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#1478574 - 06/12/2018 05:11 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 990
Loc: Glenorie NSW
You were right about the NE showers Kino. Got woken by moderate rain on the roof at 3am, continued for a while. Still going through metro although BOM 440am has no mention

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#1478588 - 06/12/2018 07:49 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1748
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
EC been looking good for an awesome storm outbreak in a week or so. GFS has a bit of rain and troughy stuff, but nothing too amazing just yet. Access looks pretty shhiite.

Im sure everyone would be pretty stoked if the latest EC comes off.

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#1478591 - 06/12/2018 07:56 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
EC been looking good for an awesome storm outbreak in a week or so. GFS has a bit of rain and troughy stuff, but nothing too amazing just yet. Access looks pretty shhiite.

Im sure everyone would be pretty stoked if the latest EC comes off.


EC is insane...clearly an early Christmas pressie!

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#1478603 - 06/12/2018 10:08 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4777
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Cicadas and leaf blowers, it must be Summer.

I see we got a bit of rain overnight from that NE stream, mostly just a millimetre or two. It's now sunny with scattered puffy white clouds and a light NE'er which will probably get a bit blowy later.

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#1478614 - 06/12/2018 12:46 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7188
Does at it really matter about someone's political views, it's a weather forum ffs.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1478615 - 06/12/2018 12:46 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 591
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Just looking the the Charts there is a huge divergence between EPS and EC. I wouldn't straight away back this pattern, because as you would've all seen there is a TC in the GOC at the same time which doesn't sit right with me. Unless there is another round Sudden Stratospheric Warming on the cards. A very peculiar pattern, but peculiar is what we need.



Edited by ashestoashes (06/12/2018 12:47)

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#1478619 - 06/12/2018 13:06 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Something is triggering EC - it's unusual for it to be so bullish. Usually it's that quiet kid in the corner.

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#1478622 - 06/12/2018 13:21 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8743
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
We're more likely to have a TC in the GOC given the set-up in the tropics, not sure about that big cut-off over the SE. Though my money is on a tropical system invigorating a deep inland trough at some point within the next 3 weeks. QLD to get plenty in the next week or so.

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#1478671 - 06/12/2018 21:17 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4777
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
EC is still going for a trough / low moving across NSW late next week, with widespread heavy rainfalls. A similar event us shown in Access towards the end of its run, although later and less intense. GFS also shows something similar.

So the models seem to be agreeing on widespread significant rain in NSW in 7-10 days' time, but disagree on the details. Will be interesting to keep an eye on it.

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#1478673 - 06/12/2018 21:43 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If ACCESS is on board then itís a goer. GFS is always off playing in the mud.

Looks very very interesting and promising. Will be some substantial totals to finish the year off if that happens.

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#1478675 - 06/12/2018 22:02 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
00z GFS doesnít look that bad Steve?

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#1478678 - 06/12/2018 22:31 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4777
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
GFS doesn't look bad unless you don't want rain. It shows a splodge of 20+ mm falls across the middle if the State from the far West to the Blue Mountains next Thursday, with bullseyes of 40+, up to 80 on the Central Tablelands. The following day, there's a broad band of falls across the coast and Tablelands. It looks warm and stormy, probably with hit and miss heavy falls, so not bad.

It does look likely that there will be widespread heavy falls late next week. Exactly where and when is still up down to how the butterflies flap their wings.

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#1478680 - 06/12/2018 22:56 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 591
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Access is a go from the charts. Also EC has been upgraded in terms of rainfall totals. EPS is beginning to back the upper low over NSW as well.

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#1478684 - 07/12/2018 01:34 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8743
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
GFS 06z is getting wetter for NSW at least. QLD still in for a hammering

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#1478718 - 07/12/2018 13:06 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8743
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
That sea gale already going at it pretty early, gusting over 50km/h on parts of the coast.

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#1478759 - 07/12/2018 21:11 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Wow just wow at EC it keeps upgrading. Now with a tropical low (Ex-Owen?) reaching the north coast!

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#1478763 - 07/12/2018 22:18 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 839
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
MJO and Sam doing its thing again. This time no cut off low. Interesting.

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#1478787 - 08/12/2018 09:04 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC persisting with its forecast of significant widespread rains for whole of eastern Aus! GFS upgraded as well. ACCESS downgraded.

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#1478797 - 08/12/2018 10:24 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1748
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
round of applause for EC if it holds....was onto it very early.

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#1478804 - 08/12/2018 12:33 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3145
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If EC comes off itíll be a game changer for many areas esp for summer.

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