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#1478153 - 02/12/2018 16:47 Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
From Tuesday onward a high will it out to the East allowing the first significant, multi day heat even to build up in Victoria this will be followed by a Cool Change sometime on Friday, with little certainty of the time of this change. Some models have it moving into the SW in the morning and reaching Melbourne by late afternoon and others pushing it through much latter not reaching Melbourne until after midnight. This change is looking stormy at this time. Models also indicate this change may not even reach areas North of the divide allowing the heat to continue into the weekend and possible rebuild next next week.



Current Forecasts:

Wednesday: Mid 30's in the North and mid to high 20s in the South
Thursday: Very hot in the West Near 40 in the Mallee and Wimmera, Mid to 30's in Central and Eastern Areas
Friday: Stormy change moving though leading to little confidence in temps but looking cooler in the SW, very hot 42 in Mildura, Mid-High 30's in Central and Eastern areas with 36°C for Melbourne.
Weekend onward: little relief in terms of temperatures across the north, still mid 30's

Summers about to arrive with a bang, likely looking at our first widespread Total Fire Bans on Friday. Will also dry out most of the recent rain and meaning we enter the danger period from this event until any major rain arrives.


Edited by logansi (02/12/2018 16:55)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1478190 - 02/12/2018 20:45 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
Spectreman Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/09/2018
Posts: 4
Loc: Melbourne
Yep, looks like it will be getting pretty hot in Melbourne this week.
I have to watch out for any bushfire activity in the area of my new workplace (Mt Dandenong), as the area around my work has not seen any significant fire activity for many years. And other TV sites around the place in the bush that I look after.
At least on Code Red days I am not required to attend the office !

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#1478195 - 02/12/2018 21:31 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1323
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread logansi👍

Yep agree with what’s said above.
Things start to get serious from this point
Onwards, if we don’t receive a decent drop
After this looming few warm days then that’s
When we could see things dry out considerably
Quickly (around west south gippy).

Barring last month, we were way down on rainfall
For the 3 months of spring, so I would except
That it won’t take many warm/hot days to cure
The grass.

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#1478205 - 02/12/2018 22:17 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Thanks for the thread logansi👍

Yep agree with what’s said above.
Things start to get serious from this point
Onwards, if we don’t receive a decent drop
After this looming few warm days then that’s
When we could see things dry out considerably
Quickly (around west south gippy).

Barring last month, we were way down on rainfall
For the 3 months of spring, so I would except
That it won’t take many warm/hot days to cure
The grass.


Yeah agreed, despite the recent rain it has mostly been in the 10-40mm range which only has limited impact on the drying cycle especially after such a significant deficit leading into summer.

Again for forested areas the impact is limited the bush will still be very dry from the rainfall deficiencies and while the finer fulls will be nice a wet after the recent rains it only take a few 30°+ windy days to dry them out.

Still a long way out but feeling like a change is about to occur, the cut of lows which has dominated the last month are gone and models are showing a rapid re-warming following the event of this thread, unlike previous events where hot days have been followed by almost a week of cooler weather.

Lot of heat inland, sections of WA looking at 47 this coming weekend.

Also while far from reliable look at this heat signatures from CFS for the next month





Edited by logansi (02/12/2018 22:19)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1478245 - 03/12/2018 17:09 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1323
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah those charts don’t look to good heat wise
For December!
Just had a quick look at the bom heatwave charts
And they put us in a “severe “ heatwave category
For the period of Thursday/Friday and Saturday

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#1478264 - 03/12/2018 18:35 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Logansi.

Yep, looks like the fire season for NW Vic will be underway by the time this thread expires.

Latest models for the weekends change for Vic starting to show a bit of promise, only for localised areas, ...and probably will involve lightning.

Bigger picture seems to show the climate heading towards easterly dip scenarios for E Aus towards the end of this thread. IMO that will repeatedly be the story through to mid Jan, due to the "door becoming open" for moisture to advect into the seasonal Aus heat low ...from both the Coral Sea and the (more typical) NW Aus coast. Fire-wise, lets hope my uneducated gut feel is close to the mark.

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#1478267 - 03/12/2018 19:09 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5144
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Hi Guys, I will be down in the Yarra Valley from Wednesday to Saturday, looking forward to this up coming warmth.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1478299 - 03/12/2018 21:07 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Time for summer had enough cold winter.

10am Friday slow moving trough moving in West chances with isolated thunderstorms onward until Tuesday 11th by Stormcast chart and if Virga.





Edited by chasers addict (03/12/2018 21:08)

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#1478321 - 04/12/2018 07:21 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thinking along those lines also Petros, although not with the same fluency of expression ( smile ).

December could turn out OK re fuel rates, ie hopefully not making it worse and even improving moisture levels in forest floor fuel.

Be nice if this bit of a "wet turn" continues and it will be interesting to see what eventuates.

January, seen 176mm January's locally not that long ago, it was like living in the tropics.

Trying to stay optimistic grin

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#1478339 - 04/12/2018 11:26 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: EddyG]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Hi Guys, I will be down in the Yarra Valley from Wednesday to Saturday, looking forward to this up coming warmth.


Hopefully you will also experience a stormy change towards the end smile

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#1478410 - 04/12/2018 18:11 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: Petros]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5144
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Hi Guys, I will be down in the Yarra Valley from Wednesday to Saturday, looking forward to this up coming warmth.


Hopefully you will also experience a stormy change towards the end smile



That would be nice, camera is ready to go.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1478417 - 04/12/2018 18:19 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS latest run keeps the interest up on this next change:




The passing LWT sweeping through the far southern bight waters over the weekend looks to sag back away south/decay by Monday, leaves Vic/SE Aus seemingly in a potential summer easterly dip scenario into next week? - will next week deliver the "spring" storms we have missed this spring over Nth Vic regions?


Edited by Petros (04/12/2018 18:20)

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#1478446 - 04/12/2018 21:37 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Petros
GFS latest run keeps the interest up on this next change:




The passing LWT sweeping through the far southern bight waters over the weekend looks to sag back away south/decay by Monday, leaves Vic/SE Aus seemingly in a potential summer easterly dip scenario into next week? - will next week deliver the "spring" storms we have missed this spring over Nth Vic regions?


really hard one to pick, models are all over the place about what happens after Saturday in fact there is still little confidence in the timing of Fridays change which is still all over the place largely because the change will effectively stall and decay at some point. Models are also struggling with the moisture levels and storm potential with this front.

Latest models including the GFS 06z run which WZ doesn't see are keeping the easterly drip further North leading to little significant rain, EC has been very confident of this all week. All comes down to the strength and speed of the next high. Either way next week will be warm to hot just a matter of if it will be hot and humid with storms or dry.

Overall lets just say its not a great time to be a weather forecaster if your looking trying to compare the major models!


Edited by logansi (04/12/2018 21:44)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1478485 - 05/12/2018 14:39 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like down grade stalling decay trough will bring SE change.

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#1478496 - 05/12/2018 16:55 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Lot of temp upgrades for Friday with change pushed back, now looking 32°C here in Portland, 38°C for Melbourne, 40°C Horsham, 39°C Bendigo, 41°C Mildura. Wind also predicted higher already looking at Severe FDI in Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country, may extend to all western and central districts with only a small further increase.

34°C in Mildura today will be there lowest in the next week.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1478533 - 05/12/2018 19:28 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1323
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
25c today with the hair dryer easterly in
Full mode up here!
Yeah next couple of days looking very warm
And potentially windy bad fire day Friday!!
Lucky the grasslands around here are still pretty
Green, but the bush is very dry.
Regarding rainfall out of this period, looks
Like there’s not to much in it at this stage?
Maybe the north east and east Gippsland might
Get a heavy storm

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#1478620 - 06/12/2018 13:13 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Windy up here of 34c.

Stay very hot in North until good cool SW change next weekend Saturday 15th with some rain likely.


Edited by chasers addict (06/12/2018 13:17)

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#1478658 - 06/12/2018 18:48 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Calm sunny 36C here today. Only about the second day for "spring" that I've seen cumulus clouds having a go (only to humilis) - reflects the cool spring we've had down this way...

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#1478720 - 07/12/2018 13:20 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
My station is displaying 39.4C here atm, fresh northerly. A few more cumulus heat clouds trying to have a go today compared to yest.

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#1478730 - 07/12/2018 15:49 Re: Vic - First Summer Heatwave with possible stormy change 04/12/18 - 09/12/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Sad to hear South Ballarat and Little River fires.

Thunderstorms is warning might development somewhere in West might case more problems is lighting strikes.

Now 37c light winds.

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