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#1481137 - 16/12/2018 09:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: WANDJINA G'vale]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1224
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
No worries smile easy update - closed north and south on Ingham and will be for some time at Seymour river. Im waiting to see what the Cardwell Gap alert records when its daya goes up at 9 am but Id say looking at the alerts around it 300-400mm. I drove back from cairns last night and hit water in several places between Cardwell and Ingham - five mile creek was over the bridge!
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1481139 - 16/12/2018 09:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13338
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Glad I drove back to Townsville from Bilyana yesterday arvo!
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1481150 - 16/12/2018 10:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14283
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Rain: 131mm recorded at my home in Rasmussen, Townsville. Not much by the way of wind. Just steady rain most of last night.

Very light traffic after about 1800hrs due to heavy rain periods. No reports from family of any local flooding around there areas.
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785mm Jan
799mm Feb
70 March
2019 Total 1654mm
2018 Total 822mm






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#1481200 - 16/12/2018 13:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2951
Loc: Tweed Heads
Quite a bit of information about the impact of tropical storm owen in this article published by weatherzone and written by BOM staff

extract
Since being downgraded to a low yesterday afternoon the system has tracked south-east and brought torrential rain and thunderstorms to several towns, with levels now confirmed by BOM as "record-breaking" for the Hinchinbrook Shire.

The heaviest totals overnight were at Halifax east of Ingham, which recorded 681 millimetres in the 24 hours since 9:00am yesterday."
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/ex-tr...eensland/528922
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#1481217 - 16/12/2018 14:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2951
Loc: Tweed Heads
Looking at sat pic National radar. Amazing to see how much ts owen has changed since this morning..A compact cotton wool ball on the far nth coast at 9am and at 2.50pm today... .. Just look at how far he has 'rolled' down the coast.
Looks like the contents have been spilled and poured out all down the east coast currently
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml

cloud rotation shows the low centred near cape Upstart near bowen on the 128km bowen radar,
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR243.loop.shtml#skip
with most of the associated cloud activity on the east and southern flank


Edited by crikey (16/12/2018 14:58)
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#1481226 - 16/12/2018 15:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7908
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OK.... Well done Owen. Haha Delivered the goods eventually.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1481375 - 17/12/2018 10:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Thought I would share this here also.

Just for the archives of this thread I'd like to share what GFS was forecasting a week ago for 4.00 pm today with the remains of TC Owen and what actually likley at 4.00pm today. It cops a bagging sometimes ,and sometimes rightly so but it also offered up a far more realistic rainfall forecast for us locally than EC with EC still putting 500 mm of rain over the Bundaberg region as late as yesterday morning.

The first image is the forecast run for today that was run on the 9th and the second is the run from this morning , for today.





Quite remarkable really. Even the placement of the Low in the Southern Tasman and those well out in the Pacific to the east is astonishing given the time frame. At the time of the run Owen was crossing the Cape as a LOW heading west to reform in the GoC.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1481376 - 17/12/2018 10:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5969
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Thought I would share this here also.

Just for the archives of this thread I'd like to share what GFS was forecasting a week ago for 4.00 pm today with the remains of TC Owen and what actually likley at 4.00pm today. It cops a bagging sometimes ,and sometimes rightly so but it also offered up a far more realistic rainfall forecast for us locally than EC with EC still putting 500 mm of rain over the Bundaberg region as late as yesterday morning.

The first image is the forecast run for today that was run on the 9th and the second is the run from this morning , for today.

Quite remarkable really. Even the placement of the Low in the Southern Tasman and those well out in the Pacific to the east is astonishing given the time frame.


What were the other runs of GFS like before and after those particular ones? Was it a one-off or were the other runs fairly consistent? I can't recall.

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#1481378 - 17/12/2018 10:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
It chopped and changed a little but there wasn't much deviation Ken. On that run above it brought it off the coast at Mackay. Like EC it moved the low a little further west over land ,bringing it off the coast near the Gladstone region before moving it back off the coast in later runs as EC did also. Both EC and GFS took it south east to NZ at the end of that run I put up above. So no cigar there, but the 7 days run is pretty amazing really nonetheless.

I read one of your posts recently suggesting GFS is about to go under a major change. I hope they save the good bits.

I can't see back past the 9th Dec run though.


Edited by ColdFront (17/12/2018 10:30)
Edit Reason: Added info regarding placement and model runs
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1481380 - 17/12/2018 10:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5969
Yep, the FV3 is due to become the new version of GFS. Currently due to become fully operational on the 24th Jan but subject to change (products during its testing phase have been available on the web for awhile now though).

It's significantly better than the current version of GFS in many respects but I do seem to find it hit and miss for TC tracks in our region.

More details at: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1474568/Re_FV3_GFS#Post1474568

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#1481382 - 17/12/2018 10:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Thanks for the link .

What do you think they have done wrong to get a day 1 MSLP result that is worse than what's currently on offer in the Southern Hemisphere?
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1481383 - 17/12/2018 10:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5969
I'd treat the MSLP scores with a bit of caution as mentioned in my post on there. MSLP scores can be quite noisy compared to say 500hpa height and 850hpa temp skill.

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#1481389 - 17/12/2018 11:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
Yeah fair enough. That makes sense. It's harder to smooth one day I guess. I'm looking forward to seeing the result anyway.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1481390 - 17/12/2018 11:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7785
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I don't think I could single out a particular model for being better than the other for this one personally. They both had their good and bad in my opinion:

GFS:

-First model to pick up Owen in extended range
-Kept bombing it to stupid MSLP levels off the coast
-Wanted to wash it out or take it into WA
-Eventually aligned with EC after recurve and had Owen as far south as Fraser Island and SEQ but just not for as many runs.

EC:
-Better handling of intensity in CS once formed
-First model to indicate redevelopment in the gulf
-First model to indicate recurve to the SE
-Severely overestimated intensity in the days following recurve
-Severely overestimated SE push all the way down through SEQ for many consectutive runs.

What I will say is I thought FV3 was deplorable through the whole thing.

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#1481392 - 17/12/2018 11:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18952
Loc: The Beach.
I certainly wasn't rubbishing EC. Anyone that dismisses it out of hand is a mug. GFS typically throws up those insane intensities early in its discover of a Low. On rainfall, EC was modelling over 500mm for Bundaberg region yesterday morning. GFS had backed off from the day previously but at no stage was it modelling anything over 200mm for us.

Also I put up in the Coral Sea thread that EC was first to pick it up way back around the 5th of December and on that run it pretty much nailed the position also.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
long way out but EC put what I believe may be the dregs of Owen in the GoC by next Wednesday and back to TC status late next week. A long shot but you never know.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1481393 - 17/12/2018 12:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7785
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, I thought EC handled everything quite poorly after the recurve to be honest but tried to make up for it in the end.

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#1481396 - 17/12/2018 12:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13338
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Whats left of ex-Owen now appears to be tracking NNW.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1481399 - 17/12/2018 12:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2951
Loc: Tweed Heads
Interesting evaluation of those models..thanks 'guys'
ACCESS shows tropical storm owen centred on the coastline
btw..tracking map didn't get the coastal hug

the 512 emerald radar shows the centre of TS owen on creal reef ( east of mackay) mslp from the obs is 996hpa
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94371.shtml

ACCESS still has ts owen roughly in the same spot tomorrow with diameter widening but no intensification
Townsville and north of at 20-25s, will be on the southern flank tomorrow
windstreams and synoptic confrirm closed circular isobars. It is quite symmetrical currently for a transitioning low. Maybe because its so small

TS owen wil draw a monsoonal flow down its eastern flank tomorrow AND wednesay meaning that the southern flank for the coast will have an equatorial infeed. which on wind streams .

The ACCESS 7 day forecast l believe encompasses 2 models
, it changes over after 3 days on a Wednesday./Thursday/

I say this because on the Thursday owen vanishes off the forecast.
I find the changeover of models annoying especially when the earlier one does so well
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1481409 - 17/12/2018 13:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Patrolit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 70
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Does anyone know were to find sea Temp readings. Trying to find the temp around Creal Reef.

I did night shift at Mackay Harbour over night... when leaving this morning one of the incoming shift workers stated that the Harbour authority had put all the areas coal ships etc on orders to be ready to immediately leave anchorage for sea going to deeper water. due to ex-Owen know sitting over very warm waters. As they are concerned it will have favourable conditions to intensify again.

Thanks

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#1481410 - 17/12/2018 13:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Patrolit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 70
Loc: Mackay, QLD
The radar this morning was interesting to watch... we did keep an eye on it through the night... even though we could just walk out the door and look out and see it raining a blowing at times...

It was quiet a tight a quick rotating mass as it was pushed further out to sea in the early hours before sun up this morning.. Now it seems to have gained some definition looking at the radar.

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