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#1477187 - 27/11/2018 14:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Theres warm oceans, and oceans with warm/cool patches. What we are experiencing is a warm Pacific that has more or less linear temperature grading warm to cool W side to E side, probably influenced by a more persistent Humboldt current than would be expected for a "near nino" state. This state, in place for months now, seems to me to prevent nino and nina development while it persists.

Waters off Darwin are as warm or warmer than those in Nino.4. Mexican stand off. Trade winds into Nino.4 from E have remained steady for many weeks, weaker easterlies Westerly anomaly) in eastern Nino.4 and above New Guinea are week in terms of WWB standards, and seem unable to penetrate far enough E within StormSurfs ""Kelvin wave generation zone" to trigger the onset of a Nino, in my humble tiro interpretation.

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#1477191 - 27/11/2018 14:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
As a rough guess I would say the low pressure end would result in increased cloudiness which would then act to cool sea surface temps to then allow the warmer water to cool and sink, bringing the ocean back into equilibrium. The high pressure/low cloudiness side I suppose would heat surface water and eventually result in warming the water but I’d say it might more of a case that the lowering of air pressure would increase the winds across the sea surface, helping to mix the waters of the ocean again, less a cool and sink as is the case on the low pressure side of the SOI.

Just a guess.


SPOT ON. Hence why SOI is always included in the assessment (plus OLR).

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#1477218 - 27/11/2018 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
According to Guilyardi et al Cloud feedback is negative over the warm pool. Warm water results in increased cloudiness which results in cooling. Hence cloudiness as measured by BOM normally acts to reduce the warming feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere. Interestingly enough cloudiness further east is a positive feedback as increased subsidence in the east as the Pacific warms results in less clouds and further warming due to increased solar radiation (Short Wave Radiation feedback). Most other papers discussing cloud feedbacks only mention the negative aspect.

I've searched through a bunch of papers on ENSO Feedbacks.
Several positive feedbacks mentioned in various papers are all related to westerly(easterly) winds - Zonal Advection (changes in east west current), Thermocline feeback (kelvin wave generation) and Bjerkness feedback (changes in evaporative cooling). One further +ve feedback is water vapour feedback - warmer water results in increased water vapour in the atmosphere, which helps to trap heat.

Finally a further negative feedback is the radiative feedback - a warmer ocean radiates more heat into space.

I find no mention of any feedback that can be related to SOI, other than by SOI's potential to influence trade winds.

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#1477220 - 27/11/2018 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Great, then write to the BoM Climate guys and tell them they’re wrong - otherwise move on - ‘Mike said so’ is not an authority to discount the science, clearly utilised by the BoM & anors.

Originally Posted By: BoM
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean now exceed El Niño thresholds. However, atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloudiness, pressure patterns and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have yet to show consistent or sustained signs of El Niño. This clearly indicates that the tropical ocean and atmosphere are not currently reinforcing each other and remain 'uncoupled'. This coupling is required to not only fully develop and sustain an El Niño but is what drives widespread Australian and global weather and climate impacts.


I find nothing that talks about SWR as an indicator - only OLR:

Originally Posted By: NOAA
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data at the top of the atmosphere are observed from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument aboard the NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. Data are centered across equatorial areas from 160°E to 160°W longitude. The raw data are converted into a standardized anomaly index. Negative (Positive) OLR are indicative of enhanced (suppressed) convection and hence more (less) cloud coverage typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes. More (Less) convective activity in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific implies higher (lower), colder (warmer) cloud tops, which emit much less (more) infrared radiation into space. More information can be found at the Climate Prediction Center OLR page.


So summary - STILL NO EL NIÑO.


Edited by Kino (27/11/2018 16:13)

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#1477245 - 27/11/2018 17:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Great, then write to the BoM Climate guys and tell them they’re wrong - otherwise move on - ‘Mike said so’ is not an authority to discount the science, clearly utilised by the BoM & anors.



Argument from authority

Appeal to authority is only valid when you can back it up with a reasonable argument of your own. You have not been able to address any of my points on this topic.

Start with one. Is Cloudiness a -ve feedback as the peer review research clearly states?

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#1477260 - 27/11/2018 18:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I backed it up - posted word for word what the BoM base their decision on - you, however, have not.

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#1477271 - 27/11/2018 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like a tropical low will develop along convergence of said WWB and trade winds along the equator, similar to the one a few months ago. Those who are denying there is a WWB in play clearly aren't looking hard enough.

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#1477276 - 27/11/2018 18:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Did someone deny that?

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#1477278 - 27/11/2018 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Did someone deny that?


Nah my bad, they didn't. Some people in here seem to get upset by the mere mention of, 'El-Nino', 'WWB' and 'Kelvin Wave,' though. I mean, Mike bangs on about WWBs and backs his stuff up with graphics and people still go at him like a pack of wolves. I know it can be excessive but if you dislike it so much than just put him on ignore...that's what the feature is for. I mean, if he were a troll (he isn't) then he'd be a bloody good one at that.

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#1477302 - 27/11/2018 19:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The irony of a person accusing others of trolling while doing exactly the same thing 🙄🙄

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#1477311 - 27/11/2018 19:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
The irony of a person accusing others of trolling while doing exactly the same thing 🙄🙄


Where did I accuse anyone of trolling?

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#1477313 - 27/11/2018 19:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
“Those who are denying...” is your quote and is a troll. No one denied anything. People are entitled to question a forecast model. That’s not denying. That’s inquiring.

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#1477314 - 27/11/2018 19:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
“Those who are denying...” is your quote and is a troll. No one denied anything. People are entitled to question a forecast model. That’s not denying. That’s inquiring.


You said I accused someone of trolling. Where? Who did I accuse of trolling?

And I owned up to that mistake already. I shouldn't have said that. It was wrong. I got caught up in the moment.

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#1477315 - 27/11/2018 20:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Distinguished Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Development of the Central-Pacific El Nino Events

ZHENG Fei, WAN Li-Ying, and WANG Hui

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, Vol 5, No. 2, 123-127

Apologies I cant post the images or links myself (current machine plays up)

Spatial pattern of negative sea surface salinity anomalies and also by distribution at depth (try tao array charts for both),

are currently remarkably characteristic (according to the aforementioned work) to the distribution typical of CP El Nino.

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#1477316 - 27/11/2018 20:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Is Kino really accusing you of being a troll??

The irony....

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#1477322 - 27/11/2018 20:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Whatever the ENSO state is, or is trending, look at the WV entering Aus via Pt Headland to Cairns atm!:


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#1477324 - 27/11/2018 20:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
......Interestingly enough cloudiness further east is a positive feedback as increased subsidence in the east as the Pacific warms results in less clouds and further warming due to increased solar radiation (Short Wave Radiation feedback).


BUT only if we currently have cloudiness in the East, have been watching Pacific IR images avidly. There IS NOT.

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#1477326 - 27/11/2018 20:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Hmmmm, well the way I look at, the ocean or atmosphere, any system that is fundamentally driven by the distribution of energy, will restore to equilibrium in time. Whether this could be imagined to happen more ‘locally’ on either side of the Pacific by way of how I mentioned before or across the Pacific as a whole, I’d have to think about more. Balance is eventually restored, then it’s disrupted, and then It evens itself out again.

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#1477330 - 27/11/2018 20:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 671
Loc: Townsville
Check out how many temperature records have been broken across north QLD. Pretty darn Niño like. But then again if you claim it’s just weather then the same can be said about the October Rains


Edited by gazzatsv (27/11/2018 20:48)

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#1477332 - 27/11/2018 21:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: gazzatsv]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: gazzatsv
Check out how many temperature records have been broken across north QLD. Pretty darn Niño like. But then again if you claim it’s just weather then the same can be said about the October Rains


Yep - you are experiencing Nino like conditions.

I have just got 71.5mm rain in last 14 days. Nina like for us down here potentially breaking a record drought.

You tell me, .....is Aus undergoing La Nina, ....or El Nino????

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