NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 2 of 3 < 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1487206 - 26/01/2019 21:14 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g forecast+ 150hrs. GOC low intensifies with shift to the west. Very strong NW inflow.
ACCESS forecasting lots of rain for the vicinity



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1487592 - 28/01/2019 21:51 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am going with my %50 to %50 chance it's might be some things in the next few days or not or who know.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml


Edited by Mathew (28/01/2019 22:05)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

Top
#1487740 - 29/01/2019 19:56 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low intensifying into a TC this week (~ Saturday 2nd feb )but has changed tracking from west to east. ACCESS has the TC in the coral sea by Monday the 4th feb afternoon

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1487820 - 30/01/2019 10:49 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
focus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 3
Loc: Gold Coast, Queensland
Ah, there is rotation (again on radar) in bottom end of the Gulf.

Top
#1487840 - 30/01/2019 12:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Thanks for that update mate.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

Top
#1487883 - 30/01/2019 16:37 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's look like we may have a TC developing still in the GOC.

Some things we still have to watch any way by this outlook people.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml



Edited by Mathew (30/01/2019 16:38)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

Top
#1488233 - 31/01/2019 19:44 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low up there for another 6 days .
slowly tracking east
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml


Edited by crikey (31/01/2019 19:44)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1488254 - 31/01/2019 20:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1656
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: crikey
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low up there for another 6 days .
slowly tracking east

What happened to this ?

Quote:
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low intensifying into a TC this week (~ Saturday 2nd feb )but has changed tracking from west to east. ACCESS has the TC in the coral sea by Monday the 4th feb afternoon

Top
#1488355 - 01/02/2019 11:37 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Some images from about an hour ago this morning. Himawaricast via Jcsat2B. Received with a 2.3m dish.

Australia crop and a close up on band 3 644nm.




Top
#1488418 - 01/02/2019 16:45 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's looks like we maybe see an Possible Tropical cyclone watch later this evening or tonight or tomorrow where this low may go in the Goc or the QLD coral sea who know what it's will do next I mean.

It's really got me at the moment.


Edited by Mathew (01/02/2019 16:56)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

Top
#1488432 - 01/02/2019 17:30 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
These things can get really bigger and small.

That make it's so very interesting to watch.


Edited by Mathew (01/02/2019 17:39)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

Top
#1488451 - 01/02/2019 19:18 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: hickory]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Crikey reply to' hickory'
Here is the initial forecast compared to actual.
ACCESS forecast 6 to 7 days t+150hrs


ACTUAL for tomorrow the 2nd FEB
I believe ACCESS did really well!! . ONLY About 5 deg latitude out , which is about 500km ..


ACCESS g has delayed the far nth coast coral sea venture for now.
I believe the medium term forecast still has the low /TC heading down the East coast.
This is being discussed on the SE/NSW thread over the past week.
The wind stream pattern is currently very strong as forecast but the low is a few hundred km south of forecast, over land

. A cyclone is only named when the core is over sea .
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1488453 - 01/02/2019 19:31 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
oh. I see now what you were asking 'hickory' . About the lows migration to the coral sea. I don't follow the 10 day out model but if you look ACC g has the low/TC in the coral on the 9th feb . ACCESS has stalled the easterly tracking by 5! days.

I find it hard to believe the low will sit there all week .
BUT
synoptic pattern stalling has been the 'thing' at the moment.
Here is the ACCESS 10 day if you want to follow ACC g's form

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/



Edited by crikey (01/02/2019 19:33)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1488458 - 01/02/2019 19:50 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Rotation of low clearly seen on radar
mt isa 512km gives a nice picture.

Lowest mslp l can find was 996.5 hpa at 5.30pm Burketown obs'

radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94260.shtml
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1488601 - 02/02/2019 16:30 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
994.6 now.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:25 pm CST on Saturday 2 February 2019
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 5 February 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is currently situated across northern Queensland. A monsoon low, 995 hPa, is embedded within this trough south of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Very low.
Monday:
Very low.
Tuesday:
Low.

This low is expected to remain slow moving during the next three days; however, there is a slight possibility that it will move into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Tuesday.

Top
#1488892 - 03/02/2019 19:01 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
rotation of low seen on MT isa radar 512km
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR751.loop.shtml#skip
Considering this low is centred over land , the rotating arm bands are quite developed as seen on sat pic , national loop

Just looking at the obs in the lows armbands.
Consistent , persistent wind , all day , all night . Nothing under 30km/hr ,

Julia creek for example

Range of wind speeds 39-44 km/hr for the past 12 hours
Range of gusts ..44-61km/hr for the past 12 hors

Julia creek obs
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94337.shtml


Edited by crikey (03/02/2019 19:07)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1489773 - 09/02/2019 15:29 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
WOW! Now that the cloud has cleared from the gulf, check out the flooding of the Leichardt River from that low that sat there for ages! Comparison from January 2 and today February 9.

Himawaricast images received by me from Jcsat2B. It even shows on full disc images. Totally mad!




Top
#1489774 - 09/02/2019 15:42 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 485
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Wow that explains 80 klms of inland sea with no view of land in sight.
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

Top
#1489775 - 09/02/2019 15:43 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Thanks for that LJ, any chance of a close up of Lake Eyre as it fill's ?

Top
#1489778 - 09/02/2019 15:59 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: marakai]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: marakai
Thanks for that LJ, any chance of a close up of Lake Eyre as it fill's ?


Well I've been saving an image every day so I'll keep an eye on it.

Top
Page 2 of 3 < 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 33 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
MatthewBr, Raweth, Russellmill
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image