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#1477823 - 29/11/2018 15:38 NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
There is possible Tropical low developing hear the NT.

This may go into the WA or NT/GOC.
See more click onto here.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite



Edited by Mathew (29/11/2018 15:56)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1481231 - 16/12/2018 15:48 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The Tropical Monsoon is developing out to sea at the moment need to be watch over the coming few days.

A bit of an new weak low.



Edited by Mathew (16/12/2018 15:48)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1482740 - 26/12/2018 16:43 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4205
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 26 December 2018
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 29 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low is located over the Arafura Sea and is expected to track westwards into the Timor Sea over the next couple of days. The low is not expected to develop significantly, though the environment becomes more favourable for development from Friday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Low.

In the longer term, the monsoon trough is expected to form and deepen in the region over the weekend. There is potential for development of another tropical low within the trough, though the location of formation of this low remains uncertain.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1482759 - 26/12/2018 20:35 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
For the record. Snap of heavy convection on the top end. with a monsoonal low TS.. approx' marked. 26th dec 2018



and a news article on MSN featuring BOM reporting on the NT recent convection and TC potential

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fIYZ&OCID=HPDHP
------------------------------

and ACCESS Forecast for TC in the GOC new years day

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#1482762 - 26/12/2018 20:47 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18969
Loc: The Beach.
EC latest shifts it away from the GoC and over land nearer Darwin. Then runs it over land towards the south east as a deep monsoonal Low (984hPa ...unlikely)
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1482770 - 26/12/2018 22:21 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
FV3 wants to take low pressure to coral sea at about 168hrs on 00z run today.
It has been trying to stir up coral sea for 4 days or so now.
Lead time is too far for my liking of any models though. So I will just look at the quidge for a while.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1482771 - 26/12/2018 22:33 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3252
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It’s an interesting week ahead as any low that develops will head west initially and then, depending on the monsoonal flow strength, may turn back east.

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#1482774 - 26/12/2018 23:15 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8782
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I have little doubt that the next ex-TC or 2 will traverse the inland given the upcoming heat, which will have to break somehow.

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#1482794 - 27/12/2018 07:12 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g has the GOC TC tracking east onto the far nth tip coast( 126e 12 s) on 2nd Jan.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1482964 - 28/12/2018 16:03 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4205
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight CST Monday 31 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low [1003 hPa] is located over the Timor Sea. The low is expected to move southwest over the next couple of days. The risk of development into a tropical cyclone remains Low to Very Low.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Low.
Sunday:Very Low.
Monday:Very Low.

During Sunday, another tropical low may be located in, or near the Gulf of Carpentaria embedded within a developing monsoon trough. The environment is favourable for further development provided the low remains over water. There is currently a degree of uncertainty whether the tropical low will be located in the Gulf of Carpentaria or in the Coral Sea.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Low.
Monday:Moderate.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1483216 - 30/12/2018 17:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4268
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 4:32 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018
Headline:

Cyclone Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Peninsula.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Kowanyama to the Torres Strait Islands.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 142.9 degrees East, estimated to be 130 kilometres east southeast of Weipa and 130 kilometres east of Aurukun.

Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula. The tropical low is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and at this stage it is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.
Hazards:

GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to become more likely across far north Queensland into Monday, particularly about Torres Strait and Cape York. Depending on the movement and development of the tropical low it is possible that these GALES may extend southwards to Kowanyama on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across far north Queensland over the next few days.

TIDES are expected to become higher than predicted through Torres Strait over the next couple of days and it is possible that some islands may see water levels that approach the Highest Astronomical Tide on the high tide on Monday and Tuesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for far north Queensland.

_________________________
MTD: 260.4mm
YTD: 2143.2mm

March- 488.7mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
2018- 3551.9mm
________________________
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#1483282 - 31/12/2018 07:45 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g 7 day forecast has a tropical low connected to the monsoon trough, forming over the top end. Saturday 5th jan .
T+ 138 hrs
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
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#1486122 - 20/01/2019 16:01 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4205
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 20 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 23 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A trough extends over waters north of the Top End and the Cape York Peninsula. This trough is expected to strengthen into a weak monsoon trough by Monday. A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is currently located within this trough in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to slowly strengthen, move towards the southwest, and is likely to be in the Western Region by Wednesday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Monday:Very Low.
Tuesday:Low.
Wednesday:Very Low.

Another tropical low may move into the northern Gulf of Carpentaria during the next two or three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Monday:Very Low.
Tuesday:Very Low.
Wednesday:Low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1486477 - 23/01/2019 19:08 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has a tropical, storm / INVEST emerging on its forecast for Friday the 25th Jan .
The low is on the monsoon trough and forms in the GOC
ACCESS suggesting could be a TC as soon as sunday the 27th jan.
then
On Monday it tracks south and lands on the GOC southern coast
This TS/TC is forecast to have a very strong NW inflow and a strong easterly infeed from the coral . This TS may pack a punch even over land on Monday 138e 17s
(T+150hrs)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
-------
Tomorrow arvo' ACCESS r says you should be able to see the genesis of the small low rotating right on the far tip of the peninsula
------
ACCESS giving a high precipitation signal for those in the far north tip of QLD'
Right along the coast from 20s (bowen) to the northen tip
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (23/01/2019 19:18)
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#1486486 - 23/01/2019 20:03 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13340
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 23 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 26 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak monsoon trough extends across the northern Top End and northern Cape York Peninsula. A tropical low currently lies embedded within the trough near the Cape York Peninsula. This low is expected to move slowly southwest or southeast over coming days, and is likely to develop if over water.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Thursday:Low.
Friday:Moderate.
Saturday:Moderate.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1486490 - 23/01/2019 20:19 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18969
Loc: The Beach.
Each way bet on which side of the Cape it ends up on that forecast.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1486502 - 23/01/2019 21:08 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1017
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY
40 NM NORTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230000Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, SHOWING A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER CAPE YORK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

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#1486660 - 24/01/2019 18:13 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1227
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm EST on Thursday 24 January 2019

Headline:
Tropical low over the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria to intensify and track south

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Mornington Island to Mapoon, including Weipa, Burketown, Normanton and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres northwest of Weipa and 550 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two as it moves slowly to the south.

Hazards:
Gales are not expected to develop along the coast in the next 24 hours, but may develop between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth overnight Friday or Saturday morning and extend south to the remainder of the Watch zone later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to both flash flooding and riverine flooding, is expected to develop across Cape York Peninsula and spread slowly southwards. A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are current over Cape York Peninsula, the eastern Gulf Country and the North Tropical Coast, see: www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

Recommended Action:
People between Mapoon and Mornington Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government.
_________________________
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#1486672 - 24/01/2019 18:44 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8782
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
This one will be named Savannah according to wiki, and could be a saviour for many farmers up north.

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#1486692 - 24/01/2019 20:07 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
The rainbands on the 256km Weipa radar showing up some good rotation .The core looks to be west of Weipa over water.
Weipa mslp ~ 1003.9 hpa at 6.46pm
Geez
ACCESS g has this TC still spinning up in the GOC all week.t+150hrs
I find that hard to believe!!
Very STRONG NW MONSOONAL INFLOW. The eastern inflow if good as well
Gee that could look quite good on sat pic' as that TC builds .

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

24th jan sat pic

-----
Just as an aside. You just have to love that shear coming of the NW WA low . It looks just like a waterfall flowing on the sat pic' animation cool







Edited by crikey (24/01/2019 20:11)
_________________________
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#1487206 - 26/01/2019 21:14 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g forecast+ 150hrs. GOC low intensifies with shift to the west. Very strong NW inflow.
ACCESS forecasting lots of rain for the vicinity



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
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#1487592 - 28/01/2019 21:51 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am going with my %50 to %50 chance it's might be some things in the next few days or not or who know.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml


Edited by Mathew (28/01/2019 22:05)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1487740 - 29/01/2019 19:56 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low intensifying into a TC this week (~ Saturday 2nd feb )but has changed tracking from west to east. ACCESS has the TC in the coral sea by Monday the 4th feb afternoon

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1487820 - 30/01/2019 10:49 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
focus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 3
Loc: Gold Coast, Queensland
Ah, there is rotation (again on radar) in bottom end of the Gulf.

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#1487840 - 30/01/2019 12:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Thanks for that update mate.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1487883 - 30/01/2019 16:37 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's look like we may have a TC developing still in the GOC.

Some things we still have to watch any way by this outlook people.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml



Edited by Mathew (30/01/2019 16:38)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1488233 - 31/01/2019 19:44 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low up there for another 6 days .
slowly tracking east
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml


Edited by crikey (31/01/2019 19:44)
_________________________
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#1488254 - 31/01/2019 20:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1615
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: crikey
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low up there for another 6 days .
slowly tracking east

What happened to this ?

Quote:
ACCESS G has the GOC/ peninsula low intensifying into a TC this week (~ Saturday 2nd feb )but has changed tracking from west to east. ACCESS has the TC in the coral sea by Monday the 4th feb afternoon

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#1488355 - 01/02/2019 11:37 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Some images from about an hour ago this morning. Himawaricast via Jcsat2B. Received with a 2.3m dish.

Australia crop and a close up on band 3 644nm.




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#1488418 - 01/02/2019 16:45 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's looks like we maybe see an Possible Tropical cyclone watch later this evening or tonight or tomorrow where this low may go in the Goc or the QLD coral sea who know what it's will do next I mean.

It's really got me at the moment.


Edited by Mathew (01/02/2019 16:56)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1488432 - 01/02/2019 17:30 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
These things can get really bigger and small.

That make it's so very interesting to watch.


Edited by Mathew (01/02/2019 17:39)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1488451 - 01/02/2019 19:18 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: hickory]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Crikey reply to' hickory'
Here is the initial forecast compared to actual.
ACCESS forecast 6 to 7 days t+150hrs


ACTUAL for tomorrow the 2nd FEB
I believe ACCESS did really well!! . ONLY About 5 deg latitude out , which is about 500km ..


ACCESS g has delayed the far nth coast coral sea venture for now.
I believe the medium term forecast still has the low /TC heading down the East coast.
This is being discussed on the SE/NSW thread over the past week.
The wind stream pattern is currently very strong as forecast but the low is a few hundred km south of forecast, over land

. A cyclone is only named when the core is over sea .
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1488453 - 01/02/2019 19:31 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
oh. I see now what you were asking 'hickory' . About the lows migration to the coral sea. I don't follow the 10 day out model but if you look ACC g has the low/TC in the coral on the 9th feb . ACCESS has stalled the easterly tracking by 5! days.

I find it hard to believe the low will sit there all week .
BUT
synoptic pattern stalling has been the 'thing' at the moment.
Here is the ACCESS 10 day if you want to follow ACC g's form

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/



Edited by crikey (01/02/2019 19:33)
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#1488458 - 01/02/2019 19:50 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Rotation of low clearly seen on radar
mt isa 512km gives a nice picture.

Lowest mslp l can find was 996.5 hpa at 5.30pm Burketown obs'

radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94260.shtml
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#1488601 - 02/02/2019 16:30 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
994.6 now.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:25 pm CST on Saturday 2 February 2019
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 5 February 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is currently situated across northern Queensland. A monsoon low, 995 hPa, is embedded within this trough south of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Very low.
Monday:
Very low.
Tuesday:
Low.

This low is expected to remain slow moving during the next three days; however, there is a slight possibility that it will move into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Tuesday.

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#1488892 - 03/02/2019 19:01 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
rotation of low seen on MT isa radar 512km
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR751.loop.shtml#skip
Considering this low is centred over land , the rotating arm bands are quite developed as seen on sat pic , national loop

Just looking at the obs in the lows armbands.
Consistent , persistent wind , all day , all night . Nothing under 30km/hr ,

Julia creek for example

Range of wind speeds 39-44 km/hr for the past 12 hours
Range of gusts ..44-61km/hr for the past 12 hors

Julia creek obs
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94337.shtml


Edited by crikey (03/02/2019 19:07)
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#1489773 - 09/02/2019 15:29 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
WOW! Now that the cloud has cleared from the gulf, check out the flooding of the Leichardt River from that low that sat there for ages! Comparison from January 2 and today February 9.

Himawaricast images received by me from Jcsat2B. It even shows on full disc images. Totally mad!




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#1489774 - 09/02/2019 15:42 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Wow that explains 80 klms of inland sea with no view of land in sight.
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#1489775 - 09/02/2019 15:43 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2212
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Thanks for that LJ, any chance of a close up of Lake Eyre as it fill's ?

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#1489778 - 09/02/2019 15:59 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: marakai]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: marakai
Thanks for that LJ, any chance of a close up of Lake Eyre as it fill's ?


Well I've been saving an image every day so I'll keep an eye on it.

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#1489779 - 09/02/2019 16:04 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2172
Loc: Mareeba
That is awesome, thanks for sharing LJ.
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#1489788 - 09/02/2019 16:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2212
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Learjet
Originally Posted By: marakai
Thanks for that LJ, any chance of a close up of Lake Eyre as it fill's ?


Well I've been saving an image every day so I'll keep an eye on it.


That would be a great sequence to see M8. Thanks! smile

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#1490040 - 12/02/2019 10:29 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 228
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
If a cyclone develops in the Gulf, is that flooded area large or deep enough to help feed the cyclone, should be warm enough.

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#1490346 - 14/02/2019 12:58 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 228
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Maybe its not that silly a question if it can do this. https://twitter.com/i/status/1095840050682695681

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#1490347 - 14/02/2019 13:02 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: justme]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: justme
Maybe its not that silly a question if it can do this. https://twitter.com/i/status/1095840050682695681


Wow, that is neat!

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#1493442 - 07/03/2019 18:31 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 13
Loc: Cairns
From the Bureau:

A tropical low (17U) is forecast to form south of Bali today (Thursday). If it does form, it is expected to track in a west to southwesterly direction and gradually develop, and pass close to Christmas Island late Sunday or during Monday. There is a Low (less than 20%) chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone on Saturday and Sunday, increasing to a Moderate chance on Monday.



Noticed WA haven't had much happening this 18-19 season, anyone know what might have contributed to this?

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#1493444 - 07/03/2019 18:44 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Just one thought 'mycirrus'. From the perspective on mslp patterns.
There has been a high pressure anomaly over the NT regions and surrounds were the nursery for cyclogenesis and then NW/WA systems emerge.
The high pressure anomaly has also likely contributed to the lowest 10% of their monsoon seasons as reported in a weatherzone article recently
It would be interesting to check that correlation with some time series data. There may be a bit of research on that somewhere if you google'


Edited by crikey (07/03/2019 18:45)
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#1493447 - 07/03/2019 19:03 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 13
Loc: Cairns
Thanks crikey. So a persisting higher pressure keeps sitting around the top end? preventing cyclogenesis.

Does that boil down to the luck of the draw with weather systems? or is there a driving factor behind that. Would La nina and El Nino events play a role in this?

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#1493450 - 07/03/2019 19:23 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
There are many here on the forum that study climate drivers and l am sure they will give you some input. I myself ...certainly don't ...believe in luck of the draw.
I believe that a number of interacting climate drivers are likely to be involved.
Some that come to mind is
the SOI. / ENSO
Another is the IOD
Another is the MJO
and l believe the synoptic in the NH is important as well for positioning of strong cross equatorial flow.
and the above is probably not exhaustive.

This looks to be a good article for a start. I must read it all myself.. grin
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-18/monsoon-explaining-the-complex-weather-phenomenon/10722716
But l did quickly skim and read

quote
"The variability in the rainfall onset has largely been linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with it starting earlier in La Nina years and later in El Nino years. "
and wouldn't you know an el nino is forecast this year.
So maybe we might see some action soon. Before the season closes/
-----
If you look at the current cross equatorial , you can see it is currently un favourable for cyclogenesis near Darwin and NW /WA
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (07/03/2019 19:35)
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#1493452 - 07/03/2019 19:37 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 13
Loc: Cairns
A lot of good stuff there. Thanks for the info

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