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#1478651 - 06/12/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 83
If the BOM is always wrong as Paulcirrus suggests, I’d encourage them to make the forecast Hot and Dry for every day. poke

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#1478652 - 06/12/2018 18:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1234
Loc: Toowoomba
Went for a drive from Toowoomba to Morayfield via Esk, and Kilcoy recently. Apart from an odd green patch was amazed by the dryness of most areas, especially west of the Brisbane river. Constant blasting from westerlies and now cooler but still dry easterlies and no hope of worthwhile rain. Wish we had such small things to worry and argue about.

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#1478653 - 06/12/2018 18:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Yes, I think just stick to partly cloudy unless you know there will be a good Cirrus or stratus cloud deck comming in from somewhere. I think the BOM are trying to be too exact. Get rid of the percentages and just say possible shower. And Sunday..... Will become partly cloudy, you watch
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1478654 - 06/12/2018 18:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5591
paulcirrus: Did you see my reply to your post?

Also, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to work out what the percentages mean. Chance of rain figures have been used in many other countries around the world for many years. But for some reason as soon as they're introduced here, there's huge drama, outrage and confusion.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The forecasts are never totally reliant on computers.
Forecasters always have the ability to manually edit any forecast including using any local knowledge and this occurs on a regular basis depending on what's thought to be the most realistic scenario. If you spent some days in the forecasting office, you'd be very surprised at just how much manual editing and adjustments are routinely done especially compared to some other states.

As for ENSO phase, there's been countless examples in the past where we've had a number of cloudy days in a row regardless of phase. They tend to be less common during El Nino's but they still do occur especially at this time of year. ENSO phase has a strong correlation with the overall type of conditions we get here on the scale of months but it's not the only factor and day to day synoptic systems can cause conditions to buck the overall trend on smaller time scales and areas.
e.g. floods can still occur in El Nino years.

Not referring to whether the current official forecasts for the coming days will be right or wrong btw.

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#1478670 - 06/12/2018 21:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
All good Ken, never liked the percentages because they really mean nothing especially when someone keeps hanging out for rain and then it doesn't happen. This comment is for people on the land who don't like getting teased especially in the drought. But just my opinion re percentages. No offence intended Ken
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1478698 - 07/12/2018 08:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4836
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..7 DEC 2018 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........67%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SE 8kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1021.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.7C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..S 44kph at 1028
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY...Slight showers throughout - no rain recorded.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1478702 - 07/12/2018 09:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
WATL colour keeps improving for us next week. Keep it up.

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#1478703 - 07/12/2018 10:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandbank Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 26
All good Ken! I copped my 60% chance this morning out on my run at Caloundra South. The guys at BOM do an amazing job in MHO.

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#1478704 - 07/12/2018 10:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1234
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes, Mad Elf, even though it is the second 4-8 day period, I am a tiny bit excited. The rain for the first 4 days seems to be getting pushed further out of the inland towards the coast.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (07/12/2018 10:12)

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#1478705 - 07/12/2018 10:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3321
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Im hoping I'm abit worried that theres still alot of uncertainty. Models all over the place.

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#1478746 - 07/12/2018 19:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 468
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Tonight's EC has this crazy scenario of Ex-Owen going from coral sea towards the top end of NT then tranversing QLD towards the SE coast in 10 days time.

Probably depends how that massive cutoff low over SE Australia decides what it's going to play out. Should be a lot more moisture available for it to play especially if it interacts the moisture left over from Ex-Owen.


Edited by Squeako_88 (07/12/2018 19:03)
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1478750 - 07/12/2018 19:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1334
Loc: toowoomba
Would'nt that scenario if it was to come off be a very nice xmas present for nearly all qld.Trouble is GFS latest is nothing like EC.Waiting on latest Access.

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#1478751 - 07/12/2018 19:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gee, wouldnt that EC make a nice christmas present. One can only dream.

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#1478767 - 07/12/2018 22:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2275
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Tonight's EC has this crazy scenario of Ex-Owen going from coral sea towards the top end of NT then tranversing QLD towards the SE coast in 10 days time.

Probably depends how that massive cutoff low over SE Australia decides what it's going to play out. Should be a lot more moisture available for it to play especially if it interacts the moisture left over from Ex-Owen.


It looks like ex-Owen gets sucked back across QLD by the cut-off low down south before becoming the dominant low as it exits through SE QLD at 984 hpa (wtf). Funny thing is that it's not outside the realm of possibility. That cut-off low has been creating low pressure over eastern Aus and dragging down lots of tropical moisture in the past runs on multiple models.

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#1478783 - 08/12/2018 08:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
plucka99 Online   content
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/09/2018
Posts: 30
...


Edited by Seabreeze (12/12/2018 18:11)
Edit Reason: trolling

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#1478785 - 08/12/2018 09:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5591
Originally Posted By: plucka99
So BOM has forecast the next 7 days between 40-60% chance of rain every day. How often does it actually rain when BOM forecast 50% chance, about 10% from my observations. Lets test this theory and come back in a weeks time and see how many days it has actually rained.

Are you actually interested in the weather itself?


Edited by Ken Kato (08/12/2018 09:01)

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#1478788 - 08/12/2018 09:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: plucka99]
Timbuck Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 232
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast

Seriously plukka ?? You really need to go outside and enjoy the weather this is becoming a problem for you. There is way more to life mate than just letting forcast eat you from the inside out.


Lovely cool , full cloud with the occasional shower morning here on the GC , early morning kayak fish and now having a coffee watching the world go buy trying to delay the reality of going home to work.
Sure an interesting few weeks coming up , see what the Christmas weather has install for the east coast.

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#1478789 - 08/12/2018 09:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4836
Loc: Wynnum
DATE..7 DEC 2018 TIME..0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... ESE 18kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1021.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, distant rain.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......25.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....19.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 39kph at 1639
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY...Slight evening showers, slight early morning rain - no rain recorded.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1478790 - 08/12/2018 09:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2850
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Just ignore them Ken. They’re wasting your time.

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#1478792 - 08/12/2018 09:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1234
Loc: Toowoomba
As I said before those battling drought must shake their heads in dismay about these discussions. Hoping for a good drenching before the end of the month.

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