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#1480003 - 13/12/2018 18:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Westy80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 143
Loc: Weipa
Is there any chance you think of moving north of Kowanyama?

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#1480008 - 13/12/2018 19:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13369
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks like the eye is *just* making an appearance on the Mornington Is 512km radar, the observations from Centre Island could be interesting this evening, Owen is currently located about 70km to its NNW:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60801/IDD60801.94248.shtml
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1480009 - 13/12/2018 19:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Looks like the eye is *just* making an appearance on the Mornington Is 512km radar, the observations from Centre Island could be interesting this evening, Owen is currently located about 70km to its NNW:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60801/IDD60801.94248.shtml


Those obs will really give us a good idea of just how tiny Owen is. Or if it is getting bigger.

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#1480010 - 13/12/2018 19:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Not much showing up for a cat 3 windwise yet.

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#1480035 - 13/12/2018 19:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 417
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Or rain - closet gauge has 68mm since 9am and the next is 14mm

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#1480037 - 13/12/2018 20:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: marakai]
Unsettled Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/03/2010
Posts: 220
Loc: Trinity Beach
Originally Posted By: marakai
So if Cyclones generally jump a little to the south on interaction with the land when coming in on the East coast are the likely to jump a little to the North when coming in on the West coast ?


Not sure, would the higher terrain of the eastern escarpment have more of an effect than the low-lying gulf coast?
_________________________
Please don't feed the troll. Unless it's me.
Then feed it rum, and sit back to enjoy the show.

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#1480038 - 13/12/2018 20:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Hopefully convection flares up more so in the early morning hours compared to the diurnal maximum during afternoons like thunderstorms over land. Could be abit of a phase as he deepens further moving into openwater away from the coastline tomorrow.


Edited by Steve O (13/12/2018 20:14)

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#1480046 - 13/12/2018 20:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Unsettled]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Unsettled
Originally Posted By: marakai
So if Cyclones generally jump a little to the south on interaction with the land when coming in on the East coast are the likely to jump a little to the North when coming in on the West coast ?


Not sure, would the higher terrain of the eastern escarpment have more of an effect than the low-lying gulf coast?


Yes I reckon you'd be right about that Unsettled though you'd still think there would be some effect even if smaller.

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#1480047 - 13/12/2018 20:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
Latest EC has dropped the intensity along east coast right back with system washing out inland from Mackay

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#1480049 - 13/12/2018 20:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Its pretty flat along that coast so local topography will have a minimal effect.
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785mm Jan
799mm Feb
130 March
2019 Total 1714mm
2018 Total 822mm






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#1480051 - 13/12/2018 20:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: snowmad]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 485
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Originally Posted By: snowmad
Latest EC has dropped the intensity along east coast right back with system washing out inland from Mackay


Happy happy joy joy.. be mindful of burnt out slopes and land slips. Eungella Range in specific
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Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1480075 - 13/12/2018 20:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Hey guys. Does anyone know where I could find the historical KML/Z files for TC Owen, which have published by KTWC to date.

Thanks, MJ

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#1480078 - 13/12/2018 20:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
This model watching makin me dizzy, some got the goods, otherz dont -:
Or they change their mind. LOL


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/12/2018 20:56)

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#1480087 - 13/12/2018 21:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
This model watching makin me dizzy, some got the goods, otherz dont -:
Or they change their mind. LOL

Sitting here wondering if we'll get smashed at middnight Fri/Sat, or whether the weather will do the usual and fizzle when it gets to us. Will we even get enough rain to make the creek run again...?

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#1480109 - 13/12/2018 21:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13369
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Gusts to 40kts at Centre Island now. Owen is about 60km to its North
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1480111 - 13/12/2018 21:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 910
Loc: North Point
Bit of a delay with the latest advice?
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1480112 - 13/12/2018 21:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13369
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup nearly half an hour late now.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1480115 - 13/12/2018 22:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
the last couple of years they always seem to be late

Also - why is the track map issued by Perth not darwin?


Edited by ol mate (13/12/2018 22:07)
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1480118 - 13/12/2018 22:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13369
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 8:35 pm ACST [9:05 pm AEST] on Thursday 13 December 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria and will continue to strengthen as it moves east.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Roper in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen.

Cancelled Zone
Numbulwar to Port Roper

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 6:30 pm ACST [7:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 136.6 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 80 kilometres north of Port McArthur.

Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has started to move to the east away from the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria and out into open waters. The system has shown signs of reintensifying and is likely to continue to develop further over the next 24 hours as it continues to move east through a more favourable environment into the central Gulf of Carpentaria. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre. They may develop near Pellew Group of Islands and adjacent coastal location east of Port McArthur for a period during Thursday evening. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre. They may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track and may extend along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday morning. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend along coastal locations between Port Roper and Port McArthur this evening and then may extend east to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the western and southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Port Roper to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Port Roper to NT/QLD border, including Groote Eylandt and Port McArthur:

- Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.

- Shelters are open in Borroloola.

- Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.

- Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.

- Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Thursday 13 December [11:30 pm AEST Thursday 13 December].
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1480121 - 13/12/2018 22:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13369
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ


_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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