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#1478352 - 04/12/2018 12:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Likely to be an ex-TC by this time tomorrow:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:04 am EST on Tuesday 4 December 2018
At 10 am AEST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Owen, category 1, with central pressure
996 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.8 south longitude 157.3
east, which is about 780 km east of Willis Island and 1240 km east of Cairns.

Tropical cyclone Owen has tracked eastward in the past 6 hours. It has shown
little development overnight and this morning, and is not expected to intensify
further as atmospheric conditions become increasingly unfavourable.

Tropical cyclone Owen is expected to turn westward and begin to weaken during
today. It should weaken below tropical cyclone intensity tonight or during
Wednesday morning.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Owen may move west toward the east tropical
and/or central Queensland coasts later this week. This could result in heavy
rainfall developing about the central and east tropical coasts late in the
week, though there remains a large amount of uncertainty associated with the
movement of the system.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm AEST today.

_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478355 - 04/12/2018 13:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Interesting track map. Livio Regano said it went Cat 2 last night.
_________________________


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#1478364 - 04/12/2018 14:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks almost completely wiped out on the sat image now.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478373 - 04/12/2018 15:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1656
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Now Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen. Maybe some rain later in the week if it comes west.

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#1478379 - 04/12/2018 16:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks like what is left of the LLC has started it's trek towards the West on the visible sat image.


Edited by Raindammit (04/12/2018 16:06)
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478389 - 04/12/2018 16:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 910
Loc: North Point
E's not blowin'! 'E's passed on! This cyclone is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of wind, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the track map 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metereological processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CYCLONE!
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1478390 - 04/12/2018 16:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
Yeah RD ...heading west...though as stated in the bulletin below ÖÖÖÖ." there remains a large amount of uncertainty associated
with the movement of the system."

I guess we better not count our chickens too early....it could still be a total fizzer rainwise...or at least where the rain will fall and how much...

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1:46 pm EST on Tuesday 4 December 2018
At 1 pm AEST Tuesday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen, with central pressure 998 hPa
was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.6 south longitude 154.9 east,
which is about 530 km east of Willis Island and 990 km east of Cairns.

Ex-tropical cyclone Owen has turned westward and weakened rapidly in the past 6
to 9 hours. Recent observations suggest the system has now weakened below
tropical cyclone intensity.

The remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Owen may continue to move west towards the
east tropical and/or central Queensland coasts later this week. This could
result in heavy rainfall developing about the central and east tropical coasts
late in the week, though there remains a large amount of uncertainty associated
with the movement of the system.


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#1478726 - 07/12/2018 15:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
will we have TC Owen #2?
GFS is keen, crossing Innisfail to Cardwel, will see how the afternoon model runs go.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1478727 - 07/12/2018 15:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sure looks interesting on satpic some deep convection present

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#1478728 - 07/12/2018 15:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
upper trough helping with that convection, which obviously could assist in the system deepening. BOM showing no signs of interest at this stage, but its got to be in their minds. None the less, with heavy rain and strong winds expect a Severe Weather Warning for at least central regions this weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 7 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 10 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Friday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 151.0 degrees east, about 580 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, but may approach the Queensland coast over the weekend and produce strong winds and heavy rainfall about the Central Coast and adjacent districts.

Another tropical low was located east of the Eastern Region near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 162.6 east. This system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on the weekend, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1478729 - 07/12/2018 15:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I'm just transferring it to the relevant thread.

Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
How did it reemerge as TC out of nowhere, HWRF-P is showing it as well, making Landfall between Innisfail and Mission Beach.
Also is there any difference between HWRF and HWRF-P other than it being displayed on a bigger map.

HWRF-P of OWEN 05P

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#1478735 - 07/12/2018 16:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090





Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I'm just transferring it to the relevant thread.

Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
How did it reemerge as TC out of nowhere, HWRF-P is showing it as well, making Landfall between Innisfail and Mission Beach.
Also is there any difference between HWRF and HWRF-P other than it being displayed on a bigger map.

HWRF-P of OWEN 05P


It didn't really emerge as a TC out of nowhere - some models such as EC have been predicting that it'll re-intensify by around this time so not really a big surprise.

It's also not a TC either (at time of writing this)... although the convection looks good on satpics, you can see it's significantly displaced out towards the system's southeast due to the current shear (you can see the upper level northwesterlies streaming the cloud away to the SE) rather than being more symmetrical as is normally the case for actual TC's in a low shear environment.
The area of strongest winds is also currently asymmetrical (as opposed to more symmetrical for TC's) and mainly confined to its southern and southwestern side where the pressure gradient between ex-Owen and the big Tasman Sea high and associated ridge has helped to strengthen the winds there.

As for the HWRF-P, I'm not 100% sure but it could be tropicaltidbits' own term for the HWRF's parent (bigger) domain in which the smaller HWRF domains nested inside it, float around as they track tropical systems.

Having said that, the forecast phase diagrams from some of the models do suggest that it may take on increasingly TC-like characteristics for a short time as it continues its journey - see above example from the UK model (C = current position).


Edited by Ken Kato (07/12/2018 16:32)

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#1478803 - 08/12/2018 12:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Could Owen make a comeback briefly?

2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY
55 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062333Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MOSTLY
EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WESTERLY TREND OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY GFS IS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
TO WARNING CRITERIA. THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS (25-35 KNOTS) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478812 - 08/12/2018 15:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
You do have to ask the question - medium chance by th above report - why only a SWW? I know it wonít be anything major but a cyclone is a cyclone
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1478814 - 08/12/2018 15:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: ol mate]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: ol mate
You do have to ask the question - medium chance by th above report - why only a SWW? I know it wonít be anything major but a cyclone is a cyclone

Because the Bureauís TCWC currently doesnít anticipate that itíll become a tropical cyclone again.

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#1478820 - 08/12/2018 16:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 485
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: ol mate
You do have to ask the question - medium chance by th above report - why only a SWW? I know it wonít be anything major but a cyclone is a cyclone

Because the Bureauís TCWC currently doesnít anticipate that itíll become a tropical cyclone again.


That's enough to blow down anything that hasn't been burned down here. New pockets of rainforest exposed to gale winds is enough.
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1478821 - 08/12/2018 17:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
modelling this afternoon looks to put a cat 1 on the coast in 24 hours.


Jessussssss. Hope they update the SWW shortly to accommodate damaging winds.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1478823 - 08/12/2018 17:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 150.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY
256 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
A 072312Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 05P IS IN AN
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 CELSIUS OFFSET WITH VERY HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE TRACKING OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1478844 - 08/12/2018 19:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 341
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns

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#1478846 - 08/12/2018 19:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen (05P) - Coral Sea/GOC - December 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 341
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns

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