Hobart only reached 21.9 last christmas...

Last 5 were 27.8, 18.8, 36, 26.5, and 21.9

The previous 30 degree Christmas day was 1989 (31.5).

Admittedly, Hobart has only reached 25 or more on Christmas day 6 times since 1980, 3 of them were in the last 5 years. So it has been a warm run of Christmas days, unlikely to be ruined this year.

Different inland, Ouse broke 30 three times in the last 5 years (2013, 2015 and 2017).

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#1481596 - 19/12/2018 15:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Interesting Snowies .. thanks for your time on that
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1481603 - 19/12/2018 15:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
No probs.

Comparing Christmas to Christmas Eve and Boxing Day.

The highest temp on Christmas Day was 36.0 3 years ago. The warmest Christmas Eve was 38.9 and the warmed Boxing Day 38.2.

Christmas Day and Boxing Day both average 21.4, but Christmas Eve just 20.6.

Christmas Day has had 7 days over 30, Boxing Day 6 and Christmas Eve just 3.

The last time Boxing Day reached 30 was 1970, Christmas Eve hasn't hit 30 since 1948 (came very close in 2015 at 29.3).

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#1482431 - 23/12/2018 11:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Here are the low temperature records for Hobart, for the Christmas period:

Coldest Christmas Eve 13.8 in 1972
Followed by 14.4 in 1924 and 14.8 in 1995

Coldest Christmas Day 12.6 in 1984
Followed by 13.4 in 1932 and 13.5 in 2006
The years 1891 and 1925 also came in under 15c

Coldest start to Christmas Day 4.1 in 1972
Followed by 4.5 in 1924 and 5.2 in 1995

There have been quite a few Christmases of settled snow on the mountain and more than just a dusting. Last time was in 2006. Christmas 1972 was quite exceptional, with The Mercury newspaper reporting a 'heavy mantle of snow half way down the mountain' ( so 600m asl or so ). There was 30mm of rain in Hobart in the 24hrs to 9am Christmas Day, and a temperature range of 4.1-15.9c. Unfortunately no data from the Mt Wellington weather station around this time.

From memory of going through The Mercury archives sometime ago , there have also been at least two years where Spring snow drifts have lasted through to Christmas...



Edited by yep (23/12/2018 11:20)

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#1482943 - 28/12/2018 14:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
If my info is right.

Hobart is on track for it's warmest December ever for minimum temps.

Which should beat out December 2017 which had a monthly mean of 13.4 degrees beating out the previous highest of 12.8 degrees.

Currently we are sitting on 13.0 degrees with above average nights predicted for the ending of the month.

16,13 & 13 forecasted.

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#1483033 - 29/12/2018 10:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
The warm and still nights may be prompting the bioluminescent algal blooms in the Derwent this month? Seems to happen fairly regularly nowadays during the warmer months.
The Hobart minimum record is going to fall short but I'm projecting it to be the fourth or fifth warmest December for mean temperature ( min+max ). Last December was the second warmest for mean temperature.

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#1483114 - 30/12/2018 00:59 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
HOBART is very fast becoming HOTBART , year after year and month after month records fall. What were once in a 100 or once every decade records seem to be once a year now days. One only need look and the data from the BOM from the last decade , just about every milestone has been top and topped again on the monthly min and max records. Bring up that data highlighting the 95 % percentiles or records and it looks like a full bingo card. Every number has been crossed off , yet people still love the heat and nothing is broken.
Looking forward to another screaming migraine next Friday 36 on the forecast out this far. If the science community is looking for the 1.5 to 2.5 c average increase in temperature down here is a good start.
Anyways happy stinking hot new year to all , and only 5 months till the one month of Winter appears. Cheers uncle grumpy

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#1483135 - 30/12/2018 08:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Yeah Mountain h2o, it is starting to look a little grim. I’ve heard a bit recently about how bad the situation is getting for Tasmania’s kelp forests now due to warmer waters allowing sea urchins to survive winters and the decline of natural predators, such as rock lobsters. Very worrying.
But nothing much will be done until things go completely wrong. I mean, even in these forums, people who you would think would understand balance and the process of change in the natural world, just post endlessly about wanting heat and some will even complain of a lack of heat when they’re sitting at 1200m in the Snowies and the temp is ‘only’ 27C.
Madness.

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#1483271 - 31/12/2018 00:00 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
As further to the information at hand something interesting.
The mean monthly percentiles readings for 95% or more for the months of March / April / May.

1882 - 1906 = 3
1907 - 1931 = 2
1932 - 1956 = 4
1957 - 1981 = 2
1982 - 2006 = 5
2007 - 2018 = 11
Now the years 1882 - 2006 based on 24 year intervals
Horrendously only 11 years for 11 and counting.
cry

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#1483344 - 31/12/2018 13:53 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
HOBART is very fast becoming HOTBART , year after year and month after month records fall. What were once in a 100 or once every decade records seem to be once a year now days. One only need look and the data from the BOM from the last decade , just about every milestone has been top and topped again on the monthly min and max records. Bring up that data highlighting the 95 % percentiles or records and it looks like a full bingo card. Every number has been crossed off , yet people still love the heat and nothing is broken.
Looking forward to another screaming migraine next Friday 36 on the forecast out this far. If the science community is looking for the 1.5 to 2.5 c average increase in temperature down here is a good start.
Anyways happy stinking hot new year to all , and only 5 months till the one month of Winter appears. Cheers uncle grumpy


Here's hoping to at least a winter like we had in 2015.
I do agree that it feels like winter flies by and summer and it's long days drag on forever even well into March.

Friday will be a stinker.

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#1483551 - 01/01/2019 12:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Happy new year all!! grin

Yep looking forward to a cold stormy winter as well Winter lover!

Very windy out here at Brighton today, strong enough to blow the milk out of your cuppa! raised dust at times is making it horrible, WNW averaging between 40 and 50 km/h with gusts to 73 km/h.

Also warm outside with the temp at 24.9 °C, max yesterday of 29.6 °C.

As has been mentioned about Friday, gonna be a very hot one, just don't need the wind.

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#1483577 - 01/01/2019 16:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Happy new year everyone.

BoM has just confirmed December as the hottest on record for Tasmania, by quite a significant margin. I was a bit surprised at that because Hobart 'only' came in third. This is for mean temperature.

For 2018 overall it was Tasmania's fourth warmest year, and Hobart's second warmest year.

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