Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1477823 - 29/11/2018 15:38 NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6849
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
There is possible Tropical low developing hear the NT.

This may go into the WA or NT/GOC.
See more click onto here.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite



Edited by Mathew (29/11/2018 15:56)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (02-15-19_ 07:47 am) Yr 1063mm / Weekly rain 481.5mm - 0.0mm
month 883.5mm / 00.0mm

Top
#1481231 - 16/12/2018 15:48 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6849
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The Tropical Monsoon is developing out to sea at the moment need to be watch over the coming few days.

A bit of an new weak low.



Edited by Mathew (16/12/2018 15:48)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (02-15-19_ 07:47 am) Yr 1063mm / Weekly rain 481.5mm - 0.0mm
month 883.5mm / 00.0mm

Top
#1482740 - 26/12/2018 16:43 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4193
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 26 December 2018
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 29 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low is located over the Arafura Sea and is expected to track westwards into the Timor Sea over the next couple of days. The low is not expected to develop significantly, though the environment becomes more favourable for development from Friday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Low.

In the longer term, the monsoon trough is expected to form and deepen in the region over the weekend. There is potential for development of another tropical low within the trough, though the location of formation of this low remains uncertain.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


Top
#1482759 - 26/12/2018 20:35 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
For the record. Snap of heavy convection on the top end. with a monsoonal low TS.. approx' marked. 26th dec 2018



and a news article on MSN featuring BOM reporting on the NT recent convection and TC potential

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fIYZ&OCID=HPDHP
------------------------------

and ACCESS Forecast for TC in the GOC new years day

_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1482762 - 26/12/2018 20:47 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
EC latest shifts it away from the GoC and over land nearer Darwin. Then runs it over land towards the south east as a deep monsoonal Low (984hPa ...unlikely)
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1482770 - 26/12/2018 22:21 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Flowin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 751
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
FV3 wants to take low pressure to coral sea at about 168hrs on 00z run today.
It has been trying to stir up coral sea for 4 days or so now.
Lead time is too far for my liking of any models though. So I will just look at the quidge for a while.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

Top
#1482771 - 26/12/2018 22:33 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3146
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It’s an interesting week ahead as any low that develops will head west initially and then, depending on the monsoonal flow strength, may turn back east.

Top
#1482774 - 26/12/2018 23:15 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8745
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I have little doubt that the next ex-TC or 2 will traverse the inland given the upcoming heat, which will have to break somehow.

Top
#1482794 - 27/12/2018 07:12 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g has the GOC TC tracking east onto the far nth tip coast( 126e 12 s) on 2nd Jan.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1482964 - 28/12/2018 16:03 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4193
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight CST Monday 31 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low [1003 hPa] is located over the Timor Sea. The low is expected to move southwest over the next couple of days. The risk of development into a tropical cyclone remains Low to Very Low.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Low.
Sunday:Very Low.
Monday:Very Low.

During Sunday, another tropical low may be located in, or near the Gulf of Carpentaria embedded within a developing monsoon trough. The environment is favourable for further development provided the low remains over water. There is currently a degree of uncertainty whether the tropical low will be located in the Gulf of Carpentaria or in the Coral Sea.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Low.
Monday:Moderate.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


Top
#1483216 - 30/12/2018 17:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4262
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 4:32 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018
Headline:

Cyclone Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Peninsula.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Kowanyama to the Torres Strait Islands.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 142.9 degrees East, estimated to be 130 kilometres east southeast of Weipa and 130 kilometres east of Aurukun.

Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula. The tropical low is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and at this stage it is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.
Hazards:

GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to become more likely across far north Queensland into Monday, particularly about Torres Strait and Cape York. Depending on the movement and development of the tropical low it is possible that these GALES may extend southwards to Kowanyama on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across far north Queensland over the next few days.

TIDES are expected to become higher than predicted through Torres Strait over the next couple of days and it is possible that some islands may see water levels that approach the Highest Astronomical Tide on the high tide on Monday and Tuesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for far north Queensland.

_________________________
MTD: 130.0mm
YTD: 1098.0mm

January- 968.0mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
2018- 3551.9mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

Top
#1483282 - 31/12/2018 07:45 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g 7 day forecast has a tropical low connected to the monsoon trough, forming over the top end. Saturday 5th jan .
T+ 138 hrs
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1486122 - 20/01/2019 16:01 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4193
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 20 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 23 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A trough extends over waters north of the Top End and the Cape York Peninsula. This trough is expected to strengthen into a weak monsoon trough by Monday. A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is currently located within this trough in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to slowly strengthen, move towards the southwest, and is likely to be in the Western Region by Wednesday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Monday:Very Low.
Tuesday:Low.
Wednesday:Very Low.

Another tropical low may move into the northern Gulf of Carpentaria during the next two or three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Monday:Very Low.
Tuesday:Very Low.
Wednesday:Low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


Top
#1486477 - 23/01/2019 19:08 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has a tropical, storm / INVEST emerging on its forecast for Friday the 25th Jan .
The low is on the monsoon trough and forms in the GOC
ACCESS suggesting could be a TC as soon as sunday the 27th jan.
then
On Monday it tracks south and lands on the GOC southern coast
This TS/TC is forecast to have a very strong NW inflow and a strong easterly infeed from the coral . This TS may pack a punch even over land on Monday 138e 17s
(T+150hrs)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
-------
Tomorrow arvo' ACCESS r says you should be able to see the genesis of the small low rotating right on the far tip of the peninsula
------
ACCESS giving a high precipitation signal for those in the far north tip of QLD'
Right along the coast from 20s (bowen) to the northen tip
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (23/01/2019 19:18)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1486486 - 23/01/2019 20:03 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13328
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 23 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 26 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak monsoon trough extends across the northern Top End and northern Cape York Peninsula. A tropical low currently lies embedded within the trough near the Cape York Peninsula. This low is expected to move slowly southwest or southeast over coming days, and is likely to develop if over water.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Thursday:Low.
Friday:Moderate.
Saturday:Moderate.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

Top
#1486490 - 23/01/2019 20:19 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
Each way bet on which side of the Cape it ends up on that forecast.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486502 - 23/01/2019 21:08 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Hailin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 994
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY
40 NM NORTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230000Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, SHOWING A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER CAPE YORK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

Top
#1486660 - 24/01/2019 18:13 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1217
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm EST on Thursday 24 January 2019

Headline:
Tropical low over the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria to intensify and track south

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Mornington Island to Mapoon, including Weipa, Burketown, Normanton and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres northwest of Weipa and 550 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two as it moves slowly to the south.

Hazards:
Gales are not expected to develop along the coast in the next 24 hours, but may develop between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth overnight Friday or Saturday morning and extend south to the remainder of the Watch zone later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to both flash flooding and riverine flooding, is expected to develop across Cape York Peninsula and spread slowly southwards. A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are current over Cape York Peninsula, the eastern Gulf Country and the North Tropical Coast, see: www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

Recommended Action:
People between Mapoon and Mornington Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government.
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

Top
#1486672 - 24/01/2019 18:44 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8745
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
This one will be named Savannah according to wiki, and could be a saviour for many farmers up north.

Top
#1486692 - 24/01/2019 20:07 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
The rainbands on the 256km Weipa radar showing up some good rotation .The core looks to be west of Weipa over water.
Weipa mslp ~ 1003.9 hpa at 6.46pm
Geez
ACCESS g has this TC still spinning up in the GOC all week.t+150hrs
I find that hard to believe!!
Very STRONG NW MONSOONAL INFLOW. The eastern inflow if good as well
Gee that could look quite good on sat pic' as that TC builds .

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

24th jan sat pic

-----
Just as an aside. You just have to love that shear coming of the NW WA low . It looks just like a waterfall flowing on the sat pic' animation cool







Edited by crikey (24/01/2019 20:11)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
36 registered (kizz, Blowin', MattS, Farra, whethertraveller, Jimi, NotsohopefulPete, Robbie Shenton, Taylsy, Hailin, wetdreams, Snapper22lb, bd bucketingdown, pkgjmg, WANDJINA G'vale, Inclement Weather, Nature's Fury, Aussea, Dr Philosophy, mysteriousbrad, UHF_CH10, one drop, Flowin, Mcbobbings, Dawgggg, petethemoskeet, Jajang, Summ3r, Adaminaby Angler, Ahab, Dipole, Sillybanter, 4 invisible), 242 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Darren J, freshy, roves, Summ3r
Forum Stats
29839 Members
32 Forums
24092 Topics
1517656 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image