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#1478263 - 03/12/2018 18:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Online   happy
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 436
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
The BOM are keeping eye on another low 4 days outlook BOM.


As I stated earlier on another thread.. too many variables right now
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#1478464 - 05/12/2018 00:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18734
Loc: The Beach.
long way out but EC put what I believe may be the dregs of Owen in the GoC by next Wednesday and back to TC status late next week. A long shot but you never know.

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#1478480 - 05/12/2018 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
GrannyK Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 105
Loc: Ayr
Had a look this morning and again just now at earth wind map & water vapour map just to see what little of Owen was doing. It looks better now than it did this morning why is that?

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#1478481 - 05/12/2018 13:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8645
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
That's a hectic set-up with a TC in the GOC linking up to a storm front over the E inland if it comes off.

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#1478486 - 05/12/2018 15:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6817
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Thanks post that update mate.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 777.3mm > 52.62mm - 150.12mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 63.0mm month 97.5mm / 25.8mm

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#1478514 - 05/12/2018 18:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18734
Loc: The Beach.
EC is modelling some big rain down the coast from Owen's remains, particularly around the Sarina area.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478527 - 05/12/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7355
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC still has the GoC TC too...not sure if it's Owen or a new low.

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#1478534 - 05/12/2018 19:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18734
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still has the GoC TC too...not sure if it's Owen or a new low.


According to the chart on 7 news it would be from a new Low on the Cape.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478536 - 05/12/2018 19:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7355
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
So many things would have to go right to push this one onto the coast as a significant system. Most likely scenarios are weak and across CYP or stronger and off to the graveyard as the jetstream is still planted through the guts of QLD. Would need a miracle, slow-moving cut-off low to alter the jetstream and hurl it back into the coast (GFS extended scenario) but that's dreamland stuff really.


Funny, it looks as though this is exactly what could happen except ex Owen will probably be a hybrid storm displaying both subtropical and tropical features rather than a fully tropical TC. If that's the case then I wouldn't expect it to be named again on its approach to the coast later in the week.

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#1478545 - 05/12/2018 20:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6817
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
That what I am thinking.

You may your point there.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 777.3mm > 52.62mm - 150.12mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 63.0mm month 97.5mm / 25.8mm

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#1478551 - 05/12/2018 21:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mega]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4168
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still has the GoC TC too...not sure if it's Owen or a new low.


Maybe that is this one?

SH982019 - INVEST

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH982019
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#1478627 - 06/12/2018 14:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 704
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Ex-Owen LLC still well defined on Visible and also coming into range of Willis Island radar.

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#1478632 - 06/12/2018 15:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Steamy]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4168
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 6 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 9 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Owen remains located over the Coral Sea about 600 kilometres east of Cairns and is moving slowly to the west. It is not expected to re-develop into a tropical cyclone.

Another low pressure system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on Saturday night or Sunday but this is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1478716 - 07/12/2018 12:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
batty Online   happy
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 436
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
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#1478721 - 07/12/2018 13:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
How did it reemerge as TC out of nowhere, HWRF-P is showing it as well, making Landfall between Innisfail and Mission Beach.
Also is there any difference between HWRF and HWRF-P other than it being displayed on a bigger map.

HWRF-P of OWEN 05P


Edited by ashestoashes (07/12/2018 13:52)
Edit Reason: Location change

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#1478739 - 07/12/2018 16:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13101
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 7 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 10 December 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

None.
Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Friday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 151.0 degrees east, about 580 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, but may approach the Queensland coast over the weekend and produce strong winds and heavy rainfall about the Central Coast and adjacent districts.

Another tropical low was located east of the Eastern Region near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 162.6 east. This system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on the weekend, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
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#1478861 - 08/12/2018 22:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 317
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns


Edited by nimbuss1 (08/12/2018 22:51)

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#1479837 - Yesterday at 12:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: nimbuss1]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4168
Loc: El Arish
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1479917 - Yesterday at 16:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6817
Loc: Townsville, Queensland


Edited by Mathew (Yesterday at 17:00)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 777.3mm > 52.62mm - 150.12mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 63.0mm month 97.5mm / 25.8mm

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