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#1477822 - 29/11/2018 15:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
I'm not misquoting you, I am quoting myself. I am stating simple fact that the OLR data is reflective of a Modoki pattern, and that the OLR data does not show there is no coupling. Stop trying to claim a contradiction where no contradiction exists.


Edited by Mike Hauber (29/11/2018 15:37)

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#1477829 - 29/11/2018 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Quote:
However, atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloudiness, pressure patterns and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have yet to show consistent or sustained signs of El Niño. This clearly indicates that the tropical ocean and atmosphere are not currently reinforcing each other and remain 'uncoupled'. This coupling is required to not only fully develop and sustain an El Niño but is what drives widespread Australian and global weather and climate impacts.


Incorrect.

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#1477831 - 29/11/2018 16:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Incorrect.


Not exactly a strong argument. Quoting BOM adds nothing when I've explained why the BOM are wrong.

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#1477837 - 29/11/2018 17:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
The surface resembles nothing Modoki . Modoki must be the back up to blame for rainfall deficiencies just in case BoM doesn't pull the trigger on classical ENSO next month.

Modoki ElNino has colder than average water in the eastern equatorial pacific that usually extends out towards 120 W and the strongest warm anomalies are in the centre of the pacific. Colder than average waters also pool north of Australia in Modoki reducing moistue infeed from the tropics.

That is definitely not the case now .

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#1477838 - 29/11/2018 17:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The BoM’s rationale is a hell lot stronger than ‘I said so...” 🙄

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#1477839 - 29/11/2018 17:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
The BoM’s rationale is a hell lot stronger than ‘I said so...” 🙄


Yes it's well past ridiculous now.
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#1477841 - 29/11/2018 17:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Typical Modoki pattern. Nothing like the above.

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#1477848 - 29/11/2018 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, SST at Darwin remains the hottest of any equatorial ocean temperature, as it has for 4-5 weeks now.

I reckon forget the anomaly charts, look at ocean temps as they are right now, and relative to each other as they are right now. For the relative temps between oceanic zones is more important than what SST is now, compared to what is was during 1995. ....and dont get me started on why anomalies are mostly based on a 30 year dataset, that itself is near 10 years stale.....

And where the "warm water" is supposed to be (Nino3.4), why doesnt it attract the MJO (which is doing "wheelies" in the Indian Ocean) that should create the strong WWB that should stoke the Modaki?


Edited by Petros (29/11/2018 18:49)

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#1477849 - 29/11/2018 18:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Agreed, surface doesn't look Modoki at all:


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#1477850 - 29/11/2018 18:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Keen to see comment on the potential impact of the cyclone currently mooted for the Coral Sea by GFS over next weeks or so. A WWB "killer"??

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#1477851 - 29/11/2018 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros


And where the "warm water" is supposed to be (Nino3.4), why doesnt it attract the MJO (which is doing "wheelies" in the Indian Ocean) that should create the strong WWB that should stoke the Modaki?


I raised this last week or the week prior and it got no traction. Classic Nino sees the MJO bypass us and re-emerge in the middle of the Pacific .

It hasn't happened.... yet.

Originally Posted By: Petros
Keen to see comment on the potential impact of the cyclone currently mooted for the Coral Sea by GFS over next weeks or so. A WWB "killer"??


CMC has swung away from the CS swimmer and is more aligned to EC now with a weak Low drifting west. GFS certainly sticking to its guns though.
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#1477855 - 29/11/2018 19:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Either way it’ll kill the WWB by sucking it across the Equator - I reckon monsoon trough is trying to form over the Arafura and Timor Seas - classic signs of a Top End MCS moving north over water, lowering pressure.

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#1477856 - 29/11/2018 19:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Most peer reviewed research defines Modoki as warmest SST anomalies near the dateline example

That has certainly been the case this year.

The original research referenced at the bottom of the Jamstec page refers to colder waters in the east, but also lists 1994, 2002 and 2004 as el nino modoki years.

This is what these Modoki el ninos actually look like:







Pretty clear that actual -ve temp anomalies in the east are not actually required for an el nino modoki. Considering the primary authors of these papers are presumably not English speakers (judging by names and published by the Japan agency) it is quite reasonable that by 'colder' they mean not as warm as near the dateline, and not colder than average, consistent with definitions in many other research papers.

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#1477857 - 29/11/2018 19:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Cant really see that much in these arguments.
Modoki is, by its nature, less clear cut, less intense etc

The current equatorial salinity profile is spot on for CP rather than EP.

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#1477858 - 29/11/2018 19:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
I found the link where that image is from .

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

quote....

Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific


Originally Posted By: Mega
Agreed, surface doesn't look Modoki at all:



No it certainly does not. Even the image below shows strongest anomalies are in the east. Blind Freddy could see that .




_________________________


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#1477859 - 29/11/2018 19:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Yes I already discussed the Jamstec page. Did you read my comments about the research papers at the bottom of the Jamstec page, on which the page is based?

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#1477860 - 29/11/2018 20:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Yes Mike I did. The link wasn't for you as you have already ignored the fact that currently the Pacific is warmest in the east, unlike in any of those images you linked. There is no modoki ElNino.
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#1477863 - 29/11/2018 20:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
According to latest BOM weekly, Nino 4 is at 0.86. Nino 3 is at 0.81. The west is still warmer.

One of the years the research behind the Jamstec page lists as modoki is 2002. For November nino 3 was at 1.24, whereas nino 4 was at 0.95. This year is more modoki like than 2002 was.

The east is warming up and may soon overtake the west to make this an east based el nino, but not quite yet. Keep in mind the argument about cloudiness is about what has happened in the last several months, when nino 3 was significantly further behind. I note that recently as nino 3 has started to catch up (it was ahead just barely a week or three ago) that cloudiness has started to show a response in the area that BOM monitor.


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#1477871 - 29/11/2018 22:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Sheesh Mike BOM is wrong and you are right ? Really ? And you accuse me of being a Climate denier ? Your fixation on WWB's and El-Nino is becoming a bit absurd considering that despite all climate indicators you are still clinging to a possible El-Nino to occur as ever, look outside your square for once and consider that there might just be something else out there driving things.

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#1477874 - 29/11/2018 23:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

The east is warming up and may soon overtake the west to make this an east based el nino,


Interesting paper
https://www.researchgate.net/.../2825200...rganizing_map..
[In case link does not work:The relationship between contiguous el nino and la nina revealed by self organising maps,Xin Li et al, Oct 2018]

Includes a table of enso events (nino&nina) 1951-2011 looking at transition between types EP,EP-like, CP and MIX
for Onset, Maturity and Decay stages
and finally a General categorisation.

Only 41% of cases did not transition from the onset type during at least one of the remaining 2 stages

Between Onset and Maturity, 50% of cases transitioned to a different type.

29% of events Onset as CP transitioned to EP or EP-like type at maturity.


Edited by snowbooby (29/11/2018 23:40)

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