Page 1 of 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >
Topic Options
#1478831 - 08/12/2018 18:37 Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is excited, ....so naturally Petros is too!:



"IF" this comes off (IMO its credible)........ huge impact on the potential fire season for Gippsland and milk production for Vic consumers (could extend the tail end of the peak Gippsland milk season).


Edited by Petros (08/12/2018 18:44)

Top
#1478835 - 08/12/2018 18:52 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread p 👍

Yep hard not to get excited about the above
Charts lol some serious rainfall totals and flooding
U would think if that came off!
Would alleviate fire risk until January Id say

Top
#1478836 - 08/12/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep - as we both know ....."IF"

Top
#1478856 - 08/12/2018 22:16 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 799
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
I reallllllllllly hope this thread doesn't become meaningless like our last one did when the system moved to Sydney poke

Top
#1478870 - 09/12/2018 00:43 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2859
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Next trough to low pressure is best receipt last longer is cut off cold pool combined upper trough mix cool to warm spin up few days is SW winds in WEST and NE winds in East and stable in center Victoria.

Top
#1479107 - 10/12/2018 10:08 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 799
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Wow Access-G just got on board in a big way for Thursday!


Top
#1479129 - 10/12/2018 12:14 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, and very unusual to see close consensus with EC, GFS and CMC smile

Top
#1479140 - 10/12/2018 13:50 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2859
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Last summer we had this kind of Deep low as BOM failed saying heavy rain to Media as only hit East Victoria flooding Euroa.

This week BOM can say Flooding likely most Victoria.

Top
#1479146 - 10/12/2018 14:45 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2859
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victoria turn to green State.

Top
#1479149 - 10/12/2018 15:19 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Latest Model runs event totals

GFS



EC



ACCESS



Right now looking at min of 30mm+ statewide with widespread falls around 50mm and isolated up to 100mm. Many Victorian stations will see 1 1/2 months worth of rain in 48 hours.


Edited by logansi (10/12/2018 15:20)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1479163 - 10/12/2018 16:06 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 799
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Nice consensus indeed smile Exciting!

Top
#1479183 - 10/12/2018 17:23 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2859
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom weather will be very nervous when right time tell public media of heavy rain and flooding coming. They must tell public early so more time get ready who lives near any rivers or dry bed creeks.

Top
#1479273 - 11/12/2018 07:14 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 197
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
https://www.news.com.au/technology/envir...7a1fd0fe71805df

A drought year and the media demonise a significant rain event in the south east and in FNQ.

Simply not worth reading.

Top
#1479285 - 11/12/2018 09:21 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6455
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC "down" to 30mm for the event at my place on 12z run. First model to back off a little. Still has more than 50mm for Melbourne. Models still a bit wobbly on low placement from run to run and model to model.

Quite a bit of difference between models around the onset of the event tomorrow arvo or night.

Waiting for todays 00z run but at this stage disappointed if the event/sequence total at my place is less than 35mm. Somewhere in NSW or VIC or perhaps multiple places will see some very high totals.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1479291 - 11/12/2018 09:41 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 799
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
I think rain totals will change with each run and each model, such is the dependency on the low positioning. Which model nailed the recent low the best?

Top
#1479295 - 11/12/2018 09:52 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah models can't really pin point the heaviest falls because they are changing the position of the low with every run. Anyway here is the latest even totals:

ACCESS



GFS



EC

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1479328 - 11/12/2018 13:34 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 799
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Jeaz that GFS Scenario would throw up some serious flash flooding situations across the Metro suburbs if that came off.

[EDIT] Just realised it wasn't a 24hr total. lol


Edited by balmz (11/12/2018 13:37)

Top
#1479337 - 11/12/2018 14:29 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: balmz]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: balmz
Jeaz that GFS Scenario would throw up some serious flash flooding situations across the Metro suburbs if that came off.

[EDIT] Just realised it wasn't a 24hr total. lol


Its an event total but the 24hr total is close to 85mm for Thursday with most of that falling between 6am and 12. But as with all model updates right now I expect the 00z update to have something else.


Edited by logansi (11/12/2018 14:29)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1479340 - 11/12/2018 15:13 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6455
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
72 hr ACC has 60-80mm in the 24 hours to Friday 11am for city and inner west burbs.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1479341 - 11/12/2018 15:25 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
How strange is this - Thursday 13th and Friday 14th could see Melbourne Airport pick up 80mm, the last time Melbourne Airport picked up 80mm+ over 2 days? December 13th and 14th 2008, 10 years ago to the day. Many other stations saw 30-40mm across those 2 days. I remember it because it was the last rain of any significance anyone would get until Feb 7 2009.

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

Top
Page 1 of 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >


Moderator:  Lindsay Knowles, stormygirl 
Who's Online
1 registered (Stormy3), 43 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Darkhazord, looselipslou, nodswollef, stormspinner1, WayneM, woodburn (Gail)
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24167 Topics
1527312 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image