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#1478075 - 02/12/2018 08:03 Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13341
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
JTWC:

WTPS21 PGTW 011530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301521ZNOV18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S 154.4E TO 15.6S 154.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 154.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY
345 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011124Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 011123Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER AND A LIMITED AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH IN THE
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THEN MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
TO GO EITHER SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021530Z.//
NNNN

BOM Track Map:
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478088 - 02/12/2018 08:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Happy Birthday Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2173
Loc: Mareeba
Where are you finding the BoM Track map RD? Still nothing on the tropical cyclones page.
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YTD 827.6mm
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#1478090 - 02/12/2018 08:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5158
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Time to do a rain dance and ensure it comes in as a weakish system/trough. A good drink now would be a lifesaver for pooor old QLD

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#1478092 - 02/12/2018 08:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1017
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:50 am EST on Sunday 2 December 2018
At 4 am AEST Sunday, a tropical low with central pressure 1000 hPa was located
over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 12.8 south longitude 154.3 east,
which is about 610 km northeast of Willis Island and 1030 km east northeast of
Cairns.

The low is moving south at 9 kilometres per hour and is expected to deepen
further, most likely developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24
hours.

The system will continue drifting south until Monday afternoon or evening, and
is then expected to turn and move slowly west. It is expected to intensify
further during this time. However, this system poses no immediate threat to the
Queensland coast, and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later
in the week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am AEST today.

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#1478094 - 02/12/2018 08:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
BongWater Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2015
Posts: 500
Loc: Redlynch Valley
on the warnings for Qld, on the radar page Simmo
_________________________
Cairns Born, Cairns Bred, When I die I will be Cairns Dead

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#1478095 - 02/12/2018 08:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 483
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Seems if/when named it will become TC Owen
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1478096 - 02/12/2018 08:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2218
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Be nice if it came ashore as a broad low loaded with rain.

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#1478097 - 02/12/2018 09:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 483
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Tnteresting, models all over the place ...CMC actually showing twins 138 hours out


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18120112&fh=138
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1478120 - 02/12/2018 11:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Happy Birthday Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2173
Loc: Mareeba
Cheers BW
_________________________
YTD 827.6mm
Daily
Yearly Stats

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#1478126 - 02/12/2018 12:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 909
Loc: North Point
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:01 am EST on Sunday 2 December 2018
At 10 am AEST Sunday, a tropical low with central pressure 1004 hPa was located
over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 13.7 south longitude 154.1 east,
which is about 530 km east northeast of Willis Island and 960 km east northeast
of Cairns.

The low is moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour and is expected to
deepen further, most likely developing into a tropical cyclone during the next
12 hours.

The system will continue drifting south until Monday afternoon or evening, and
is then expected to turn and move slowly west. It is expected to intensify
further during this time. However, this system poses no immediate threat to the
Queensland coast, and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later
in the week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm AEST today.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1478127 - 02/12/2018 12:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1664
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time-lapse of satellite images from the last 24 hours. Great to see something of interest so early in the season!

https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Queensland.aspx

(Updates every 30 mins)
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

FV3 GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS

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#1478131 - 02/12/2018 13:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5991
Certainly been looking impressive on satellite imagery this morning with healthy solid convection, upper level outflow to its south, and some transverse banding in the cirrus.

1st image - Latest ASCAT satellite wind pass (at 11:02am) suggested most of the strongest winds (> 25-30kt) were still confined to its southern flank which is what you'd expect with the tighter pressure gradient to the south.

2nd image - Bureau's current track map which shows that forecast slow movement for now:




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#1478132 - 02/12/2018 13:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
There is an %50 to %50 chance of this one turning into an cat 3/cat4 later in the week if it's does do that or not.

We will know over the next few days time or this evening maybe.


Edited by Mathew (02/12/2018 13:31)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm - feb-2019 month 883.5mm Mar 173.4mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1478137 - 02/12/2018 14:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 308
Loc: Cairns
Yeah Mathew, its probably gonna hit Townsville as a Cat 4. But it might not either. 50/50 P.s. Some cloud and rain would be welcome the rivers need a good flush out.


Edited by amphetamarine (02/12/2018 14:54)

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#1478165 - 02/12/2018 17:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: amphetamarine]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1017
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Bom have named him.

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#1478167 - 02/12/2018 18:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1369
Loc: toowoomba
Owen it is then.Welcome to the world.

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#1478168 - 02/12/2018 18:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 308
Loc: Cairns
Tropical Storm Owen. We might even get a tightening in the pressure gradient to warrent 25 knot winds.

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#1478169 - 02/12/2018 18:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2957
Loc: Chillagoe
Fingers crossed for some rain.

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#1478175 - 02/12/2018 18:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1664
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a sea surface temperature chart from this morning's data from NOAA. Quite warm in the northern areas of the Coral Sea and warm enough for some more formation.

_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

FV3 GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS

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#1478179 - 02/12/2018 19:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1622
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
How bloody ridiculous naming a low pressure system a cyclone when the central pressure is 998 hpa and winds of 25kts.

I really think around 990 hpa would be more like the start point.

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