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#1478180 - 02/12/2018 19:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2177
Loc: 中国上૲...
It is not unusual for Cyclones (and Typhoons/Hurricanes) that are close to the equator to be named and have what appears to be "high" central pressures.

The BOM synoptic chart does show a 1013 HPa high pressure system near New Caledonia

Officially they are named when sustained wind speeds reach a threshold (the criteria vary depending on the region of the world)


Edited by Steven (02/12/2018 19:31)

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#1478181 - 02/12/2018 19:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: hickory]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5731
Originally Posted By: hickory
How bloody ridiculous naming a low pressure system a cyclone when the central pressure is 998 hpa and winds of 25kts.

I really think around 990 hpa would be more like the start point.

TC category is determined by sustained wind speed, not central pressure.

As at 4pm EST, the sustained winds were analysed to be 35 knots (threshold for Cat 1 is 34 knots) wrapping more than halfway around the centre for at least 6hrs which officially meets TC criteria.

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#1478182 - 02/12/2018 19:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
bundybear Online   sleepy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2298
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
If I see one more darn twat say "I hope it comes and puts out our fires" then I may not be responsible for what my fingers type.


8 days of being an evacuee is wearing my patience for stupid down very very quickly.


The last thing our fragile ecosystem needs is a bloody wet and windy thing.

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#1478191 - 02/12/2018 20:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: hickory]
scott12 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1149
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: hickory
How bloody ridiculous naming a low pressure system a cyclone when the central pressure is 998 hpa and winds of 25kts.



yeah but how much does the media and subscription based facebook pages love it... wink

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#1478192 - 02/12/2018 21:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: scott12]
BongWater Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2015
Posts: 495
Loc: Redlynch Valley
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: hickory
How bloody ridiculous naming a low pressure system a cyclone when the central pressure is 998 hpa and winds of 25kts.



yeah but how much does the media and subscription based facebook pages love it... wink

and Woolies and Coles ect. went to Coles about 5pm , some people already doing the panic shop smirk
_________________________
Cairns Born, Cairns Bred, When I die I will be Cairns Dead

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#1478194 - 02/12/2018 21:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 333
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:48 pm EST on Sunday 2 December 2018
At 4 pm AEST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Owen, Category 1, with central pressure
998 hPa was located over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 14.1 south
longitude 154.5 east, which is about 545 km east northeast of Willis Is and 990
km east northeast of Cairns.

The tropical low over the northern Coral Sea has recently developed into
Tropical Cyclone Owen. The system has been moving to the south southeast
through today, but has recently slowed to around 8 kilometres per hour. Owen is
expected to deepen further overnight and is likely to reach Category 2 on
Monday.

The system is likely to drift slowly south until Monday afternoon or evening,
and is then expected to turn and move slowly to the west and commence a
weakening trend. This system poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast,
and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later in the week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm AEST today.

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#1478196 - 02/12/2018 21:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 333
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
JTWC.....
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL (90 NM DIAMETER) AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER;
HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE BROADER
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI
AMD A 020613Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE SMALL
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED
JUST ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KTS) SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO AN ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO A COL REGION
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS
NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AN STR ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER
TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
AS THE 700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC 05P PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL
REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD RECURVATURE;
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (175 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72) ON TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
ARE EASTWARD OUTLIERS WHILE GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHWESTWARD
OUTLIERS SHOWING A SHARP AND IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TRACK DIRECTION IN
TEXT BODY AFTER TAU 12 TO WESTWARD INSTEAD OF EASTWARD.//
NNNN

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#1478200 - 02/12/2018 21:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: amphetamarine]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6829
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The BOM still think it's will become an cat 2 Tonight or tomorrow then weakening out that sad news for QLD that need rain most need Townsville from these TC.


Edited by Mathew (02/12/2018 21:54)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (01-18-19_ 05:56 pm) Yr 21.6mm / Weekly rain 4.5mm month 60.0mm / 0.6mm

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#1478201 - 02/12/2018 21:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 333
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Looking good on WZ sat loop.......
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/qld

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#1478208 - 02/12/2018 23:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Still for some reason models don't keep it going as a strong system. Also not much certainty in direction either, there also looks to be an upper trough along the QLD east coast by tues stretching as far as TSVL. Not sure how much shear will increase or if it decreases by mid way through this week.


Edited by Steve O (02/12/2018 23:07)

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#1478209 - 02/12/2018 23:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5731
From the 10am tech bulletin this morning:


" Tropical low 04U has become steadily more organised during the past 24 hours.
Convection has consolidated closer to the centre and curvature has improved. An
ASCAT pass at 23UTC continued to show a slightly elongated low level centre, but
more involved with the deep convection than 12 hours previously, with a swath of
30 knot winds in the southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis using a curved band
pattern yields DT2.5, MET is 2.0, PT is 2.5, FT based on the DT. Intensity is
analysed at 30 knots based on Ascat pass, and consistent with Dvorak analysis.

04U is located in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, with good upper
level outflow on the southern flank. Conditions are expected to be at least
moderately favourable for further development for the next 36 hours, as the
system is steered slowly south by a mid-level ridge to the northeast.

Beyond this time, deep layer wind shear will increase as system approaches
strong upper level westerlies south of latitude 15 degrees south. There is some
uncertainty in the prognosis, but the most likely outcome is that lower level
steering influences will dominate as the system becomes sheared, and the system
will be steered westward as it weakens and becomes a shallower vortex. "

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#1478211 - 03/12/2018 02:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1533
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: hickory
How bloody ridiculous naming a low pressure system a cyclone when the central pressure is 998 hpa and winds of 25kts.

I really think around 990 hpa would be more like the start point.

TC category is determined by sustained wind speed, not central pressure.

As at 4pm EST, the sustained winds were analysed to be 35 knots (threshold for Cat 1 is 34 knots) wrapping more than halfway around the centre for at least 6hrs which officially meets TC criteria.

In the second or third bulletin I saw was saying 25 kts.
I could fart at a greater rate of knots ! smirk

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#1478216 - 03/12/2018 10:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1345
Loc: toowoomba
That could be very painful. 😂

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#1478249 - 03/12/2018 17:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6829
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (01-18-19_ 05:56 pm) Yr 21.6mm / Weekly rain 4.5mm month 60.0mm / 0.6mm

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#1478265 - 03/12/2018 18:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 450
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1478280 - 03/12/2018 19:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 108
Loc: Ayr
Thanks Matthew & batty for posting that great info! 🙂👵🏻

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#1478281 - 03/12/2018 19:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea the 2nd system has been showing up a few times but still does not show any signs of wanting to head west. Cairns might get abit of something..


Edited by Steve O (03/12/2018 19:45)

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#1478289 - 03/12/2018 20:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7502
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Still for some reason models don't keep it going as a strong system. Also not much certainty in direction either, there also looks to be an upper trough along the QLD east coast by tues stretching as far as TSVL. Not sure how much shear will increase or if it decreases by mid way through this week.


Increasing shear from the developing upper trough you mentioned.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120300/gfs_shear_swpac_15.png

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#1478293 - 03/12/2018 20:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Interesting as I wasn't seeing anything upto 50kts over such a huge area. But not where Owen is currently? If it pushes North it will be in better windshear. That trough looks to weaken?


Edited by Steve O (03/12/2018 20:51)

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#1478301 - 03/12/2018 21:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
S.Novaehollandia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2015
Posts: 65
Be Happy people, the Season has started..!
:smiles:
_________________________
Storm Bird [ http://clubtroppo.com.au/2011/02/07/unpacking-the-yasi-hype/ ]

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